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Uncertainty analysis
Johny Samaan
Reservoir engineer
18 Dec-2009
Introduction
Target
Everybody involved in the actual generation of data for hydrocarbon resource volume
management (HCRVM),
e.g. Geoscientists, Subsurface Engineers, Economists, Planners.
Objective
Describe the main procedures & definitions related to the subject
List and apply the main estimating techniques used.
Key messages
Some best practices in dealing with uncertainty and reserves estimating
– Volumetric & performance based estimating methods, probabilistic & deterministic
– Use “old-fashioned” res eng practice to back-up/validate simulation results
– Module is not meant to replace general foundation courses
Performance Based Reserves Estimation
Used once sufficient production data available
(Material Balance) p/Z plots
Decline curves
Analytical calculation
History matched simulation
Each has its uses, but the limitations of each need to be properly understood; need
to understand the physics.
Reality checks
Forecast should seamlessly match historical production trends
Remaining field life duration must be realistic.
“Uncertainty” is caused by our inability to quantify exactly the static properties and
exactly predict the dynamic behavior of the subsurface
Low ?
P90
downside
variety of qualifier
Mid creates confusion !
P50 Most
1.0
Likely How to ensure
Base
consistency ?
?
P15 High
0.5
P10
mean,
Expectatio
? upside
n ?
0
0 50 100
Reserves (MMm3)
Resource Volume Determination Methods over Field Life
Volumetric Estimates
(or Analogue Recovery)
Performance Based
Estimates
Discovery Production Abandon
TIME
HCIIP
HCIIP==GRV N/GxxΦ
GRVxxN/G Φ xxSSHC / FVF
HC / FVF
Net-to-gross
Net-to-gross ratio,
ratio, Porosity
Porosity Formation
Formation volume
volume factor
factor
Reservoir
Reservoir model
model HC
HC model
model
(HC
(HC charge
charge history)
history) PVT
PVT data
data
Well
Well data
data
Volumetric Probabilistic Approach
Ultimate Recovery = 100
GRV x Φ x N/G x Shc x (1/Bo) x RF Expectation:
Cumulative Probability
P85 probability-weighted
Monte Carlo or
average
GRV Moment Processing
P50
Probability Density Functions
N/G
P15
Φ
0
Shc Ultimate
Recovery
(1/Bo)
RFo
Volumetric Method
16 00
1700
15
1400
00 1700
1 600
gas
13 00
1600
1 5 00
Pore
1500
1400 oil
1200 1400 space
0 water
20
15
C
W
O
OWC OWC
(Range
(Rangeof
ofpossible)
possible) Reservoir unit geometry “Reservoir Units Parallel to Bottom”
GOC
GOC Interface between upper
and lower reservoir unit
(Range
(Rangeof
ofpossible)
possible) Gross Thickness Lower Unit
OWC
OWC DEPTH
Area/depth data,
Fluid contacts, Gross AREA
thickness
GRV – Combined Uncertainties
Base Case
20°
60°
Minimum Maximum
15°
25° 50°
70°
Reservoir Properties – Sources of uncertainty
Core data, sidewall samples, cuttings
Core N/G uncertainty in the order of 5-10%
air
Pnw-Pw
A1 A1
water
h∆ρg B1 B1
height
air C1 C1 free water
A B C level
water
pressure
Capillary Pressure and Fluid Distribution
GGGGGWGGGWGGGGGW
WGGGGWGGGGWGGGGG
GGGWGGGWGGGWGGGG
GGWGGWOGGWGGOGGG
OGWGGGWOGGWGOGGG
WGOGOGOGWGWGOGWG
OOWGGOOWOWGGOWGO
OGOGWOGOWOOOGOWO
GOOWOOGOOOWOWGOO
WOOOOWOOGOOWOOGO
region of OOOOWOOOOWGOOOOW
OOWOOOOWOOOOWOOO
irreducible OOOOOOWOOOOOWOOO
WOOOOOOOWWOOWOOW
water saturation OOOWOOOOWOOOOOWO
OOOOOOOWOOOOOWOW
OOOOWOOOOWOOOOWO
Pc WOOWOOOOOOOWOOOW
OOOWOOOOWOOOOWOO
or WOOOOWOOOOOWOOOO
WOOOOWOOOOWOOOOO
h OOOWOOOOWOOOOWOO
OWOOOOWOOOOWOOWO
OOOWOOOWOOOWOOOW
WOWOOWOOWOOWOOWO
OOWOOWOOWOOWOOWO
WOOWOOWOOWOOWOOW
transition zone OOWOOWOOWOOWOOWO
WOWOWOWOWOWOWOW
OWOWOWOWOWOWOWO
Swc WWOWOWWOWWOWWOW
WWWOWWWOWWWOWWW
OWWWWWOWWWWWOWW
WWWWOWWWWWWOWWW
WOWWWOWWWWOWWWW
0 100 WWWOWWWWWWWOWWW
water saturation WWWWOWWWWWWWWW
Fluid Properties are used to:
To identify markets
Reservoir and Surface Volumes
1 m3
Rp m3
Rs m3
Bg m3
Bo m3
1 m3
Bw m3 1 m3
RESERVOIR SURFACE
Fluid Properties Uncertainties
Some physics
Material balance
Analytical calculations
Full physics
Numerical simulation
RANGE OF PRIMARY RECOVERY FACTORS
Typical maximum
65 - 70%
achievable
Simulation Uncertainty - Introduction
Focus on Reservoir Engineering uncertainty
• Fault Analysis
• Aquifer volume and productivity index
• Fluid models-contact levels
• Well completions
Selection of uncertainty parameters
After 5 runs
Field Water cut
Make Fluid Model process: Contact levels
Task: Add to the existing workflow
“Contact uncertainty” the execution of
a simulation case where the “Make
fluid model” depends on the varying
water contact
The case:
• Previously we studied the
effect of a fluctuating fluid
contact in the Make
contacts process
• The same uncertainty could
be used to define the
initialization of our
simulation model in the
“Make fluid model”
Make Fluid Model process: Contact levels
1) Define variables:
=> Number of contacts to
investigate
2) Define the distribution for
the uncertain variables
500 picks from the above distributions would yield the following distributions for C1 and C2
Fluid model uncertainty: Results after 5 runs
Task:
• By varying the aquifer volume and the
productivity index, the Fetkovich model can
encompass a range of aquifer behaviour from
steady state to the ‘pot’ aquifer.
• The aquifer volume and productivity index are
made uncertain in order to see how much
modelling the aquifer improves the oil recovery
The case:
• A reservoir with a large aquifer
• The Fetkovich aquifer model uses a simplified
approach based on a pseudosteady-state
productivity index and a material balance
relationship between the aquifer pressure and the
cumulative influx.
Aquifer Modelling: Fetkovich Aquifer Volume and
productivity index
1. Define the variables under the Variables tab (i.e. their uncertainty
ranges)
2. Define $AQ_PI and $AQ_VOL as being a list of 5 values. $AQ_PI=
list(100, 400, 600, 800, 1500, 2000) and $AQ_VOL=list(20000000,
100000000, 150000000, 200000000, 20000000000, 200000000000)
Aquifer modelling uncertainty: Results after 5 runs