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Valuation summary
Valuation Method Equity Value (INR Mn)
FCFE 87,306
FCFF - Constant WACC - AERA 131,239
FCFF - WACC (calculated YoY) 78,031
Key pointers
a) These are high level estimates with simpler year on year assumptions on traffic
b) While the AERA tariff calculations are highly detailed, a simplified model is used to estimate the Aeronautical / Non Aerona
c) Operating leverage benefits have not been taken and a constant EBITDA is assumed
d) The concession agreement has not been extended beyond the current 30 year period.
e) Capex for Delhi are estimated with benchmarks for Hyderabad airport
f) Cash flow generated are used to fund future capex / working capital requirements and limited debt is assumed
mate the Aeronautical / Non Aeronautical revenues
0 1 2
FCFE Heads Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Valuation
PV Terminal Value 16,510
Current value of equity 70,796
Overall equity value 87,306
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29 Mar-30
13,812 15,735 17,465 18,953 20,167 21,521 22,656 23,592 24,444 25,391
7,796 7,890 7,983 8,076 8,169 7,700 7,268 6,870 6,504 6,167
96 86 81 75 60 49 47 44 40 47
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-9,034 -9,124 -9,215 -9,308 -1,958 -1,977 -1,997 -2,017 -2,037 -9,500
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-10,045 -10,045 -6,326 -5,768 -4,738 -3,781 0 0 0 0
2,625 4,541 9,987 12,027 21,699 23,511 27,973 28,488 28,950 22,104
1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.9
1,682 2,508 4,755 4,936 7,678 7,172 7,356 6,458 5,657 3,724
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Mar-31 Mar-32 Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
238,770
0 1 2
FCFF Heads Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Valuation -1
PV Terminal Value 40,740
Current value of equity 160,336
Overall firm value 201,075
Less Debt / other lia value 69,836
Total equity value 131,239
16,246 17,495 18,675 19,756 20,617 21,685 22,693 23,629 24,481 25,428
7,796 7,890 7,983 8,076 8,169 7,700 7,268 6,870 6,504 6,167
96 86 81 75 60 49 47 44 40 47
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-9,034 -9,124 -9,215 -9,308 -1,958 -1,977 -1,997 -2,017 -2,037 -9,500
15,105 16,346 17,523 18,599 26,888 27,457 28,011 28,526 28,987 22,142
4% 4%
1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.3
11,247 11,031 10,719 10,312 13,512 12,505 11,563 10,673 9,831 6,806
12.2% 13.0% 13.7% 14.2% 14.6% 14.9% 15.0% 15.1% 15.2% 15.3%
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.7
10,927 10,461 9,867 9,171 11,568 10,280 9,117 8,064 7,113 4,713
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Mar-31 Mar-32 Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
239,059
EXPENDITURE :
Raw Materials 0 0 0
Power & Fuel Cost 332 312 608
Employee Cost 1,988 969 1,352
Other Manufacturing Expenses 1,099 1,474 2,106
Selling and Administration Expenses 962 836 1,298
Miscellaneous Expenses 73 111 257
Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised 0 0 0
Total Expenditure 4,453 3,702 5,621
Operating Profit 722 2,628 1,223
Interest 539 1,293 3,317
Gross Profit 183 1,335 -2,094
Depreciation 525 1,166 2,684
Profit Before Tax -342 168 -4,778
Tax 0 0 0
Fringe Benefit tax 24 -3 0
Deferred Tax -131 -27 -276
Reported Net Profit -235 199 -4,502
Extraordinary Items 0 -36 0
Adjusted Net Profit -235 234 -4,502
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ROCE -2%
RoE
Fixed asset turn over
Total asset turn over
Revenue split
Aeronautical revenue
Non aeronautical revenue
Income from commercial property
Pax
Domestic
International
Share of revenue
Aeronautical revenue share
Non aeronautical revenue share
Share of Income from commercial property
Mar 12 (12) Mar 13 (12) Mar 14 (12) Mar 15 (12) Mar 16 (12) Mar 17 (12) Mar-18 Mar-19
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
857 981 0 0 0 0 0 0
1,426 1,237 1,227 1,321 1,255 1,295 1,399 1,545
0 0 19,750 21,029 28,455 32,061 34,631 38,254
7,050 15,332 5,605 6,240 2,307 2,504 2,705 2,988
5,637 4,387 146 125 1,511 535 578 638
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14,970 21,937 26,727 28,715 33,527 36,395 39,313 43,425
359 11,442 14,121 14,084 19,608 22,917 24,755 27,344
6,810 6,575 5,648 5,562 6,322 5,273 5,039 4,686
-6,451 4,867 8,473 8,522 13,285 17,645 19,716 22,659
4,265 4,142 4,364 6,243 7,036 6,380 5,877 6,555
-10,716 725 4,108 2,279 6,249 11,265 13,839 16,103
138 0 0 0 1,320 2,368 4,567 5,314
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 -113 3,037 0 0
-10,854 725 4,108 2,279 5,043 5,860 9,272 10,789
-1,621 0 -16 -19 -1 -8 0 0
-9,233 725 4,125 2,298 5,044 5,868 9,272 10,789
69% 69%
28% 28%
3% 3%
100% 100%
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29
74,503 80,009 84,897 89,526 93,789 97,229 100,039 102,717 105,211 107,473
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
74,503 80,009 84,897 89,526 93,789 97,229 100,039 102,717 105,211 107,473
2,722 2,923 3,102 3,271 3,427 3,552 3,655 3,753 3,844 3,927
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
77,225 82,932 87,998 92,797 97,215 100,782 103,694 106,469 109,055 111,399
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1,686 1,810 1,921 2,026 2,122 2,200 2,263 2,324 2,381 2,432
41,743 44,828 47,567 50,161 52,549 54,477 56,051 57,551 58,949 60,216
3,261 3,502 3,715 3,918 4,105 4,255 4,378 4,495 4,605 4,704
697 748 794 837 877 909 935 961 984 1,005
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
47,386 50,888 53,997 56,942 59,653 61,841 63,628 65,331 66,918 68,356
29,839 32,044 34,001 35,855 37,563 38,941 40,066 41,138 42,137 43,043
4,352 3,633 2,626 1,805 1,199 673 245 56 56 56
25,486 28,411 31,375 34,050 36,363 38,268 39,820 41,082 42,081 42,987
7,194 7,796 7,890 7,983 8,076 8,169 7,700 7,268 6,870 6,504
18,292 20,614 23,486 26,067 28,288 30,099 32,120 33,814 35,211 36,483
6,036 6,803 7,750 8,602 9,335 9,933 10,600 11,159 11,620 12,039
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12,256 13,812 15,735 17,465 18,953 20,167 21,521 22,656 23,592 24,444
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12,256 13,812 15,735 17,465 18,953 20,167 21,521 22,656 23,592 24,444
23% 24% 25% 27% 28% 30% 33% 37% 41% 45%
22% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 14% 12% 12% 11%
0.75 0.77 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.92 1.01 1.10 1.19 1.28
0.61 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.46 0.43
51,069 54,500 57,391 60,134 62,665 64,444 65,674 66,859 67,966 68,966
21,259 23,172 25,026 26,778 28,385 29,946 31,443 32,858 34,172 35,368
2,176 2,336 2,479 2,614 2,739 2,839 2,921 2,999 3,072 3,138
74,503 80,009 84,897 89,526 93,789 97,229 100,039 102,717 105,211 107,473
69% 68% 68% 67% 67% 66% 66% 65% 65% 64%
29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 31% 32% 32% 33%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Mar-30 Mar-31 Mar-32 Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2,492 2,567 2,643 2,720 2,783 2,837 2,894 2,962
61,722 63,568 65,447 67,360 68,916 70,248 71,666 73,360
4,821 4,965 5,112 5,262 5,383 5,487 5,598 5,730
1,030 1,061 1,092 1,124 1,150 1,172 1,196 1,224
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
70,066 72,161 74,294 76,467 78,232 79,745 81,354 83,277
44,120 45,439 46,782 48,150 49,262 50,214 51,228 52,439
56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
44,064 45,383 46,726 48,094 49,206 50,158 51,172 52,383
6,167 6,418 6,658 6,887 7,106 6,754 6,431 6,133
37,897 38,965 40,068 41,207 42,100 43,404 44,741 46,250
12,506 12,858 13,222 13,598 13,893 14,323 14,765 15,262
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25,391 26,106 26,846 27,609 28,207 29,081 29,977 30,987
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25,391 26,106 26,846 27,609 28,207 29,081 29,977 30,987
24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500
84,916 103,869 124,035 145,556 168,211 191,803 216,247 241,637 267,744 294,589
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
109,416 128,369 148,535 170,056 192,711 216,303 240,747 266,137 292,244 319,089
14,846 9,077 4,339 558 558 558 558 558 558 558
14845.629 9077.2028 4338.8065 558.00652 558.00652 558.00652 558.00652 558.00652 558.00652 558.00652
21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926 21,926
146,187 159,371 174,800 192,539 215,195 238,786 263,230 288,621 314,728 341,573
186,477 195,785 197,742 199,720 201,717 203,734 205,772 215,272 224,868 234,559
79,487 87,563 95,732 103,432 110,700 117,570 124,074 130,241 136,659 143,317
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
106,990 108,222 102,011 96,288 91,017 86,164 81,698 85,032 88,209 91,242
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1,114 1,169 1,181 1,193 1,205 1,217 1,229 1,286 1,343 1,401
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654 23,654
139 146 151 155 160 163 167 171 176 181
14,002 14,669 15,207 15,647 16,066 16,456 16,809 17,230 17,745 18,270
17,990 29,962 51,650 75,149 103,111 131,587 160,525 182,572 205,502 229,315
5,666 5,936 6,153 6,331 6,501 6,658 6,802 6,972 7,180 7,392
37,798 50,712 73,161 97,283 125,836 154,864 184,302 206,945 230,603 255,158
20,912 21,908 22,711 23,367 23,993 24,576 25,104 25,732 26,501 27,285
462 484 501 516 530 542 554 568 585 602
21,374 22,391 23,213 23,883 24,523 25,118 25,658 26,300 27,086 27,887
16,424 28,321 49,949 73,399 101,314 129,746 158,644 180,645 203,517 227,271
7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527 7,527
10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447 10,447
-2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920 -2,920
925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925 925
146,187 159,371 174,800 192,539 215,195 238,786 263,230 288,621 314,728 341,573
OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
Cash Flow
Changes in investments 0 0
Capex -14,870 -15,019
Change in CWIP 470 -90
Cash flow from investing -14,401 -15,109
1,000 1,000 3,572 8,058 17,990 29,962 51,650 75,149 103,111 131,587
29,839 32,044 34,001 35,855 37,563 38,941 40,066 41,138 42,137 43,043
109 96 86 81 75 60 49 47 44 40
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-6,036 -6,803 -7,750 -8,602 -9,335 -9,933 -10,600 -11,159 -11,620 -12,039
23,911 25,337 26,337 27,334 28,302 29,068 29,515 30,026 30,561 31,043
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-15,169 -9,034 -9,124 -9,215 -9,308 -1,958 -1,977 -1,997 -2,017 -2,037
-91 -54 -54 -55 -56 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12
-15,260 -9,088 -9,179 -9,270 -9,363 -1,970 -1,989 -2,009 -2,029 -2,050
-4,352 -3,633 -2,626 -1,805 -1,199 -673 -245 -56 -56 -56
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-9,087 -10,045 -10,045 -6,326 -5,768 -4,738 -3,781 0 0 0
4,788 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-8,652 -13,678 -12,671 -8,132 -6,968 -5,411 -4,026 -56 -56 -56
1,000 3,572 8,058 17,990 29,962 51,650 75,149 103,111 131,587 160,525
Mar-30 Mar-31 Mar-32 Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
0 0 0 0 0 0 23,654 0
-9,500 -9,595 -9,691 -9,788 -2,443 -2,468 -2,493 -6,133
-57 -57 -58 -58 -15 -15 -15 -37
-9,557 -9,653 -9,749 -9,847 -2,458 -2,483 21,147 -6,170
0 1 2 3 4
Assumptions Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Additions
T2 investment
Capex - RAB
RAB 125,029
Aero Revenues
RABB * WACC
Add: Depreciation
Add: OM (efficient operating and maintenance costs)
Add: Corporate tax on aero services
Less: S - 30% of the gross revenue
Total Aero revenues
329 374 317 187 191 13,272 13,404 13,538 8,063 8,143
697 794 673 397 405 13,272 13,404 13,538 8,063 8,143
125,029 125,726 126,520 121,621 115,738 110,449 118,476 126,029 133,147 134,251
3,697 3,895 5,572 6,279 5,694 5,245 5,851 6,421 6,958 7,041
329 374 673 397 405 13,272 13,404 13,538 8,063 8,143
125,726 126,520 121,621 115,738 110,449 118,476 126,029 133,147 134,251 135,353
5,572 6,279 5,694 5,245 5,851 6,421 6,958 7,041
8,225 8,307 1,747 1,765 1,783 1,800 1,818 8,479 8,564 8,650
8,225 8,307 1,747 1,765 1,783 1,800 1,818 8,479 8,564 8,650
135,353 136,453 137,553 132,009 126,902 122,198 117,866 113,880 116,855 119,691
7,125 7,208 7,291 6,872 6,487 6,132 5,805 5,504 5,728 5,942
8,225 8,307 1,747 1,765 1,783 1,800 1,818 8,479 8,564 8,650
136,453 137,553 132,009 126,902 122,198 117,866 113,880 116,855 119,691 122,398
7,125 7,208 7,291 6,872 6,487 6,132 5,805 5,504 5,728 5,942
14,096 14,209 13,637 13,109 12,623 12,176 11,764 12,071 12,364 12,644
7,125 7,208 7,291 6,872 6,487 6,132 5,805 5,504 5,728 5,942
38,914 41,249 43,517 45,693 47,749 49,659 51,397 52,939 54,527 56,163
60,134 62,665 64,444 65,674 66,859 67,966 68,966 70,514 72,620 74,749
385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
595 585 570 553 539 527 517 513 513 512
26,778 28,385 29,946 31,443 32,858 34,172 35,368 36,430 37,522 38,648
265 265 265 265 265 265 265 265 265 265
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mar-33 Mar-34 Mar-35 Mar-36 Mar-37
Capacity
Capex increase
T3 34 Mn to 45 Mn Pax
Increase in area 11
Apron costs
Other associated structures apron / Design / Supervision etc.
Capex Phasing
T1
T3
T2 to T4/T5 (2030)
Other capex
Maintenance capex 1%
Capex
Passenger capacity
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
Total
Capacity Additions
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
Passenger growth
Capacity utilization
Gross Block
Accumulated Depreciation
Net Block
Depreciation
4.7%
Mar 15 (12) Mar 16 (12) Mar 17 (12) Mar-18 Mar-19
Comments
9,414 9,414
4,315 4,315
1,140 1,289
14,870 15,019
20 20 20 20
6 6
34 34 34 34
54 54 60 60
41 48.5 57.7 65.4 73.0
18% 19% 13% 12%
63.5
9,414
4,315
7,443 7,443 7,443 7,443
40 40 40 40 40
6 6 6 6 0
45 45 45 45 45
0 0 0 0 25
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
91 91 91 91 110
20
0 -6
11
25
80.3 87.5 94.5 101.1 107.2
10% 9% 8% 7% 6%
40 40 40 40 40
0 0 0 0 0
45 45 45 45 45
25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
110 110 110 110 110
113.0 118.7 124.0 129.0 133.5
6% 5% 5% 4% 4%
40 40 40 40 40
0 0 0 0 0
45 45 45 45 45
25 25 25 25 25
0 0 0 30 30
0 0 0 0 0
110 110 110 140 140
30
137.5 141.6 145.9 150.3 154.8
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
40 40 40
0 0 0
45 45 45
25 25 25
30 30 30
0 0 0
140 140 140
159.4 164.2 169.1
3% 3% 3%
Debt Outstanding
Interest
18,593
34,027
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3,503 1,516 558 558 558 558 558 558 558 558
1,988 958 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1,516 558 558 558 558 558 558 558 558 558
252 104 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
56 56 56 56
56 56 56 56
0 0 0 0
558 558 558 558
Description Area (sqm)
Passenger Terminal Building 103,000
Apron Development 118,734
Approach Ramp
Preliminaries
Insurance & Permits
Design Development
Supervision
Contingencies
Sub-total
Interest during construction
Total
Source
Est. Cost (Rs. Mn) Cost per sqm
14,498 140,759
1,294 10,897
1,085
340
200
500
922
1,051
19,890
2,353
22,243
65%
0.44
Exchange rate depreciation