Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page Topic
2 Methodology
3 Key Findings
13 Cross-tabulation Report
METHODOLOGY
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a live operator telephone survey of likely August 2018 Democratic Primary voters. The 400
sample survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. 60% of respondents were contacted by landline
telephone. 40% of respondents were contacted by cell phone telephone. Data was collected from April 20-22, 2018. This survey
was commissioned by the Greater Detroit Regional Chamber PAC.
NOTE: THIS SURVEY REPORT IS AN ABBREVIATED SURVEY REPORT. QUESTIONS 11-20 WHICH FOLLOW THE
POLITICAL QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD FOR RELEASE. THESE QUESTIONS WHICH DO NOT APPLY TO THE
POLITICAL RACE WILL BE RELEASED IN THEIR ENTIRELY PRIOR TO THE MACKINAC CONFERENCE.
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KEY FINDINGS
• 89.0% of Democratic primary voters have an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump. 3.3% of primary voters have a
favorable impression. 7.0% have no opinion.
• By a margin of 5.8%-90.1%, Democratic primary voters disapprove of the performance of Donald Trump.
• The chart below compares the name identification for the four Democratic candidates for Governor.
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Gubernatorial Head to Head
• Democratic primary voters were asked who they support in the Democratic primary for Governor:
• Among the 79.3% of respondents who said they were definitely voting:
• Shri Thanedar leads Gretchen Whitmer in Metro Detroit by a margin of 32.1%-23.8%. Gretchen Whitmer leads Shri Thanedar
in out-state Michigan by a margin of 30.0%-25.6%.
• Thanedar’s lead is built on the City of Detroit where he has 69% name identification compared to Whitmer’s 35% name
identification. In the remainder of Wayne County Thanedar has 83% name identification while Whitmer has only 50.0% name
identification.
▪ Among City of Detroit Democratic primary voters, Thanedar leads Whitmer 36.7% to 8.2%.
▪ Among the Wayne County (non Detroit) primary voters, Thandear leads Whitmer 38.4%-23.3%.
▪ Whitmer holds a narrow 22.0%-19.5% lead in Oakland County.
▪ Whitmer holds a lead of 41.7%-19.5% in Macomb County.
• Whitmer and Thenadar are tied among Clinton supporters with Whitmer at 30.9% to Thenadar at 30.4%. Abdul El-Sayed has
3.9%.
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• Thenadar holds a narrow lead among Sanders supporters with 29.7% compared to Whitmer’s 23.9
%. Abdul El-Sayed has 9.8% among Sanders supporters.
• Among black voters, Shri Thenadar has 69.0% name identification compared to Whitmer’s 34.5% name identification.
Thenadar holds a strong lead over Whitmer of 38.7%-14.3% among black voters.
• Among white voters, Shri Thenadar has 78.4% name identification compared to Whitmer’s 61.8% name identification.
Whitmer holds a lead of 32.0%-26.2% among white voters.
• Thenadar’s television advertising is having a significant effect on the race. Thenadar holds a large lead over Whitmer among
Democratic voters that get their news primarily by television while Whitmer holds holds a large lead among those Democratic
voters that get their news by radio and newspaper.
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MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY SURVEY
Hello, my name is _____________. I’m not selling anything. I’m doing a short survey of opinions in our community. It should take
about six minutes.
B. Generally speaking, would you say that in primary elections you tend to vote mostly in Democratic Primary Elections,
Republican Primary Elections, switch between both party’s primary elections or would you say you generally do not vote in
Primary elections?
C. On August 7th, Michigan voters will go to the polls to select nominees for Governor and US Senate, would you say you will be
voting in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or would you say you will not vote in the primary election?
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1. And would you say you will definitely be voting in the August 7th Democratic primary, probably be voting in the Democratic
primary, or probably not be voting in the primary election?
2. And what county do you currently live in? IF WAYNE, ASK: AND WOULD THAT BE IN THE CITY OF DETROIT OR
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY OF DETROIT?
3. CODE:
1. Out state (UP/North, West, Southwest, Mid, East Central) 40.0% (160)
2. Metro (Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Remainder of MSA) 60.0% (240)
I am going to read you a list of names. For each name that I read, please tell me if you recognize that person. If you do recognize
that name, tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. The first name is [ROTATE QUESTIONS 7-10 ]
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4. Donald Trump NAME ID: 99.2%
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8. Gretchen Whitmer NAME ID: 53.7%
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
10. Thinking ahead to the August 7th Democratic primary for Governor, if the election were held today and the candidates were
[ROTATE NAMES: Bill Cobbs, Abdul El-Sayed, Shri Thanedar, and Gretchen Whitmer] which candidate would you vote
for to be the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
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Now just a few questions for statistical purposes.
21. Did you consider yourself more a supporter of Hillary Clinton or did you consider yourself more a supporter of Bernie
Sanders?
22. And do you consider yourself a moderate Democrat or would you call yourself a liberal Democrat?
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25. And what is your race or ethnic background?
26. Do you or any other member of your household belong to a labor union or a teachers’ association?
27. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
28. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how excited are you to vote in the August 7th
primary? You can choose any number between one and ten.
SCORE: 7.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DK/ Ref
5.5% 1.8% 4.8% 2.5% 17.8% 6.0% 10.3% 12.0% 5.8% 33.0% 0.8%
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29. GENDER
30. TELEPHONE
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4. Donald Trump
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5. Bill Cobbs
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6. Abdul El-Sayed
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7. Shri Thanedar
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8. Gretchen Whitmer
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9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President of the United States? ASK: WOULD
THAT BE STRONGLY APPROVE/DISAPPROVE OR JUST SOMEWHAT APPROVE/DISAPPROVE?
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10. Thinking ahead to the August 7th Democratic primary for Governor, if the election were held today and the candidates were
[ROTATE NAMES: Bill Cobbs, Abdul El-Sayed, Shri Thanedar, and Gretchen Whitmer] which candidate would you vote
for to be the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan? IF DON’T KNOW, ASK: WHICH WAY DO YOU LEAN?
Definitely 1.9% 0.6% 4.1% 2.5% 27.8% 4.1% 22.4% 5.0% 31.2%
Probably 1.2% 2.4% 3.6% 2.4% 18.1% 2.4% 16.9% 4.8% 48.2%
Clinton 2.2% 0.6% 2.8% 1.1% 27.6% 2.8% 25.4% 5.5% 32.0%
Sanders 1.1% 1.1% 5.4% 2.7% 25.5% 4.3% 19.6% 4.3% 35.3%
Moderate 2.7% 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 25.8% 3.1% 20.0% 5.8% 36.9%
Liberal 0.7% 1.4% 6.3% 3.5% 26.1% 2.8% 25.4% 4.9% 28.9%
White 1.5% 1.2% 5.0% 2.7% 24.3% 1.9% 25.1% 6.9% 30.9%
Black 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 2.5% 32.8% 5.9% 12.6% 1.7% 41.2%
Male 1.1% 1.1% 4.9% 2.7% 25.0% 2.7% 22.8% 7.1% 32.1%
Female 2.3% 0.9% 3.2% 2.3% 26.4% 4.6% 19.9% 3.2% 37.0%
Union 1.5% 0.8% 3.1% 2.3% 30.0% 1.5% 26.9% 3.1% 30.8%
Non Union 1.9% 1.1% 4.2% 2.6% 23.4% 4.9% 18.9% 6.0% 36.6%
Local TV 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 29.9% 4.5% 11.9% 1.5% 46.3%
Cable 2.7% 0.9% 1.8% 4.5% 32.4% 4.5% 12.6% 8.1% 32.4%
Networks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.4% 5.9% 17.6% 2.9% 41.2%
Radio 2.7% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 13.5% 2.7% 29.7% 5.4% 35.1%
Newspapers 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 19.4% 4.5% 34.3% 3.0% 32.8%
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21. Did you consider yourself more a supporter of Hillary Clinton or did you consider yourself more a supporter of Bernie
Sanders?
Clinton Sanders
Out 44.4% 48.1%
Metro 45.8% 44.6%
Clinton
Sanders
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27. And where would you say you primarily get your POLITICAL news?
Local TV
Cable
Networks
Radio
Newspapers
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28. And on a scale of one to ten, with one being very low and ten being very high, how excited are you to vote in the August 7th
primary? You can choose any number between one and ten.
SCORE
Out 7.1
Metro 7.1
Definitely 7.3
Probably 6.4
Clinton 7.3
Sanders 7.1
Moderate 7.0
Liberal 7.4
White 7.2
Black 6.9
Male 7.2
Female 7.1
Union 7.3
Non Union 7.0
Local TV 6.6
Cable 7.0
Networks 7.7
Radio 7.8
Newspapers 7.6
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