The Value of Gold vs Stock Market

Introduction
Gold is a market that some people feel to be a very solid investment. It does not fluctuate as much as
the silver market, and supply and demand are more constant than it is in commodities. It is not
uncommon to hear it explained that the value of gold will tend to go up as the stock market goes down.
This, in theory, being because people would tend to pull out of the stock market in as it goes down and
reinvest in gold. I did a correlation analysis of the price of gold as compared to the value of the stock
market to determine if there really is an inverse relationship between the two values.

Tests and Results

My first test was a correlation test of the value of gold compared to the value of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average over a 100 year period ranging from January 1915 until the most recent values listed
in September 2015. My findings were intriguing. I found a positive correlation coefficient of 0.82 with a
significance level of 4.0025 × 10−297 . These findings are the opposite of what general wisdom would
tell you. This means as stock prices go up, so does the value of gold.

Next I skimmed some articles on the subject of the gold/stock market relationship and found that most
articles claimed there was virtually no relationship (Putnam, 2013). At this point, I double checked my
calculations and found them to be correct. Rereading the article I discovered that Putnam stated the
relationship was not static. At this point, I broke the data up into four groups: the first 50 years, second
50 years, the third 25 years, and the fourth 25 years. Putnam was right, the first 50 years had a
statistically significant positive relationship with a correlations coefficient of 0.48 and an r square of
0.24. The next 50 years presented a correlation coefficient very close to 1 (0.96). The first half of that
50 year period was statistically insignificant, but the second half was extremely significant with a
coefficient of .95.

Conclusions
Though the data does not of a solid relationship over time (as is evident when looking at the scatter plot
in the appendix), the 100 year relationship between gold and stocks seems to be very solid. Enclosed in
the appendix is a forecasting tool that will estimate the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with
the insertion of a value of gold.

References
Dow Jones,Yahoo Finance. (2015, September 20). Dow Jones 100 Year Historical Chart. Retrieved from
Macrotrends: https://macrotrends.dpdcart.com/product/109949

London Bullion Market Association, Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2015, September 20). Historical Gold
Prices - 100 Year Chart . Retrieved from Macrotrends:
https://macrotrends.dpdcart.com/product/109948

Putnam, D. (2013, June 10). Will Gold Really Hedge a Falling Stock Market. Retrieved from InvestorPlace:
http://investorplace.com/2013/06/will-gold-really-hedge-a-falling-stock-
market/#.VghHgbQbvGs
Appendix A 100 years of Values
Gold
Date DJIA (Nominal Value) (Nominal)
1/1/15 56.54 19.25
2/1/15 55.02 19.25
3/1/15 60.83 19.25
4/1/15 71.78 19.25
5/1/15 65.01 19.25
6/1/15 70.06 19.25
7/1/15 75.53 19.25
8/1/15 81.2 19.25
9/1/15 90.58 19.25
10/1/15 95.34 19.25
11/1/15 96.71 19.25
12/1/15 99.15 19.25
1/1/16 90.58 19.47
2/1/16 91.03 19.47
3/1/16 93.25 19.47
4/1/16 89.65 19.47
5/1/16 91.8 19.47
6/1/16 89.58 19.47
7/1/16 89.25 19.47
8/1/16 92.25 19.47
9/1/16 103.73 19.47
10/1/16 104.61 19.47
11/1/16 105.97 19.47
12/1/16 95 19.47
1/1/17 95.43 19.66
2/1/17 91.56 19.66
3/1/17 96.72 19.66
4/1/17 93.23 19.66
5/1/17 97.38 19.66
6/1/17 95.38 19.66
7/1/17 91.75 19.66
8/1/17 83.4 19.66
9/1/17 83.46 19.66
10/1/17 74.5 19.66
11/1/17 72.65 19.66
12/1/17 74.38 19.66
1/1/18 79.8 19.84
2/1/18 80.39 19.84
3/1/18 76.41 19.84
4/1/18 77.51 19.84
5/1/18 78.08 19.84
 6/1/18 82.58 19.84
7/1/18 81.23 19.84
8/1/18 82.46 19.84
9/1/18 84.68 19.84
10/1/18 85.51 19.84
11/1/18 80.93 19.84
12/1/18 82.2 19.84
1/1/19 80.61 20.03
2/1/19 84.81 20.03
3/1/19 88.85 20.03
4/1/19 92.88 20.03
5/1/19 105.5 20.03
6/1/19 106.98 20.03
7/1/19 107.16 20.03
8/1/19 104.75 20.03
9/1/19 111.42 20.03
10/1/19 118.92 20.03
11/1/19 103.72 20.03
12/1/19 107.23 20.03
1/1/20 104.21 20.63
2/1/20 91.18 20.63
3/1/20 102.81 20.63
4/1/20 93.54 20.63
5/1/20 91.81 20.63
6/1/20 90.76 20.63
7/1/20 86.86 20.63
8/1/20 86.16 20.63
9/1/20 82.95 20.63
10/1/20 85.08 20.63
11/1/20 76.04 20.63
12/1/20 71.95 20.63
1/1/21 76.13 20.69
2/1/21 74.98 20.69
3/1/21 75.76 20.69
4/1/21 78.57 20.69
5/1/21 73.44 20.69
6/1/21 68.45 20.69
7/1/21 68.37 20.69
8/1/21 67.11 20.69
9/1/21 71.08 20.69
10/1/21 73.21 20.69
11/1/21 77.3 20.69
12/1/21 80.8 20.69
1/1/22 81.3 20.84
 2/1/22 85.46 20.84
3/1/22 89.05 20.84
4/1/22 91.93 20.84
5/1/22 95.63 20.84
6/1/22 92.93 20.84
7/1/22 97.05 20.84
8/1/22 100.78 20.84
9/1/22 97.12 20.84
10/1/22 96.11 20.84
11/1/22 94.65 20.84
12/1/22 98.17 20.84
1/1/23 97.43 20.75
2/1/23 103.9 20.75
3/1/23 102.77 20.75
4/1/23 98.38 20.75
5/1/23 97.53 20.75
6/1/23 88.4 20.75
7/1/23 86.91 20.75
8/1/23 93.46 20.75
9/1/23 87.97 20.75
10/1/23 88.53 20.75
11/1/23 92.34 20.75
12/1/23 95.52 20.75
1/1/24 100.66 20.78
2/1/24 97.22 20.78
3/1/24 93.01 20.78
4/1/24 90.63 20.78
5/1/24 89.9 20.78
6/1/24 96.37 20.78
7/1/24 102.14 20.78
8/1/24 104.14 20.78
9/1/24 103.16 20.78
10/1/24 104.06 20.78
11/1/24 111.1 20.78
12/1/24 120.51 20.78
1/1/25 123.49 20.75
2/1/25 122.24 20.75
3/1/25 116.75 20.75
4/1/25 120.01 20.75
5/1/25 129.95 20.75
6/1/25 131.01 20.75
7/1/25 133.81 20.75
8/1/25 141.18 20.75
9/1/25 143.46 20.75
10/1/25 155.65 20.75
11/1/25 151.08 20.75
12/1/25 156.66 20.75
1/1/26 157.35 20.72
2/1/26 154.68 20.72
3/1/26 140.46 20.72
4/1/26 143.71 20.72
5/1/26 143.43 20.72
6/1/26 153.04 20.72
7/1/26 160.18 20.72
8/1/26 162.51 20.72
9/1/26 158.19 20.72
10/1/26 150.76 20.72
11/1/26 156.55 20.72
12/1/26 157.2 20.72
1/1/27 156.41 20.75
2/1/27 161.96 20.75
3/1/27 160.08 20.75
4/1/27 164.64 20.75
5/1/27 172.96 20.75
6/1/27 166.23 20.75
7/1/27 181.4 20.75
8/1/27 189.79 20.75
9/1/27 197.59 20.75
10/1/27 181.73 20.75
11/1/27 198.21 20.75
12/1/27 200.7 20.75
1/1/28 198.59 20.78
2/1/28 194.78 20.78
3/1/28 214.45 20.78
4/1/28 211.63 20.78
5/1/28 219.81 20.78
6/1/28 210.37 20.78
7/1/28 216 20.78
8/1/28 240.41 20.78
9/1/28 237.38 20.78
10/1/28 252.16 20.78
11/1/28 293.38 20.78
12/1/28 300 20.78
1/1/29 317.51 20.72
2/1/29 317.41 20.72
3/1/29 308.85 20.72
4/1/29 319.29 20.72
5/1/29 297.41 20.72
 6/1/29 331.65 20.72
7/1/29 347.7 20.72
8/1/29 380.33 20.72
9/1/29 343.45 20.72
10/1/29 273.51 20.72
11/1/29 238.95 20.72
12/1/29 248.48 20.72
1/1/30 267.14 20.69
2/1/30 271.11 20.69
3/1/30 286.1 20.69
4/1/30 279.23 20.69
5/1/30 275.07 20.69
6/1/30 226.34 20.69
7/1/30 233.99 20.69
8/1/30 240.42 20.69
9/1/30 204.9 20.69
10/1/30 183.35 20.69
11/1/30 180.91 20.69
12/1/30 164.58 20.69
1/1/31 169.34 22.59
2/1/31 190.34 22.59
3/1/31 172.36 22.59
4/1/31 151.19 22.59
5/1/31 128.46 22.59
6/1/31 150.18 22.59
7/1/31 135.39 22.59
8/1/31 139.41 22.59
9/1/31 96.61 22.59
10/1/31 103.97 22.59
11/1/31 93.87 22.59
12/1/31 77.9 22.59
1/1/32 76.55 20.78
2/1/32 81.44 20.78
3/1/32 73.28 20.78
4/1/32 55.93 20.78
5/1/32 44.74 20.78
6/1/32 42.84 20.78
7/1/32 53.89 20.78
8/1/32 73.16 20.78
9/1/32 71.56 20.78
10/1/32 61.9 20.78
11/1/32 56.35 20.78
12/1/32 60.26 20.78
1/1/33 60.9 26.47
 2/1/33 51.39 26.47
3/1/33 55.4 26.47
4/1/33 73.1 26.47
5/1/33 88.11 26.47
6/1/33 98.14 26.47
7/1/33 90.77 26.47
8/1/33 102.41 26.47
9/1/33 94.24 26.47
10/1/33 88.16 26.47
11/1/33 98.14 26.47
12/1/33 98.67 26.47
1/1/34 107.22 35
2/1/34 103.46 35
3/1/34 100.31 35
4/1/34 100.49 35
5/1/34 94 35
6/1/34 95.75 35
7/1/34 88.05 35
8/1/34 92.86 35
9/1/34 92.49 35
10/1/34 93.36 35
11/1/34 102.94 35
12/1/34 104.04 35
1/1/35 101.69 35
2/1/35 102.38 35
3/1/35 100.78 35
4/1/35 109.45 35
5/1/35 110.64 35
6/1/35 118.36 35
7/1/35 126.23 35
8/1/35 127.35 35
9/1/35 131.92 35
10/1/35 139.74 35
11/1/35 142.34 35
12/1/35 144.13 35
1/1/36 149.49 35
2/1/36 152.53 35
3/1/36 156.34 35
4/1/36 145.67 35
5/1/36 152.64 35
6/1/36 157.69 35
7/1/36 164.86 35
8/1/36 166.29 35
9/1/36 167.82 35
10/1/36 177.15 35
11/1/36 183.22 35
12/1/36 179.9 35
1/1/37 184.74 35
2/1/37 187.17 35
3/1/37 186.41 35
4/1/37 174.27 35
5/1/37 174.71 35
6/1/37 169.32 35
7/1/37 184.01 35
8/1/37 177.41 35
9/1/37 154.57 35
10/1/37 138.48 35
11/1/37 123.48 35
12/1/37 120.85 35
1/1/38 121.87 35
2/1/38 129.64 35
3/1/38 98.95 35
4/1/38 111.66 35
5/1/38 107.74 35
6/1/38 133.88 35
7/1/38 141.2 35
8/1/38 139.27 35
9/1/38 141.45 35
10/1/38 151.73 35
11/1/38 149.82 35
12/1/38 154.36 35
1/1/39 143.76 34.69
2/1/39 147.3 34.69
3/1/39 131.84 34.69
4/1/39 128.38 34.69
5/1/39 138.18 34.69
6/1/39 130.63 34.69
7/1/39 143.26 34.69
8/1/39 134.41 34.69
9/1/39 150.16 34.69
10/1/39 151.88 34.69
11/1/39 145.69 34.69
12/1/39 149.99 34.69
1/1/40 145.33 34.06
2/1/40 146.54 34.06
3/1/40 147.54 34.06
4/1/40 148.43 34.06
5/1/40 116.22 34.06
 6/1/40 122.06 34.06
7/1/40 126.14 34.06
8/1/40 128.88 34.06
9/1/40 132.64 34.06
10/1/40 134.61 34.06
11/1/40 130.03 34.06
12/1/40 131.13 34.06
1/1/41 124.13 34.06
2/1/41 121.97 34.06
3/1/41 122.72 34.06
4/1/41 115.54 34.06
5/1/41 116.23 34.06
6/1/41 123.14 34.06
7/1/41 128.79 34.06
8/1/41 127.43 34.06
9/1/41 126.82 34.06
10/1/41 117.82 34.06
11/1/41 114.66 34.06
12/1/41 110.96 34.06
1/1/42 109.41 34.06
2/1/42 106.58 34.06
3/1/42 99.53 34.06
4/1/42 95.35 34.06
5/1/42 100.88 34.06
6/1/42 103.34 34.06
7/1/42 105.72 34.06
8/1/42 106.33 34.06
9/1/42 109.11 34.06
10/1/42 113.5 34.06
11/1/42 114.5 34.06
12/1/42 119.4 34.06
1/1/43 125.41 34.06
2/1/43 129.71 34.06
3/1/43 136.57 34.06
4/1/43 135.48 34.06
5/1/43 141.18 34.06
6/1/43 143.38 34.06
7/1/43 137.25 34.06
8/1/43 136.62 34.06
9/1/43 140.12 34.06
10/1/43 138.29 34.06
11/1/43 129.57 34.06
12/1/43 135.89 34.06
1/1/44 137.4 34.06
 2/1/44 136.3 34.06
3/1/44 138.84 34.06
4/1/44 136.21 34.06
5/1/44 142.24 34.06
6/1/44 148.38 34.06
7/1/44 146.11 34.06
8/1/44 146.99 34.06
9/1/44 146.31 34.06
10/1/44 146.53 34.06
11/1/44 147.33 34.06
12/1/44 151.93 34.06
1/1/45 153.67 35
2/1/45 160.4 35
3/1/45 154.06 35
4/1/45 165.44 35
5/1/45 168.3 35
6/1/45 164.57 35
7/1/45 162.88 35
8/1/45 174.29 35
9/1/45 180.11 35
10/1/45 186.6 35
11/1/45 191.46 35
12/1/45 192.91 35
1/1/46 204.67 35
2/1/46 190.09 35
3/1/46 199.56 35
4/1/46 206.77 35
5/1/46 212.28 35
6/1/46 205.62 35
7/1/46 201.56 35
8/1/46 189.19 35
9/1/46 172.42 35
10/1/46 169.15 35
11/1/46 169.78 35
12/1/46 177.2 35
1/1/47 180.44 35
2/1/47 178.9 35
3/1/47 177.2 35
4/1/47 170.64 35
5/1/47 169.25 35
6/1/47 177.3 35
7/1/47 183.18 35
8/1/47 178.85 35
9/1/47 177.49 35
10/1/47 181.81 35
11/1/47 179.51 35
12/1/47 181.16 35
1/1/48 174.76 35
2/1/48 166.8 35
3/1/48 177.2 35
4/1/48 180.51 35
5/1/48 190.74 35
6/1/48 189.46 35
7/1/48 181.33 35
8/1/48 181.71 35
9/1/48 178.3 35
10/1/48 188.28 35
11/1/48 171.2 35
12/1/48 177.3 35
1/1/49 179.12 31.88
2/1/49 173.06 31.88
3/1/49 177.1 31.88
4/1/49 174.06 31.88
5/1/49 168.36 31.88
6/1/49 167.42 31.88
7/1/49 175.92 31.88
8/1/49 178.66 31.88
9/1/49 182.51 31.88
10/1/49 189.54 31.88
11/1/49 191.55 31.88
12/1/49 200.52 31.88
1/1/50 201.79 35
2/1/50 203.44 35
3/1/50 206.05 35
4/1/50 213.56 35
5/1/50 223.42 35
6/1/50 209.11 35
7/1/50 209.4 35
8/1/50 216.87 35
9/1/50 226.36 35
10/1/50 225.01 35
11/1/50 227.6 35
12/1/50 235.42 35
1/1/51 248.83 35
2/1/51 252.05 35
3/1/51 248.53 35
4/1/51 259.13 35
5/1/51 249.65 35
 6/1/51 242.64 35
7/1/51 257.86 35
8/1/51 270.25 35
9/1/51 271.16 35
10/1/51 262.35 35
11/1/51 261.27 35
12/1/51 269.23 35
1/1/52 270.69 34.69
2/1/52 260.08 34.69
3/1/52 269.46 34.69
4/1/52 257.63 34.69
5/1/52 262.94 34.69
6/1/52 274.26 34.69
7/1/52 279.56 34.69
8/1/52 275.04 34.69
9/1/52 270.61 34.69
10/1/52 269.23 34.69
11/1/52 283.66 34.69
12/1/52 291.9 34.69
1/1/53 289.77 35
2/1/53 284.27 35
3/1/53 279.87 35
4/1/53 274.75 35
5/1/53 272.28 35
6/1/53 268.26 35
7/1/53 275.38 35
8/1/53 261.22 35
9/1/53 264.04 35
10/1/53 275.81 35
11/1/53 281.37 35
12/1/53 280.9 35
1/1/54 292.39 35.31
2/1/54 294.54 35.31
3/1/54 303.51 35.31
4/1/54 319.33 35.31
5/1/54 327.49 35.31
6/1/54 333.53 35.31
7/1/54 347.92 35.31
8/1/54 335.8 35.31
9/1/54 360.46 35.31
10/1/54 352.14 35.31
11/1/54 386.77 35.31
12/1/54 404.39 35.31
1/1/55 408.83 35.31
 2/1/55 411.87 35.31
3/1/55 409.7 35.31
4/1/55 425.65 35.31
5/1/55 424.86 35.31
6/1/55 451.38 35.31
7/1/55 465.85 35.31
8/1/55 468.18 35.31
9/1/55 466.62 35.31
10/1/55 454.87 35.31
11/1/55 483.26 35.31
12/1/55 488.4 35.31
1/1/56 470.74 35.31
2/1/56 483.65 35.31
3/1/56 511.79 35.31
4/1/56 516.12 35.31
5/1/56 478.05 35.31
6/1/56 492.78 35.31
7/1/56 517.81 35.31
8/1/56 502.04 35.31
9/1/56 475.25 35.31
10/1/56 479.85 35.31
11/1/56 472.78 35.31
12/1/56 499.47 35.31
1/1/57 479.16 35
2/1/57 464.62 35
3/1/57 474.81 35
4/1/57 494.36 35
5/1/57 504.93 35
6/1/57 503.29 35
7/1/57 508.52 35
8/1/57 484.35 35
9/1/57 456.3 35
10/1/57 441.04 35
11/1/57 449.87 35
12/1/57 435.69 35
1/1/58 450.02 35.31
2/1/58 439.92 35.31
3/1/58 446.76 35.31
4/1/58 455.86 35.31
5/1/58 462.7 35.31
6/1/58 478.18 35.31
7/1/58 502.99 35.31
8/1/58 508.63 35.31
9/1/58 532.09 35.31
10/1/58 543.22 35.31
11/1/58 557.46 35.31
12/1/58 583.65 35.31
1/1/59 593.96 35.31
2/1/59 603.5 35.31
3/1/59 601.71 35.31
4/1/59 623.75 35.31
5/1/59 643.79 35.31
6/1/59 643.6 35.31
7/1/59 674.88 35.31
8/1/59 664.41 35.31
9/1/59 631.68 35.31
10/1/59 646.6 35.31
11/1/59 659.18 35.31
12/1/59 679.36 35.31
1/1/60 622.62 35.31
2/1/60 630.12 35.31
3/1/60 616.59 35.31
4/1/60 601.7 35.31
5/1/60 625.5 35.31
6/1/60 640.62 35.31
7/1/60 616.73 35.31
8/1/60 625.99 35.31
9/1/60 580.14 35.31
10/1/60 580.36 35.31
11/1/60 597.22 35.31
12/1/60 615.89 35.31
1/1/61 648.2 35.31
2/1/61 662.08 35.31
3/1/61 676.63 35.31
4/1/61 678.71 35.31
5/1/61 696.72 35.31
6/1/61 683.96 35.31
7/1/61 705.37 35.31
8/1/61 719.94 35.31
9/1/61 701.21 35.31
10/1/61 703.92 35.31
11/1/61 721.6 35.31
12/1/61 731.14 35.31
1/1/62 700 35.31
2/1/62 708.05 35.31
3/1/62 706.95 35.31
4/1/62 665.33 35.31
5/1/62 613.36 35.31
 6/1/62 561.28 35.31
7/1/62 597.93 35.31
8/1/62 609.18 35.31
9/1/62 578.98 35.31
10/1/62 589.77 35.31
11/1/62 649.3 35.31
12/1/62 652.1 35.31
1/1/63 682.85 35.31
2/1/63 662.94 35.31
3/1/63 682.52 35.31
4/1/63 717.7 35.31
5/1/63 726.96 35.31
6/1/63 706.88 35.31
7/1/63 695.43 35.31
8/1/63 729.32 35.31
9/1/63 732.79 35.31
10/1/63 755.23 35.31
11/1/63 750.52 35.31
12/1/63 762.95 35.31
1/1/64 785.34 35.31
2/1/64 800.14 35.31
3/1/64 813.29 35.31
4/1/64 810.77 35.31
5/1/64 820.56 35.31
6/1/64 831.5 35.31
7/1/64 841.1 35.31
8/1/64 838.48 35.31
9/1/64 875.37 35.31
10/1/64 873.08 35.31
11/1/64 875.43 35.31
12/1/64 874.13 35.31
1/1/65 902.86 35.31
2/1/65 903.48 35.31
3/1/65 889.05 35.31
4/1/65 922.31 35.31
5/1/65 918.04 35.31
6/1/65 868.03 35.31
7/1/65 881.74 35.31
8/1/65 893.1 35.31
9/1/65 930.58 35.31
10/1/65 960.82 35.31
11/1/65 946.71 35.31
12/1/65 969.26 35.31
1/1/66 983.51 35.31
 2/1/66 951.89 35.31
3/1/66 924.77 35.31
4/1/66 933.68 35.31
5/1/66 884.07 35.31
6/1/66 870.1 35.31
7/1/66 847.38 35.31
8/1/66 788.41 35.31
9/1/66 774.22 35.31
10/1/66 807.07 35.31
11/1/66 791.59 35.31
12/1/66 785.69 35.31
1/1/67 849.89 35.31
2/1/67 839.37 35.31
3/1/67 865.98 35.31
4/1/67 897.05 35.31
5/1/67 852.56 35.31
6/1/67 860.26 35.31
7/1/67 904.24 35.31
8/1/67 901.29 35.31
9/1/67 926.66 35.31
10/1/67 879.74 35.31
11/1/67 875.81 35.31
12/1/67 905.11 35.31
1/1/68 855.47 40.31
2/1/68 840.5 40.31
3/1/68 840.67 40.31
4/1/68 912.22 40.31
5/1/68 899 40.31
6/1/68 897.8 40.31
7/1/68 883 40.31
8/1/68 896.01 40.31
9/1/68 935.79 40.31
10/1/68 952.39 40.31
11/1/68 985.08 40.31
12/1/68 943.75 40.31
1/1/69 946.05 41.88
2/1/69 905.21 41.88
3/1/69 935.48 41.88
4/1/69 950.18 41.88
5/1/69 937.56 41.88
6/1/69 873.19 41.88
7/1/69 815.47 41.88
8/1/69 836.72 41.88
9/1/69 813.09 41.88
10/1/69 855.99 41.88
11/1/69 812.3 41.88
12/1/69 800.36 41.88
1/1/70 744.06 36.56
2/1/70 777.59 36.56
3/1/70 785.57 36.56
4/1/70 736.07 36.56
5/1/70 700.44 36.56
6/1/70 683.53 36.56
7/1/70 734.12 36.56
8/1/70 764.58 36.56
9/1/70 760.68 36.56
10/1/70 755.61 36.56
11/1/70 794.09 36.56
12/1/70 838.92 36.56
1/1/71 868.5 37.88
2/1/71 878.83 38.74
3/1/71 904.37 38.87
4/1/71 941.75 39.01
5/1/71 907.81 40.52
6/1/71 891.14 40.1
7/1/71 858.43 40.95
8/1/71 898.07 42.71
9/1/71 887.19 42.03
10/1/71 839 42.5
11/1/71 831.34 42.86
12/1/71 890.2 43.48
1/1/72 902.17 45.75
2/1/72 928.13 48.26
3/1/72 940.7 48.33
4/1/72 954.17 49.03
5/1/72 960.72 54.62
6/1/72 929.03 62.09
7/1/72 924.74 65.66
8/1/72 963.73 67.03
9/1/72 953.27 65.46
10/1/72 955.52 64.86
11/1/72 1018.21 62.91
12/1/72 1020.02 63.91
1/1/73 999.02 65.14
2/1/73 955.07 74.2
3/1/73 951.01 84.46
4/1/73 921.43 90.51
5/1/73 901.41 102.56
 6/1/73 891.71 120.2
7/1/73 926.4 119.92
8/1/73 887.57 106.58
9/1/73 947.1 102.67
10/1/73 956.58 100.08
11/1/73 822.25 95.22
12/1/73 850.86 106.75
1/1/74 855.55 129.51
2/1/74 860.53 151.22
3/1/74 846.68 168.58
4/1/74 836.75 172.12
5/1/74 802.17 162.95
6/1/74 802.41 153.79
7/1/74 757.43 143.99
8/1/74 678.58 154.49
9/1/74 607.87 151.42
10/1/74 665.52 158.98
11/1/74 618.66 182.5
12/1/74 616.24 183.72
1/1/75 703.69 176.52
2/1/75 739.05 179.73
3/1/75 768.15 178.04
4/1/75 821.34 169.58
5/1/75 832.29 167.27
6/1/75 878.99 164.36
7/1/75 831.51 165.17
8/1/75 835.34 162.7
9/1/75 793.88 143.83
10/1/75 836.04 142.75
11/1/75 860.67 142.28
12/1/75 852.41 139.31
1/1/76 975.28 131.25
2/1/76 972.61 131.14
3/1/76 999.45 132.51
4/1/76 996.85 127.92
5/1/76 975.23 126.89
6/1/76 1002.78 125.62
7/1/76 984.64 117.51
8/1/76 973.74 109.78
9/1/76 990.19 114.38
10/1/76 964.93 116.16
11/1/76 947.22 130.64
12/1/76 1004.65 133.95
1/1/77 954.37 132.2
 2/1/77 936.42 136.52
3/1/77 919.13 148.38
4/1/77 926.9 149.17
5/1/77 898.66 146.5
6/1/77 916.3 140.75
7/1/77 890.07 143.43
8/1/77 861.49 144.98
9/1/77 847.11 149.75
10/1/77 818.35 159.03
11/1/77 829.7 162.05
12/1/77 831.17 160.33
1/1/78 769.92 173.35
2/1/78 742.12 178.31
3/1/78 757.36 183.68
4/1/78 837.32 174.7
5/1/78 840.61 176.64
6/1/78 818.95 183.76
7/1/78 862.27 189.25
8/1/78 876.82 206.37
9/1/78 865.82 212.29
10/1/78 792.45 227.63
11/1/78 799.03 205.33
12/1/78 805.01 207.7
1/1/79 839.22 227.33
2/1/79 808.82 246.16
3/1/79 862.18 241.84
4/1/79 854.9 239.36
5/1/79 822.33 258.27
6/1/79 841.98 279.24
7/1/79 846.42 294.86
8/1/79 887.63 301.55
9/1/79 878.58 357.41
10/1/79 815.7 390.87
11/1/79 822.35 393.14
12/1/79 838.74 455.92
1/1/80 875.85 677.97
2/1/80 863.14 664.3
3/1/80 785.75 550.62
4/1/80 817.06 516.92
5/1/80 850.85 515.61
6/1/80 867.92 603.06
7/1/80 935.32 643.46
8/1/80 932.59 627.32
9/1/80 932.42 674.84
10/1/80 924.49 660.25
11/1/80 993.34 623.33
12/1/80 963.99 593.84
1/1/81 947.27 555.83
2/1/81 974.58 499.06
3/1/81 1003.87 499.87
4/1/81 997.75 495.13
5/1/81 991.75 479.37
6/1/81 976.88 459.35
7/1/81 952.34 408.61
8/1/81 881.47 410.91
9/1/81 849.98 444.1
10/1/81 852.55 437.6
11/1/81 888.98 412.71
12/1/81 875 410.3
1/1/82 871.1 383.95
2/1/82 824.39 373.67
3/1/82 822.77 329.51
4/1/82 848.36 350.66
5/1/82 819.54 333.21
6/1/82 811.93 314.79
7/1/82 808.6 339.9
8/1/82 901.31 365.51
9/1/82 896.25 437.24
10/1/82 991.72 422.73
11/1/82 1039.28 415.21
12/1/82 1046.54 444.4
1/1/83 1075.7 482.76
2/1/83 1112.62 488.75
3/1/83 1130.03 419.94
4/1/83 1226.2 432.98
5/1/83 1199.98 437.42
6/1/83 1221.96 412.98
7/1/83 1199.22 422.6
8/1/83 1216.16 416.34
9/1/83 1233.13 411.18
10/1/83 1225.2 393.31
11/1/83 1276.02 382.18
12/1/83 1258.64 388.03
1/1/84 1220.58 370.8
2/1/84 1154.63 386.57
3/1/84 1164.89 394.13
4/1/84 1170.75 380.91
5/1/84 1104.85 377.81
 6/1/84 1132.4 377.1
7/1/84 1115.28 346.76
8/1/84 1224.38 347.8
9/1/84 1206.71 341.12
10/1/84 1207.38 339.92
11/1/84 1188.94 341.08
12/1/84 1211.57 319.56
1/1/85 1286.77 302.25
2/1/85 1284.01 298.32
3/1/85 1266.78 304.47
4/1/85 1258.06 325.06
5/1/85 1315.41 316.5
6/1/85 1335.46 316.39
7/1/85 1347.45 317.62
8/1/85 1334.01 329.97
9/1/85 1328.63 322.77
10/1/85 1374.31 325.87
11/1/85 1472.13 325.2
12/1/85 1546.67 321.61
1/1/86 1570.99 345.85
2/1/86 1709.06 338.6
3/1/86 1818.61 345.64
4/1/86 1783.98 340.71
5/1/86 1876.71 342.49
6/1/86 1892.72 342.65
7/1/86 1775.31 348.68
8/1/86 1898.34 377.36
9/1/86 1767.58 418.05
10/1/86 1877.81 423.13
11/1/86 1914.23 397.69
12/1/86 1895.95 390.8
1/1/87 2158.04 408.29
2/1/87 2223.99 401.02
3/1/87 2304.69 409.24
4/1/87 2286.36 439.28
5/1/87 2291.57 459.95
6/1/87 2420.85 449.66
7/1/87 2572.07 451.14
8/1/87 2662.95 460.66
9/1/87 2596.28 460.23
10/1/87 1993.53 465.69
11/1/87 1833.55 468.01
12/1/87 1938.83 486.74
1/1/88 1958.22 475.89
 2/1/88 2071.62 441.52
3/1/88 1988.06 443.63
4/1/88 2032.33 451.62
5/1/88 2003.65 451.14
6/1/88 2141.71 450.88
7/1/88 2128.73 437.56
8/1/88 2031.65 431.18
9/1/88 2112.91 412.02
10/1/88 2148.65 407.14
11/1/88 2114.51 420.48
12/1/88 2168.57 418.92
1/1/89 2342.32 403.57
2/1/89 2258.39 387.55
3/1/89 2293.62 390.02
4/1/89 2418.8 384.37
5/1/89 2480.15 370.62
6/1/89 2440.06 367.9
7/1/89 2660.66 374.91
8/1/89 2737.27 365.15
9/1/89 2692.82 361.91
10/1/89 2645.08 367.03
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1/1/90 2590.54 410.49
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3/1/90 2707.21 392.21
4/1/90 2656.76 374.29
5/1/90 2876.66 369.05
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1/1/91 2736.39 383.04
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8/1/91 3043.6 355.88
9/1/91 3016.77 348.88
10/1/91 3069.1 358.77
11/1/91 2894.68 360.42
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1/1/92 3223.39 354.57
2/1/92 3267.67 353.73
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5/1/92 3396.88 337.21
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1/1/93 3310.03 329.05
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8/1/93 3651.25 377.97
9/1/93 3555.12 354.93
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1/1/94 3978.36 386.56
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1/1/95 3843.86 378.44
2/1/95 4011.05 376.63
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4/1/95 4321.27 390.89
5/1/95 4465.14 385.04
 6/1/95 4556.1 387.58
7/1/95 4708.47 386.19
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9/1/95 4789.08 383.1
10/1/95 4755.48 383.25
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1/1/96 5395.3 400.49
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1/1/97 6813.09 353.87
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9/1/97 7945.26 323.11
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1/1/99 9358.83 287.07
 2/1/99 9306.58 287.33
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1/1/02 9920 281.51
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10/1/02 8397.03 316.56
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 6/1/06 11150.22 596.15
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1/1/07 12621.69 631.17
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8/1/07 13357.74 665.41
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11/1/07 13371.72 806.25
12/1/07 13264.82 803.2
1/1/08 12650.36 889.6
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12/1/08 8776.39 869.75
1/1/09 8000.86 919.5
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10/1/09 9712.73 1040
11/1/09 10344.84 1175.75
12/1/09 10428.05 1087.5
1/1/10 10067.33 1078.5
 2/1/10 10325.26 1108.25
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4/1/10 11008.61 1179.25
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9/1/10 10788.05 1294
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1/1/11 11891.93 1327
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8/1/12 13090.84 1648.5
9/1/12 13437.13 1776
10/1/12 13096.46 1719
11/1/12 13025.58 1726
12/1/12 13104.14 1657.5
1/1/13 13860.58 1664.75
2/1/13 14054.49 1588.5
3/1/13 14578.54 1598.25
4/1/13 14839.8 1469
5/1/13 15115.57 1394.5
6/1/13 14909.6 1192
7/1/13 15499.54 1314.5
8/1/13 14810.31 1394.75
9/1/13 15129.67 1326.5
10/1/13 15545.75 1324
11/1/13 16086.41 1253
12/1/13 16576.66 1204.5
1/1/14 15698.85 1251
2/1/14 16321.71 1326.5
3/1/14 16457.66 1291.75
4/1/14 16580.84 1288.5
5/1/14 16717.17 1250.5
6/1/14 16826.6 1315
7/1/14 16563.3 1285.25
8/1/14 17098.45 1285.75
9/1/14 17042.9 1216.5
10/1/14 17390.52 1164.25
11/1/14 17828.24 1182.75
12/1/14 17823.07 1206
1/1/15 17164.95 1260.25
2/1/15 18132.7 1214
3/1/15 17776.12 1187
4/1/15 17840.52 1180.25
5/1/15 18010.68 1191.4
6/1/15 17619.51 1171
7/1/15 17689.86 1098.4
8/1/15 16526.19 1126.4
9/1/15 16351.38 1123.4
Appendix B 100 years Correlation
DJIA Gold
(Nominal (Nomina
Value) l)
DJIA
(Nominal
Value) 1
Gold
(Nominal) 0.821784 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.821784
R Square 0.675329
Adjusted R
Square 0.67506
Standard
Error 2479.948
Observations 1209

ANOVA
Significanc
df SS MS F eF
1.54E+1 1.54E+ 2510.6 4.0025E-
Regression 1 0 10 08 297
7.42E+0 615014
Residual 1207 9 0
2.29E+1
Total 1208 0

Coefficien Standar Upper Lower Upper

ts d Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
86.0983 4.0774 4.85E- 182.14236 519.98 182.14 519.98
Intercept 351.0613 1 48 05 9 03 24 03
0.20309 50.105 9.7777981 10.574 9.7777 10.574
X Variable 1 10.17626 5 97 4E-297 77 71 98 71
Appendix C Correlation 1915-1964
DJIA Gold
(Nominal (Nomina
Value) l)
DJIA
(Nominal
Value) 1
Gold
(Nominal) 0.485517 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.485517
R Square 0.235727
Adjusted R
Square 0.234449
Standard
Error 174.0839
Observations 600

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
558958 184.44
Regression 1 5589584 4 31 8.24E-37
1812250 30305.
Residual 598 5 19
2371208
Total 599 9

Coefficien Standar Lower Upper Lower Upper

ts d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
- - - -
31.3653 5.4595 109.64 232.84 109.64
Intercept -171.242 4 9 7E-08 -232.842 2 2 2
1.03498 13.580 8.24E- 16.088 12.023 16.088
X Variable 1 14.05608 2 98 37 12.02343 72 43 72
Appendix D Correlation 1965-2015
DJIA Gold
(Nominal (Nomina
Value) l)
DJIA
(Nominal
Value) 1
Gold
(Nominal) 0.959995 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.957532
R Square 0.916868
Adjusted R
Square 0.916729
Standard
Error 1286.756
Observations 600

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
1.09E+1 1.09E+ 6595.3
Regression 1 0 10 62 0
165574
Residual 598 9.9E+08 2
1.19E+1
Total 599 0

Coefficien Standar Lower Upper Lower Upper

ts d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
76.3241 42.710 8.5E- 3409.7 3109.9 3409.7
Intercept 3259.818 1 21 184 3109.922 14 22 14
0.01091 81.211 0.9081 0.8652 0.9081
X Variable 1 0.886713 9 84 0 0.86527 56 7 56
Appendix E Correlation 1965-1989
DJIA Gold
(Nominal (Nomina
Value) l)
DJIA
(Nominal
Value) 1
Gold
(Nominal) 0.044444 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.044444
R Square 0.001975
Adjusted R
Square -0.00137
Standard
Error 1397.383
Observations 300

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
115169 0.5898
Regression 1 1151694 4 02 0.443104
5.82E+0 195268
Residual 298 8 0
5.83E+0
Total 299 8

Coefficien Standar Lower Upper Lower Upper

ts d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
200.849 20.384 1.91E- 4489.4 3698.9 4489.4
Intercept 4094.213 3 51 58 3698.95 76 5 76
-
0.16326 0.7679 0.4431 0.4466 0.1959 0.4466
X Variable 1 0.125383 2 86 04 -0.19591 75 1 75
Appendix F Correlation 1990-2015
DJIA Gold
(Nominal (Nomina
Value) l)
DJIA
(Nominal
Value) 1
Gold
(Nominal) 0.954566 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.951854
R Square 0.906025
Adjusted R
Square 0.90571
Standard
Error 1107.397
Observations 300

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
3.52E+0 3.52E+0 2873.0
Regression 1 9 9 6 4.6E-155
3.65E+0 122632
Residual 298 8 8
3.89E+0
Total 299 9

Coefficien
Standard P- Lower Upper Lower Upper
ts Error t Stat value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
162.291 20.2231 7.57E- 3601.42 2962.65 3601.42
Intercept 3282.039 2 5 58 2962.657 1 7 1
0.01654 53.6009 4.6E- 0.91939 0.85427 0.91939
X Variable 1 0.886836 5 3 155 0.854276 7 6 7
Appendix G Scatterplot
DJIA (Nominal Value)
20000
y = 10.176x + 351.06
18000 R² = 0.6753

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Appendix H Regression
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.821784
R Square 0.675329
Adjusted R
Square 0.67506
Standard
Error 2479.948
Observation
s 1209

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
1.54E+1 2510.60
Regression 1 1.54E+10 0 8 4E-297
615014
Residual 1207 7.42E+09 0
Total 1208 2.29E+10

Coefficien Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper

ts Error
t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
4.07744 4.85E- 519.980 182.142 519.980
Intercept 351.0613 86.09831 8 05 182.1424 3 4 3
Gold 50.1059 10.5747 9.77779 10.5747
(Nominal) 10.17626 0.203095 7 4E-297 9.777798 1 8 1
Appendix I Forecaster

INPUT
DESIRED VALUE

Gold Value= 0 DJIA= 351.0613

Iinput a desired price of gold to receive the predicted value

of the DJIA