Voter ID Laws and Party ID

Austin J Dyami Adams

April 20th, 2018

 Voter identification (Voter ID) laws have increasingly been the center of discussion

during election seasons. As seen in Figure 1 in the appendix, photo ID laws range in how strict

they are across states. Some argue that voter IDs protect the State from voter fraud, as they

disallow those who cannot legally obtain them from voting. Opponents argue these laws are

discriminatory, as there are many (predominately minority) citizens who do not have the means

to obtain these IDs (Brennan Center).

In reviewing existing research, it seems claims of voter fraud are unsubstantiated. Since

2000, over one billion ballots have been cast, and just 31 credible allegations of voter fraud have

been made. Of these cases, most were honest mistakes, not actual cases of voter fraud (Levitt,

2014). If the primary argument supporting these laws is that they prevent voter fraud, but voter

fraud is incredibly low, there must be some other reason why states have these laws. So, then, the

puzzle I address is: why do states have voter ID laws?

In recent news media, President Donald Trump has again perpetuated a false claim that

voter fraud is happening in the millions in the United States, and he was supported by many

Republican outlets (Watkins, 2018). Because it seems that Republicans are the only ones to

support these claims, the hypothesis put forward in this paper is that Republican (red) states are

more likely to have stricter voter ID laws than Democratic (blue) states. As shown in Figure 1,

strictness levels of voter ID laws are ranked in five levels, with the least strict voter ID laws

being no laws at all. In order to support the hypothesis, the analysis will discuss three

measurements of the Party ID and ideology of a state. If the hypothesis holds, we should expect

the most conservative, Republican states to have the strictest laws, while the most liberal,

Democratic states to have no laws at all.

 The first measurement used (Figure 2) is whether a state gave all or a majority of their

electoral votes to Republican Nominee Donald Trump. There are seven states in Figure 1 that are

categorized as having the strictest voter ID laws. Of these seven, six states identify as Republican

under the first measurement, or roughly 86%. Of the sixteen states with no voter ID laws at all

(therefore the least strict), twelve are blue states, or 75%. Thus, the hypothesis holds for the first

measure.

The second measure used (Figure 3) is how conservative or liberal residents of a state

self-report themselves to be. Of the seven strictest states, four are moderate-to-strongly

conservative, which is 57%. Of the sixteen states with no voter ID laws, six are moderate-to-

strongly liberal, which is just roughly 38%. The hypothesis does not seem to hold as strongly for

the first measure, perhaps implying that the ideology of a state’s residents is not akin to that of

the state’s policies.

The final measure used (Figure 4) is whether a state is being run by a trifecta government

by either party. Of the seven strictest states, six are run by Republican trifectas, or roughly 86%.

Of the sixteen states with no voter ID laws, fourteen either have Democratic trifectas or no

trifecta at all, which is roughly 88%. Thus, the hypothesis seems to hold for the third measure as

well.

The second measurement is different from the first and third in that it directly measures

ideology of residents in a state, rather than party ID. The lack of support towards the hypothesis

from this measurement relative to the others may thus suggest that voter ID laws are not a

product of ideology and party ID, but instead a product of party ID alone. This finding seems

logical in light of the fact that the Black population, who again is most affected by Voter ID

laws, consistently votes Democrat in U.S. elections (Kirsanow, 2011).

 Works Cited
“Citizens Without Proof.” Brennan Center for Justice, New York University School of Law, 28
Nov. 2006, www.brennancenter.org/analysis/citizens-without-proof.
Florida, Richard. “The (Still) Conservative States of America.” CityLab, University of Toronto’s
Martin Prosperity Institute, 9 Feb. 2017, www.citylab.com/equity/2017/02/the-still-
conservative-states-of-america/515592/.
“Gubernatorial and Legislative Party Control of State Government.” Ballotpedia, Ballotpedia,
2016, ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_and_legislative_party_control_of_state_government.
Justin Levitt, “A Comprehensive Investigation of Voter Impersonation Finds 31 Credible
Incidents Out of One Billion Ballots Cast,” Washington Post, August 6, 2014,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/08/06/a-comprehensive-
investigation-of-voter-impersonation-finds-31-credible-incidents-out-of-one-billion-
ballots-cast/.
Kiersz, Andy. “Here's What the US Electoral Map Looks like Adjusted for Population.”
Business Insider, Business Insider, 16 Nov. 2016, www.businessinsider.com/2016-
election-results-maps-population-adjusted-cartogram-2016-11.
Kirsanow, Peter. “Blacks, Democrats, and Republicans.” National Review, National Review,
Mar. 2011, www.nationalreview.com/corner/blacks-democrats-and-republicans-peter-
kirsanow/.
Underhill, Wendy. “Voter ID Laws.” NCSL.org, National Conference of State Legislatures, 5
Jan. 2018, www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx.
Watkins, Eli. “Trump Repeats Debunked Voter Fraud Claim.” CNN, Cable News Network, 5
Apr. 2018, www.cnn.com/2018/04/05/politics/trump-voter-fraud-california/index.html.
 Appendix

Figure 1

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx

Figure 4 is a map that shows voter ID laws in 2018. This figure is compared to Figures 1-3 to

understand whether states with stricter voter ID laws are more Republican.
 Figure 2

http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-election-results-maps-population-adjusted-cartogram-

2016-11

Figure 1 is a map that shows the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. States in red are

those that gave all or a majority of their electoral votes to Republican Nominee Donald Trump,

while those in blue gave all or a majority of their electoral votes to Democratic Nominee Hillary

Clinton. Using this measure is effective because it shows us the aggregate party vote for the

state, which hints to the majority party ID of each state. If the hypothesis holds, we should expect

states with voter ID laws to be predominantly red states.

 Figure 3

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/02/the-still-conservative-states-of-america/515592/

Figure 2 is a map that displays self-reported ideology by state, above the national average. This

measure is important because it allows us to look into the strength of Republican ideology held

by residents in a state. Essentially, being more conservative is akin to being more Republican

with respect to being Democratic. Like Figure 1, this measure effectively looks at the ideology of

voters in each state. Thus, if the hypothesis holds, we should see that red states should vary in

their strictness of voter ID laws by how conservative (or how Republican) they are. More

conservative states should have stricter voter ID laws, per the hypothesis.
 Figure 4

https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_and_legislative_party_control_of_state_government

Figure 3 is a map that shows which states currently have a Republican or Democratic trifecta. A

government trifecta is a situation where one party controls each house of the legislature and the

executive office which controls the veto power. In general, a party with the trifecta advantage

has the ability to pass and sign a bill without interruption for the opposing party. Unlike Figures

1 and 2, this measure exists at a party level. Together, if the three measurements yield the same

conclusion, we can be confident in our hypothesis, as it holds true at both a micro and macro

level of analysis. This measure is effective for two reasons. First, a Republican trifecta implies a

more conservative electorate, as there are fewer Democrats elected. Second, a Republican

trifecta also implies that an overwhelming majority of passed policies will be from the

Republican agenda, due to lack of Democratic interference. Thus, if the hypothesis holds, we

should expect to see the strictest voter ID laws in states with Republican trifectas, and no voter

ID laws at all in states with Democratic trifectas or no trifecta, as no trifecta implies interference

and therefore no legislation passed at all in this area.