Running Head: The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

By: Geddy Semidei
Liberty University
CJUS 480
Instructor: Richard D. Baranzini
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

Thesis Statement

A modern connected society poses many advantages for the Terror Eco-System, while
providing new challenges for the intelligence services seeking to undermine the Terror Eco-
System.

Abstract

The terror Eco-System is similar to any other eco-system that has been discovered and studied by
science. It is a complex system of checks and balances, comprised of many individual cells that
make up the larger system. Like any other eco-system it is constantly evolving and adapting to
changing conditions and new stimuli. The modern world is living in a connected state that has
never before been seen in known human history. The ability for people to connect with each
other without the hassles of travel or borders is a wonderful tool that allows for a freer and more
open world. However this interconnected society also allows the terror eco-system to accomplish
the same tasks although with different motives and implications. Two of the most powerful force
multipliers available are technology and transnational support. This paper aims to explore how
the modern connected society affects the terror eco-system in regards to these two force
multipliers and the implications of that relationship. To a lesser degree the implications of this
relationship on the intelligence agencies that seek to monitor the terror eco-system will also be
examined.

Keywords: Technology, Transnational Support, Ecosystem, Implications

The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

Introduction

The terror Eco-System is similar to any other eco-system that has been discovered and

studied by science. It is a complex system of checks and balances, comprised of many individual

cells that make up the larger system. Like any other eco-system it is constantly evolving and

adapting to changing conditions and new stimuli. The modern world is living in a connected state

that has never before been seen in known human history. The ability for people to connect with

each other without the hassles of travel or borders is a wonderful tool that allows for a freer and

more open world. However this interconnected society also allows the terror eco-system to

accomplish the same tasks although with different motives and implications. Two of the most

powerful force multipliers available are technology and transnational support. This paper aims to

explore how the modern connected society affects the terror eco-system in regards to these two

force multipliers and the implications of that relationship. To a lesser degree the implications of

this relationship on the intelligence agencies that seek to monitor the terror eco-system will also

be examined.

What is the Terror Eco-System?

The phrase Terror Eco-System, referred to from this point on as the T.S, refers to the idea

that many small pieces of this system such as: individuals, cells, groups, nation states, and

governments make up a larger T.S that is every evolving and exists both in conjunction with and

apart from the individual pieces. According to Nature Works an ecosystem is a “An ecosystem is

a community of living and non-living things that work together. Ecosystems have no particular
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

size. An ecosystem can be as large as a desert or a lake or as small as a tree or a puddle.” This

definition is easily adapted to the world of terrorism as we know it today. As previously stated

terror networks are comprised of small individual pieces that may only be comprised of as few as

one or two individuals, but these small nodes are a part of the larger overall network. On a global

scale these networks combine to create the larger Terror Ecosystem. It is important to understand

this structure in order to further evaluate how the connected society impacts the ecosystem.

During his research Lee Hamilton (2007), found that the overall power and influence are

determined by a variety of factors not limited to size, safety and command structure. Hamilton

(2007) also found that the well-known model of a terrorist society does not always hold true

because of the great variety that can be found in the terror eco-system. This provides us with an

understanding of how traditional terror networks have existed. This paper will explore how a

connected world has allowed this definition to evolve.

How a connected society affects the T.S

The modern world is experiencing a new phenome of connectivity that has never before

been experienced. The ability to communicate privately around the globe without fear of borders

or oppressive governments allows a new era of information exchange that has already impacted

the modern world. However with all things there are two sides of every story and the unfortunate

result of all of this access is that terrorists are also able to now communicate around the world

without ever having to leave the safety of their compound. This unprecedented freedom means

that the traditional definition of a terror network is evolving in the same way that the definition

of community has evolved since the popularization of the internet and social media. In the past a

community was a close knit group of people who lived in proximity to one another and often
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

adapted a similar lifestyle and view of the world. Terror networks operated in much the same

way often working in localized areas without the ability to truly spread and share their message.

The adaptation of a connected society changed the definition of a community from being a local

idea to one where thousands of people from around the world can join together to share similar

interests and discuss these interests. A connected world also allowed terrorists to come together

and discuss their ideologies and share resources. As Clay Shirky describes this access to

information will have lasting impacts on both communities “As the communications landscape

gets denser, more complex, and more participatory, the networked population is gaining greater

access to information, more opportunities to engage in public speech, and an enhanced ability to

undertake collective action. In the political arena, as the protests in Manila demonstrated, these

increased freedoms can help loosely coordinated publics demand change.” Clearly a connected

society impacts a terror networks ability to grow and allows these networks to operated together

and share resources, thus creating the larger terror ecosystem.

Force Multipliers: Technology

The key to this connected world is technology and it widespread availability. Without

access to phones, computers, and the internet the world would not have the ability to achieve such

unfettered communications. Technology is very important to the T.S especially in the regards of

recruitment and promotion. Terror cells now have the ability to funnel information into any

bedroom in America from a cave anywhere in the world in order to recruit soldiers to their cause,

who in many cases, already live inside of the intended target countries. With access to these key

pieces of technology available virtually everywhere it is clear that terror groups are adapting the

use of these device within their organizations. Technology is one of the greatest force multipliers
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

because it allows for these hidden groups to reach out and find others who believe in the same

mission and ideologies. With increased communication comes increased support, opportunities,

and soldiers. Perhaps the first group to truly adapt this method without abandon is the Islamic State

or I.S.I.S. According to David P. Fidler “The rise of the Islamic State has intensified the challenge.

The Islamic State is more strategic online, demonstrates greater social media sophistication, and

operates in cyberspace on a larger scale and intensity than previous terrorist groups. Its online

propaganda is linked with radicalized individuals traveling to fight in Syria and Iraq or committing

"lone-wolf" terrorism in the West…” The effects of this globalization has already been made clear

considering the attacks in San Bernardino California and others. This is only the beginning and

there is likely to have been major implications of this connectivity that have not been discovered

at the time of this writing.

Force Multipliers: Transnational Support

Technology and a connected society greatly impact the T.S in another arena,

Transnational Support. Again without the hindrance of travel and border security small cells or

individuals are able to communicate with each other along with larger more established groups

or nation states. This in and of itself can be said to be the cradle of life for the T.S. The

aforementioned attack in California is a direct result of a connected society resulting in

Transnational Support. The attackers were in America and yet were influenced by I.S.I.S from

around the globe by means of social media and other forms of propaganda. According to Kunkle

(2012) Terrorists are using social media to target the young people of a nation in order to plant

the seeds of terror in other countries, by building this kind of underground community the

terrorists spread their influence. Notice the reference to community in Mr.Kunkle’s writing, this
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

free access to information exchange has truly created a Transnational Community of terrorists, or

Terror Ecosystem, just as this paper has stated.

Obviously this is only one example of Transnational Support being achieved by means of

a connected society but in the future the possibilities are endless. A small cell in South Africa

could now easily reach out to larger organization on the other side of the globe such as the

Taliban or Hezbollah and potentially receive support in many forms including but not limited to

money, weapons, manpower, intelligence, and public recognition. All of these would give that

small group resources that would have never have been achievable without the connected

society.

Implications for an Intelligence Agency

Despite recent news coverage of the tactics used by some intelligence agencies, and the

perceived inescapability of their dragnets, these agencies cannot monitor all communications on

a global scale even if they were freed of legal entanglements. The shear amount of data at any

given moment is unfathomable and even if safeguards such as encryption and ip spoofing were

not common place it is certainly an impossible task. For example, the aforementioned California

attacks have surfaced in the news again, because the FBI cannot gain access to an IPhone that

belonged to one of the shooters. That phone could hold valuable intelligence that could lead to a

potential terror network. However Apple has not yet provided the FBI with a means to access

this information because of concerns over end-user privacy. This shows how important it is

going to be for intelligence agencies to work with the private sector in order to monitor and

prosecute the terrorists of the future. Communications are no longer sent in letters or by word of

mouth but instead now only exist as zeros and ones on a computer hard drive somewhere in the

world. This poses a massive problem to a community who has traditionally relied on gather
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

human intelligence as a way to work their way up the ladder to a person who will have

actionable intelligence. It is even easier now for organizations to keep key intelligence

compartmentalized from all but the leadership, therefore greatly reducing the ability for

intelligence agencies to gain access to this key intelligence.

However it is not impossible to combat terrorism in connected society as Steve Ressler

explains “The Analyst Notebook is the primary software used for link analysis. Currently on its

sixth version, this software is recognized as one of the world’s leading analytical tools and is

employed in more than 1,500 organizations (“Contraband Enforcement”). Social network

analysis improves upon link analysis by moving from single variable analysis to multivariate

analysis, allowing the individual to control for many factors at once. The change from single

variable to multivariate analysis is quite significant when researching terrorism: a number of

factors affect terrorism, not one single factor. For example, the propensity for one to participate

in a terrorist activity might not be strongly affected by the single variable of being related to a

terrorist member. However, the combination of multiple variables such as poverty, type of

government, combined with the link to a terrorist member may cause a person to participate in a

terrorist activity.” The Analyst Notebook is a key step in the evolution of intelligence gathering

and provides a model on which to base further intelligence gathering techniques aimed at a terror

ecosystem.

Conclusion

In conclusion a connected society does an immeasurable amount of good for the world

and allows for freedom as society has never known it. However with all things the darkness is

ever present and those who seek to dismantle the free world have access to the same tools that

enabled the free world to exist. It is important to understand how new technologies and ways of
The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

life impact the Terror Eco-System because in order to get ahead of an adversary one must first

understand its inner workings. Clearly it is time to stop thinking of terror organizations as the

“J.V Squad” and begin to look at them as an ever evolving, sophisticated ecosystem made up of

an infinite number of cells that can each move freely and take the place of a dead cell in order to

keep the ecosystem alive. Finally I would like to cite Jonathan R White “The Internet can be a

weapon, and either side may use it effectively.” Without understanding this fact and adapting

techniques to analyze this ecosystem the possibility of destroying it is non-existent.

The Implications of a Connected Society on the Terror Eco-System

Bibliography

Fidler, David P. (June 2015) “Countering Islamic State Exploitation of the

Internet” Council on Foreign Relations Press. Retrieved from:
http://www.cfr.org/cybersecurity/countering-islamic-state-exploitation-
internet/p36644
Hamilton, Lee (Aug15, 2007) “Terrorist Organizational Models” A Military Guide
to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. Chapter 3. Retrieved from:
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army/guidterr/ch03.pdf
Kunkle, Joseph. (June 2012) “Social Media and the Homegrown Terrorist Threat”
The Police Chief. Retrieved from:
http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/magazine/index.cfm?fuseaction=display&arti
cle_id=2692&issue_id=62012
Ressler, Steve. (July 2006) “Social Network Analysis as an Approach to Combat
Terrorism: Past, Present, and Future Research” The Journal of the NPS Center for
Homeland Defense and Security. Retrieved from: https://www.hsaj.org/articles/171
Shirky, Clay. (Jan/Feb 2011) “The Political Power of Social Media” Council on
Foreign Relations. Retrieved from: http://sites.asiasociety.org/womenleaders/wp-
content/uploads/2010/05/The-Political-Power-of-Social-Media-Foreign-
Affairs2.pdf
White, Jonathan R. (2012) “Terrorism and Homeland Security” pg.96 Eighth
Edition. Wadsworth/ Cenage Learning.