11,000 Years of Climate Change:

Natural Cycles or Human Made?

From the beginning of the industrial revolution in the late 1800’s up to the present, mankind has done
nothing but destroy the environment. Even rivers have been known to catch fire from ignorance and
disrespect for the environment. Coal became the energy of choice blackening the skies with ash, soot
and smog in every city of the modern world. Devastating chemicals like freon, mercury, lead and DDT
were once commonplace. Today the burning of fossil fuels is obviously the most difficult issue man has
to consider as we move into the future. Scientists and environmentalists have convinced the majority of
right thinking humans that we alone are responsible for global warming.
However, mankind and the pollution we produce were not responsible for the four other cycles of global
warming and global cooling that have occurred over the past 2200 years. These periods and their
scientific names are described in the following chart.

B.C. 250 – A.D. 436 Roman Warming Period

A.D. 436 – A.D. 950 Dark Ages Cooling Period
A.D. 950 – A.D.1350 Middle Ages Warming Period
A.D.1350- A.D.1850 Mini Ice Age
A.D.1850- A.D. Now Un-named
Knowing that these periods are real and, relatively speaking, not so long ago gives pause for broader
thinking on the subject of climate change. Global cooling can almost unquestionably be attributed to
massive and sustained volcanic eruptions of category 6 and greater, while past global warming periods
remain something of an enigma whose causes are difficult to pinpoint.

History is an amazing amalgamation of anecdotes and facts. We know a lot about our past but the concept
of “recorded history” barely goes back 200 years and even then, the first 50 years are sketchy. We know
that the Western Roman Empire began to fail about 436 and then the empire had completely collapsed
by 472. Most historians will agree that this era coincided with the beginning of what is known as the dark
ages cooling period (episode of human migration).

There had been roughly 600 years of relatively static global warming throughout the reign of the Romans
which began about 250 BC. Then cataclysmically in 436 the world’s most notorious volcano, Krakatoa,
exploded and sent the world into something akin to a Nuclear winter. Furthermore some scientists now
believe that Ilopango in Central America also erupted at roughly the same time. If the experiences of
Tambora in 1815 are any guide to these two converging eruptions there would have been massive crop
failures, famine, starvation and mass migration from the frozen waste lands of the northern fringes of
the empire. Then to make matters worse, due to such a sudden drop in temperatures, along came the
first outbreak of the plague commonly known as “the plague of Justinian”. 20–30% of the population of
the known world are said to have perished – 50% of the people in Rome.

During the subsequent 500 years the Dark Ages Cooling Period overtook the world. Those few who
survived famine and the scourge of the plague had precious little to hold on to. In 829 and in 1010 the
River Nile froze over. Today, Cairo’s average daytime temperature in December is 25oC.Temperatures
would have had to drop by 35o for at least 1 week for this to have happened – imagine! Life in the northern
regions of Europe where farming had been possible for the previous 500 years was now impossible.
Struggles and wars broke out for agricultural land that had been developed farther south in Europe where
subsistence farming remained possible. The Vikings and the “Barbarian Hordes” moved south in search
of food, arable land and a renewed subsistence. That which was not readily available they took or
conquered.

Five hundred years later the Earth entered an extensive warming period again that led to the Vikings
exploring Iceland, Greenland and at least as far west as Newfoundland. The trading route went from
Norway to Iceland, Greenland to Newfoundland back to Iceland and Ireland then back again. In the year
950 AD, Eric the Red and 20 ship loads of his fellow countrymen established European settlements on the
southwest coast of Greenland which was designated one of the trading posts of the Viking people that
would last for nearly 500 years. Birch trees 60’ tall grew in the verdant soil providing firewood for the
settler’s encampments…life was good. Small farms with life sustaining gardens and livestock grew to
about 50 communities with over 3,000 people along the south coast of Greenland.

This period is known scientifically as the “Medieval Warming Period”. During this time it is estimated
that the worldwide human population was about 2-3 hundred million people compared to today’s 7 billion.
At that time humans had fire, the wheel, bows & arrows, flint and ingenuity to make their way in the
world. Nothing that humans could have done at that time would have caused “Global Warming” yet it
happened nonetheless.
For European settlements to have existed on Greenland for nearly 500 years, what we now know as the
Greenland Ice Pack would have been 20-30% smaller than it is today. Birch trees 60’ tall used for fire
wood needed 100 years to have grown to those heights before the settlements could have been
established. What caused this global warming, because clearly, it was not humans burning fossil fuels
that caused it? Again, what caused the Roman Warming Period that lasted some 600 years 1000 years
before?
The two most likely sources for warming 1000 or 2000 years ago are the awesome power of the sun or
massive volcanic eruptions of lava from volcanoes either above or below the oceans. In September 2015,
the US Geological Service NOAA announced in Scientific American that more than 1/2 of the Earth’s heat
comes from nuclear fission emitted from the core of our planet. Be it the Sun or heat from the core of
the Earth, each of these natural events is capable of dramatically changing world wide weather patterns
over long periods of time, and in some cases may even alter the Earth’s north/south axis by shifting the
continental balance.

If it was the sun that caused the cycles of warming then we would see major signs in polar ice core
samples. While some minor variations have appeared sporadically over the centuries none have been
identified that are substantial enough or sustained enough to vary the earth’s climate sufficiently to
cause long term global warming.
We know that massive eruptions above land can and do cause global cooling. Volcanoes that have a
sustained volcanic eruption index (VEI) above 6 usually lead to some global cooling. The longer lasting
eruptions may cause extensive climate cooling. Tambora, a category 7 volcano, erupted in 1815 and led
to “the year without summer” in 1816 causing massive crop failures in both the northern and southern
hemispheres. Widespread crop failure and famine, led to mass migration into cities and beyond to any
foreign land that might show promise for a better life.

Mass burial sites for the people who died of starvation due to this famine were widespread throughout
northern Europe and Asia. People in north eastern North America were driven from their homes to the
western plains where the weather was better and showed promise for better things to come. In 1816 Oak
trees in the northeastern USA did not show any signs of any growth - an extremely rare event in trees
growing anywhere in the world.

At least two volcanoes exceeding 7 on the VEI index are said to have led to the Mini Ice Age circa 1350
which are said to have wiped out the European settlements in Greenland. Speculation is that Kuwae near
the island nation of Vanuatu and soon thereafter Krakatoa in Indonesia began this 500 year mini Ice Age
that we are just now evolving from. All together during this period there were 17 VEI 6 or greater
volcanoes. Some researchers point out that the effects of this period only began to dissipate in the early
20th century. Many researchers call the end of the mini ice age around 1850, however the eruption of
Krakatoa in 1863 significantly extended the period of cooling to the early 20th century.

Clearly then, Volcanoes on land or above the oceans could not have led to global warming since the
opposite has been shown to be the case. What if sub oceanic volcanic activity could be shown to
significantly alter planetary water temperatures and jet stream activity thereby changing the whole of
the Earth’s weather patterns? The El Nino effect is one such example of dramatic weather pattern
changes due to extensive increases in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
 The Axial Seamount – Fisheries and Oceans Canada, August 2015

One sub-oceanic volcano known as the Axial Seamount located 300 km off the coast of Oregon might give
us a clue about weather conditions that may be caused or varied by volcanoes erupting under the oceans.
The Axial Seamount erupted in 1998, 2011 and 2015. 1998 and 2015 each became known as the warmest
El Nino years in history respectively and coincidentally the worst Typhoon seasons in South East Asian
history. Meanwhile 2011 became known as the warmest La Nina year in history. These may be purely
coincidental or the extensive lava flows may have raised water temperatures and changed atmospheric
conditions enough to alter the major weather systems in the Pacific Basin.

Wikipedia suggests that the 2011 eruption expressed lava in the order of 18 to 76 cubic kilometers of
lava: an estimate of 15 and 75 cubic kilometers (cu km) will be used in the following analysis.

Results of Lava under the sea:

Lava erupts at about 1,000o C – about the same temperature as the melting point of steel
1 metric ton of steel takes 440 kWh of electricity to produce
It takes 7.8 metric tons to make 1 cubic meter of steel
There are 1 Billion cubic meters in 1 cubic kilometer of steel
It takes 3.432 trillion kWh of electricity to make 1 cubic kilometer of steel
That is 3,432 terawatts of electricity/cu km
All of Canada uses 566 terawatts of electricity per year
15 cubic kilometers of lava would be the same as
- 105 years of total Canadian electrical production
75 cu. Km. of lava would be the same as
- 525 years of total Canadian electrical production
PERSPECTIVE # 1 Lake Superior is 100,000 sq. km – the largest fresh water lake in the world
It contains 12 quadrillion liters of water
It takes 1 kilowatt to raise 1 liter of water 1o C
15 cu Km of lava is enough to raise the temperature of Lake Superior by 4 o C
75 cu Km of lava is enough to raise the temperature of Lake Superior by 20 0 C
Perspective #2 worldwide annual steel production 205,897,000 cubic meters
1 cubic kilometer of steel is = 1 billion cubic meters
5 years total worldwide steel production = 1 cubic kilometer
15 cu km of lava is equal to . . . 75 years total worldwide steel production
75 cu km of lava is equal to . . . 375 years total worldwide steel production
This is the lava from one volcano under the Ocean. What is the human effect compared to nature?
NOAA says 80% of volcanoes erupt under the Oceans. How much lava flows elsewhere under the sea?

Just 15 years ago, when we started studying global warming, scientists believed that there were only
about 10,000 active volcanoes under the oceans. Today we know that there are more than 3 million
active volcanoes under the world’s oceans. NOAA in Sept 2015 announced that more than 1/2 of the
Earth’s heat comes from the earth’s core, so maybe we have to look more closely for the natural causes
of climate change. The Axial Sea Mount off the coast of Oregon is the only sub oceanic volcano being
regularly studied anywhere in the world. It appears that we may be only 160 years into this natural
period of global warming and we have about 350 years left if the cycle. The human habit of burning fossil
fuels is, scientifically, little more than a statistical rounding error when compared to the mighty effect
of nature and all its power.
Let there be no mistake, nature all by its self, can, has and always will act independently of humans no
matter how powerful we may presume ourselves to be. The human ego is powerful, but storms, quakes,
tsunamis and volcanoes above and below the sea are the tools of nature that are constants against which
humanity is powerless. Even when planning is designed for the worst possible extreme of 100 years plus
25%, as in Fukoshema, nature can and will continue to surprise with shock and awe.
We fly to the Moon and to Mars and yet we know next to nothing about the oceans that cover 71% of our
little blue planet. Human vanity makes us think that we are responsible for Global Warming/climate
change, while the true cause is nature and its inescapable cycles. Since the beginning of time on planet
Earth, change is the eternal constant.
Wisdom would have us spending time and energy getting to know about, and preparing for, the inevitable
cycles of nature yet to come, let’s leave the mighty human ego at the door . . .

Jim Le Maistre, 2018 - Aldergrove, BC - 604 910 3885