October 1, 2010

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Jeff Liszt / Zac McCrary
Re: Summary of General Election Polling Results in West Virginia CD-03

Congressman Nick Rahall holds a commanding 25-point lead over Republican challenger Spike
Maynard. With only one month remaining before the election, Maynard’s high unfavorable
rating makes it very difficult for him to expand his vote. The fundamentally Democratic nature
of this district also works in Rahall’s favor and limits Maynard’s ability to benefit from national
political trends. With sufficient resources to continue his strong paid communication campaign,
Nick Rahall is extremely well positioned to win re-election.

Nick Rahall leads Republican Spike Maynard by 25 points

• Roughly a month from Election Day, Nick Rahall leads Spike Maynard by 25 points (59%
Rahall / 34% Maynard). Even if Maynard were to secure every undecided voter (7%), he
would still trail by 18 points.

• Rahall leads among men and women, self-identified Independents, registered Independents,
and in both the Charleston / Huntingdon and the Bluefield / Beckley / Oak Hill media
markets.

Spike Maynard’s high unfavorable rating makes it very difficult for him to expand his vote

• Maynard’s unfavorable rating is10 points higher than his favorable rating (30% Favorable /
40% Unfavorable). Maynard still carries scars from his controversial tenure on the State
Supreme Court, his 2008 re-election loss, and the aggressiveness of the Rahall campaign thus
far. His net-unfavorable rating severely hampers his ability to pick up additional votes.

The 3rd District is fundamentally favorable terrain for Democrats, even in this difficult cycle

• Democrats hold a 31-point advantage in self-identification in the 3rd District, and nearly 60%
of voters identify themselves as Democrats (59% Dem / 29% GOP / 12% Ind).

• Democrats hold a double-digit lead on the generic ballot (47% Democrat / 37% Republican).
Spike Maynard’s vote share (34%) is even lower than the Republican generic ballot (37%),
another indication of the difficulty his high unfavorable rating poses for him.

• Democrats hold an advantage of nearly 3:1 in party registration (69% Dem / 24% GOP / 7%
Other).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 General Election voters in WV CD-03.
Interviews were conducted September 27-29, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically
based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.49 with a 95% confidence level.