Professional Documents
Culture Documents
NIT Jalandhar
07-09 April 2017
B N JHA
Confederation of Indian Industry
Institute of Quality
Bangalore
bnj6@Hotmail.com
1
Content
2
1. Overview of the session
3
Foundation for Operational Strategy:
Quality Productivity
4
Lean Thinking
Lean Thinking provides a way to specify value, line-up
value creating actions in best sequence, conduct these
activities without interruption and perform them more
and more effectively.
5
Evolution of Productivity Management
6
Toyota 3M Model : Muda, Mura and Muri
Toyota has developed its production system around eliminating
three enemies of Lean:
Mura (unevenness):
can be found in fluctuation in customer demand, process times per product or
variation of cycle times for different operators
Muri(overburden)
When operators or machines are utilized for more than 100% to finish their task,
they are overburdened
Muda (waste)
Defects, Overproduction, Waiting, Non-used Talent, Transport, Inventories, Motion
and Excess processing (DOWNTIME)
7
There are typically 8 types of waste
Overproduction
Producing too much,
or producing too soon
Transportation
Non-used Talent Any nonessential trans-
Any failure to fully port/handling is waste
utilize the time and
talents of people
Inventory
Any more than the mini-mum
Motion to get the job done
Any motion that does
not add value
Waiting
Waiting on information
Defect paperwork, or decision
Correction of an error or an making
incomplete activity
Excess processing
Doing things that the customer
doesn’t need you to do
8
Evolution of Quality Management:
Inspection
Quality Control
Quality Assurance
Total Quality Management / Six Sigma
Systems Standard for Quality (ISO 9000, TS 16949,etc)
Business Excellence Models (Deming, Malcolm Baldrige,
EFQM)
9
Six Sigma
The strategy involves creating groups of people within the business or organization
who have expert status in various methods, and then each project is carried out
according to a set of steps in an effort to reach specific financial milestones.
10
Meaning of Six Sigma
Lower Upper
Specification Limit Mean / Target Specification Limit
High
Probability
of Failure
1
3 3
Much Lower
Probability
1 of Failure
6 6
11
Sigma Level and Level of Defect
1 3,17,400 6,97,700
2 45,400 3,08,537
3 2,700 66,807
4 63 6,201
5 0.57 233
6 0.002 3.4
12
2. LSS Project Identification
13
Approach to Project Selection
Identify Opportunities
Identify Team
Stakeholder Buy-In
Charter
14
How to identify LSS Project Opportunities?
15
Key business Value Drivers
16
Project Prioritization
Impact
Critical to customer
Critical to business
Just Do It?
High
Boiling the Ocean
(or is additional discovery &
The problem must be solved (appropriate if scoped)
validation required?)
Feasibility
Moderate
Impact
Additional analysis & validation (well scoped, impactful,
required additional discovery
required)
Success Elements
Why Bother?
Dedicated resource that possesses process / Just Do It
Low
(no critical importance &
product expertise requires extensive effort to
(known & proven issues,
little risk involved)
Project meets expectations understand)
Completed in a short timeframe 3-6 months
Clear sponsorship and process ownership Low Moderate High
Adhering to a structured, well communicated Feasibility
improvement plan
17
Project Drill Down
Product/Process/Service
Product A Product B
/Service A /Service B
Process 1
Process 2
Process 3
Process 4
18
3. LSS Project Steps
19
Lean Six Sigma Roles
• Business strategist
Quality • Oversee project selection & resource allocation
Leader • Manage/Mentor BB and Master Black Belts
(QL) • Ensure cross-functional execution
• Cultural change agent for Six Sigma
20
LSS Project Steps
Analyse What are the potential root causes of & improvement opportunities?
21
DMAIC v/s DFSS
DMAIC DFSS
Define Define
Understanding the
characterisation
Requirement
Process
Analyse Analyse
Design
optimisation
Optimisation
Improve
Process
Optimise
Design
X’s
Control Validate
22
DMAIC
4. Validate
1. Project Charter 7. Identify Sources 10. Generate 13. Implement
Measurement
of Variation Solution Ideas Solution
System
23
Define
1. Project Charter
3. Process Mapping
Key Deliverables :
Develop Team Charter (Business case, Goal Statements, Scope, Milestone, Team..)
Stakeholder Analysis
Detailed Process Map
Applicable Tools :
Charter , RACI, ARMI
Stakeholder Analysis, Kano Model
Process Mapping – SIPOC, VSM
24
Measure
6. Establish Baseline
Key Deliverables :
Measurement system for Ys and Xs
Data Collection Plan & Compilation of Past Data
Quantification of current performance level
Applicable Tools :
Measurement System Analysis – Attribute and Variable
Types of Data, Sampling, Simple Seven Tools
Descriptive Statistics, Run Chart, Process Capability Analysis, Normality Plot
25
Analyse
Key Deliverables :
List of all potential causes
Classification of causes by impact
Validated root cause
Applicable Tools :
Simple Seven Tools, Process Maps
FMEA, Gemba Investigation
Box Plot, Run Charts, Test of Hypothesis, ANOVA, Regression, DOE
26
Improve
Key Deliverables :
Potential Solutions
Best Fit solution based on feasibility and impact
Validation of results
Applicable Tools :
Seven Management Tools
PAUG Matrix
TOH, ANOVA, Regression
27
Control
Key Deliverables :
Work Instructions and SOPs
Control Plans
Required communication and training
Applicable Tools :
Control Plans, SOPs
Control Charts
Poka Yoke
28
4. Project Charter and SIPOC
29
Project charter – Example
by Sep 2015 and reduce the gap between current level and 100% by Measure Validate Measurement System
Collect Data
one third Establish Baseline
Customers in southern region • Team Members: VP, MSA, AYS, Improve Generate Solution Ideas
excluding Chennai Circle Select Best Fit Solution
Test Solution & Confirm Results
Financial benefits
• Opportunity gain by early on-boarding (To be estimated)
• Achieve benchmark level to enable increase in market share
Resources
•Field and branch staff
•IT
30
Project charter – Example
•Reduce the timer field failure for ‘ABC’ washing machine model by 80 Define Project Charter
Stakeholder Analysis
% by 20th Mar 2014 Process Mapping
•Reduce overall filed failure cost by 30 % by Q1 2014 Measure Validate Measurement System
•Customer satisfaction improvement by 60 % for ABC washing model Collect Data
Establish Baseline
for Q1 2014 survey
Analysis Identify Sources of Variation
Funnel Causes
Validate Root Cause
Scope (IN & OUT bonds) Team Members
Semi automatic machines model • Team Leader: AB, Improve Generate Solution Ideas
Select Best Fit Solution
ABAC • Team Members: RS, MS, YS, Test Solution & Confirm Results
• Supply chain Head Control Implement Solution
Monitor Process & Results
Customers/Stakeholders Constraints & Assumptions Replicate & Share Best
Service Head, Sales Head •Field technicians availability Practices
Financial benefits
• Incoming ABC Timer inventory reduction by 25 % leading to $ X save Resources
of overall inventory cost •External resources for filed tests
• Field ‘rework & part replacement’ reduction by 30 % leading to save •Reliability test labs from-5 platforms from 25th Jan to 25th
of $..Y Mar 2015
31
SIPOC Defined
1. S = Supplier(s)
2. I = Input(s) & key requirements
3. P = Process
4. O = Output(s) & key requirements
5. C = Customer(s)
32
SIPOC Diagram Defined
• A SIPOC Diagram is a visual representation of a high-level process map; including suppliers &
inputs into the process and outputs & customers of the process
• SIPOC Diagrams help a team and its sponsor(s) agree on project boundaries and scope
33
Step 3: Identify the customers receiving the outputs
Step 1
Examples Examples
Services Internal
Step 2
Products External
Reports Vendors
Metrics End users
Step 3 Raw data Management
Downstream Process
Step 4
34
Step 5: Identify the suppliers of the process inputs
Step 1
Examples Examples Examples Examples
Internal Data Services Internal
External Parts Products External
Vendors Application Step 2 Reports Vendors
Producers Raw materials Metrics End users
Management Raw data Management
Upstream Process Downstream Process
Step 3
Step 4
35
Project charter – Fill for Your Project
Financial benefits
Resources
36
5. Measurement System Analysis (MSA)
37
Reality Test……
1. Count the number of times the letter "e" appears on this page.
2. Once you have counted the number of times that "e" has been used,
write your answer on the sheet of paper provided to you by your
instructor.
3. These will be collected, and the instructor will tally the number for the
class and will show you the results.
38
Gauge R & R
Gage R&R (Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility) is the amount of measurement variation
introduced by a measurement system, which consists of the measuring instrument itself and the
individuals using the instrument.
Purpose:
39
What is Measurement System Error
40
Key Concepts
41
Accuracy & Precision
High
Accuracy
Low
High Precision Low
42
Repeatability
Repeatability
43
Reproducibility
Operator C
Operator A
Reproducibility
44
Stability
Time 1
45
Linearity
Linearity is the difference in the bias values through the expected operating range of the
gauge.
Smaller Larger
BIAS BIAS
46
Linearity (Varying Linear BIAS)
Observed Value
(No BIAS)
Reference
value
47
Acceptance Criteria
R&R DECISION
48
Gage R&R for Attribute Variables
Examples
1. Invoice checking
2. Color matching
3. Contact Lens appraisal
4. Delaminating (printing)
5. Packing parameters
49
Gage R&R for Attribute Variables
Select 20-30 product samples (include mix of “good” and “bad” parts)
Inspectors rate each part an ‘x’ number of trials, at random, without knowing the master
results
50
Gage R&R for Attribute Variables (cont.)
Next steps:
51
Action for Improvement
The appraiser needs to be better trained in how to use and read the gauge instrument.
A fixture of some sort may be needed to help the appraiser use the gauge more
consistently
52
6. Data Collection –
• sampling,
• descriptive statistics and
• probability distribution
53
Sampling Bias
1. Selection Bias
2. Environmental Bias
3. Measurement Bias
54
Types of Sampling
Probability Samples
Simple Systematic
Random Random Stratified Cluster
Non-probability Samples
55
Random Sampling
xxxx x x
xxxx x x
xxx x
Population Sample
N=2000 N=50
56
Systematic Sampling
57
Stratified Sampling
• When the population consists of mixture of more than one characteristics, each
forming a homogeneous group, Stratified sampling can assure that sample represents
the population adequately
M M M M F F
M M M F
M F
M M F
M M M M F F
M M M F
M F
M M F
58
Clustered Sampling
M M M M M M F
F F F M
M M F M F
F F M
M M M M M M F
F F F M
M M F M F
F F M
59
Sampling Exercise 1 (a)
We want to estimate the percentage of customers who get their complaints resolved
within one call.
60
Sampling Exercise – 2 (a)
We are interested in improving billing accuracy and have decided to collect a sub group sample of
30 bills processed during the day for the next four days.
2. Is there a potential to introduce bias using the plan described? If yes, how would the bias be
introduced?
61
Sampling Exercise – 2 (b)
We are interested in estimating the process potential and the process performance of a batch
process.
The process depends upon 5 critical process parameters and three raw material components
which are procured from various reliable suppliers.
62
Sampling Exercise – 3 (a)
There are three types of activities (large, medium, small) and four regions (North, South, East and
West).
The business randomly selected samples from Region West where data was readily available.
63
Sample Size
Data
n = sample size
s = standard deviation
d = precision
p = proportion defective
1.96 implies 95% Confidence
64
Types of Data
65
Exercise
Which of the following Data are Attribute?
1. No of customer complaints
2. Time to resolve Customer complaints
3. Fabric whiteness
4. Viscosity
5. Height of a Man
6. On Time Delivery
7. Quality Defect
8. No of breakdown
66
Two Measures of a Process
•Central Tendency
Mean
Median
Mode
•Dispersion
• Range
• Standard Deviation
• Percentile
• IQR (Q3-Q1)
• Standard Deviation
67
Exercise
68
Standard Deviation - Sample
N
s (X
i 1
i X - Bar ) 2
n -1
Xi – Individual Observations
X-Bar – Average of the Sample
n – Sample Size
69
Central Tendency & dispersion in large data
60 Histogram
50
40
Frequency
30
20
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Thickness of output in mm
70
Normal curve
Normal Curve is a smooth symmetrical bell shaped curve as shown below.
60
50
40
Frequency
30
20
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Thickness of output in mm
71
Normal Distribution
A random variable X with probability density function
( x )2
1
f ( x) e 2 2
for x
2
has a normal distribution with parameters , and > 0.
f(x)
72
Standard Normal Distribution
Most of the variable data that we come across in the industry follows
normal distribution with certain mean and standard deviation.
A variate ‘Z’( standardized normal variate ) is defined which has a
mean value 0 and standard deviation 1 to interpret properties of
normal distribution.
Z = (X – X ) / SD
Z is zero at mean, positive on right side of mean and negative on left side of
mean
73
Weibull Distribution
1
x ( x / )
f ( x) e , for x 0
has a Weibull distribution with scale parameters > 0 and shape parameter > 0
Applications:
• Time to failure for mechanical systems
• Time to complete a task.
74
Versatility of Weibull Model
Region
0 1
0 Time t
75
Binomial Distribution
The binomial random variable ‘X’ is the number of successes (failures) in ‘n’ trials.
n
P ( X r ) p r q n r ; r 0, 1, 2, ...., n
r
where, p probability of a success ( failure) on a sin gle trial
q 1- p
n number of trials
r number of successes (failures) in ' n' trials
n n!
r r!(n r )!
Mean np
Variance npq
76
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson random variable ‘X’ is the number of events that occur in specified period of time.
e r
P( X r ) ; r 0, 1, 2, ....
r!
where, Mean number of events during a given time
Mean
Variance
77
7. Process Stability, Capability and Performance
78
Types Of Variation
79
Causes of Variation
Common Causes
- Many small sources
- Stable
- Relatively predictable
- Permanent -unless action taken.
Special Causes
- One or few major sources
- May be irregular
- Unpredictable
- May reappear unless action taken
80
Stability
81
81
Process capability
82
Process Capability Index Cpk
USL - X-Bar
Process Capability (Cpu) =
3s
X-Bar - LSL
Process Capability (Cpl) =
3s
83
Sigma Level of a Process
The Sigma Level is Z-value that indicates how well that process is performing.
USL - X-Bar
SIGMA LEVEL (ZU) =
s
OR
X-Bar - LSL
SIGMA LEVEL (ZL) =
s
84
Example
L = 600
U = 650
Average = 625
S.D. = 10
Sigma Level (Z) =
Process Capability Ratio (Cp) =
L Mean U
85
Example
L = 600
U = 650
Average = 625
S.D. = 5
Sigma Level (Z) =
Process Capability Ratio (Cp) =
L Mean U
86
Example
L = 620
U = 630
Average = 625
S.D. = 5
Sigma Level (Z) =
Process Capability Ratio (Cp) =
L U
Mean
87
Example
L = 600
U = 650
Average = 640
S.D. = 5
Sigma Level (Z) =
Process Capability Ratio (Cp) =
L U
Mean
88
Consequence of Process Shift
1.5
A
B
A = 0.002 ppm
B = 3.4 ppm
89
1.5 Sigma Process Shift
-1,5 +1,5
90
Defects per Million Opportunities Sigma
1 3,17,400 6,97,700
2 45,400 3,08,537
3 2,700 66,807
4 63 6,201
5 0.57 233
6 0.002 3.4
91
Critical to Quality – Examples (Sigma Level of Attribute Characteristics)
92
Develop Operational Definition
Purpose:
Removes ambiguity
Identifies what to Measure
Identifies how to measure it
Identify Source of data
93
Operational Definition - Example
On time departure
An airline wants to measure its on-time-departure efficiency. They have chosen the
unit of measurement as ’each flight’
Before they go any further, they want to arrive at the operation definition of on-
time-departure
An on-time departure is one in which the plane leaves the parking on scheduled
departure time
Any flight not leaving the parking on scheduled departure time would be a ‘defect’
94
Definitions
Defect (D)
Anything that results in customer dissatisfaction.
Anything that results in a non-conformance,
In the figure below, four products are made; filled dot indicates a defect.
95
Formula
96
Defects per Million Opportunities Sigma
DPMO
1,000,000 DPMO Z Level *
66.810 3,00
100,000
38.950 3,25
22.750 3,50
10,000 11.870 3,75
6.210 4,00
1,000 2.890 4,25
1.350 4,50
560 4,75
100 5,00
233
86 5,25
10 32 5,50
10,5 5,75
3,4 6,00
1
2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5
Sigma
97
8. Process Mapping and Funneling
98
Process Mapping
Should describe :
99
Process Mapping Steps
Value adding
Non value adding
Value adding steps:
• Something the customer would be willing to pay for
• Transforms the product or service
• Done right the first time and all the time
100
Process Map – key components
• Flow through the process. • Sequential steps that convert inputs into
• Are Added value to. outputs.
• Get converted into outputs. • Special attention to value adding steps.
Resources Outputs
101
Identifying Product and Process Parameters
Brainstorming
Literature review Remember the 5 M’s
Operators manuals Man (People)
Work Instructions
Machine (Equipment)
Operator experience
Method (Procedures)
Customer / supplier input
Material
Engineering knowledge
Scientific theory Measurement
102
Process Flow
103
Process Mapping – Example - Manufacturing
104
Understand and Manage the Inputs & good outputs will follow!
Maintain
Correct in Specifications
KPIV
KPIV
PROCESS KPOV CTQ
KPIV
105
What Are We Measuring?
X’s _________
Inputs ?
x’s _________ ?
Process Parameters
106
Funneling
All ‘X’ s 30
Categorisation
Counter Measures/Actions 8
107
Funneling (Application of Tools)
Data Characterization
Brainstorming &
Partitioning
FMEA
x1 x7 = 38%
x2 x6 = 27% Vital X’s
x3 x2 = 12%
x4
x5 Exploration x9 = 4%
x6 of the y-x x10= 4%
x7 relationship x5 = 2%
x8 x1
x9 x3
Trivial X’s σ error
x10 x4
x11 x8 = 13%
x12 x11
x12
Fishbone
108
Key to Selection of Tools (X & Y Relationship)
109
9. Value Stream Mapping
110
Lean Principles
C. Establish Flow
The continuous movement
E. Work to Perfection
of products, services and
The complete elimination of information from end to end
waste so all activities create through the process
value for the customer
D. Implement Pull
Nothing is done by the
upstream process until
the downstream customer
signals the need
111
Future State Planning
Vision
Process
112
SECAR
113
SCAMPER
Can it be used by people other than those it was originally intended for?
How would people with different disabilities use it?
P Put to Other Uses Are there new ways to use it in its current shape or form?
Can I use this idea in other markets or industries?
114
Why - Value Stream Mapping
115
Create Value Stream - Commonly Used Symbols
116
Value Stream Map – As Is
Process Control
Customer
Customer
240000 applications pa
Weekly Schedule TaKt time =
9/900 hrs
= 36 sec
240000 per
year Weekly download 10% applications Mail to
on Monday for QC customer
90% applications 4600 per wk
120 sec 0.13 sec 60 sec 6 sec Process time ~186 sec
Lead time =15.5 days , Process cycle efficiency = 186 sec/15.5 days = 0.04%
117
Types of Activities in The Process
Examples:
Value-added work
• Originating a Policy
Steps that are essential because they
• Servicing a Customer
physically change the product/service, the
• Effecting a Payment on-time
customer is willing to pay for them and
are done right the first time
• Documenting a transaction
Value Enabling work • Moving files from one place to another
Steps that are not essential to the customer, • Waiting in queue
but allow the value-adding tasks to be done
better/faster or are regulatory required
118
Analyse the Process
Use the VSM to direct your improvement efforts. Some questions you might ask as you
examine the map include:
• Where are the longest cycle times? Are they value-added steps? If not, can you eliminate or
moderate them to save time?
• What type of non-value added steps dominate your process? Inspection? Signature
loops? Delays? How much time in your process do they account for? Can you eliminate or
moderate them to save time?
• What amount of time in your process comes from value-enabling steps? Challenge the
value – enabling aspect of these steps. Ask yourself if there is any value to eliminating these
steps if you could. If the answer is yes, then look for ways to persuade others to eliminate this
step without causing problems in the process
119
Value Stream Map Analysis (Cont’d)
Takt time
Time (in min)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Task
120
Value Stream Map – Future State
Process Control
Customer
Customer
240000 applications pa
TaKT time = 9/900 hrs
= 36 sec
120 sec 0.13 sec 60 sec 6 sec Process time ~186 sec
Lead time =1.5 days , Process cycle efficiency = 186 sec/1.5days = 0.43%
121
Implement the Future State through Action Workout
What?
• Focused intense Team effort to accelerate Process improvements using Lean Principles
• Get all Stake holder’s participation. Get buy-in before the AWO
• Full time Action at the Floor. Turn ON your “Out of Office message “
122
Summary
123
10. Simple Graphical tools
124
Overview on 7 QC tools
The term “7 tools for QC” is named after the 7 tools of the famous warrior, Benkei. Benkei owned 7
weapons, which he used to win all his battles. Similarly, from my own experience, you will find that
you will be able to solve 95% of the problems around you if you wisely use the 7 tools of QC.”
- Ishikawa
The 7 QC Tools are proven scientific management tools, which are basic and easy to understand.
They form the fundamental foundation for all problem solving and quality control activities.
Benefits-
• Provide Training in Thinking
• Raise People’s problems Solving Confidence
• Increase People’s ability to predict future Events
125
What is 7 QC Tools
The Seven Basic Tools of Quality is a designation given to a fixed set of graphical techniques
identified as being most helpful in troubleshooting issues related to quality.
They are called basic because they are suitable for people with little formal training in statistics and
because they can be used to solve the vast majority of quality-related issues
7 Basic Tools
1. Check sheet
2. Pareto Chart
3. Cause & Effect Diagram
4. Control Chart
5. Histogram
6. Scatter Diagram
7. Stratification or Flow chart
126
Check Sheet
The function of a check sheet is to present information in an efficient, graphical format. This may be
accomplished with a simple listing of items. However, the utility of the check sheet may be significantly
enhanced, in some instances, by incorporating a depiction of the system under analysis into the form.
• Pareto charts are extremely useful because they can be used to identify those factors that have
the greatest cumulative effect on the system, and thus screen out the less significant factors in an
analysis. Ideally, this allows the user to focus attention on a few important factors in a process.
• The Pareto Principal is generally used to prioritize quality improvement projects to get most
returns for the resources invested.
• It is one of the most powerful tools and is widely used as means of attacking bulk of the
problems with the optimal utilization of resources
• The basic principle of Pareto is “80% of any effect are due to 20% of causes & vice versa”
128
Example for Pareto Diagram
97 100
87
100
140 90
120 70 80
70
No. of complaints
100
Cum. percentage
50 60 Pareto Analysis of Passenger
80 50 Complaints at an Airport
60 40
26
40 30
20
20 10
0 0
s e e d s s
m g ic un re er
b le g ga er
v
ef F a
ot
h
o a S R
t Pr B
h
F lig 94.6 100 100
87.5
50 90
76.8
80
40 70
No. of complaints 60.7
Pareto Analysis of
Cum Percentage
60
Customer Complaints
30
41.7 50
40
20
30
10 20
10
0 0
Fish not Vegetable Bread Cashier Meat not Eggs
fresh wilted Stale Rude Fresh rotten
129
Example for Pareto Diagram
200 93 98 100 100
180 85 90
160 75 80
140 70
60 Pareto Analysis of Complaints at
No. of complaints
120 60
a Laundry
100 50
80 35 40
60 30
40 20
20 10
0 0
Late Missing Fading Stains Creased Buttons Stretched
delivery or wrong colours Missing or torn
250 92.8 95.2 100 100
items 89.2
84 90
77.2
200 80
150 60
30
50 20
10
0 0
Bubbles Rough finish Scratches Damaged Weak Cracks Stains Others
packaging corners
130
Cause & effect diagram
This diagram, also called an Ishikawa diagram (or fish bone diagram), is used to associate multiple
possible causes with a single effect. Thus, given a particular effect, the diagram is constructed to
identify and organize possible causes for it.
Statement of
Problem
131
Example for Cause & Effect Diagram
Spark plugs
Impatience Heavy Contacts
Poor Bad Life
Craze
anticipation attitude
Body Technical
Wrong Poor details
skill Shap
Always gears Fuel mix
e
late Lack of Inexperience High H.P Carburetor
awareness Wrong
Riding on culture Engine
clutch
Cylinders High Petrol
Spurious Consumption
Crossings
Spares Impurities
Restrictions Traffic Incorrect
One way
No turn Tyres Inferior Octane no.
Frequen Petrol
Faulty
Circuitous t Negligence pressure
Road Speed Breakers
stops Additives
Ignorance
Potholes Irregular Incorrect viscosity
Low pressure
Poor servicing
Clogged
conditio Oil
False filters
n
Stee econom Not changed
p y Low level
Road Maintenance Materials
132
Control Charts
The control chart is the fundamental tool of statistical process control, as it indicates the range of
variability that is built into a system (known as common cause variation). Thus, it helps determine
whether or not a process is operating consistently or if a special cause has occurred to change the
process mean or variance. The bounds of the control chart are marked by upper and lower control
limits
133
Histograms
134
Shapes of Histogram
135
Scatter Diagrams
Scatter diagrams are graphical tools that attempt to depict the influence that one variable has on
another. A common diagram of this type usually displays points representing the observed value of
one variable corresponding to the value of another variable.
136
Flow Charts
• Flowcharts are pictorial representations of a process. By breaking the process down into its
constituent steps, flowcharts can be useful in identifying where errors are likely to be found in the
system.
137
Multi-vari Chart
138
139
Box Plot
Durability
The Box Plot of the data 15.0
13.52
shown here. What do we 12.5
12.895
conclude?
10.0
8.625
7.5
5.0
1 2 3 4
Carpet
141
11. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
142
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
Window of Consideration
Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss
of of of of of
Nail Shoe Horse Rider Battle
Cause Failure Mode Effect
143
Failure Mode Effect Analysis
Definition of FMEA
Identify and evaluate potential failure modes and causes associated with product and
process design
Identify actions that will eliminate or minimize the Risk associated with potential
product and process design failures
Document the processes of due care and problem closure to positively define what the
design must do to satisfy the customer
Be a tool for building and refining - not simply completed then tossed
144
Risk Priority Number (RPN)
145
Current Control and Recommend
CURRENT CONTROLS :
The mechanisms that prevent or detect the failure mode before it reaches the customer. Current
controls include SPC, Inspections, Monitoring, Training, Preventive Maintenance.
RECOMMENDED ACTION :
Corrective actions to reduce occurrence, and / or Detection rankings. Directed at the highest RPN
and critical severity items.
146
FMEA through Cause & Effect Diagram
147
FMEA worksheet
Using your Process Map, enter the process steps in the Process Function (Step) column
Process function Potential failure Potential failure S Potential causes of O Current process D R
(step) modes (process effects (Y’s) E failure (X’s) C control E P
defects) V C T N
148
The Rating Scale
Use the following guide line for assigning ratings to Severity, Occurrence and Detection
Scores. Occurrence scores can be assigned based on probability or time period.
9 Be illegal Once every 3-4 days 30% Occasional units are checked for defect
Units are systematically sampled and
8 Render product or service unfit for use Once per week 5% inspected
Cause extreme customer
7 dissatisfaction Once per month 1% All units are manually inspected
Units are manually inspected with
6 Result in partial malfunction Once every 3 months .03% mistake-proofing modifications
Cause a loss of performance which is Process is monitored (SPC) and
5 likely to result in a complaint Once every 6 months 1 Per 10,000 manually inspected
SPC is used with an immediate reaction
4 Cause minor performance loss Once per year 6 Per 100,000 to out-of-control conditions
Cause a minor nuisance, but can be SPC as above with 100% inspection
3 overcome with no performance loss Once every 1-3 years 6 Per Million surrounding out -of-control conditions
Be unnoticed and have only minor
2 effect on performance Once every 3-6 years 3 Per 10 Million All units are automatically inspected
Be unnoticed and not affect the Defect is obvious and can be kept from
1 performance Once every 6-100 years 2 Per Billion affecting the customer
149
FMEA Action Guide
150
11. Test of Hypothesis (TOH)
151
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing Aims determining if the observed differences between two or more data
samples are due to random chance or is true differences in the samples
152
Hypothesis Testing Terms?
Population
Random sample
Statistical Significance
Degrees of Freedom
Tabulated Value
Probability (p-Value)
153
Concept Of Hypothesis
Collected After
Collected in Before
B
3. How can we differentiate
between sample–based
“chance” variation and
a true process
difference?
154
Concept Of Hypothesis
The justice system can be used to illustrate the concept of hypothesis testing
We assume innocence until proven guilty - This corresponds to the null hypothesis
This corresponds to rejecting the null hypothesis and accepting the alternate hypothesis
155
Errors And Correct Decision In Hypothesis Testing
Truth is
Verdict is:
“Not Guilty”(HO) Type 2 Error (or) error :
Good Decision
Guilty is declared innocent
156
The P Value
P is the probability of getting the observed difference or greater when the Ho is true.
The convention is to use the P value of 0.05, which represent 5% Error in rejecting
Ho when it is true
P<a : Reject Ho
P>a : Accept Ho
157
Types Of Change Options
Cross-selling
Bigger or H0: Mean Target
higher is Highest amount Profitability HA: Mean > Target
better H0: Mean A Mean B
Biggest payback Customer
(One-sided) HA: Mean A > Mean B
retention
158
Pitfalls In Hypothesis Testing
159
Steps In Conducting A Hypothesis Test
Step 1:
Problem question
Alternative Hypothesis
Specify the improvement
goals. And direction (>, <, ≠)
Step 2: Baseline
Specify the standard of comparison, Null Hypothesis
benchmarks, means/Std Dev.
160
Types Of Hypothesis
161
Exercise - Test on means of Normal Distribution
A petroleum company will soon have to switch a large proportion of its production from
a formulation containing tetra-ethyl lead to a lead-free formulation. An important quality
characteristic of gasoline is the road octane number. If gasoline with a road octane
number that is too low for the engine compression is used, excessive knocking will
result. The company has formulated the lead-free product so that its road octane
number should be identical to that of the older, lead-containing product. An experiment
is performed in which 10 observations on road octane number are obtained for each
product formulation. These data are given in the following table. Do these data prove
that lead-free formulation is superior to that of formulation containing tetra-ethyl lead?
162
Formulation-1
(containing tetra-ethyl Formulation-2
lead) (containing no lead)
89.5 92.5
90 91.5
91 91
91.5 91
92.5 91.5
91 92
89 92
89.5 90.5
91 90
92 91
163
Two-Sample T-Test and CI: F1, F2
Two-sample T for F1 vs F2
164
Chi Square Test Of Independence
Row
Count Dislike Like
totals
Ho : No difference between respondent groups Men 17 24 41
Ha : One of the respondent groups likes/dislikes
the new product Women 19 63 82
Children 37 68 105
Column
73 155 228
total
165
Chi Square Test Of Independence
A company wants to
understand if customer Monsoon SummerRow
Zone Season Season Total
complaints from various
South
zones have any zone 17 24 41
association with the West
extreme wet and dry Zone 19 63 82
season of the year. N&E
Analyze the data given in zone 37 68 105
table and draw Column
Total 73 155 228
conclusions?
166
Chi-Square Pitfalls
Large data sets often result in significant Chi-Square tests, even though practically there is
little difference between the proportions.
Similarly use of the chi-square test should be questioned if 20% or more of the cells have an
expected count less than five, especially if these cells give a large contribution to the total chi-
square value.
Simple Chi-Square does only two variables at a time. More variables can be added, but the
interpretation becomes more advanced (Need to use Fit Model)
Stratification is a method to break up the table. But there may not be sufficient data for some
of the categories
167
12. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
168
Analysis Of Variance ( ANOVA)
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is extension of TOH when there are more than two
levels for X OR Impact of multiple Xs is to be studied simultaneously on a given Y
Ho : 1 2 . . . n
Ha : at least one not equal
169
Example:
• Diet is the input variable (factor); blood clotting time is the output variable (response).
• The diets were assigned to the animals randomly. Blood samples were taken and tested in a random
sequence. Why?
170
Performing ANOVA in Minitab
171
ANOVA Table
The ANOVA table is an important result of ANOVA If the p-value is less than 5%,
there is a difference in the
One-Way Analysis of Variance mean value of at least one
group. In this case we reject
Analysis of Variance on Coag Time the null hypothesis indicating
that the mean values of all
Source DF SS MS F P groups are equal. The mean
Diet 3 228.00 76.00 13.57 0.000 value of at least one diet is
different from the others.
Error 20 112.00 5.60
An F-test of this magnitude
Total 23 340.00 may also occur randomly, but
only at a frequency of 1 per
10,000 occasions.
The F-test is near 1.00 when the
group mean values are similar.
In this case the F-test is much
higher.
172
Main Effects Plots
We use the main effect plot to display our results. It is displayed only if there is a significant
difference.
Minitab: Stat > ANOVA > Main Effects Plot...
Caution:
68
line is without
67
warranty
66
Coagtime
65
64
63
62
61
1 2 3 4
Diet
173
TWO WAY ANOVA
LIFE OF LINING(
SUPPLIER AVG. LOAD Hrs)
Company has identified
A H 270
two factors i.e. supplier
and average load on A H 240
furnace to study their A L 250
impact on life of brick A L 260
lining. Data is given in B H 180
Table.
B H 230
175
TWO WAY ANOVA
Interaction Plot - Data Means for LIFE OF LINI
SUPPLIER
A
B
280
C
260
Mean
240
220
200
H L
AVG. LOAD
176
13. Correlation and Regression
177
Correlation and Regression - Objective
To ascertain how changes in the input variable affect the performance variable
178
Correlation and Regression
Regression tells us how to draw the straight line described by the correlation
179
Correlation (r): The Strength of the Relationship
Note: If the slope b1 = 0, then r = 0. Otherwise there is no relationship between the slope value b1 and
the correlation value, r.
Y Y Y
X X X
Strong Positive Correlation Moderate Positive Correlation No Correlation
r = .95 r = .70 r = .006
R2 = 90% R2 = 49% R2 = .0036%
Y Y Y
X X X
Strong Negative Correlation Moderate Negative Correlation Other Pattern -
r = -.90 r = -.73 No Linear Correlation
R2 = 81% R2 = 53% r = -.29
R2 = 8%
180
Simple correlation coefficient (r)
no relation
181
Application of Regression Analysis
Y 3. Predict Y from X
1
Change
in Y
Change in X 2
Y0
Predict
3 Y0 at X0
X0 x x+1 x
Observations
182
How Would You Approach This Situation?
You work for a company that produces premium ice cream. You are participating on a team that is
trying to reduce the number of under-filled pint cartons. The filling machine has a weigh cell which
keeps track of the amount of ice cream flowing through the barrel. If the computer controller
determines the amount is too low, a command is sent to the feed screw motor to increase the rpm of
the feed screw. If the amount is too high, a command is sent to reduce the rpm of the feed screw. You
suspect that the computer controller is not targeted appropriately and is the source of the under-filled
cartons. If you could discover the relationship between the feed screw rpm and the weight of the filled
cartons, you could use it to change the controller program and reduce the number of under-filled
cartons.
183
Practice: Use the Regression Equation
Y (output)
Question 1:
What is the value of intercept ?
Question 2:
What is the value of Slope?
8
7
Question 3:
What is the meaning of Intercept?
6
Question 4:
What is the meaning of Slope?
5 Question 5:
What is the predicted weight when
4
X is 27, 23 and 33 rpm
3
Question 6: How comfortable are you with predictions?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (input)
184
Multiple regression
Multiple regression is to compare the relationship between a continuous dependent (Y) variable and several
continuous independent (X1, X2, …) variables e.g. relationship between production cycle time (Y) with Number of
equipment setups (X1), booking price (X2) , number of custom features (X3) and number of unique labels (X4)
k
Yi j X ij i
j 1
185
Multi-Collinearity
• One of the assumption of model accuracy is that X’s are not correlated.
186
Dealing with multi-collinearity - Example
VIF > 5
VIF is greater than 5, means that the regression coefficients are poorly estimated. We should consider the options
to break up the multi-collinearity: collecting additional data, deleting predictors, using different predictors, or an
alternative to least square regression
187
Dealing with multi-collinearity –Corrective Action
Correlation between Film Density & tensile strength is 0.914 and p value is 0.000 and between Air pressure and Vacuum
pressure is - 0.921 and p value is 0.000 .
It is easier to control Film density and Air pressure. Hence we remove Tensile Strength and Vacuum pressure form predictor an
carried out the analysis. The result is shown below.
VIF is lesser than 5, means that the regression coefficients are properly estimated. We now say the model is okay with respec
to multi-collinearity. Here also p value of Airbubble, MoldTemp & DwelTime is high. We can do further analysis by removing
them from the model.
188
14. Improvement Planning
189
Improvement cycle
Select solutions
Analyze result
• Communication matrix
190
Selection techniques
• Brainstorming
• Ranking method
• Rating method
• Decision Matrix
191
Idea Selection
192
Criteria based solution selection
Each team member to tick the best criteria for each solution
Sum up number of tick, multiply by respective weights and cal the score for each criteria
for each solution
193
Pugh matrix
194
Risk Impact Matrix
195
Approaches to Avoid Pitfalls
196
15. Process Standardization
197
Why should we standardize a process ?
• Standardization ensures process stability and only when process is stable can you begin the
creative progression of Continuous improvement
• Standardization is an ongoing activity ensuring that problems are identified, effective solutions
are devised and processes are streamlined using best possible method agreed by all
stakeholders
• Standardization creates a foundation for a learning organization ( unless you standardize the
processes are too random and chaotic. It is difficult to measure improvement of a chaotic
process)
198
Why should we standardize a process ?
Input
Output
People Work Task Quality
Machine
Cost
Material
Delivery
Method
“Standardization means using the process that’s safest, easiest , most Cost-effective and
productive for the company to assure quality for the Customer”
The secret of single-piece flow is to reduce the variation in the working cycle. The Reduction in working cycle
variation can be achieved by standardizing work. Always Perform the operations in the same sequence
199
Standard Work
• When normal and abnormal work activities 1. Each person understands his / her task.
are undifferentiated, waste almost inevitably 2. All tools and equipment are at arms length
occurs. 3. Standard work has been practiced to perfection
4. Observation and analysis drives continuous
• Standard Work provides an efficient
improvement
framework in which to determine when an
abnormality has occurred so that it can be Types of Waste Eliminated
addressed. 1. Searching
2. Finding
• Elements of Standard work 3. Selecting
4. Transporting
Takt Time processing 5. Waiting
Standard work sequence
Standard Handoffs
200
Process standardization in a unit-cost focused organization
To calculate standard
hours and cost
To compare employee
performance per std
201
Process standardization in a Lean Organization
Eliminate Waste
To improve Process
capability
To detect abnormalities
202
Standardized Work and Work Standards
Standardized work
Work Standards
• Safety standards
Use analysis tools to • Quality standards
study current process • Environment standards
Process Standards
Identify waste and • Cycle time
eliminate waste
• Temperature/Pressure
• Specification of product
Arrive at the basic
method Procedures
• Kanban rules
• SWIP
Work (job) instruction • TPS methods
training
Skilled employees
203
16. Control Plan & Control Chart
204
Objectives
See how standardization fits into the strategy for process improvement.
205
Different ways to implement time-monitored changes
206
Establish Permanency of Actions
207
Control Plan
208
Control Plan
Date : 15/04/2015
209
Control Charts
A Control chart is a time ordered plot of the data with control limits.
Control limits identify the expected range of variation of the data.
Control charts identify the presence of special cause of variation within a process.
210
Use of Control Chart
211
A Process is Said to be Out of Control if…
212
Source : Pocket Guide
Specification Vs Control Limits
Specification limits
Set by the customer, management, or regulators
Describe what you want a process to achieve
Control limits
Calculated from the data : +/- 3 standard deviation from mean.
Describe what the process is capable of achieving
213
Capability Vs Stability
214
Advantages and Disadvantages of Control Charts
• Advantages
Is a proven technique for improving productivity
Is effective in defect prevention
Prevents unnecessary process adjustments
Provides diagnostic information
Provides information about process capability
Can be used for both attribute and variable data types
• Disadvantages
Everyone must be WELL trained and periodically retrained
Data must be gathered correctly
Mean and range/standard deviation must be calculated correctly
Data must be charted correctly
Charts must be analysed correctly
Reactions to patterns in charts must be appropriate— Treating a Special cause as a Common
cause and treating a common cause of variation as a special cause of variation.
215
Select Appropriate Control Chart
Select Measurement
Variable/Continuous Attribute/Discrete
Data Type?
Yes Subgrou No
p size =1 Defectives Defective Defects
? s or
Defects ?
Constan Constant
t sample sample
Subgrou Yes size? size?
p size Yes
<10?
Yes
No No
216
17. Mistake Proofing
217
Objectives of Training
218
How do I change the process and keep it in control forever?
Operational Method
Written Instructions
Verbal Instructions
(Mistake Proofing)
Sheets (OMS)
Poka - Yoke
DFSS
SPC
AMOUNT OF CONTROL
219
What is Mistake Proofing?
220
Principles for Mistake Proofing
Take over repetitive tasks or actions that depend on constantly being alert (vigilance)
or memory
Free a worker’s time and mind to pursue more creative and value-added activities
221
Why do Errors Occur?
Incorrect procedures
Human error
Inadequate Skill
222
Categories of Errors
ERRORS
Intended Unintended
Action Action
Basic Error Types
Attention failures
Rule-based mistakes • Intrusion
• Misapplication of good rule • Omission
• Application of bad rule • Reversal
Knowledge-based mistakes • Mis-ordering
• Many variable forms • Mis-timing
Routine violations Memory failures
Exceptional violations • Omitting planned items
Acts of sabotage • Place-losing
• Forgetting intentions
223
Detecting Errors
Traditional approach . . .
FEEDBACK
224
Mistake Proofing Techniques
225
Types of Sensors
226
Shutdown: Prevention & Detection
Prevention:
Some cameras will not function when there isn’t enough light to take a picture
Detection:
Some laundry dryers have a device that shuts them down when overheating is detected.
Prediction:
Many cars have warning systems to alert the driver that not all seatbelts have been fastened.
Detection:
Smoke detectors provide a warning that smoke has been detected and that there’s a possible fire.
227
Error Proofing Process
1
Redesign to eliminate
the possibility of error
or
2
Redesign to make it Review design for error
obvious that an error potential with
will occur Manufacturing and
or Assembly
3
Redesign to make it
obvious that an error
has occurred
228
Error Proofing Process
1
Redesign to eliminate
the possibility of error
or
2
Redesign to make it Review design for error
obvious that an error potential with
will occur Manufacturing and
or Assembly
3
Redesign to make it
obvious that an error
has occurred
229
18. Managing Change
230
Stages of Change
Contentment Renewal
Provide a Vision Leverage Enthusiasm
Paint a Picture Keep Them Involved
Raise Awareness
Denial Confusion
Listen to Views Provide a Plan
Focus on Process Pilot and Deploy
Gather Data Follow Methodology
231
Finally,
Do you believe that LSS can make you smarter
in addressing changes you will be expected to
bring in your area of responsibility?
232
Wish You All The Best
Thank You
233