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RESULT UPDATE
SUPREME INDUSTRIES
Margin surprises positively
India Equity Research| Miscellaneous
Supreme Industries’ (SIL) Q4FY18 revenue, at INR14.7bn, stood largely in EDELWEISS RATINGS
line with our estimates led by the 8% volume surge. Volumes grew across Absolute Rating BUY
segments, except the packaging division where volumes declined 3% YoY Investment Characteristics Growth
mainly on account of capacity constraints. Industrial and consumers
reported highest volume growth of 17% YoY each. EBITDA margin surged
80bps YoY to 19.5%, led by margin expansion in piping and consumer MARKET DATA (R: SUPI.BO, B: SI IN)
segments resulting in EBITDA growth of 19.5% YoY to INR2.87bn, which CMP : INR 1,309
surpassed our estimate of INR2.6bn. SIL is confident of achieving 12% Target Price : INR 1,361
volume growth going ahead with margins of 15.5‐16%. We envisage the 52‐week range (INR) : 1,490 / 1,018
shift from unorganised to organised segments and capacity expansion to Share in issue (mn) : 127.0
fuel SIL’s future growth. Maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR1,361. M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 166 / 2,359
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) : 91.9
Q4FY18: Key highlights
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Key positives: (1) 8% YoY volume growth led by 17% growth in industrial and
consumer segments each; (2) overall margin improved by 80bps YoY following revival Current Q3FY18 Q2FY18
in piping margin (up 130bps YoY); and (3) management maintained volume growth
Promoters * 49.7 49.7 49.7
MF's, FI's & BKs 19.1 18.7 18.6
guidance of 12%; Key negatives: (1) packaging division’s volume & revenue fell 3% and
2% YoY, respectively; and (2) margins of industrial segment declined 150bps YoY. FII's 10.3 10.4 10.4
Others 21.0 21.2 21.3
* Promoters pledged shares : NIL
Margin expansion drives profitability (% of share in issue)
Net sale of INR14.7bn was led by 8% YoY volume increase. EBITDA margin increased
80bps YoY to 19.5% led by margin jump in piping and consumer segments. APAT of PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
INR1.78bn was above estimate of INR1.6bn, led by higher operating profit. BSE Midcap
Stock
Stock over
Index Index
Outlook and valuations: Strong margin beat; maintain ‘BUY’ 1 month 5.7 11.3 5.6
3 months (5.9) (1.4) 4.6
We believe SIL will benefit from market share shifting to organised sector from
12 months 13.7 22.9 9.2
unorganised and hence maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR1,361, based on 24x FY20E EPS of
INR54.6 ‐ SIL’s holding in Supreme Petrochem is valued at INR50.5/share and yielding
30% holding discount to its share (30%) in SPL. At CMP, the stock is trading at 31x
FY19E EPS and 24x FY20E core EPS.
Financials (INR mn)
Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % Chg Q3FY18 % Chg FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net revenues 14,713 12,826 14.7 12,783 15.1 49,663 58,328 69,831
EBITDA 2,868 2,399 19.5 1,977 45.0 7,871 9,333 11,662 Rohan Gupta
+91 22 4040 7416
Adjusted Profit 1,783 1,464 21.8 1,042 71.1 4,318 5,296 6,933 rohan.gupta@edelweissfin.com
Adjusted Diluted EPS 14.0 11.5 21.8 8.2 71.1 34.0 41.7 54.6
Sneha Talreja
Diluted P/E (x) 38.3 31.3 23.9 +91 22 4040 7417
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 17.3 13.5 sneha.talreja@edelweissfin.com
ROAE (%) 24.0 25.5 27.7
April 26, 2018
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,
Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited
Miscellaneous
Q4FY18 conference call: Key highlights
Demand: Management highlighted that Q4FY18 volumes jumped 8% led by healthy
volume growth across segments except packaging segment. Packaging segment’s
volumes declined by 3% YoY mainly on account of capacity constraints in packaging
films division and decline in cross laminated films business. Industrial and consumers
reported highest volume growth of 17% YoY each. Management expects the healthy
growth to sustain in FY19 and has thus maintained its annual volume growth guidance
of 12% YoY.
Margin: Q4FY18 EBITDA margin increased primarily led by margin expansion in piping
and consumers businesses. As per management, PVC prices are now recovering and
should come back to normal by next month. Further, this quarter performance was also
supported by inventory gains.
Business outlook: SIL continued to guide for more than 12% volume growth in coming
years with EBITDA margin of 15.5‐16% as it will continue to focus on increasing share of
value‐added products.
GST: Management believes many players have started working in an organised way and
thus there is a clear shift from unorganised to organised segment.
Volume: In Q4FY18, overall volumes jumped 8% YoY led by increase in volumes of
piping, industrial, and consumer segments by 8%, 16.5%, and 17%, respectively.
Packaging division, however, reported volume decline of 3% YoY mainly on account of
capacity constraints in packaging films division and drop in cross laminated films
business.
Revenue growth: Net sales jumped 15% YoY led by 8% growth in volumes, while
realisations remained increased marginally by 2% YoY. Industrial was the fastest
growing segment with revenue growth of 56% YoY, followed by consumer and piping
businesses with 17% and 13% YoY growth respectively. On the other hand, packaging
segment’s revenue declined by 4% YoY.
Operating margin: SIL reported operating margin of 16%, 13%, 22% and 20% in FY18
versus 16%, 22%, 14% and 20% in FY17 in piping, industrial, packaging and consumer
businesses, respectively.
Composite cylinder: SIL is expecting strong growth in this business through major
traction in exports market. The company also believes opportunities remain strong in
domestic market as roughly 50mn cylinders are purchased every year.
Capex: During the year, the company incurred capex of INR2.6bn of the INR4.5bn
planned capex. The balance committed investment is likely to go towards production in
FY19. Management has guided for capex of INR3‐3.5bn in FY19. The company expects
to commission two new green‐field plants in this year ‐ one at Telangana and the other
at Rajasthan. Additional construction of buildings at existing plants and production at
those sites will commence this year at Malanpur, Khopoli, Hosur and Kharagpur. SIL
2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Supreme Industries
also intends to start two new plants at Andhra Pradesh and Assam. Land acquisition
process has started. They may partially go into production next year.
Table 1: Segmentwise volume breakup
(MT) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping 49,714 75,582 70,872 45,266 51,570 67,549 66,149 52,967 64,435 72,779
Industrial 7,660 9,991 9,436 9,023 9,708 10,817 9,979 10,559 11,350 12,600
Packaging 14,566 10,929 11,739 8,299 15,333 12,245 11,469 10,751 15,806 11,905
Consumer 4,667 5,307 4,976 4,206 4,561 5,054 4,584 4,749 5,143 5,909
Table 2: Segmentwise volume growth (YoY)
(%) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping 4.3 26.6 6.1 19.5 3.7 (10.5) (6.7) 17.0 24.9 7.7
Industrial (12.3) (8.5) 1.5 7.9 26.7 8.0 5.8 17.0 16.9 16.5
Packaging 13.5 2.6 (10.6) 6.8 5.3 12.7 (2.3) 29.5 3.1 (2.8)
Consumer 22.9 19.7 3.1 30.3 (2.3) (1.5) (7.9) 12.9 12.8 16.9
Table 3: Segment Revenue
(Mn) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping 4,924 7,118 6,860 4,833 5,619 7,219 6,650 5,670 6,660 7,970
Industrial 1,248 1,505 1,500 1,501 1,449 1,780 1,660 1,850 1,930 2,270
Packaging 3,032 2,225 2,550 1,647 3,163 2,420 2,390 2,150 3,190 2,370
Consumer 739 854 840 714 783 794 810 840 910 920
Table 4: Segmentwise Revenue growth (YoY)
(%) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping 0.1 25.5 (2.3) 20.5 14.1 3.9 (3.1) 17.3 18.5 10.4
Industrial (21.0) (15.0) (2.8) 6.9 16.1 19.1 10.7 23.2 33.2 27.6
Packaging 13.5 2.5 (5.4) 3.9 4.3 17.0 (6.3) 30.5 0.8 (2.0)
Consumer 11.9 16.9 (2.3) 22.2 6.0 (2.9) (3.6) 17.7 16.2 15.9
Table 5: Segmentwise Realization per unit
(INR) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping 99.0 94.2 96.8 106.8 109.0 106.9 100.5 107.0 103.4 109.5
Industrial 162.9 150.6 159.0 166.4 149.3 164.5 166.3 175.2 170.0 180.2
Packaging 208.1 203.6 217.2 198.5 206.3 197.6 208.4 200.0 201.8 199.1
Consumer 158.3 160.8 168.8 169.6 171.7 157.0 176.7 176.9 176.9 155.7
Table 6: Segmentwise Realization per unit growth (%)
(%) Dec'15 March'16 June'16 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 June'17 Sep'17 Dec'17 Mar'18
Piping (4.0) (0.8) (7.9) 0.8 10.0 16.1 3.9 0.3 (5.1) 2.5
Industrial (9.9) (7.1) (4.3) (0.9) (8.4) 10.3 4.6 5.3 13.9 9.5
Packaging 0.1 (0.1) 5.8 (2.7) (0.9) 3.8 (4.1) 0.8 (2.2) 0.7
Consumer (9.0) (2.4) (5.2) (6.3) 8.5 (1.4) 4.7 4.3 3.1 (0.8)
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Miscellaneous
Financial snapshot (INR mn)
Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % change Q3FY18 % change FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net revenues 14,713 12,826 14.7 12,783 15.1 49,663 58,328 69,831
Raw material 9,454 8,373 12.9 8,488 11.4 32,858 38,147 45,390
Staff costs 705 579 21.9 598 18.0 2,419 2,683 3,212
Other expenses 1,686 1,476 14.2 1,721 (2.0) 6,516 8,166 9,567
Total expenditure 11,845 10,427 13.6 10,806 9.6 41,792 48,996 58,169
EBITDA 2,868 2,399 19.5 1,977 45.0 7,871 9,333 11,662
Depreciation 414 412 0.5 428 (3.3) 1,672 1,869 2,020
EBIT 2,454 1,988 23.5 1,550 58.3 6,200 7,463 9,642
Other income 37 26 44.0 5 640.0 48 50 120
Interest 56 34 63.5 79 (28.9) 219 145 77
Add: Prior period items
Profit before tax 2,435 1,979 23.0 1,476 65.0 6,028 7,368 9,685
Provision for taxes 774 724 6.9 518 49.4 2,057 2,505 3,293
Minority interest
Associate profit share 122 209 (41.6) 84 45.1 347 433 542
Profit‐ Discontinued Ops
Exceptional Items
Reported net profit 1,783 1,464 21.8 1,042 71.1 4,318 5,296 6,933
Adjusted Profit 1,783 1,464 21.8 1,042 71.1 4,318 5,296 6,933
Equity capital(FV INR10)
Diluted shares (mn) 127 127 127 127 127 127
Adjusted Diluted EPS 14.0 11.5 21.8 8.2 71.1 34.0 41.7 54.6
Diluted P/E (x) ‐ ‐ ‐ 38.3 31.3 ‐
EV/EBITDA (x) ‐ ‐ ‐ 21.3 17.3 ‐
ROAE (%) ‐ ‐ ‐ 24.0 25.5 27.7
As % of net revenues
Raw material 64.3 65.3 66.4 66.2 65.4 65.0
Employee cost 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.6
Other expenses 11.5 11.5 13.5 13.1 14.0 13.7
EBITDA 19.5 18.7 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.7
Reported net profit 12.1 11.4 8.2 8.7 9.1 9.9
4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Supreme Industries
Company Description
SIL is one of the most prominent plastic manufacturing companies in India, having over 44
years of experience under the current management. It has been consistently increasing
capacity in the plastics processing and has more than 7000 diversified products. It processes
over 0.3 mn metric tonnes of plastic per annum, and has 19 manufacturing locations across
India.
The company’s core operations involve processing polymers and resins into diversified
plastic products spread under four broad categories: industrial products, consumer
products, piping products and packaging products. Over the years, SIL has managed to gain
a significant market share across its product portfolio. It is credited with pioneering various
products including Cross‐ Laminated Films, HMHD Films, Multilayer Films, SWR Piping
Systems, PP Mats etc. The company currently has around 1200 distributors of which 600
distributors are for PVC Pipes, 400 for furniture, 60 for cross laminated films and 140
accounting for others
Investment Theme
Supreme industries, the largest private plastic processing player in India, is poised to be the
biggest beneficiary of shift from metals to plastic and higher GDP growth of India. Supreme
has incurred a capex of close to INR 5bn in last two years (INR2.6bn in F18). Post the capex,
the installed capacity has expanded from 5,43,000 MT pa in FY17 to 5,68,000 MT pa in FY18.
The company further plans to incur INR3‐3.5bn in FY19 that will lead to capacity expansion
by 50,000 tonnes.
The company has a strong balance sheet with the debt to equity at 0.1x in FY18. SIL has
strong operating and free cash flows to fund its capex from internal accruals – a great
comfort factor. Moreover the company’s net working capital cycle stands at around 50 days,
one the best in the industry as it gives cash discounts to customers on early payments as
well as imports raw materials against which it gets a higher credit period. It also has strong
return ratios with ROCE at 31% and ROE at 24% for FY18. Shareholders have been
consistently rewarded with its liberal dividend policy.
Key Risks
The plastic industry is highly fragmented with unorganized players accounting for 60% of the
output and posing a stiff competition to SIL .
Sharp increase in raw material prices of PVC,LDPE,HDPE and delays in passing on the same.
The company has an asset heavy model hence needs to invest continuously in the business
to sustain growth. Any delay in expansion plans can affect the turnover of the business as
the same has been factored in our model.
Unavailability of skilled labour might hurt the capacity utilization of one or many plants
there by affecting the turnover and performance.
The plastic industry has been growing in range of 1.8x‐2x GDP growth rate of India.Hence
any slowdown in GDP growth of the country might affect the topline of the company.
5 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Miscellaneous
Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Macro Net revenue 44,623 49,663 58,328 69,831
GDP(Y‐o‐Y %) 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 Materials costs 28,917 32,858 38,147 45,390
Inflation (Avg) 4.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 Gross profit 15,706 16,805 20,182 24,441
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 Employee costs 2,117 2,419 2,683 3,212
USD/INR (Avg) 67.1 64.5 65.0 66.0 Other Expenses 5,970 6,516 8,166 9,567
Company Total operating expenses 37,004 41,792 48,996 58,169
Segment wise rev growth% EBITDA 7,619 7,871 9,333 11,662
Industrial 49.9 23.8 17.3 17.3 Depreciation 1,543 1,672 1,869 2,020
Consumer 44.0 11.2 14.2 17.3 EBIT 6,076 6,200 7,463 9,642
Packging 43.3 3.3 17.3 20.9 Add: Other income 51.3 47.5 50.00 120.00
Pipes 52.8 9.9 20.4 20.9 Less: Interest Expense 303 219 145 77
Revenue break up(INR mn) Profit Before Tax 5,825 6,028 7,368 9,685
Industrial Products 6,230 7,710 9,044 10,608 Less: Provision for Tax 2,058 2,057 2,505 3,293
Consumer Products 3,130 3,480 3,976 4,663 Associate profit share 537 347 433 542
Packaging Products 9,780 10,100 11,847 14,320 Reported Profit 4,304 4,318 5,296 6,933
Plastic Piping 24,530 26,950 32,437 39,207 Adjusted Profit 4,304 4,318 5,296 6,933
Capex (INR mn) 1,740 2,604 3,000 3,000 Shares o /s (mn) 127 127 127 127
Financial assumptions Adjusted Basic EPS 33.9 34.0 41.7 54.6
Cash conversion cycle 55 54 42 36 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 127 127 127 127
Avg. Interest rate (%) 13.2 9.5 8.0 8.5 Adjusted Diluted EPS 33.9 34.0 41.7 54.6
Depreciation rate (%) 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 Adjusted Cash EPS 46.9 46.9 56.4 70.5
Debtor days 21 24 23 20 Dividend per share (DPS) 15.0 12.0 8.5 8.5
Inventory days 84 82 63 55 Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 53.2 42.6 24.5 18.7
Payable days 50 52 44 39
Tax rate (%) 35.3 34.1 34.0 34.0 Common size metrics
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Operating expenses 18.1 18.0 18.6 18.3
Cost of goods sold 64.8 66.2 65.4 65.0
Depreciation 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.9
EBITDA margins 17.1 15.8 16.0 16.7
Net Profit margins 9.6 8.7 9.1 9.9
Growth ratios (%)
Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Revenues 50.7 11.3 17.4 19.7
EBITDA 65.3 3.3 18.6 25.0
Adjusted Profit 87.9 0.3 22.7 30.9
EPS 87.9 0.3 22.7 30.9
6 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Supreme Industries
Peer comparison valuation
Market cap Diluted P/E (X) EV / EBITDA (X) ROAE (%)
Name (USD mn) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
Supreme Industries 2,359 31.4 24.0 17.4 13.6 25.5 27.7
Sintex Industries Ltd 158 3.1 2.1 6.7 5.2 7.4 10.2
Median ‐ 17.3 13.0 12.0 9.4 16.5 18.9
AVERAGE ‐ 17.3 13.0 12.0 9.4 16.5 18.9
Source: Edelweiss research
7 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Miscellaneous
Additional Data
Directors Data
B. L. Taparia Chairman M. P. Taparia Managing Director
S. J. Taparia Executive Director V. K. Taparia Executive Director
B. V. Bhargava Director N. N. Khandwala Director
Y. P. Trivedi Director R. Kannan Director
R. M. Pandia Director Smt. Rashna Khan Director
Auditors ‐ Lodha & Co.
*as per last available data
Holding – Top10
Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
Boon investment & tr 15.91 Jovial invest & trad 15.68
Venktesh invest & tr 15.5 Nalanda india fund l 6.44
Jpmorgan chase & co 3.61 Capital group compan 3.57
Hdfc asset managemen 1.84 Axis asset managemen 1.8
Dsp blackrock invest 1.66 Matthews intl capita 1.11
*as per last available data
Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
10 Apr 2018 Smallcap World Fund Inc Sell 1799545 1205.00
*as per last available data
Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded
23 May 2017 SUPREME VILLA PRIVATE LIMITED Buy 1272171.00
*as per last available data
8 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Supreme Industries
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91‐22) 4009 4400, Email: research@edelweissfin.com
ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
Aditya Narain ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f20
bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20,
Head of Research
NARAIN
postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e0c89
e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com st=Maharashtra
Date: 2018.04.26 21:33:26 +05'30'
Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Miscellaneous
AIA Engineering, Apar Industries Ltd, Aarti Industries, Agro Tech Foods, Balkrishna Industries, CCL Products India, Essel Propack, Orient Refractories,
Supreme Industries, Solar Industries, SRF, Vesuvius India, VIP Industries
`
Recent Research
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
12‐Apr‐18 AIA Strong volume visibility; 1,418 Buy
Engineering Visit Note
05‐Apr‐18 Balkrishna Bhuj: Reinforces competitive 1,178 Buy
Industries positioning;
Visit Note
20‐Feb‐18 Vesuvius Domestic demand drives 1,355 Buy
India growth;
Result Update
Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap
Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation
Rating Expected to
Buy Hold Reduce Total
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12‐month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12‐month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12‐month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
One year price chart
1,600
1,400
1,200
(INR)
1,000
800
600
Dec‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Apr‐17
Apr‐18
May‐17
Nov‐17
Sep‐17
Jan‐18
Feb‐18
Jun‐17
Mar‐18
Jul‐17
Supreme Industries
9 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Miscellaneous
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10 Edelweiss Securities Limited
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