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Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9999219434
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.9998438928
R^2 ajustado 0.9998092024
Error típico 0.8574906419
Observaciones 12
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresión 2 42384.8507536273 21192.4254 28821.852
Residuos 9 6.6176118083 0.7352902
Total 11 42391.4683654357
P P. Efectiva: PE (mm)
Precipitación Efectiva (m m)
mm Curva I Curva II Curva III
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
20.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 Figura 1 : Porción de Precipitación Efectiva Según Bureao Of Reclamation
Enero 30 131.1 43.7 66.3 67.8 0.000 0.0 0.093 0.8 67.0
Febrero 28 237.5 170.7 208.6 211.1 0.000 0.0 0.289 2.5 208.7
Marzo 31 201.9 117.0 152.1 154.5 0.000 0.0 0.211 1.8 152.7
Abril 30 137.0 48.2 72.1 73.6 0.694 2.9 0.101 0.9 75.7
Mayo 31 118.2 34.5 54.4 55.7 0.469 2.0 0.076 0.7 57.0
Junio 30 78.9 14.1 25.6 26.3 0.334 1.4 0.036 0.3 27.4
Julio 31 59.1 7.6 15.1 15.6 0.220 0.9 0.021 0.2 16.4
Agosto 31 39.7 3.4 7.6 7.9 0.151 0.6 0.011 0.1 8.4
Setiem. 30 50.9 5.6 11.6 12.0 0.111 0.5 0.016 0.1 12.3
Octubre 31 78.0 13.7 25.0 25.7 0.071 0.3 0.035 0.3 25.7
Noviem. 30 81.9 15.3 27.4 28.2 0.000 0.0 0.039 0.3 27.9
Diciem. 31 113.8 31.8 50.7 51.9 0.000 0.0 0.071 0.6 51.3
AÑO 1328.0 505.6 716.5 730.4 2.050 8.5 1.000 8.5 730.4
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGOST SEPT OCT
2000 27.9 205.2 234.7 99.3 83.8 33.6 17.8 9.0 37.7 6.5
2001 83.3 131.8 75.7 63.5 33.1 58.4 22.6 13.1 21.0 33.0
2002 66.4 172.4 75.3 74.9 66.3 8.6 10.9 0.0 6.2 48.7
2003 65.8 97.2 149.9 55.2 110.2 30.1 11.6 0.8 5.4 16.3
2004 33.7 49.8 167.3 58.8 29.9 35.3 11.2 2.5 3.2 47.2
2005 14.4 211.7 164.1 87.5 14.6 21.7 0.6 1.8 3.1 14.9
2006 57.6 158.8 230.6 63.8 14.3 16.9 8.0 0.8 5.8 20.8
2007 88.7 125.7 247.8 58.4 67.4 57.3 5.5 20.6 1.4 30.8
2008 54.5 268.8 143.6 89.3 27.8 21.4 38.9 7.8 4.8 40.3
2009 106.0 154.6 201.6 75.1 42.2 21.4 17.2 21.1 22.5 11.2
2010 49.3 314.8 77.3 66.7 58.7 24.2 3.1 11.6 30.8 21.8
2011 52.4 198.8 71.8 85.5 87.2 19.9 47.6 9.7 27.9 54.5
2012 116.5 239.6 117.3 77.4 81.3 31.3 11.9 12.6 8.6 36.1
2013 128.1 80.1 101.5 37.7 75.3 28.1 41.2 13.7 10.1 17.2
2014 74.8 491.1 209.7 86.1 51.3 7.1 1.3 0.3 2.0 6.8
2015 65.2 477.7 203.3 98.9 48.2 6.3 0.7 0.1 1.5 5.7
MAX 128.1 491.1 247.8 99.3 110.2 58.4 47.6 21.1 37.7 54.5
MED 67.8 211.1 154.5 73.6 55.7 26.3 15.6 7.9 12.0 25.7
MIN 14.4 49.8 71.8 37.7 14.3 6.3 0.6 0.0 1.4 5.7
D.EST 31.3 126.9 62.4 17.1 27.9 15.2 14.9 7.2 11.9 16.1
Fuente: Elaboración propia
Año Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct.
2000 -0.746145 0.754965 -2.22164 0.28052 0.074693 -0.86156 0.71953 -0.33337 -1.31218 -0.40421
2001 1.744233 0.449465 -0.79033 0.77464 -0.541161 -0.59328 0.8002 -0.53312 1.17974 0.18398
2002 -0.515215 1.112323 -0.54426 0.16658 1.182193 0.43126 -0.79232 -1.4739 1.18775 -0.91595
2003 -1.787889 1.211313 0.14946 0.90323 1.24315 0.2656 0.49817 -1.07055 -1.73658 1.53386
2004 0.635969 0.07876 0.085975 0.61218 1.750218 -1.85969 -0.26964 -0.0298 -0.18491 -1.03409
2005 0.277103 0.693312 -1.05481 0.33596 -0.611806 -0.30648 0.08206 -0.1095 0.14961 -1.56329
2006 -0.860898 1.362114 1.227399 1.13127 0.722503 -0.34878 1.05588 0.34902 0.47543 -0.25333
2007 0.904724 0.862451 0.12205 -1.71189 -0.40845 0.64819 -0.72957 -0.09266 0.92918 0.24725
2008 -1.32422 0.050013 0.138406 -0.6355 1.353651 0.04029 1.55889 0.75863 2.32256 0.11997
2009 -0.360019 0.039445 0.273845 0.52555 0.410447 0.10996 0.51347 -1.61775 -0.39775 -0.08175
2010 -0.341714 1.507601 0.303835 -1.20702 -0.435208 -2.02697 -1.39617 0.08928 0.54551 0.76487
2011 -1.508556 0.241657 0.245598 0.18997 1.443536 0.90576 -0.20425 1.83938 -0.80823 -0.02835
2012 1.048822 0.399734 0.12575 -1.13054 0.23717 -1.17912 0.55431 -1 -0.0602 -1.60931
2013 -1.301401 -0.28546 -2.16092 0.22201 -1.136068 -0.35456 0.58246 -1.24647 -1.04697 -0.9716
2014 -0.511288 -1.5245 -0.53568 -0.86991 1.064734 1.33328 0.86723 1.1459 -1.24997 -0.10426
2015 0.730571 -0.26599 -2.47221 -0.38569 -0.519675 -0.1075 0.23819 1.80129 -0.71409 0.22334
MAX. 1.744 1.508 1.227 1.131 1.750 1.333 1.559 1.839 2.323 1.534
MED. -0.245 0.418 -0.444 -0.050 0.364 -0.244 0.255 -0.095 -0.045 -0.243
MIN. -1.788 -1.524 -2.472 -1.712 -1.136 -2.027 -1.396 -1.618 -1.737 -1.609
D.EST 1.033 0.763 1.055 0.840 0.904 0.922 0.769 1.077 1.105 0.828
Fuente: Elaboración propia
Año Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct.
Prom. 67.0 208.7 152.7 75.7 57.0 27.4 16.4 8.4 12.3 25.7
2000 67.5 210.3 152.8 75.6 56.7 27.0 15.9 7.8 11.5 25.6
2001 67.4 212.7 154.5 75.9 56.9 26.3 15.3 7.2 10.9 25.1
2002 67.5 214.8 156.4 76.0 56.8 26.1 14.9 6.7 10.4 24.5
2003 67.5 217.6 157.5 76.4 56.2 25.7 14.4 6.2 9.9 24.2
2004 68.0 221.1 158.4 76.8 56.4 25.2 14.0 5.6 9.5 23.5
2005 68.6 222.9 159.4 76.8 56.8 24.9 13.6 5.1 9.0 23.2
2006 68.8 225.3 159.7 77.1 57.2 24.6 13.2 4.5 8.5 22.8
2007 68.7 228.1 159.8 77.5 57.1 23.8 12.7 3.7 8.0 22.3
2008 68.9 229.5 161.1 77.5 57.3 23.5 11.9 3.1 7.5 21.8
2009 68.6 232.0 161.7 77.8 57.5 23.1 11.4 2.3 6.7 21.4
2010 68.9 233.0 163.7 78.0 57.4 22.7 10.9 1.6 5.9 21.0
2011 69.1 235.2 165.7 78.2 57.1 22.3 10.0 0.8 5.1 20.2
2012 68.7 237.0 167.4 78.3 56.8 21.8 9.4 0.1 4.4 19.6
2013 68.2 240.6 169.2 79.0 56.5 21.3 8.6 -0.7 3.8 19.2
2014 68.2 239.9 169.9 79.1 56.5 21.0 8.1 -1.4 3.2 18.9
2015 68.3 239.3 170.7 79.0 56.6 20.8 7.6 -2.1 2.6 18.6
MAX. 69.1 240.6 170.7 79.1 57.5 27.0 15.9 7.8 11.5 25.6
MED. 68.3 227.4 161.7 77.4 56.9 23.8 12.0 3.2 7.3 22.0
MIN. 67.4 210.3 152.8 75.6 56.2 20.8 7.6 -2.1 2.6 18.6
D.EST 0.6 10.0 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.0 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.3
Fuente: Elaboración propia
Año Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct.
30 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31
2000 30.080 100.435 65.903 33.686 24.466 12.035 6.847 3.372 5.138 11.025
2001 30.042 101.592 66.673 33.814 24.552 11.725 6.611 3.103 4.861 10.829
2002 30.077 102.571 67.462 33.891 24.494 11.644 6.419 2.884 4.648 10.556
2003 30.112 103.948 67.932 34.062 24.237 11.461 6.223 2.658 4.427 10.428
2004 30.303 105.588 68.334 34.220 24.338 11.244 6.023 2.423 4.215 10.153
2005 30.587 106.454 68.755 34.247 24.505 11.090 5.867 2.185 4.000 10.016
2006 30.674 107.605 68.891 34.386 24.679 10.955 5.677 1.947 3.769 9.853
2007 30.621 108.945 68.949 34.547 24.616 10.630 5.490 1.615 3.554 9.642
2008 30.721 109.595 69.479 34.570 24.733 10.466 5.153 1.334 3.322 9.383
2009 30.585 110.830 69.759 34.662 24.786 10.297 4.905 0.983 2.997 9.250
2010 30.711 111.295 70.606 34.791 24.764 10.108 4.711 0.671 2.628 9.069
2011 30.823 112.346 71.496 34.838 24.616 9.941 4.315 0.364 2.261 8.734
2012 30.644 113.216 72.199 34.922 24.490 9.712 4.073 0.032 1.979 8.471
2013 30.401 114.899 72.982 35.195 24.385 9.496 3.693 -0.313 1.681 8.290
2014 30.404 114.560 73.298 35.246 24.390 9.376 3.487 -0.599 1.414 8.154
2015 30.455 114.285 73.644 35.239 24.407 9.255 3.277 -0.889 1.145 8.020
MAX. 30.823 114.899 73.644 35.246 24.786 12.035 6.847 3.372 5.138 11.025
MED. 30.453 108.635 69.773 34.520 24.529 10.590 5.173 1.361 3.253 9.492
MIN. 30.042 100.435 65.903 33.686 24.237 9.255 3.277 -0.889 1.145 8.020
D.EST 0.260 4.793 2.383 0.506 0.160 0.896 1.153 1.375 1.282 0.976
Fuente: Elaboración propia
CUADRO N° 10: ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA DE DESCARGAS GENERADAS (m3/s) - CUENCA ALTO PIURA
PERIODO: 2000 - 2015
Departamento: Cajamarca latitud: 5° 28’
Provincia: Huancabamba longitud: 79° 20’
Distrito: Sondorillo Altitud: 2233 msnm
Orden Frec. Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set.
1 5.9 30.823 114.899 73.644 35.239 24.786 12.035 6.847 3.372 5.138
2 11.8 30.721 114.560 73.298 35.246 24.764 11.725 6.611 3.103 4.861
3 17.6 30.711 114.285 72.982 35.195 24.733 11.644 6.419 2.884 4.648
4 23.5 30.674 113.216 72.199 34.922 24.679 11.461 6.223 2.658 4.427
5 29.4 30.644 112.346 71.496 34.838 24.616 11.244 6.023 2.423 4.215
6 35.3 30.621 111.295 70.606 34.791 24.616 11.090 5.867 2.185 4.000
7 41.2 30.587 110.830 69.759 34.662 24.552 10.955 5.677 1.947 3.769
8 47.1 30.585 109.595 69.479 34.570 24.505 10.630 5.490 1.615 3.554
9 52.9 30.455 108.945 68.949 34.547 24.494 10.466 5.153 1.334 3.322
10 58.8 30.404 107.605 68.891 34.386 24.490 10.297 4.905 0.983 2.997
11 64.7 30.401 106.454 68.755 34.247 24.466 10.108 4.711 0.671 2.628
12 70.6 30.303 105.588 68.334 34.220 24.407 9.941 4.315 0.364 2.261
13 76.5 30.112 103.948 67.932 34.062 24.390 9.712 4.073 0.032 1.979
14 82.4 30.080 102.571 67.462 33.891 24.385 9.496 3.693 -0.313 1.681
15 88.2 30.077 101.592 66.673 33.814 24.338 9.376 3.487 -0.599 1.414
16 94.1 30.042 100.435 65.903 33.686 24.237 9.255 3.277 -0.889 1.145
P(25%) 30.666 112.998 72.023 34.901 24.664 11.406 6.173 2.599 4.374
P(50%) 30.520 109.270 69.214 34.558 24.499 10.548 5.322 1.475 3.438
P(75%) 30.160 104.358 68.033 34.102 24.395 9.769 4.133 0.115 2.049
P(90%) 30.066 101.245 66.442 33.776 24.307 9.340 3.424 -0.686 1.333
MED. 30.453 108.635 69.773 34.520 24.529 10.590 5.173 1.361 3.253
Fuente: Elaboración propia
CAUDAL(m3/s)
59
39
19
-1
Cuadro N°2 : Coeficientes de
Cálculo - Precipitación Efectiva
CAUDALES
GENERADOS
m3/s
12
29.87
99.66
65.86
33.73
24.60
12.22
7.06
3.62
5.49
11.10
12.42
22.14
27.31
A ALTO PIURA CUADRO N° 5: PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (m.m) - CUENCA ALTO PIUR
PERIODO: 2000 - 2015
NOV DIC Total anual AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN
4.9 90.7 851.1 2000 53.9 230.8 306.8 184.8 177.7 100.6
42.4 56.3 634.2 2001 161.2 148.3 98.9 118.1 70.2 175.0
24.8 48.4 603.0 2002 128.4 194.0 98.5 139.3 140.6 25.9
24.3 52.7 619.2 2003 127.2 109.3 195.9 102.6 233.6 90.1
9.8 87.9 536.7 2004 65.2 56.0 218.7 109.3 63.5 105.8
21.6 29.8 585.7 2005 27.9 238.2 214.5 162.7 30.9 65.0
27.9 58.7 664.1 2006 111.4 178.7 301.5 118.7 30.4 50.7
83.0 48.9 835.4 2007 171.6 141.4 323.9 108.7 142.9 171.7
45.2 13.0 755.4 2008 105.4 302.4 187.7 166.2 58.9 64.1
24.1 29.1 726.1 2009 205.1 173.9 263.5 139.7 89.5 64.1
18.1 43.9 720.1 2010 95.4 354.1 101.0 124.1 124.5 72.4
60.0 103.9 819.1 2011 101.3 223.6 93.8 159.1 185.0 59.6
62.2 51.8 846.4 2012 225.4 269.5 153.3 143.9 172.5 93.7
1.3 41.6 576.0 2013 247.8 90.1 132.7 70.1 159.7 84.3
0.9 40.5 971.9 2014 144.7 552.5 274.1 160.2 108.8 21.4
0.6 33.8 942.1 2015 126.1 537.4 265.8 184.0 102.3 18.8
83.0 103.9 971.9 MAX 247.8 552.5 323.9 184.8 233.6 175.0
28.2 51.9 730.4 MED 131.1 237.5 201.9 137.0 118.2 78.9
0.6 13.0 536.7 MIN 27.9 56.0 93.8 70.1 30.4 18.8
24.4 24.1 135.5 D.EST 60.5 142.8 81.6 31.8 59.1 45.5
Nov. Dic.
0.46893 1.0639269
-0.41178 -0.044804
1.70958 0.024138
1.33889 -0.886332
-0.68536 2.6959606
-0.41036 -1.817407
-1.39435 0.9579571
-0.91212 0.8366601
0.50354 -1.64614
-0.41186 0.8133316
0.65065 -2.031775
-1.10328 0.6257949
0.46722 -0.312418
1.69685 0.6695757
0.58754 -1.442022
0.14451 -0.045188
1.710 2.696
0.140 -0.034
-1.394 -2.032
0.957 1.281
A ALTO PIURA
-0.0105
A ALTO PIURA
CA ALTO PIURA
ación Mensual de la Descarga para Cuatro Niveles de Persistencia - Río Alto Piura
P(25%)
P(50%)
P(75%)
P(90%)
Meses
.m) - CUENCA ALTO PIURA
ODO: 2000 - 2015