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MYTHS ABOUT HOME BUYING

Millennials never
Avocado toast is Will buy
want to own
to blame everything online
ANYTHING
GAME CHANGERS IN HOUSING

Millennials Drop in
Minorities are Long Life
Out-Number Marriage
Growing Spans
Boomers Rates
RISE IN HOUSEHOLD INCOME SUCCESSFUL BUYERS

$97,500
$90,000
$88,800
$85,700

$74,000 $75,000

$58,600
$50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All Buyers First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


FIRST-TIME BUYERS REMAIN SUPRESSED

60%
50%

34%

30% 32%

Historical norm: 39% among primary residence buyers

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


MEDIAN AGE OF HOME BUYERS

55 54

45

36
32
29
25

All Buyers First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


FIRST TIME BUYERS: MARRIAGE NOT REQUIRED

80% 75%

68% 57%

27% 18%
16%
7%
% 2%

Married Couple Single Female Single Male Unmarried Couple Other

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


EVERYONE WANTS A SIMILAR HOME

2 bath

3 bed

Single family home

Suburbs & small towns


Close friends & family
w/short commute
2018 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends Report
MEDIAN WEEKS HOME ON MARKET

12 11

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


EXPECTED YEARS OF TENURE

16
15

10
9

4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


ACTUAL YEARS TENURE IN HOME IS ELEVATED

12

10

5
4

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


DOWNPAYMENT KNOWLEDGE GAP

Wrong idea: 87%


non-owners need
10% or MORE Reality: Typical for
first-time buyers
5%

Aspiring Home Buyers, 2017


DIFFICULTY SAVING FOR DOWN-PAYMENT
30%
26%
25% 25%
23%
20%
17% 17%
16%

7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
6%
5% 5%

0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers
Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
STUDENT DEBT MASSIVE BARRIER

$12.0 $1.4

$8.0
$0.2
$4.0

$0.0

Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other


NY Federal Reserve: Household Debt and Credit Report
HOW CAN YOU SAVE?

Median Student Loan


Debt: $41,200
Median Income:
$38,800

Student Loan Debt and Housing Report


NON-HOMEOWNERS: DELAY BUYING A HOUSE

100%
83%

MEDIAN DELAY: 7 YEARS

7% 5%
3% 2%
%
Yes, impacted No impact on ability No, helped ability Don't know Don't want to own
to purchase

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


HOMEOWNERS: DELAY SELLING AND BUYING A NEW HOME

No, loans did not


delay selling a home 45%

Yes, too expensive to


move & upgrade to a
new home 21%

Yes, problems w/loans


impacted credit for a 4%
future mortgage

Yes, underwater on 3%
home/ loans limited
ability to pay

% 50%

Student Loan Debt and Housing Report


BUYERS WITH STUDENT LOAN DEBT

All First-time Repeat


Buyers Buyers Buyers
Have student loan debt 26% 41% 19%

Median amount student loan $25,000 $29,000 $24,000


debt

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


FIRST-TIME BUYER: PRIOR LIVING ARRANGEMENT

100%
82%
73%

21%
12%
0%

Rented Owned
Lived w/ parents, relatives or friends Rented the home purchased

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


FORGOTTEN GENERATION: GEN XERS

13% had
Longest distressed
delay: sale
4 yrs
Highest
income
&
in debt
$28k
student
loans
17%
stalled
selling
Census
1890
1892
1894
1896
1898
1900
1902
1904
1906
1908
1910
1912
1914
1916
1918
1920
1923
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941

Recession
1943
1945
43.6

1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE 1890-2017

1981
1983
1985
Depression or

1987
Great Recession

1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
69.2

2009
2011
2013
2015
63.9%

2017
33%
53%
73%

Census
1982
1983

U.S.
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

45 to 54 years
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
55 to 64 years

2000
2001
Less than 35 years

2002
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE, BY AGE

2003
2004
2005
43.1%

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
35 to 44 years

2012
2013
65 years and over

2014
2015
2016
2017
59.%

35.3%
78.7%
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE, BY RACE
80%
72.3%
70%
63.9%
60% 57.2%
50.8%
50%
46.2%
42.3%
40%

U.S. Non-Hispanic White


Black American Indian or Alaskan Native
Asian or Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander Hispanic or Latino
Census
SUCCESSFUL HOME BUYER PRICE DIVIDE

African-American/Black
Family/friend gift downpayment: buyer: 9.2% less
3.6% more
Hispanic/Latino buyer:
Asian/Pacific Islander buyer: 10.8% less
17.4% more
Buyer w/ student loans:
Single female: 3.1% more 16.9% less

Doctoral Work Using Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


THERE ARE MSA DIFFERENCES IN RESULTS

Affordable—Birmingham
• Student debt= -8.8%
& Flagler Beach
High Prices—San Diego,
• Student debt = -31.1%
Portland, & DC
Low Unemployment—
• Student debt= -23%
Boulder
Higher Unemployment–
• Student debt= -13.4%
Areas in CA, AZ, NJ

Doctoral Work Using Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


FOCUS GROUP RESULTS: NON-OWNERS

Want
to be
owners

Some
In high
default
cost
current
areas
/past Non-
owners

No
family Some
help live at
loans/ home
house
Doctoral Work Using Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
FOCUS GROUP RESULTS: OWNERS

Family
help!

Bought
More
before
likely to
be older Owners degree/
home
& White
price rise

Sacrifices
home
quality &
location

Doctoral Work Using Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


BUYER USAGE OF AGENTS

100%
87%

0%
1981
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
2000
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Real estate agent/broker Builder/builder's agent Previous owner
Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME)
AGENT-ASSISTED SALES AT ALL-TIME HIGH
100%
89%

21%
15%
8%
0%

All FSBO (For-sale-by-owner) Agent-assisted Other

Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers


APPLE PIE AND HOMEOWNERSHIP

8 in 10 part of their
American Dream
Pie
9 in 10 want to own
in the future
BABIES WITH 4 LEGS

99% part of Important: 85% ½ undertook


family & 89% large home renovations for
would NOT give
95% housing pets
up pet due to
housing community

Animal House: Remodeling Impact


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