Technology’s Rapid Progress 1

Running Head: TECHNOLOGY’S RAPID PROGRESS

The Future is Still Bright: Technology’s Rapid Progress

Chloe H. Iurillo

Glen Allen High School

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Introduction

Evolution in technology dates back to prehistoric times, with the innate human tendency

to advance resulting in constant innovation. As humankind has evolved and continued to grow,

technology has been created and implemented to fit the newfound needs and desires of society.

However, over the past century, the rate at which technology has advanced has been exponential,

with nearly every facet of human society being altered in some way due to this growth. Rapid

changes are being made in fields anywhere from basic transportation to artificial intelligence.

When the amount of progress technology has made in the past century numerically is layed out,

the result is shocking and unsettling to many. Because so much of this advancement is new and

unfamiliar, a discrepancy has formed between those who see this growth as a positive, and those

who see it as harmful. This debate has ultimately left the question of whether today’s rapid

technological growth will prove truly beneficial or detrimental, up for interpretation. However,

extensive data and findings demonstrate that the overall consensus by most experts in the field

determine that as a society, we are moving in the right direction.

History and Concepts

While technology has consistently been evolving for as long as humans have lived,

several concepts and predictions accompany the recent exponential growth. Perhaps one of the

most widely accepted and anticipated concepts relating to technological growth is that of

Moore’s Law. In Cusumano and Yoffie’s Extrapolating from Moore’s Law (2016), the topic of

Moore’s Law is explored, as well as its continued influence in various technology companies

today. Cusumano and Yoffie briefly explain the idea behind Moore’s Law created in the 1960’s,

which predicted an exponential growth in technology to occur, mainly due to a doubling in

“transistors” every “18 to 24 months” (Cusumano & Yoffie, 2016). On a more basic level,
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Moore’s Law provides a guideline for the exponential technological growth once predicted, and

now beginning to occur within society. With Moore’s Law in mind, founders at Intel, Microsoft,

and Apple have all applied this logic to their companies, with Intel continuing to constantly

embellish and add to their processing systems, Microsoft choosing to focus more on software

than hardware, and Apple becoming inspired to stick to simple products that would appeal to

constant updating (Cusumano & Yoffie, 2016). While Moore’s Law was once perceived only as

futuristic and outlandish prediction, these major companies applying the logic to their strategies

demonstrate the validity of it (Cusumano & Yoffie, 2016). Ultimately, Moore’s Law is crucial to

understanding the exponential growth society is experiencing today. Not only can the veracity of

Moore’s Law now be observed in modern society, its implications are also beginning to be

discovered.

Furthermore, another theorized concept on the topic of technology’s growth is that of

dematerialization. In the article Dematerialization (1990), Herman, Ardekani, and Ausubel

provide a unique stance on the concept of dematerialization, defining it as “the decline over time

in weight of the materials used” in industrial products. The main shift towards dematerialization

stems from the transition to electronics, which has occurred rapidly since the adoption of

smartphones and laptops (Herman et. al, 1990). With modern society often looking through the

lens of quantity over quality, this concept may seem foreign to the average consumer. However,

the environmental and economic impacts of the trend of less equals more could truly affect the

ways in which humans continue to live (Herman et. al, 1990). Significant reductions in pollution

and consumption are expected to occur as well (Herman et. al, 1990). In such a consumption-

driven world, the idea of an extreme reduction seems unusual to many, but the amount of outlets

that will be opened up due to dematerialization severely compensates for that notion. With a
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closer look at consumer reaction, quantity, and a correlation with wealth, it is clear that the shift

towards dematerialization will prove beneficial, as the growth of advanced materials increases.

(Herman et. al, 1990).

Transportation

A concept that thoroughly exemplifies technology’s rapid growth is that of transportation,

with personal vehicles being seen as a luxury to few less than a century ago, yet now a staple in

almost every American home. The idea of driverless cars, once viewed as a fantasy, is now

beginning to seem like a reality in the not so distant future. An investigation into the logistics and

implications of self-driving cars, ultimately highlights the benefits of this transition. With

predictions such as less casualties due to accidents, freedom for those physically or mentally

impaired, environmental impacts, and many others, a compelling and persuasive argument can

be made in favor of driverless vehicles (Duranton, 2016). Not only are autonomous cars expected

to become a part of daily life, various other companies are beginning to suggest that on-demand

car services such as Uber will eventually become the primary form of transportation for many

people who currently travel by personal vehicle (Duranton, 2016). Though the idea of turning

over a great deal of control to automated machinery may seem like a step in the wrong direction,

in reality, the time and energy saved by this process will allow for greater human autonomy in

other areas of interest. Additionally, one of the largest wastes of human time is that spent behind

the wheel, with the average person spending 90 minutes traveling daily (Duranton, 2016).

However, the transition to driverless cars is expected to streamline the transportation process

enough to considerably reduce this excess time.

Furthermore, current self-driving vehicles in production, and their expected outcomes,

can also be investigated. One of the current projects being worked on is Google’s Waymo, a
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driverless car that has “already logged the equivalent of 300 years” of driving, and is expected to

free time and make roadways safer (Marr, 2017). While a common human fear is the actual

application and implementation of these driverless cars, as well as their safety, the sheer number

of hours and tests going into the production of these vehicles suggest an easy and seamless

transition. In a more commercial realm, “potential drone air taxi[s]” are beginning to be tested, as

well as Amazon’s plan to use “unmanned aerial vehicles” to deliver products in less than 30

minutes (Marr, 2017). This further emphasizes the extreme effects on everyday life these

changes in transportation may cause, all changes that will generally improve productivity and

allow for more time to be spent doing other things (Marr, 2017). Ultimately, these findings

culminate into the argument that these advancements will save time and effort and benefit

society as a whole.

Finally, Self-Driving Cars looks into the future of driverless cars on a closer timeframe in

(2017). While the development of self-driving cars is becoming prevalent everywhere, Asia and

the United States are likely to make the biggest contributions, and not too distant in the future

(Medasani et. al, 2017). While it may not seem like it, vehicle automation is already being

implemented into most everyday vehicles, with features such as blind-spot warnings and lane-

change assistance (Medasani et. al, 2017). The reality is, as these functions continue to increase

in savviness, driverless cars become the inevitable next step. Furthermore, Marr discusses how

“Level 2 systems” which are partially automation and partially human controlled are already

available from many companies (Medasani et. al, 2017). Yet “Level 3 systems”, which are

almost entirely automated, are still being developed for human use (Medasani et. al, 2017). This

progression indicates that the transition towards self-driving cars will eventually be rapid and

seamless. Additionally, human concern over self-driving cars can be further proved unnecessary
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as these cars are being developed in a way that is safe, and the benefits far outweigh any

negatives.

Healthcare

As technology continues to advance in almost every facet of society, the healthcare field

is no exception. In fact, the medical field specifically is facing exponential growth, with new

discoveries being made constantly. Perhaps one of the most significant and relevant advances in

this field is that of robotic surgery. Specifically focusing on laparoscopic procedures and their

increased success rate, various studies and investigations have found that these procedures result

in “short hospital stays” and “lower risks of infection” (Barbash & Glied, 2010). However, these

procedures often come with a much higher price tag as well (Barbash & Glied, 2010). Yet many

experts explain how these extensive benefits for the patients actually makes the cost worth it,

with shorter hospital stays and less likelihood for follow-ups (Barbash & Glied, 2010).

Additionally, while most robotic surgeries currently being performed are in close partnership

between the surgeon and the robot, predictions of fully automated procedures are increasing,

though only for certain types of surgeries, as most will remain conventional for years to come

(Barbash & Glied, 2010). The benefits of this transition to robotic surgeries are clear, primarily

in terms of success rate and efficiency, demonstrating the necessity, despite the cost.

Furthermore, significant advancements in the genetic field are on track to completely

alter the current way diseases are approached. Scientists at MIT and Harvard are currently

working to perfect the CRISPR DNA-editing tool, with the goal of being able to cure normally

incurable diseases through the alteration of genes (Mullin, 2017). The method behind this idea

involves the precise editing of a letter of DNA structure, allowing for mutations to be replaced

without harming the DNA itself (Mullin, 2017). This process is expected to be able to apply to
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roughly half of the 32,000 known mutations for disease (Mullin, 2017). While gene editing is

still a fairly new concept, and yet to be socially accepted by everyone, the clear benefits due to

these discoveries have the potential to save many lives. Additionally, similar technologies have

already been implemented in humans in China, with researchers citing a successful removal of

an anemia mutation in an embryo (Mullin, 2017). This technology is also expected to be

primarily useful for the treatment of blood and brain disorders, as well as hereditary conditions

such as deafness and blindness (Mullin, 2017). Although the concept seems quite futuristic, the

implementation into society will most likely come soon, and the various benefits this technology

provides will become prevalent.

Additional advancement into the human genome allows for predictions for improvements

in human longevity as well. The original geneticist to map the first human genome, J. Craig

Venter, has continued his studies and now plans to use further knowledge collected about genes

to “stay ahead of aging and illness” (Crouse, 2018). Human life expectancy has gradually

increased in time as consistent medical advances have continued to be made, yet new findings in

the world of genetics could possibly make the idea of living into triple digits a reality for more

and more people. The basic idea behind Venter’s latest research is to use genome mapping to

detect diseases earlier in life, allowing for earlier prevention and treatment (Crouse, 2018). While

current genome mapping done through processes like these often cost thousands of dollars, as

technology continues to advance, it is likely to cost will begin to come down, and the mapping of

one’s genes will become greater commonplace in human society, leading to earlier detection of a

multitude of diseases (Crouse, 2018). Though the idea of genome mapping may still be perceived

as strange and unnatural to many, the immense benefits and lives it can save will eventually

justify and calm any concerns.

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Artificial Intelligence

Perhaps one of the most controversial technological advancements is that of artificial

intelligence. One of the main concepts examined in the field of artificial intelligence is that of the

idea of “singularity”, exemplified by IBM’s Watson, and the notion that technology and artificial

“superintelligence” will increase and improve so much that human society will change

dramatically (“Artificial Intelligence”, 2011). Ultimately, many scientists predict that with the

advancement of artificial intelligence, problems previously unsolvable such as poverty, cures for

diseases, and extreme scientific advances will be fixable (“Artificial Intelligence”, 2011).

Additionally, predictions relating to artificial intelligence include the ability to go beyond

human capabilities, everywhere from “cancer” to “climate change” (“Artificial Intelligence”,

2011). While these advancements remain startling for a large portion of the population, an

abundance of information supports that overall, these changes will be beneficial to society.

Though many experts in the field openly express the ability for this same technology to also have

potential dangers, the common consensus remains that with correct guidance, any detrimental

effects are unlikely.

Two of the biggest advancements in the field of artificial intelligence have been in

perception and cognition. While AI is often thought of in extremely futuristic ways, many of the

current capabilities in phones and laptops contain the workings of artificial intelligence. For

example, the increase in voice recognition systems such as Siri and Amazon’s Alexa is

exemplified in the millions of people relying on those tools on an everyday basis (Brynjolfsson

& Mcafee, 2017). Whereas these functions used to be slow and inaccurate, studies today suggest

that speech recognition is about three times as fast as typing on a phone (Brynjolfsson & Mcafee,

2017). Not only is voice recognition advancing, but so is that of image recognition, with many
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businesses now relying on it as the main source of identification in the corporation (Brynjolfsson

& Mcafee, 2017). Furthermore, the progress in cognitive abilities of AI is truly exponential.

These machines are now easily beating experts in their fields in tests and games, as well as

increasing the efficiency of these jobs as well (Brynjolfsson & Mcafee, 2017). However, these

cognitive abilities are rarely seen as replacements, but rather tools to open up new possibilities

for “transforming the workplace and the economy” (Brynjolfsson & Mcafee, 2017). The future

of artificial intelligence is clearly very bright, and has the potential to affect current society

immensely.

Additionally, further investigation of IBM’s Watson reveals the unlimited potential of AI

machines. Experts note that “understanding cancer is beyond a human being’s ability” yet since

Watson demonstrates the ability to possibly understand and learn it, these same experts pose the

question: “Why not use it?” (Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). Perhaps one of the most

fundamental attributes of AI systems is that they should be seen as tools rather than replacements

for human skills (Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). As Watson continues to advance in skills such

as diagnosing diseases, this allows for actual doctors to focus more on their relationship with

patients (Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). Although Watson’s current abilities may appear to

surpass many human skills, the reality is that these traits are dependent on continued human

involvement and personal advancement. Additionally, another topic of exploration is the contrast

between anxiety and ambition that this advancement causes, and how this ultimately “lock[s]”

society, as the sooner humans can embrace this change, the more obvious it will become that it is

a positive (Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). Though this concern is justified, the benefits of these

advancements clearly outweigh any doubts on the importance of this technology. In fact, though
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a common concern amongst humans that robots will replace them the reality is that robots will

never have the distinct qualities that humanize people.

The Future of Jobs

A common thread of fear amongst this rapid growth is whether or not human work and

skills will become obsolete. However, the most agreed upon consensus when it comes to the fate

of human jobs is that artificial intelligence and other advancements in technology will only

provide the tools to unlock further human potential, and ease some of the everyday struggles of

life (Autor, 2015). As noted by David Autor, “the basic fact is that technology eliminates jobs,

not work”. While the idea of jobs being taken away makes most people uncomfortable, the

simple reality is that with the progression of technology, this step ultimately betters society, and

paves the way for new jobs that are more advanced with the assistance of new technology.

Ultimately, technological growth has been occurring for over two hundred years, yet jobs have

always continued to be available, and labor has always been in demand (Autor, 2015). The

primary reason for this is because automation complements labor rather than destroys it, and

raises productivity and output, which in turn requires a higher demand for labor in other facets

(Autor, 2015). The discrepancy between what automation is described to do in the media and

what it actually does in most commonly due to the overstatements made by journalists and

commentators on the subject (Autor, 2015). However, the sooner that people begin to see that

automation is more likely to improve the quality of labor rather than to completely get rid of it,

the more productive society can begin to be in the face of this new technology.

Conclusion

Due to the nature of technology’s future remaining generally an unknown, relying on

predictions makes many people feel uneasy, as there is no one correct answer. However, experts
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in various fields have made it abundantly clear that in almost area of technological growth, the

change is a positive one. In the transportation field, the shift towards driverless cars has become

inevitable, now resulting in a debate over its practicality. Across almost all sources, the

expectation is that this change will be beneficial, in terms of safety, efficiency, and

environmentally. In the healthcare field, most experts agree that the higher success rate and

lower rate of infection associated by robotic procedures outweighs the higher prices associated

with these operations. Additionally, rapid discoveries being made in the genome field are

allowing for a better understanding of the human DNA, which in turn results in growth in

detecting and treating diseases. With continued progress, the average lifespan will begin to move

into the triple digits. Artificial intelligence, though still in the early stages for many projects, is

expected to possess abilities that will improve humanity on an exponential level. Finally, despite

all of this rapid expansion in the technology field, humans can be assured that the fate of the

labor field is still on the right path. While doubts will always exist as technology continues to

progress, the overall consensus by most experts in the field have determined that as a society, we

are moving in the right direction.

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