Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, June 2018 1

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Lake Research Partners
Re: WA-03 Poll Results
Date: June 20, 2018

Our recent survey of likely November 2018 general election voters in Washington’s 3rd Congressional
District shows incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler much more vulnerable than she has been in
previous election cycles.1 As the race stands today, Democrat Carolyn Long is only 5 points behind Herrera
Beutler.

Initial Ballot

42
37
20
27 31

Long JHB Undecided

The gap between the two candidates closes very quickly, with the race tied after voters hear positive profiles
of both candidates. On the informed ballot, independent voters support Long by a 15-point margin, with
Long leading Herrera Beutler 45% to 30%.

Informed Ballot

43 43

34 13
31

Long JHB Undecided

1
Lake Research Partners conducted a live telephone survey among 500 likely November 2018 general election voters in
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District. The survey was conducted June 14-18, 2018 and has a margin of error of +/-4.4%.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, June 2018 2

Herrera Beutler is vulnerable in this district, with her job performance underwater by 11 points. Just 37%
of voters say she is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 48% who say she is doing a just fair or
poor job. Further, a majority of independents (50%) say she is doing a just fair or poor job.

Herrera Beutler Job Performance

48
37
26 24 24
15
11

Excellent Good Just Fair Poor (Don't Know)

With enough resources to communicate her message, Long is in a strong position to compete and win in
a very competitive district.

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Please do not hesitate to reach out to David Mermin (dmermin@lakeresearch.com) at 202-776-9066 should you have
any questions about this memo.