DATA PROCESSING

In the problem as obtained from the project report of Uduthorehalla reservoir project, only 26 years
inflow data are available but the economic life of reservoir is about 50 years. The extra pattern of
flow during this historical period is extremely unlikely to reoccur during that period in which
proposed reservoir will be operative. Further, the present values of high flow , low flows and other
characteristics of record may not likely be maintained during the economic life of system. The worst
flood or drought in the given data may not be worst possible flood or drought. Over and above these
hydrological data alone cannot give the amount of risk involved because of which hydrological
operation is considered to be more effective. Now the planner is in a position to generate longer
duration of storm flows which are neither actual historical records nor prediction of future flows.
Those are only close enough to possible historical records retaining all the possible statistical
properties.

Modern electronic computers with super speed of computation now come to the aid and make the
field of operation hydrology more effective. The generation of stream flow data for a desired longer
duration which involve laborious process of computations can now easily be computed with it in the
shortest possible time.

GENERATION OF DATA BY THOMAS AND FIERING MODEL APPROACH

The most appropriate practical model is proposed by Thomas and Fiering , particularly with respect
to generating monthly sequential stream flows. This is also called first order stationary Markov
model.

The algorithm for the Thomas and Fiering seasonal model is as follows :

Qi+1= Qj+1 + Bj (Qi - Qj) + ti Sj+1 (1-r2) 1/2

Where
Qi+1 Qi are generated flows during a season from start of synthesized sequences
Qj+1 Qj are mean flows within a repetitive annual cycle of season
Bj = rj*sj+1 /sj
ti is the normal random variate with zero mean and unit variance
Sj+1 , Sj are the standard deviation of flow during the j+1 and jth season
rj is correlation coefficient between flows in jth and j+1th period
The above model is restricted to normally distributed flows and ti is considered to be normal
random variate.
PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS :
The model consists of two components: a deterministic or correlation component
[Qj+1+Bj(Qi-Qj)] and a random component [ti Sj+1(1-rJ2)1/2].The model is purely random if the
first term is zero.
To use the model computation of mean, standard deviation and serial correlation of the
historical flows are necessary. Assume that the flows are normally distributed.
The normal random variate is generated by an appropriate routine which is available for all
computers.
The model may generate negative flows. When this occurs, the negative value is used to
calculate the next flow after which it is set to zero.