Illinois Public Opinion, Inc.

www. illinoispublicopinion.com Chicago, Illinois

312-342-9638

Memorandum

To: File
From: David Ormsby
Date: 17 July 2018
Re: Illinois 2018: General Election: Part I

Summary
With the November 6 election less than four months away, both the Democratic and Republican
gubernatorial candidates are struggling with low job approval and favorability. Still, Democrat
J.B. Pritzker is leading incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner by 13-points in the four-way contest,
according to a July 12 Illinois Public Opinion, Inc. automated survey.

Rauner has a near-crippling job approval rating that is 36-points under water, with just 26.8% of
likely voters approving of Rauner’s job performance and a whopping 62.4% disapproving.
Meanwhile, Pritzker has favorability rating that is 15-points under water, with only 28.8% holding
a favorable view of the nominee and 44.2%, unfavorable. Meanwhile, the generic ballot question
for control of the Illinois House favors Democrats by nearly 13-points, 49.8% to 37.1%.

Interestingly, while 63.7% see Illinois heading in the “wrong direction,” 60.9% say the “quality of
life” in their own community is, however, either “excellent” or “good.” That finding may suggest
that Rauner’s “doom and gloom” narrative has failed to take root at the local level. Moreover,
the “wrong direction” number is, in fact, a 15-point improvement from a May 2016 IPO, Inc. poll,
a development which could be attributed, in part, to the disappearance of a relentless media
message of “Illinois in crisis” thanks to the approval of state budgets in 2017 and 2018.

If Pritzker prevails, the state’s traditional Democratic leanings – bolstered by an anticipated “Blue
Wave” – Rauner’s atrocious job approval numbers, and Pritzker’s vast spending will be seen as
the key drivers of a Democratic victory at the top of the ticket.

Note: “Likely voters” in this survey are measured by voters (Ds, Rs, and Is) who have voted in the
last two general elections. A surge to voting booths on November 6 by sporadic voters and newly
registered voters, who are not included in the IPO survey, could likely scramble the profile of the
electorate – and the results.

1
 Automated Survey
12 July 2018
Illinois 2018 General Election
423 Likely Voters
+/- 5.0% MOE
90% Landlines; 10% Cell

1. Do you approve or disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling his job?
7/12/18 7/26/16 [IPO, Inc.]
• Approve 37.8% Favorable 31.2%
• Disapprove 54.8% Unfavorable 60.0%
• Undecided 07.3% Undecided 08.8%

2. Do you approve or disapprove of how Governor Bruce Rauner is handling his job?
7/12/18 7/26/16 [IPO, Inc.]
• Approve 26.8% 34.0%
• Disapprove 62.4% 51.7%
• Undecided 10.7% 14.3%

3. Have you a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic gubernatorial candidate J.B.

Pritzker?
• Favorable 28.8%
• Unfavorable 44.2%
• Undecided 26.9%

4. If the 2018 general election for Governor was held today, for whom would you vote:
• Republican party candidate Bruce Rauner 26.1%
• Democratic party candidate J.B. Pritzker 39.4%
• Conservative party candidate Sam McCann 10.0%
• Libertarian party candidate Kash Jackson 01.1%
• Undecided 23.3%

Reference Note: An IPO, Inc. poll of 824 likely 2016 voters on July 26, 2016 had a more popular US
Senator Dick Durbin leading Rauner by only 9-points with a nearly identical undecided #.
Significantly, McCann’s Conservative party candidacy seems to be drawing largely from the
governor’s earlier support.

Do you approve or disapprove of how U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is handling his job in Washington,
D.C.?

Approve 48.4%
Disapprove 37.9%
Undecided 13.7%

2
If the 2018 election for Illinois Governor was held today, for whom would you vote?

Democrat Dick Durbin 43.7%

Republican Bruce Rauner 34.6%
Undecided 21.7%

5. If the 2018 election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the
Democratic Party win control of the Illinois House of Representatives?
• Republican Party 37.1%
• Democratic Party 49.8%
• Undecided 12.9%

6. How would you rate the quality of life in your community?

• Excellent 16.5%
• Good 44.4%
• Fair 27.0%
• Poor 08.8%
• Undecided 03.1%

7. Is Illinois heading in the right direction or wrong direction?

7/12/18 5/19/16 [IPO, Inc.]
• Right Direction 11.9% 09.0%
• Wrong Direction 63.7% 78.5%
• Undecided 24.2% 12.5%