MEMORANDUM

TO: BILL SCHUETTE FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN TEAM

FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE & ROBERT BLIZZARD
DATE: MAY 8, 2018
RE: MICHIGAN GOP PRIMARY POLL RESULTS

On behalf of the Schuette for Michigan Governor, Public Opinion Strategies (POS) conducted a statewide survey of 600
Republican Primary Voters (MOE + 4.0%), April 29-May 1, 2018.

KEY FINDINGS
§ Despite the Calley team spending early and big on media, Bill Schuette has a two-to-one lead in the GOP primary
for Governor.
Even though Lt. Gov. Calley and his allied groups chose to spend Candidate Ballot Support
significant early money at the time of the poll – including substantial hard Bill Schuette 42%
campaign dollars and hundreds of thousands more in total than the Brian Calley 20%
Schuette campaign and its supporters – Schuette leads Calley by more Patrick Colbeck 6%
than 2-1 and has more support than his three competitors combined. Jim Hines 2%

§ President Trump’s endorsement carries a lot of weight

President Trump is the most popular figure among Republican primary voters. Trump has an 82 percent favorable
rating versus a 15 percent unfavorable rating. The Detroit News columnist Nolan Finley recently wrote, “Republicans
can’t win a GOP primary without him.” The data appears to back that up and benefits Schuette due to the
President’s endorsement and active support.

§ Schuette’s lead extends across every key demographic and geographic group.
Schuette leads Calley by 36 points among very conservative voters and by a similar number among GOP voters with
a very favorable view of the President. Schuette leads Calley across all media markets and even leads by fourteen
points among those voters with a very favorable impression of Governor Snyder (indicating Calley may not be
getting the Snyder “bump” they were hoping for) despite airing ads on the subject.

§ Schuette’s advertising campaign is getting more traction than Calley’s.

Despite Calley and his allies deciding to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars more than Team Schuette on the
airwaves, slightly more GOP voters in the state say they have seen television ads on behalf of Schuette (42 percent)
than Calley (40 percent). Further, GOP voters are responding more favorably to what they are seeing, reading and
hearing about Schuette (29 percent more favorable/17 percent less favorable) compared to Calley (22 to 19 percent),
whose “information flow” is uncomfortably close to one-to-one.

BOTTOM LINE
Despite Calley’s team spending more in the early stages of this campaign, Bill Schuette continues as the clear
frontrunner in the GOP primary for Governor. Lt. Gov. Calley’s campaign has failed to make significant inroads into Bill’s
voter support, especially his strong base with conservatives and Trump supporters. The Schuette campaign is well-
positioned to take advantage of his Trump/Pence endorsement and press on to victory in the August primary.

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PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES