Trump’s Net Approval Near Even or Underwater in Most States

POLITICAL • Nationally, 42% approve of Trump while 54% disapprove

INTELLIGENCE
• Net favorability among Independents is at -18
• Among key Senate states, Trump’s approval is net positive in four states: Arizona
TRUMP (+2), Missouri (+3), Montana (+4) and West Virginia (+23)

Republicans Hold Slight Edge on Generic Ballot in Key Blue States

• Despite net positive approval ratings for many incumbents, a plurality of voters across
key Senate states say it is time to elect someone new
Key SENATE
• Across key Senate states, Republicans lead in the generic ballot in Democratic
Senate held seats like Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West
Takeaways Virginia
• Despite security issues being the top policy issue for Republicans, economy is top of
mind for voters across all key Senate states

Enthusiasm Gap With Democrats Performing Better In Dark Blue Districts Than
Republicans In Dark Red Districts
• Lean blue districts are less favorable to Trump compared to favorability levels in lean
red districts
HOUSE • Trump’s approval is underwater by 4 points in toss-up districts
• Generic Democratic candidates in lean blue districts have a much wider lead than
Republicans in lean red districts
SLIDE / 2
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Approval by Party
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Voters
42% 54%
Approve Disapprove
Change since
previous month 0 +1

Trump
Strongly Somewhat Don’t Know / Somewhat Strongly
Approval Approve Approve No Opinion Disapprove Disapprove

Democrats 7% 12% 74% 11% 87%

Approve Disapprove

Independents 13% 23% 9% 16% 38%

37% 55%
Approve Disapprove

Republicans 46% 37% 9% 7%

83% 15%
Approve Disapprove
SLIDE / 4
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep. State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep.

2 (+2) -76 -4 70 -6 (-5) -78 -17 65

-2 (-1) -73 -10 71 -6 (-1) -72 -15 71

Trump
Approval -1 (0) -74 -14 69 -6 (0) -67 -21 63

3 (+1) -74 -7 73 -9 (-1) -79 -17 69

4 (+5) -80 1 84 23 (+2) -42 19 79

-9 (-2) -78 -16 73 -15 (-1) -81 -20 67

SLIDE / 5
Clinton won state in 2016 Trump won state in 2016
1 Change since previous month
presidential election presidential election
 2018 MIDTERMS
Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

Strongly
30% Disapprove
37%
Trump 54%
47%
42%
Somewhat
Approval 12%
Disapprove

13% 5% Don’t Know /

13%
5% No Opinion
14%
4%
13% 27%
4% Somewhat
24%
5% 22% Approve
20%
16%
Strongly
22% 26% Approve
15% 19%
13%

SLIDE / 6

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Voters
40% 35%
Democratic Republican
Candidate Candidate
Change since
previous month 0 0

Generic
Congressional
Ballot Democratic
Candidate
Don’t Know /
No Opinion
Republican
Candidate

Democrats 89% 2%

Independents 25% 55% 20%

Republicans 11% 86%

SLIDE / 8
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Dem. Rep. Dem. Rep.

State State
Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate

34% (0) 40% (+1) 30% (-8) 38% (-3)

Generic 37% (0) 38% (0) 38% (0) 36% (0)

Congressional
Ballot 34% (0) 39% (0) 39% (0) 38% (0)

33% (+1) 38% (0) 39% (-1) 36% (-1)

37% (-3) 42% (+2) 29% (+1) 43% (-2)

38% (0) 36% (-1) 40% (+1) 35% (-1)

SLIDE / 9

Democrat holds Senate Republican holds Senate 1 Change since previous month
seat opening in 2018 seat opening in 2018
 2018 MIDTERMS
Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

21%
29%
Generic 35% 39%
45%
Congressional Republican
Ballot 28% Candidate

26%
Don’t Know /
26%
26% No Opinion
26%
Democratic
Candidate
55%
45%
39% 36%
30%

SLIDE / 10

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Do you approve or disapprove Do you think [Senator]
of the job [Senator] is doing? deserves reelection?

Deserves Time for

Senator Approve Disapprove Reelection New Person

Bill
Nelson 46% (-1) 31% (+2) 31% (0) 46% (0)
(D-FL)
Approval and
Joe
Reelection by Donnelly 41% (-1) 34% (+2) 30% (-1) 43% (+2)
(D-IN)
Incumbent
Tina
Smith 34% (+1) 20% (-1) 25% (+1) 30% (-1)
(D-MN)

Claire
McCaskill 38% (-1) 45% (+1) 29% (-1) 53% (0)
(D-MO)

Jon
Tester 54% (-2) 34% (+1) 43% (-4) 43% (+1)
(D-MT)

Heidi
Heitkamp (D- 44% (+3) 42% (+3) 35% (-1) 49% (+1)
ND)
SLIDE / 12

1 Change since previous month

 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Do you approve or disapprove Do you think [Senator]
of the job [Senator] is doing? deserves reelection?

Deserves Time for

Senator Approve Disapprove Reelection New Person

Dean
Heller 38% (-1) 40% (0) 25% (-1) 50% (0)
(R-NV)
Approval and
Sherrod
Reelection by Brown 45% (-5) 29% (+4) 32% (-1) 42% (+1)
(D-OH)
Incumbent
Bob
Casey 41% (+1) 33% (+1) 30% (-1) 45% (+1)
(D-PA)

Tammy
Baldwin 40% (0) 42% (0) 34% (0) 48% (+1)
(D-WI)

Joe
Manchin 41% (-2) 46% (-2) 32% (-2) 53% (+6)
(D-WV)

SLIDE / 13

1 Change since previous month

 2018 MIDTERMS
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District
POLITICAL Competitiveness1
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

43% 42% 42%

Approval and Do you approve
39%
34%
39%
34% 32%
Reelection by or disapprove
of the job
30% 31%
Approve

Incumbent [Representative]
is doing? Disapprove

44% 45% 43%

40% 41%
32% Deserves
31% 29%
Do you think 28% 28% reelection
[Representative]
deserves Time for a
reelection? new person

SLIDE / 14

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
 POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

2018 Midterms

Trump Approval
1 What voters think about POTUS

Generic Congressional Ballot

2 What voters think about control of the House and Senate

Approval and Reelection by Incumbent

3 What voters think about key officials

Top Policy Issues

4 What voters prioritize at the polls
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues Among All Voters
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

All Americans Democrats Independents Republicans

Economic Economic Economic

Issues 27% Issues 24% Issues 29% Security Issues 35%

Health Care Economic

Security Issues 21% Issues 22% Security Issues 18% Issues 29%

Top Policy Health Care Health Care Senior's Issues 13%

Issues Issues 17% Senior's Issues 20% Issues 16%

Health Care
Senior's Issues 16% Security Issues 11% Senior's Issues 14% Issues 12%

Education Education Education Education

Issues 7% Issues 8% Issues 8% Issues 4%

Other 5% Women's Issues 6% Other 7% Other 3%

Women's Issues 4% Other 5% Women's Issues 4% Women's Issues 2%

Energy Issues 3% Energy Issues 5% Energy Issues 4% Energy Issues 1%

SLIDE / 16
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Arizona Florida Indiana

Economic 25% Economic 25% Economic 27%

Security 24% Security 24% Security 23%
Health Care 16% Senior 17% Health Care 17%
Senior 16% Health Care 16% Senior 16%
Education 9% Other 5% Education 6%
Other 5% Education 4% Other 6%
Top Policy Women 3% Women 4% Women 4%

Issues Energy 4% Energy 3% Energy 3%

Missouri Montana Nevada

Economic 28% Economic 29% Economic 25%
Security 19% Health Care 17% Security 22%
Health Care 16% Senior 15% Senior 18%
Senior 15% Security 15% Health Care 16%
Education 7% Other 9% Education 7%
Other 6% Education 6% Other 5%
Women 4% Women 3% Women 3%
SLIDE / 17 Energy 3% Energy 5% Energy 4%
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE
North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania

Economic 26% Economic 26% Economic 29%

Security 22% Security 20% Security 20%
Health Care 16% Health Care 18% Health Care 17%
Senior 13% Senior 17% Senior 17%
Women 6% Education 6% Education 7%
Education 6% Women 5% Other 5%
Top Policy Energy 4% Other 5% Women 4%

Issues Other 6% Energy 3% Energy 3%

Virginia West Virginia Wisconsin

Economic 28% Economic 26% Economic 27%
Security 22% Security 23% Security 20%
Health Care 17% Senior 18% Health Care 19%
Senior 14% Health Care 17% Senior 16%
Education 6% Education 6% Education 6%
Other 6% Other 5% Other 5%
Women 5% Women 3% Women 4%
SLIDE / 18 Energy 3% Energy 3% Energy 4%
 2018 MIDTERMS
Top Policy Issues by Congressional District Competitiveness1
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

Safe Districts that Districts that Safe

Democratic Lean Toss-Up Lean Republican
Districts Democratic Districts Republican Districts

27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Economic Issues

Top Policy Security Issues

Issues 18% 20% 21% 22% 23%

Health Care Issues

Senior’s Issues

18% 17% Women’s Issues

17% 16% 17%
Education Issues
15% 16% 16% 17% 16% Energy Issues
5% 5% 4% 4% 4% Other
8% 7% 6% 7% 7%
4% 4% 4% 3%
5% 3%
6% 6% 5% 5%

SLIDE / 19

1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
POLITICAL
INTELLIGENCE

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Methodology

The results are compiled from surveys with more than 275,000 registered voters across the U.S.
from February 1, 2018 to April 30, 2018. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample
SLIDE / 20 of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.