Professional Documents
Culture Documents
6%
250 5
4%
Total return in %
2% 200 4.5
0%
150 4
-2%
-4% 100 3.5
-6%
50 3
-8% Spread (ASW) / leverage in bp 10Y median spread/lev.
3Y median spread / lev. Median net debt adj. / EBITDA (adj)
-10% 0 2.5
Apr-16
Oct-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Feb-06
Jun-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Source: iBoxx, UniCredit Research
Risk compensation looking Ongoing easy access to financing and stagnating-to-receding earnings are elevating the
stretched…
downside risks. After trading wide at the beginning of the year and high yield still hovering
around reasonable valuation levels in 1H16, the ongoing rally in spreads has increasingly
been accompanied by rising leverage ratios in recent months. Median net debt/EBITDA crept
up to 4.4x at the end of August – the highest level since 2009 (grey line in the right chart).
This has suppressed risk compensation in high yield – as measured by the spread for one
unit of leverage (red line in the right chart) – to 81bp, the lowest level since mid-2007 and
about one third below the 10Y median of 114bp. While ongoing ECB purchases and
continued expansion may keep things calm for a while, the next consolidation phase could be
quite painful. Especially as development of the leverage ratio and risk compensation must be
balanced against a rating quality improvement in Europe since 2010. The share of BB issues
has climbed 6pp to 67% in the iBoxx HY NFI, meaning that risk compensation is not quite as
good as it was during the financial crisis – when about half the index’s issues were rated BB.
Risk compensation is well below its median value over the past three years (99bp, black
horizontal line). This comfort zone of risk compensation (red shaded area) between the 3Y
and 10Y median value (116bp, light red horizontal line) of spread-per-leverage suggests that
current risk premiums have substantially deviated from fundamentals.
…leaving investors exposed to Stretched fundamental valuations may prevail for some time, as history – and in particular the
increased downside risk
years leading up to the financial crisis – have shown. However, when the tables turn, history
has also shown – as recently as the beginning of the year – that the consolidation momentum
to overpricing can be high and does not necessarily stop at reasonable levels. The very
limited secondary trading capabilities, coupled with ultra-low yields, rising inflation rates
towards year-end, another rate hike by the Fed, and uncertainty following the Brexit vote all
add to significant downside risks – regardless of ECB asset purchases.
INDEX PERFORMANCE
Total return in %
4%
450 100
400 80 2%
350 60
0%
300 40
-2%
250 20
200 0 -4%
Apr-16
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Feb-16
Apr-16
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
4%
1,000
ASW-Spread (bp)
2%
800
0%
600
-2%
400
-4%
200
-6%
Sep-15
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
0
Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-1
80%
Average rating at issuance
12
70%
iBoxx HY Weight
10
60%
8 B
50%
6 40%
4 30%
2 CCC 20%
0 10%
Aug-11
Nov-11
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
May-16
Aug-16
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
ASW-Spread (bp)
iBoxx HY Weight
12% 1,200
60%
10% 1,000
50%
8% 800
40%
6% 600
30%
4% 400 20%
2% 200 10%
0% 0 0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
iBoxx Rebalancing
Sector Action Issuer iBoxx vol. Aug-16 (mn) iBoxx vol. Sep-16 (mn) ISIN Bond Volume
NFI OUT Fresenius 2,200 0 XS1013954646 FREGR 2.375% Feb-19 300
XS0759200321 FREGR 4.25% Apr-19 500
XS0873432511 FREGR 2.875% Jul-20 500
XS1013955379 FREGR 3% Feb-21 450
XS1026109204 FREGR 4% Feb-24 450
Gamenet 164 200 XS0954289913 GAMENT 7.25% Aug-18 164
Ineos 1,870 2,020 XS0928189777 INEGRP 6.5% Aug-18 500
Isolux 850 0 XS1046702293 ISOLUX 6.625% Apr-21 850
Lecta 1,091 600 XS0780141999 LECTA FRN May-18 291
XS0780068036 LECTA 8.875% May-19 200
Schaeffler 3,610 3,010 XS0923613060 SHAEFF 4.25% May-18 600
RED Huntsman 743 739 XS1395182683 HUN 4.25% Apr-25 -4
Innovia Films 342 267 XS1032974609 INNOGB FRN Mar-20 -75
Manutencoop 345 300 XS0808635352 MANTEN 8.5% Aug-20 -45
Petrobras 5,589 5,263 XS0982711631 PETBRA 2.75% Jan-18 -181
XS0716979249 PETBRA 4.875% Mar-18 -144
IN Adient 0 1,000 XS1468662801 ADGLHO 3.5% Aug-24 1,000
Axalta Coating Systems 250 585 XS1468538035 AXTA 4.25% Aug-24 335
Bulgarian Energy 500 1,050 XS1405778041 BULENR 4.875% Aug-21 550
Cellnex Telecom 600 1,350 XS1468525057 CLNXSM 2.375% Jan-24 750
Gamenet 164 200 XS1458462428 GAMENT 6% Aug-21 200
Ineos 1,870 2,020 XS1405769990 INEGRP 5.375% Aug-24 650
Schumann 0 400 XS1454980159 SCHMAN 7% Jul-23 400
Veritas US 0 262 XS1357678322 VERITS 7.5% Feb-23 262
TAP Horizon Holdings 525 725 XS1265903937 VERALL 5.125% Aug-22 +200
FNL OUT Alpha Bank 500 0 FR0010670422 ALPHA 10.653% Perp 500
Rating Actions
Rating Date Issuer Agency action Rating Type From To
29-Aug-16 Fortescue Metals (FMGAU) S&P Outlook NEG STABLE
Fitch Senior Unsecured Debt BB+ BB+
Outlook NEG STABLE
Vale (VALEBZ) S&P Outlook NEG STABLE
31-Aug-16 Caixa Geral de Depositos (CXGD) S&P watch positive Issuer Credit Rating BB- BB-*+
1-Sep-16 Progroup (PROGRP) Moody's upgrade Issue Rating B1 Ba2
Outlook STABLE STABLE
Voto-Votrantim (VOTORA) S&P remove watch Issuer Credit Rating BB+*- BB+
negative
Outlook NEG
HY Calendar
Mon, 05 Sep Tue, 06 Sep Wed, 07 Sep Thu, 08 Sep Fri, 09 Sep
-- -- Gestamp: 1H16 results Xella: 1H16 conference call --
at 11:00 CET
Recommendation Overview
Buy Hold Sell
Altice Agrokor Motherson Bilfinger
Amplifon Alain Afflelou Nokia Bombardier
Faurecia ALBA Group Ontex Hapag-Lloyd
Grupo Antolin Anglo American OTE Hellenic Telecom Hertz
Guala Closures ArcelorMittal Phoenix Peugeot
HeidelbergCement Ardagh Piaggio Stora Enso
IGT Areva RCS & RDS ThyssenKrupp
Italcementi Bormioli Rocco Schmolz & Bickenbach
LKQ Buzzi Unicem Smurfit Kappa
Manutencoop CABB Snai
Matterhorn Telecom Cirsa STADA
MOL CMC di Ravenna Sunrise
Onorato Armatori CNH Industrial Techem
Prada Douglas Telecom Italia
Sappi Europcar Telenet
Schaeffler FCA Tesco
SFR Group FMC TMF Group
Thomas Cook Gestamp TUI
Wind Goodyear United Group
ZF Friedrichshafen Groupe Casino Unitymedia
Hornbach UPC
HP Pelzer Vestas
Ineos Virgin Media
Inovyn Volvo Car
ista Wienerberger
Lecta Xella
Leonardo-Finmeccanica Ziggo
Lufthansa Zobele
Mahle
Agrokor (Hold)
Tuesday, 30 August Agrokor (B2s/Bs/--) has released somewhat weak 1H16 results, with revenues declining by
Reports weak 1H16 results with 3.5% yoy to HRK 21.7bn on a consolidated basis. For the first half of 2016, we calculate an
adjusted leverage increasing EBITDA of HRK 942mn, down by 52.5% yoy (1Q15: HRK 811mn). For 1H16 we calculate
FCF of HRK 489mn (1H15: -1,354mn), mainly related to strong working capital generation.
Compared to FYE 2015, the company’s net debt dropped slightly to HRK 23.1bn (stable vs.
1Q16). All in all, on a UniCredit-adjusted basis (incl. PiK), we calculate a net debt/EBITDA of
6.5x compared to 6.2x at FYE 2015. In the conference call on its 1Q16 results, management
provided further clarification on its plans for potential refinancing. Regarding the capital
structure, we understand from management statements that around EUR 700-800mn of debt
will mature over the next 12-24 months and that it is in discussions with its banks about
refinancing. However, we understand that the company is also open to approaching the
capital market. Just in order to provide some indication on potential pricing, Agrokor signed a
six-year EUR 350mn term loan facility in April for a coupon of around 6%. We keep our hold
recommendation on Agrokor bonds and note that, from a credit perspective, we will be
focused on a potential headlines and statements regarding potential refinancing as the bonds
trade at their next call levels. We do not expect significant deviations in bond prices in the
short term, which underpins our hold recommendation. Therefore, from an operational
perspective, our main concern in the short term is the challenging environment in Slovenia as
well as commodity-price-related changes in the EBITDA margin at its food manufacturing and
distribution business.
Now that the rumors on the sale of SFR Belgium have become more concrete, we would
expect TNETBB bonds, in particular, to have a weaker performance until details on the
valuation and financing are clarified. The transaction would probably have a negative impact
on Telenet’s leverage at first, but would be positive in the longer term due to the stronger
business profile and the synergies that would be generated. We confirm our hold
recommendation on TNETBB bonds, which we expect will struggle to outperform in the short
term. The primary beneficiary within the Altice group would be ALTICE bonds, as SFR
Belgium is part of Altice International. We also would not rule out that Altice might decide to
sell other, smaller subsidiaries within Altice International in the medium term as part of a
portfolio optimization process. However, we see upside for ATCNA bonds (Altice Luxembourg
SA), which would also benefit from deleveraging within Altice International. In addition, it is
possible that deleveraging at the Altice International level could eventually result in cash
upstreaming to the ATCNA level to deleverage more directly there if leverage at the ALTICE
level declined substantially below 4.0x. We therefore reiterate our buy recommendations on
ALTICE and ATCNA bonds.
Areva (Hold)
Wednesday, 31 August Yesterday, Areva reported that it had formally initiated the process for transferring all assets
Initiates transfer process, and liabilities related to its nuclear fuel cycle activities (including Mining, Front End and Back
provides update on capital End activities) as well as all bondholder debt to its NewCo. Areva further confirmed the
increase and liability transfer
projected EUR 5bn capital increase (subject to approval by the European Commission), which
will be divided into EUR 2bn in Areva and EUR 3bn into NewCo. The liability transfer will
exclude the 2016 bond issue, which will be repaid by Areva at maturity. The remuneration of
the contribution will be determined on the basis of the actual value of the assets and liabilities
transferred, in the order of EUR 1.4bn, valuing NewCo post-transfer at around EUR 2bn. A
bondholder meeting will take place on 19 September for bonds issued by Areva and maturing
between 2017 and 2024, to approve the draft partial transfer agreement. Bonds will be
granted a temporary guarantee by Areva until completion of the NewCo capital increase, in
the form of an irrevocable joint and several guarantee. Last Friday, S&P affirmed Areva’s
ratings and kept its developing outlook. This is mainly driven by S&P’s belief that Areva is
thus far on track to achieving its plan of focusing on the nuclear fuel cycle, cutting costs and
disposing of some key assets. However, S&P thinks that material execution risks (e.g. a
successful sale of Areva NP or a firm offer from a minority investor in Areva New Co) remain.
According to S&P, the EUR 5bn capital increase (by 20 January 2017), which is subject to
approval from the European competition authorities later this year, will be critical to address
Areva's current unsustainable leverage (>10x at 1H16). In view of Areva's pending bond
repayment, sizable negative free cash flow in 2H16 and the maturity of its undrawn bridge
facility in January 2017, S&P regards Areva’s liquidity as largely dependent on a short-term
shareholder loan being approved (assumed by the end of November) if there is a delay to the
capital increase. S&P adds that it regards the approval of a shareholder loan as highly likely.
The developing outlook reflects that S&P may take a positive rating action if the capital
increase is executed in line with the agency’s expectations in early 2017. Additional upside
would stem from tangible progress on the company's plan to dispose of non-strategic assets
for a total of EUR 2.9bn by year-end 2017, achieve cost savings, and reduce negative FOCF
over the medium term. Conversely, S&P could downgrade Areva by one or several notches if
the company does not receive the shareholder loan or obtain approval for the capital increase
by the end of November. For FY16, Areva expects net cash flow from operations to be close
to EUR -1.5bn (previously: EUR -2bn to EUR -1.5bn). As of 30 June 2016, Areva’s available
gross cash totaled EUR 2.1bn, compared to EUR 1.9bn in current financial debt. Areva’s
2016 liquidity is ensured by an undrawn bridge loan of EUR 1.2bn, which would be due in
January 2017 if drawn. Beyond that, liquidity will be ensured by the EUR 5bn capital increase
(January 2017). In the event of a temporary delay, Areva would request a shareholder loan.
With regard to the evolution on its restructuring, we regard the latest set of news as
encouraging. We further note that Areva is already making good progress with regard to its
smaller disposals. Also, the latest announcement on how EUR 5bn capital increase will be
split between Areva and the New Co and the amount of debt that will be finally transferred to
the New Co finally provides some clarity for bond investors. Cash prices for Areva’s five bond
issues maturing between 2019 and 2024 are up between 6 to 7 points this morning. However,
we note that some major topics are still open. These are: 1. a final approval of the EUR 5bn
capital increase by the European Commission, and 2. the successful sale of Areva NP, which
we think is somewhat related to the results of the Flamanville inspection. Hence, today’s price
reaction might be somewhat excessive. That said, we keep our hold recommendation on the
name. We expect volatility on Areva’s bonds to continue and view the AREVAF 4.375% 11/19
bond as the most attractive on the curve, offered at a cash price of around 101 (4% YTM).
CABB (Hold)
Monday, 29 August On Friday, CABB reported 2Q16 results that were below our expectations in terms of sales
2Q16 below expectations but and EBITDA. Sales of EUR 104.7mn (-14.7% yoy) were behind our forecast of EUR 115mn
full-year EBITDA outlook and EBITDA of EUR 22mn compared to our forecast of EUR 26mn. The margin of 21% was
confirmed
therefore also behind our forecast of 22.6%. Both of the company’s main segments reported
sales declines, but Custom Manufacturing was down particularly sharply, with a decline of
17.3% to EUR 78.7mn. CABB cited lower demand for its products as the reason for the drop.
The company noted that its agrochemical customers, in particular, were impacted by the
difficult market environment, due to high commodity stock levels, low crop prices, poor
weather conditions and reduced farm incomes. The company expects these factors to remain
in place throughout 2016. Custom Manufacturing EBITDA was down by EUR 4.6mn, or 22%,
in line with the company’s expectations. The decline was attributable to lower volumes and a
negative product mix, which was partially offset by ongoing cost control. Revenues in the
Acetyls segment were down EUR 3.3mn, or 7.0%, to EUR 43.7mn. The company said that
demand was solid in Europe, but weaker in the Americas and India, due to soft agrochemical,
oil and shale-gas markets. CABB also stated that the new MCA plant in China is ramping up
more slowly than anticipated and is now expected to reach full capacity in 4Q16. EBITDA in
Acetyls was down EUR 1.2mn, or 14.5%, due to the lower demand and weaker prices
described above. The company said that EBITDA in the segment was short of expectations in
2Q16. Group FCF for 2Q16 was positive at EUR 7.0mn. Fully-adjusted net leverage
(including pensions) came to 6.3x, which was above our estimate, due to the weaker EBITDA
and an increase in pensions qoq. With the FY16 results, CABB left its FY16 outlook
unchanged overall and continues to expect a maximum high single-digit EBITDA decline this
year (and neutral W/C). Hence, the floor is expected to remain at EUR 90mn EBITDA this
year. In FY17, management expects capex to decline slightly from EUR 40mn this year to the
high thirties. We reiterate our hold recommendation on CABB, despite the somewhat softer
2Q16 results. We continue to prefer the unsecured CABBCO 6.875% 22 offered at a cash
price of 90 (YTW: 9.1%), given the company’s still solid liquidity, strong long-term growth
prospects, substantial equity cushion and the over 400bp pickup in Z-spread that the bond
offers to the secured CABBO 5.25% 21 (for around 2.0x additional net leverage through the
unsecured tranche at 2016E EBITDA).
HP Pelzer (Hold)
Tuesday, 30 August HP Pelzer (B1s/B+n/Bs) reported strong 2Q16 results on the sales (+12.5%) and EBITDA
Strong 2Q16 results at sales level (+16.6%). In 2Q16, sales increased by 12.5% to EUR 36.7mn. From a regional
and EBITDA level perspective, sales in Europe improved by 38% to EUR 178.2mn driven by an increase in
serial sales. Sales in NAFTA decreased by 17.7% to EUR 74.1mn and remained more or less
stable in Asia (+1.1%). In 2Q16, EBITDA increased by 16.6% to EUR 29.6mn. In 1H16, cash
flow from operating activities was EUR 18.9mn (1H15: EUR 11.5mn). At 30 June 2016, net
debt remained more or less stable at EUR 260.1mn (31 Dec. 2015: EUR 254.9mn). In the
FY15 conference call, management highlighted that it expects organic revenue growth of 2-
2.5%, in line with the market. The company’s internal capex plan is to spend a maximum of a
third of its EBITDA. We note that the bond covenants allow an increase in leverage to up to
3.5x. We expect adjusted EBITDA of EUR 115mn in FY16 and FCF of EUR 18mn (after the
EUR 3mn annual payment for its EUR 15mn cartel fine) and derive net leverage of 2.1x in
FY16. We believe that, given M&A transactions and consolidation headlines in the interiors
business (e.g. Antolin acquired Magna’s interior assets and Motherson is interested in IAC),
as well as the company’s low leverage, HP Pelzer’s desire for a growth transaction is
Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA (UniCredit Bank) Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-13246 +49 89 378-18202
sven.kreitmair@unicredit.de silke.stegemann@unicredit.de
We expect further details on the competitive environment for telecoms in Switzerland at the
company’s results conference call on Tuesday. However, based on the information released
so far, it appears that Salt is holding up well in a tough environment. The improvement in
EBITDA and strong cash flow generation demonstrated rising operating efficiency, despite
slightly weaker revenue generation yoy and qoq. Current deleveraging is quite rapid and will
likely result in positive rating action during the next 12 months (in the absence of M&A
activity), in our view. We therefore reiterate our buy recommendation on MATTER bonds.
Stephan Haber, CFA (UniCredit Bank) Jonathan Schroer, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-15192 +49 89 378-13212
stephan.haber@unicredit.de jonathan.schroer@unicredit.de
RCS & RDS continues to show rising operating momentum as the mobile products in
Romania gain from strong subscriber and ARPU growth. The company’s other key region,
Hungary, also shows sustained growth, although not as strong as that of Romania. The only
negative aspect of the company’s performance is capex, which continues to run above
budget. This prevents stronger FCF generation and, thus, more deleveraging momentum.
Without stronger cash generation, we expect deleveraging momentum to slow down from this
point, as the easier yoy increases in EBITDA disappear starting in 3Q16. Nevertheless, we
see no reason why the company’s revenue and EBITDA growth will not continue in the
coming quarters, although probably at a less rapid pace in a yoy comparison.
CBLCSY currently trades at a minimal yield on a YTW basis, with the bid price of 105.0 just
above the call price of 103.75. Given low turnover of the bond at this point, we expect the
price to remain stable until the call date on 1 November. We see the likelihood of the bond
being called as very high at this point. However, there are clearly much more attractive yields
available in the high-yield cable universe. If the bond is not called in November, then the YTM
looks much more attractive, with a mid-yield of 5.9%. We therefore reiterate our hold
recommendation for now, notably for investors seeking short-term exposure to CEE credits.
Sappi (Buy)
Thursday, 01 September Following release of the security package for the SAPSJ secured bonds due to Sappi having
Moody's and S&P change issue maintained a reported net leverage level of below 2.5x since 2Q15/16 (two consecutive
ratings following release of quarters), Moody’s and S&P have made changes to the issue and recovery ratings while
security package
Sappi’s corporate ratings remain at Ba3/positive and BB-/positive, respectively. Moody’s
lowered the issue ratings of the (formerly) secured tranches by one notch to Ba3 (but left the
rating of the unsecured USD 32s bond at B2) while S&P aligned the rating of the always
unsecured SAPSJ USD 32s with that of the now unsecured bonds at BB- (rating unchanged).
We note that the SAPSJ 32s, unlike the former secured SAPSJ bonds, are not guaranteed by
Sappi’s main operating subsidiaries (outside South Africa) but are also issued by Sappi
Papier Holding GmbH. We expect no impact on the (former secured) outstanding SAPSJ
bonds from the rating changes but a positive impact on the SAPSJ 32s bond, still trading at a
YTW of 8.5%. We keep a buy recommendation on Sappi as we expect the deleveraging to
result in an upgrade of the corporate rating at Moody’s and S&P and as SAPSJ 22s and 23s
continue to trade with a pick-up to other similarly-rated (and unsecured) paper/packaging
peers (e.g. STERV 23s).
ADRBID is callable in November 2016 at 103.938. The bond is trading slightly above this level
and we believe there is a significant chance that it will be refinanced at the coming call date.
However, if it is not, the mid-YTM of 6.4% is attractive. Nevertheless, considering the minimal
yields on a YTC basis, we believe there are a number of more attractive bonds within the
high-yield cable peer group. We expect the ADRBID bond price to trade near the call price in
the coming months and we therefore reinstate our hold recommendation – particularly for
investors seeking short-term CEE exposure – after previously being restricted on the name.
Wind (Buy)
Friday, 02 September Yesterday, the EC approved the JV between Wind and Hutchison’s 3 Italia. EC Competition
EC approves Hutchison/Wind Commissioner Margrethe Vestager stated that without the companies’ agreement to sell
JV assets to Iliad, allowing it to become the fourth mobile player in the Italian market, “We could
not have allowed this transaction to go ahead”. The EC added that Iliad “has the know-how
and expertise to operate, invest and innovate in the Italian market”. The companies welcomed
the announcement in a joint press release, saying that customers will benefit from improved
coverage, faster 4G/LTE rollout, greater reliability and faster download speeds. They also
expect the transaction to result in EUR 7bn being invested in Italy’s mobile infrastructure. The
companies also said that the joint venture would benefit “from a healthier debt profile” and
that they would “be in a position to deliver solid deleveraging in the medium term”. Previously,
Wind has said that, although it expects Iliad to have an impact on the market – and potentially
on the synergies that the JV can generate – it doubts that it can replicate the disruptive effect
it has had on the French market. Iliad’s impact will be partially offset by proceeds from the
asset sales and the benefits from the JV arrangement. We agree with this assessment since
Iliad’s lack of 700MHz spectrum in Italy means that it is most likely to focus on the low-price,
low-margin segment at first, at prices similar to those of 3 Italia. In addition, mobile prices in
Italy are already low in a European context. Wind confirmed its EUR 5bn synergy target in its
most recent conference call, indicating that the target has not been affected by the decision to
divest assets to Iliad for now. We reiterate our buy recommendation on WINDIM, particularly
for the unsecured bonds. The secured WINDIM 4.0% 04/21 is trading near its call price of
102, while the unsecured WINDIM 7% 04/21 is trading at a mid-YTW of 4.1%.
Stephan Haber, CFA (UniCredit Bank) Jonathan Schroer, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-15192 +49 89 378-13212
stephan.haber@unicredit.de jonathan.schroer@unicredit.de
Xella (Hold)
Tuesday, 30 August Xella released solid 2Q16 results with reported sales growth accelerating to 5% (EUR 362mn)
Solid 2Q16 results, but focus to and adj. EBITDA up 18% yoy to EUR 91mn. Volume growth in Building Materials and Dry
remain on sponsor exit Lining was carried by a strong recovery in the Netherlands and better performance in Eastern
European countries as well as Germany, Switzerland and the UK, offsetting still challenging
markets in Russia and China as well as lower sales in Lime. The improved top line, as well as
continued benefits from the X-celerate cost savings program, moved the adj. EBITDA margin
to 25.1% in 2Q16 (+270bp yoy; 1H16: 21.9%), with all three segments contributing. In
combination with improved W/C management (i.e. reduced seasonal build-up), operating
cash flow in 1H16 improved to EUR 30mn (before interest) and was used for yoy slightly
higher capex (EUR 30mn vs. EUR 27mnin 1H15). Reported net debt at end-June 2016 was
only marginally up vs. FYE 2015 at EUR 705mn (but clearly down from EUR 767mn in 2Q15)
which translates into a reduction in reported net debt/adj. EBITDA to 2.7x (FY15: 3.0x).
Despite the solid 2Q16 results and our expectation of continued EBITDA improvements in the
seasonally more cash generative 2H16 on the back of supportive (residential) construction
markets and Xella’s self-help measures (further cost savings from X-celerate envisaged), we
expect the focus to remain on a potential exit of Xella’s sponsors. Following the
cancelled/postponed IPO in 2H15, rumors have re-emerged in recent months that GS Capital
Partners and PAI Partners might now also explore an outright sale of the company as part of
a dual-track strategy. We think a sale will mainly attract financial investors as we see limited
probability of a strategic European buyer/consolidation, given the size of the business which
is 1. likely to prevent the few European peers from submitting offers due to regulatory issues
(e.g. Wienerberger, Saint-Gobain, Braas Monier, HeidelbergCement), and 2. is simply too
large for many of Xella’s smaller regional competitors.
We note that the Xella FRN E+375bp 06/19 benefits from a CoC at 101 and we assume the
bond would be refinanced in any sale or IPO scenario (the bond is already callable at 100 and
continues to trade at around par). Hence, we see only very limited impact from an exit of GS
and PAI or the 2Q16 results and confirm our hold recommendation on Xella.
Zobele (Hold)
Tuesday, 30 August Zobele (B2s/B+/--) reported strong 2Q16 operating results and margins. In 2Q16, sales
Strong 2Q16 operating results decreased by 3.8% to EUR 80.3mn. From a business perspective, Air Care (54.7% of sales)
decreased by 2.9% yoy to EUR 43.9mn, Insecticide (35.6% of sales) by 6.5% yoy to EUR
28.6mn and Home, Health and Personal Care improved by 1.3% to EUR 7.8mn (9.7% of
sales). In Air Care Products, the decrease was mainly attributable to reduced demand for
traditional air care products in North America and Asia Pacific from its Global FMCG
customers. This effect has been partially offset by the introduction of new aerosol dispensers
and static products and by the strong order levels for other air care products in Europe. The
decline in insecticide product sales was mainly due to a different quarterly phasing of demand
in Europe compared to last year and by unfavorable weather conditions in southern Europe.
Net sales in Home, Health and Personal Care improved due to new products. From a
geographic perspective, net sales improved in Europe (+7.2%), South America (+7.9%) and
Africa-Middle East (+47.4%) but decreased in North America (-19.8%). In 2Q16, EBITDA
(before non-recurring transaction) improved by 8.9% to EUR 13.4mn and the margin jumped
by 200bp to 16.7%. Total operating free cash flow improved in 1H16 by EUR 0.3mn to EUR
3.1mn. Net financial debt at 30 June, remained more or less stable at EUR 177.24mn (31
Dec. 2015: EUR 176.5mn). As of 1H16, we calculate a ratio of adjusted net debt/EBITDA of
3.5x (UniCredit FY15: 3.6x, 1H15: 3.8x) and adj. FFO/net debt of 16.3% (FY15: 14.9%, 1H15:
12.8%). For FY16, we estimate that adjusted net leverage will decrease further yoy (UniCredit
estimate FY16: 2.8x) supported by a gradual improvement in EBITDA due to new product
launches and growth in existing and new markets. We confirm our hold recommendation on
ZOBELE bonds. There will be a conference call today at 16:00 CET, at which we hope for
more insight on 2016 assumptions. For the time being, we take comfort in the company's solid
position in growing niche markets (air care and pest-control devices have low penetration
rates in less developed markets), its strong and long-standing customer relationships with
global FMCG companies, and strong growth prospects in emerging markets. Additional
margin support is expected from a better customer mix and restructured production capacity.
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Spread: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread Source: Agencies, iBoxx, Markit, UniCredit Research
TR: 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%); ER: 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI/FIN (%)
Out: Outstanding volume in EUR mn; Sec: CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
Disclaimer
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7.
Key 1a: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person owns at least 2% of the capital stock of the analyzed company.
Key 1b: The analyzed company owns at least 2% of the capital stock of UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person.
Key 2: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person has been lead manager or co-lead manager over the previous 12 months of any publicly disclosed offer of financial
instruments of the analyzed company, or in any related derivatives.
Key 3: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person administers the securities issued by the analyzed company on the stock exchange or on the market by quoting bid and ask
prices (i.e. acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the analyzed company or in any related derivatives).
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UniCredit Group) and/or members of the Group Board (pursuant to relevant domestic law) are members of the Board of Directors of the analyzed company. Members of the Board of
Directors of the analyzed company hold office in the Board of Directors of UniCredit Bank AG (pursuant to relevant domestic law). The application of this Key 6a is limited to persons
who, although not involved in the preparation of the analysis, had or could reasonably be expected to have access to the analysis prior to its dissemination to customers or the public.
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Key 8a: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person hold a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the issuer.
Key 8b: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person hold a net short position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the issuer.
INVESTMENT SERVICES
The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person concluded an agreement on the provision of investment services in the previous 12 months, in return
for which the Bank and/or such related legal person received a consideration or promise of consideration or intends to do so. Due to the fact that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related
legal person are entitled to conclude, subject to applicable law, an agreement on the provision of investment services with the analyzed company at any future point in time and may
receive a consideration or promise of consideration, it should be assumed for the purposes of this information that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person will in fact
conclude such agreements and will in fact receive such consideration or promise of consideration.
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CR e 10
UniCredit Research*
Erik F. Nielsen
Group Chief Economist Dr. Ingo Heimig
Global Head of CIB Research Head of Research Operations
+44 207 826-1765 +49 89 378-13952
erik.nielsen@unicredit.eu ingo.heimig@unicredit.de
Credit Research
Credit Strategy & Structured Financials Credit Research Corporate Credit Research
Credit Research
Franz Rudolf, CEFA, Head Stephan Haber, CFA, Co-Head
Dr. Philip Gisdakis, Head Covered Bonds Telecoms, Technology
Credit Strategy +49 89 378-12449 +49 89 378-15192
+49 89 378-13228 franz.rudolf@unicredit.de stephan.haber@unicredit.de
philip.gisdakis@unicredit.de Dr. Tilo Höpker Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA, Co-Head
Dr. Christian Weber, CFA, Deputy Head Banks Automotive & Mobility
Credit Strategy +49 89 378-12960 +49 89 378-13246
+49 89 378-12250 tilo.hoepker@unicredit.de sven.kreitmair@unicredit.de
christian.weber@unicredit.de Luis Maglanoc, CFA Christian Aust, CFA
Dr. Tim Brunne Regulatory & Accounting Service Industrials
Quantitative Credit Strategy +49 89 378-12708 +49 89 378-12806
+49 89 378-13521 luis.maglanoc@unicredit.de christian.aust@unicredit.de
tim.brunne@unicredit.de Natalie Tehrani Monfared Mehmet Dere
Holger Kapitza Regulatory & Accounting Service Oil & Gas, EEMEA Energy, Consumer
Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-12242 +49 89 378-11294
+49 89 378-28745 natalie.tehrani@unicredit.de mehmet.dere@unicredit.de
holger.kapitza@unicredit.de Dr. Michael Teig Michael Gerstner
Dr. Stefan Kolek Banks Utilities, Hybrids
EEMEA Corporate Credits & Strategy +49 89 378-12429 +49 89 378-15449
+49 89 378-12495 michael.teig@unicredit.de michael.gerstner@unicredit.de
stefan.kolek@unicredit.de Emanuel Teuber Jonathan Schroer, CFA
Manuel Trojovsky Covered Bonds Media/Cable, Logistics, Business Services
Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-12961 +49 89 378-13212
+49 89 378-14145 emanuel.teuber@unicredit.de jonathan.schroer@unicredit.de
manuel.trojovsky@unicredit.de Robert Vielhaber Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA
Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Green Bonds Health Care & Pharma, Food & Beverage,
+49 89 378-12004 Personal & Household Goods
robert.vielhaber@unicredit.de +49 89 378-18202
silke.stegemann@unicredit.de
Dr. Martina von Terzi
Banks, Financial Services, Insurance
+49 89 378-14245
martina.vonterzi@unicredit.de
Publication Address
*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch (UniCredit Bank Milan),
UniCredit Bank New York (UniCredit Bank NY), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka d.d., UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, Bank Pekao, ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia),
UniCredit Bank Romania.
CR 24