TO Interested Parties

FROM David Metz & Rick Sklarz

FM3 Research

RE: Arizona 2nd Congressional District Democratic Primary Survey Results

DATE August 3, 2018

A recently completed survey among voters in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District likely to vote in the
August 28th Democratic primary election shows Dr. Matt Heinz well-positioned. A majority (54%) regards
him favorably while fewer than two in ten (15%) view him unfavorably. (See Figure 1) In comparison,
former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick has a lower favorability rating (48%) and a larger share of the
primary electorate (26%) hold an unfavorable impression of her.

Figure 1: Candidate Favorability Ratings

Can’t Rate/
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable
Don’t Know
Matt Heinz 54% 15% 31%
Ann Kirkpatrick 48% 26% 26%

The survey also shows Heinz as the top vote getter in the Democratic primary with a 5-point lead over
Kirkpatrick. As Figure 2 shows, Heinz receives 31% of the vote, Kirkpatrick trails him with 26%, all other
candidates are far behind in the single digits, and three in ten (29%) voters are undecided.

Figure 2: Arizona 2nd Congressional District Democratic Primary Vote

Candidate Percentage
Matt Heinz 31%
Ann Kirkpatrick 26%
Other Candidates 13%
Undecided 29%

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These survey results show that the Heinz campaign has been effective in communicating with Democratic
primary voters, staking Heinz to an early advantage over Ann Kirkpatrick. Moreover, these findings
suggest that as undecided voters turn their attention to the primary election for Congress, the Heinz
campaign’s voter outreach program will help solidify the candidate’s position as the strongest Democrat
in the field.

Survey Methodology: From August 1-2, 2018, FM3 conducted a survey of 402 randomly-selected Arizona
2nd Congressional District voters likely to cast a ballot in the August Democratic primary election.
Interviews were conducted via landline and cell/mobile telephone by live interviewers. The full sample
margin of error is +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level. Due to rounding, some percentages may not sum
to 100%.

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