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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 26TH JULY 2018, 6 AM EST

Canada - National UltraPoll


26th July 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
a survey conducted between July 15th to 17th, three levels of government, President and CEO
2018 among a sample of 9384 adults, 18 years Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on both landlines and cellular Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
phones. The survey is intended to represent snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
the voting population of Canada. a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Research and was not sponsored by a third federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
party. predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
The sampling frame was derived from both special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a national telephone directory compiled by a member of the World Association for Public
Mainstreet Research from various sources and Opinion Research and meets international and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey that Canadian publication standards.
dialed from the directory was conducted as a
stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. CONTACT INFORMATION
In the case of random digit dials, respondents In Ottawa:
were asked the additional question of what Quito Maggi, President
region of the country they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.01% In Toronto:


and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TRUDEAU LIBERALS HOLD SIGNIFICANT LEADS IN SEAT-RICH REGIONS DESPITE BEING CLOSE
TO CONSERVATIVES

26 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals maintain nearly a three point lead over the
opposition Conservatives.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 9384 Canadians between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error of
+/- 1.01% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Justin Trudeau is very close to 40% support about a year away from the election, which puts him
within range of winning another majority in the next election”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of
Mainstreet Research. “While the Conservatives are somewhat close behind with almost 37% support,
the Liberals hold significant leads in seat rich provinces like Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 39.4% support, while the
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 36.9%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 11.8% support,
while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 7%. The Bloc Quebecois have 2.4% overall, but
10.1% in Quebec.

“The Conservatives have dominating leads in Alberta and the Prairies which makes them seem more
competitive than they actually are”, continued Maggi. “Excluding those regions, it is clear that the
Liberals are in pole positions in the areas where it matters most, as they are being powered into the
lead by women and voters under the age of 34 – which will be the biggest voting bloc in the next
election.”

The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances
and the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 55.1% of respondents were optimistic
about the Canadian economy, with 20.1% being very optimistic.

There were similar findings regarding Canadians’ sentiment about personal finances. 67.6% were
optimistic about their personal finances for the rest of the year, with nearly 30% being very optimistic.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal
Allelection
Voters were held today, which party would you
vote for?

11.3%

1.9%

6.1%
35.2%

2.1%

All Voters
All Voters
10.2%

12%

1.8%
Decided and Leaning Voters
5% 33.1%

35.9%
2.2% 2.5%
Liberals 7.0%
Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois
2.4%
Greens Another Party Undecided

9.9% 11.8%
All Voters
39.4%

Decided and Leaning Voters

33.3%
36.9%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party


Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Bloc Quebecois Greens


Greens Another
Another Party Party Undecided
If the federal election were held today, which party would
you vote for?
(regional breakouts)

39.4%
36.9%
11.8%

All
2.4%
7.0%
2.5%

36.5%
32.7%
British Columbia

14.6%
-
13.9%
2.3%

24.5%
64.1%
5.8%
Alberta

-
3.3%
2.2%

29.6%
49.6%
12.2%
Prairies

-
6.0%
2.6%

40.5%
36.7%
14.0%
Ontario

-
6.3%
2.5%

45.8%
25.1%
10.5%
Quebec

10.1%
5.9%
2.6%

51.4%
30.8%
Atlantic Canada

7.8%
-
7.7%
2.4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens

Another Party
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the
rest of the year?
demographic breakouts

Total 20.1% 35% 26.1% 11.6% 7.2%

Male 22.4% 33.8% 24.5% 13.2%


Age and Gender

Female 18% 36% 27.8% 10.1% 8.1%

18-34 20.8% 33.2% 23.9% 14.1% 8.1%

35-49 19.8% 32.9% 27.3% 12.8% 7.2%

50-64 19.9% 36% 27.6% 10.5% 6%

65+ 20.1% 38.6% 25.8% 8.1% 7.4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

Total 20.1% 35% 26.1% 11.6% 7.2%

BC 21.9% 34.1% 27.3% 10.6%

AB 19.8% 32.9% 26.3% 15.7%


Regions

Prairies 20% 33.9% 25.2% 13.2% 7.7%

ON 19.3% 33.1% 27.4% 12.2% 7.9%

QC 20.3% 40.5% 24.1% 8.4%

Atlantic 21.2% 32.2% 23.9% 12.9% 9.7%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure


Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances
for the rest of the year?
demographic breakouts

Total 29.2% 38.4% 17.1% 9.1%

Male 32.8% 37.6% 15.6% 8.7%


Age and Gender

Female 25.7% 39.1% 18.6% 9.5% 7.1%

18-34 31.1% 37.4% 15.3% 10.2% 6%

35-49 27.9% 37.6% 19.1% 9.7%

50-64 27.8% 39.7% 18% 9.1%

65+ 30.3% 38.9% 15.8% 8.1%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure

All 29.2% 38.4% 17.1% 9.1%

BC 30.1% 41.5% 16.8% 7.1%

AB 26.2% 37.4% 19.3% 10.7%


Regions

Prairies 30.8% 36% 17.5% 8.7%

ON 29.1% 37% 16.9% 10.2%

QC 30.1% 40.1% 16.9% 7.5%

Atlantic 28.6% 38.0% 15.4% 10.4% 7.7%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimitic

Very Pessimistic Not Sure


Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 35.2% 32.5% 37.8% 34.5% 34.7% 34.5% 37.6% 32.7% 21.6% 25.4% 37% 40.4% 43.9%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 33.1% 38.8% 27.6% 27.2% 35.3% 35% 36.2% 30.1% 57.8% 44.1% 33.3% 22.1% 25.2%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.2% 9.6% 10.9% 15.4% 10.1% 8% 6.2% 12.6% 5% 10.6% 12.5% 8.7% 6.2%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 2.1% 2.3% 2% 1.2% 2.3% 2.8% 2.4% - - - - 9.1% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.1% 5.6% 6.5% 8.6% 5.5% 5.7% 3.8% 12% 2.9% 5% 5.7% 5% 6.3%
Another Party 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9%
Undecided 11.3% 8.9% 13.7% 11% 10.5% 11.9% 11.9% 10.6% 10.9% 13.2% 9.4% 13% 16.6%
Unweighted Frequency 9384 4970 4414 1335 1907 2724 3418 933 936 1672 1861 992 2990
Weighted Frequency 9384 4589 4694 2586 2323 2556 1818 1266 1041 603 3559 2176 638

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 37.4% 34.3% 40.4% 37.4% 36.8% 36.6% 39.3% 34.9% 23.4% 27.4% 38.6% 43.5% 46.9%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 35.1% 40.5% 29.8% 28.5% 37.5% 36.8% 39% 31.3% 61.3% 46% 35.1% 23.8% 28.1%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 11.2% 10% 12.4% 16.3% 11.1% 9.1% 7.1% 14% 5.5% 11.3% 13.3% 10% 7.1%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.2% 2.4% 3% 2.6% - - - - 9.6% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.6% 6.1% 7.1% 9.6% 5.7% 6% 4.4% 13.3% 3.2% 5.5% 6% 5.6% 7%
Another Party 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.2%
Undecided 5.1% 4.2% 5.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.9% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4% 7.3% 4.6% 4.9% 8.6%
Unweighted Frequency 9384 4970 4414 1335 1907 2724 3418 933 936 1672 1861 992 2990
Weighted Frequency 9384 4589 4694 2586 2323 2556 1818 1266 1041 603 3559 2176 638

(decided and leaning voters)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 39.4% 35.8% 42.9% 39.2% 38.5% 38.9% 41.7% 36.5% 24.5% 29.6% 40.5% 45.8% 51.4%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 36.9% 42.3% 31.7% 29.8% 39.3% 39% 41.2% 32.7% 64.1% 49.6% 36.7% 25.1% 30.8%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 11.8% 10.4% 13.2% 17.1% 11.6% 9.6% 7.5% 14.6% 5.8% 12.2% 14% 10.5% 7.8%
Bloc led by Mario Beaulieu 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 2.5% 3.1% 2.7% - - - - 10.1% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 7% 6.4% 7.6% 10.1% 6% 6.4% 4.6% 13.9% 3.3% 6% 6.3% 5.9% 7.7%
Another Party 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4%
Unweighted Frequency 8804 4740 4064 1266 1803 2548 3187 892 891 1556 1780 945 2740
Weighted Frequency 8804 4303 4401 2426 2178 2396 1705 1187 976 565 3337 2040 598
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy
for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 20.1% 22.4% 18% 20.8% 19.8% 19.9% 20.1% 21.9% 19.8% 20% 19.3% 20.3% 21.2%
Somewhat Optimistic 35% 33.8% 36% 33.2% 32.9% 36% 38.6% 34.1% 32.9% 33.9% 33.1% 40.5% 32.2%
Somewhat Pessimistic 26.1% 24.5% 27.8% 23.9% 27.3% 27.6% 25.8% 27.3% 26.3% 25.2% 27.4% 24.1% 23.9%
Very Pessimistic 11.6% 13.2% 10.1% 14.1% 12.8% 10.5% 8.1% 10.6% 15.7% 13.2% 12.2% 8.4% 12.9%
Not Sure 7.2% 6.2% 8.1% 8.1% 7.2% 6% 7.4% 6.2% 5.2% 7.7% 7.9% 6.6% 9.7%
Unweighted Frequency 8804 4740 4064 1266 1803 2548 3187 892 891 1556 1780 945 2740
Weighted Frequency 8804 4303 4401 2426 2178 2396 1705 1187 976 565 3337 2040 598

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances


for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 29.2% 32.8% 25.7% 31.1% 27.9% 27.8% 30.3% 30.1% 26.2% 30.8% 29.1% 30.1% 28.6%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.4% 37.6% 39.1% 37.4% 37.6% 39.7% 38.9% 41.5% 37.4% 36% 37% 40.1% 38%
Somewhat Pessimistic 17.1% 15.6% 18.6% 15.3% 19.1% 18% 15.8% 16.8% 19.3% 17.5% 16.9% 16.9% 15.4%
Very Pessimistic 9.1% 8.7% 9.5% 10.2% 9.7% 9.1% 6.8% 7.1% 10.7% 8.7% 10.2% 7.5% 10.4%
Not Sure 6.2% 5.3% 7.1% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 8.1% 4.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 5.4% 7.7%
Unweighted Frequency 8804 4740 4064 1266 1803 2548 3187 892 891 1556 1780 945 2740
Weighted Frequency 8804 4303 4401 2426 2178 2396 1705 1187 976 565 3337 2040 598
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, Are you optimistic or pessimistic
which party would you vote for? about your personal finances in the
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin coming year?
Trudeau Very Optimistic
Conservative Party of Canada led by Somewhat Optimistic
Andrew Scheer Somewhat Pessimistic
New Democratic Party of Canada led Very Pessimistic
by Jagmeet Singh Not Sure
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May What is your gender?
Another Party Male
Undecided Female

And which party are you leaning What is your age group?
towards? (only asked of respondents 18 to 34 years of age
who were undecided in Q1) 35 to 49 years of age
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin 50 to 64 years of age
Trudeau 65 years of age or older
Conservative Party of Canada led by
Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led
by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May
Another Party
Undecided

[Provincial related questions were


asked here - refer to the individual
provincial reports for thsoe questions]

Are you optimistic or pessimistic


about the economy in the coming
year?
Very Optimistic
Somewhat Optimistic
Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic
Not Sure
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th,
2018 and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 9401 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region
of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.01% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.42%, Females: +/- 1.54%,
18-34 age group: +/- 2.75%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.31%, 50-64 age group: +/- 1.94%, 65+ age
group: +/- 1.74%, British Columbia: +/- 3.28%, Alberta: +/- 3.28%, Prairies: +/- 2.48%, Ontario:
+/- 2.32%, Quebec: +/- 3.19%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.87%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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