Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Increased
ASEAN Unity Amidst Increasing
Tensions?
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 8, 2018
A senior official in Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave our organization an
exclusive background briefing on the 51st ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) last
week.We request your assessment of several points that he made.
Q1 – The Foreign Ministry official said that at the 51st AMM there was a return of
ASEAN's members in raising one voice on South China Sea disputes. All ten countries
showed a higher interest in the South China Sea this year, compared to AMMs in
previous years (where some member did not contribute or participate in discussions
on the South China Sea). Do you agree with this assessment?
ANSWER: It is clear there is greater consensus among ASEAN members this year as
compared to last year on the wording of ASEAN’s position on the South China Sea. I
have been able to read the drafts of the joint communiqués prepared for both
meetings, the 50th AMM) and 51st AMM, and compare them with the final approved
official joint communiqués.
Last year Vietnam was the one country that pressed for stronger language in the
draft joint statement across all four paragraphs in the South China Sea section.
Malaysia provided some support by suggesting reference be made to military assets.
The Philippines and Cambodia clearly supported deleting and watering down strong
language and references that could be construed as referring to or were critical of
China. Due to a lack of consensus Vietnam’s attempt to put in stronger wording was
not accepted.
The text below includes suggested changes to the draft text. The legend is: BD =
Brunei, CA = Cambodia, ID = Indonesia, PH = Philippines, LA = Laos, MY = Malaysia,
MM = Myanmar, SG = Singapore, TH = Thailand, and VN = Vietnam.
Contrary to your Foreign Ministry source, this draft indicates that all ten members of
ASEAN responded (two said they would get back rather than suggest an opinion on
the draft).
50th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Draft Joint Communique
South China Sea
190. We discussed extensively the matters relating to the South China Sea
and reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, security,
stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and over-flight above the South
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China Sea. ( [We reiterated our shared (VN; MY, PH to get back)
commitments to upholding the agreed principles on the South China Sea
issue, as reflected in previous documents of ASEAN as well as those
between ASEAN and its partners(VN; CA to delete; PH, CA to get back) to
make the South China Sea a sea of peace, stability, friendship and
cooperation.
191. We acknowledged the positive developments on the South China Sea
between ASEAN and China since last year. We welcomed the conclusion and
looked forward to the adoption of the framework of a Code of Conduct in the
South China Sea (COC) by the Foreign Ministers of ASEAN Member States and
China at the Post Ministerial Conference Plus One Session with China. In view
of this positive momentum and in this context, we reaffirmed ASEAN’s
readiness to begin negotiations on the COC, and tasked our Senior Officials to
work with their counterparts from China to start the negotiation for an
effective and substantive [and legally binding (VN to retain; CA, SG, MY to
delete; BD, MM, ID, TH are flexible)] COC as soon as possible.
192. We took note of serious concerns expressed by some Ministers over
recent developments in the area, [such as extended construction (VN) and
presence of military assets (MY) including those by non-claimant nations,
(PH, ID to delete)] (PH, CA to delete) that escalate tensions, which have
eroded trust and confidence, and may undermine peace, security and
stability in the region, and in this regard we reaffirmed the importance of
[non-militarisation] (CA to get back) and self-restraint in the conduct of all
activities that could further complicate the situation in the South China Sea.
193. We further reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual trust and
confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of activities, pursuing
mutually agreed practical maritime cooperation, avoiding actions that may
further complicate the situation, and resolving disputes by peaceful means,
without resorting to the threat or use of force, and in accordance with the
universally recognised principles of international law including the 1982
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), [with full
respect for legal and diplomatic processes,(VN; CA, PH to delete)] (this is
also introduced under the ASEAN Community Building section) [to
transform South China Sea into a sea of peace, stability [and sustainable
development](TH proposal; PH, CA, ID, BD, MM, MY, SG to delete; LA to
move to another section).
At the 51st AMM this year fewer countries commented on the draft joint
communiqué’s section on the South Chins Sea. This section contained only two
paragraphs. Three countries suggested a total of six revisions – Brunei four and the
Philippines and Singapore one each. Most of the comments were minor.
I have colour coded the changes in the text of the final joint communiqué below. The
words highlighted in green in brackets indicate the changes made in the original
draft to the final text. The first highlight in yellow shows that the words “with
satisfaction” were dropped and changed to “We noted…” The next sentence in blue
was added to the draft. The change in wording of the second paragraph was minor.
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51st ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (final official joint communiqué)

South China Sea
74. We reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, security,
stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South
China Sea and recognised the benefits of having the South China Sea as a sea of
peace, stability and prosperity. We underscored the importance of the full and
effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the
South China Sea (DOC) in its entirety. We warmly welcomed the continued
improving cooperation between ASEAN and China and were encouraged by the
progress of the substantive negotiations towards the early conclusion of an
effective Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) on a mutually-agreed
timeline. We noted [deleted “with satisfaction”] that ASEAN Member States and
China had agreed on a Single Draft COC Negotiating Text at the 15th ASEAN-China
Senior Officials’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in Changsha, China, on 27 June 2018. In
this regard, we emphasised the need to maintain an environment conducive to
the COC negotiations. We welcomed practical measures that could reduce
tensions, and the risk of accidents, misunderstandings and miscalculation, such as
the successful testing of the ASEAN Member States and China MFA-to-MFA
hotline to manage maritime emergencies in the South China Sea, and the
operationalisation of the Joint Statement on the Application of the Code for
Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) in the South China Sea adopted on 7
September 2016. We stressed the importance of undertaking confidence building
and preventive measures to enhance, among others, trust and confidence
amongst parties.
75. We discussed the matters relating to the South China Sea and took note of
some concerns [replacing: “the concerns expressed by some countries”] on the
land reclamations and activities in the area, which have eroded trust and
confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability
in the region. We reaffirmed the need to enhance mutual trust and confidence,
exercise self-restraint [was plural] in the conduct of activities and avoid actions
that may further complicate the situation, and pursue peaceful resolution of
disputes in accordance with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS. We
emphasised the importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct
of all activities by claimants and all other states, including those mentioned in the
DOC that could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions in the
South China Sea.
The only other change of relevance was from the Philippines that a reference in the
first section of the joint communiqué be moved from point 8 to become point 3 for
emphasis. This was agreed. This is the point in question:
3. We reaffirmed our shared commitment to maintaining and promoting peace,
security and stability in the region [Thailand’s suggestion to include “commitment
to regionalism and multilateralism” was not included], as well as to the peaceful
resolution of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes,
without resorting to the threat or use of force, in accordance with the universally
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recognised principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations

Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The differences in how ASEAN responded at each AMM can be explained by the role
of the ASEAN Chair, the Philippines in 2017 and Singapore in 2018. Another factor is
important, ASEAN and China senior officials agreed in late June 2018 on a Single
Draft South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiating Text. This is a positive step and
ASEAN member states are now stakeholders in completing negotiations with China
on a Code of Conduct. This development may make ASEAN consensus easier to
achieve. This year neither Cambodia nor Vietnam suggested any changes to the
wording of the South China Sea text in the draft joint communiqué.
Q2 - At the same time, China is pressing more and more on many fronts such as on
the sea, diplomatically etc. in order to control the waters in the South China Sea.
Some people compare the situation in the South Chian Sea to a thermos container
(hot inside and cold outside). Do you agree with this comparison? What is your
assessment?
ANSWER: China is pressing for negotiations with ASEAN members on a Code of
Conduct because China seeks to exclude outside powers from joint development of
oil and gas, military exercises and protection of the marine environment. This is clear
from the wording of China’s contributions to the Single Draft South China Sea Code
of Conduct Negotiating Text.
China is also using diplomatic means to distract attention from its militarization of
the South China Sea. This year China deployed electronic jammers, surface to air
missiles and anti-ship missiles on its artificial islands. In part this is in response to the
Trump Administration’s step up of freedom of navigation patrols, naval presence
patrols (the number of ship days in the South China Sea increased from 700 in 2017
to 900 last year), and continuous bomber presence patrols from Diego Garcia in the
Indian Ocean and Guam over the South China Sea.
It was notable earlier this year when China conducted a 41-ship naval exercise, its
largest in the South China Sea, that the United States deployed three powerful air
craft strike groups to conduct exercises.
The temperature is slowly rising in the South China Sea thermos but it has not
reached boiling point. There have not been any unsafe Chinese intercepts of U.S.
maritime patrol aircraft over the South China Sea nor have there been any naval
incidents between the People’s Liberation Army Navy warships and those of the U.S.
Navy this year.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Increased ASEAN Unity
Amidst Increasing Tensions?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 8, 2018.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.