Syrian Conflict (2011-)

Syria has a special status in the future of the Middle East – this is a major conclusion that all
the scientists agree. There are some reasons for this opinion: Syria is the solution of the Iraq
question, the conclusion of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the repression of radical religious
violence. When looking at Syria’s political influence in the Arab world, its importance in shaping the
Arab world can be clearly seen. The demise of the Baathist regime in Iraq increases Syria’s
predominance on Arab nationalism. Syria can be taken as a miniature of Middle East with its
numerous ethnic and religious groups1.

In Syria, over the past seven years took lives of hundreds thousand Syrians and cost
unbearable suffering of millions of Syrians both inside and outside the country. This armed conflict
began with anti-government protests before escalating into a full-scale civil war. More than 11
million citizens have been forced to leave their homes as forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad
and those opposed to his rule battle each other - as well as jihadist militants from so-called Islamic
State.
In Syria, the politics are relatively conservative and reflect the interest of a relatively small
group of entrenched interests that often find an accommodation with the outside power that now
comes to dominate the area. The other thing, as you can see on this map Syria’s sects and religions
are concentrated in a specific geographical area. So, there are living: Muslims (Sunni), Alawites 2,
Christian Arabs, Druzes3, Ismailis, Kurds, Armenians.
The entities created do not correspond to linguistic, ethnic, or any other conceivable way of
defining a nation. We find here areas that are inhabited by different ethnic and religious groups, not
necessarily linguistic groups. The linguistic difference only plays a little role; they all are Arabic
speakers, but they have different religions, and they have different ethnic belongings4.

1
Sedat Laciner, Mehmet Ozcan, Ihsan Bal, op.cit., p. 59
2
Alawites are the most oppressed and recalcitrant of Syria’s Arab minorities, who were destinated to have a dramatic
effect on postcolonial Syria. The term means „follower of Ali”, the martyred son-in-law of Mohammed; the resemblance
to the Shi’ítes constitutes the least of their heresies in the eyes of Syria’s majority Sunni Arabs; but also, the Alawite
doctrine has affinities with Phoenician paganism and Christianity (Robert D. Kaplan, Syria: Identity Crisis, in The
Atlantic, February, 1993, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/02/syria-identity-crisis/303860/).
3
The Druze are defining themselves as the oldest Arabs; their religion is a syncretism between Islam and Christianity;
today, there are living in the south part of Syria (Sever Noran, Syria. Drumuri de legenda, Editura Sport-Turism,
Bucuresti, 1980, p. 219).
4
Robert D. Kaplan, op.cit.
 Map no 13: Syria – ethnic and linguistic groups (March 2011)
(***, Syria. Atlas Republic of Austria, Ministery of the Interior, 2015, p. 14)

An ideological solution to Syria's contradictions began to emerge. Ba'athism 5 was started by

two Syrian Arabs, one Christian and one Muslim. The movement appealed to a brand of patriotism
both radical and secular, and sought to replace religion with socialism. In 1963 the Ba'ath Party
finally came to power in Damascus in a military coup. But more significant than its ideology was the
ethnic makeup of the corps of officers now in control: the Alawites had, without anyone's noticing,
gradually taken over the military from within. Though Alawites constituted just 12 percent of the
Syrian population, they now dominated the corps of young officers. The coup of 1970, which
brought an Alawite air-force officer, Hafez al-Assad, to power, was what finally ended the instability
that had reigned in Syria since the advent of independence6.
Historical evidence suggests that the Assad era, like the rule of communists in Eastern
Europe, is more a historical intermission than an indication of enduring national unity 7. For sure is in
the 70s, Syria was seen as a progressive country, with a lot of tourist who used to come for
inestimable historical monuments8.
Violent protests descent into civil war
Pro-democracy protests erupted in March 2011 in the southern city of Deraa after the arrest
and torture of some teenagers who painted revolutionary slogans on a school wall. After security
forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing several, more took to the streets.

5
From Ba'ath, Arabic for "renaissance".
6
Robert D. Kaplan, op.cit.
7
Ibidem
8
Sever Noran, op.cit., passim
 The unrest triggered nationwide protests demanding President Assad's resignation. The
government's use of force to crush the dissent merely hardened the protesters' resolve. By July 2011,
hundreds of thousands were taking to the streets across the country9.
Opposition supporters eventually began to take up arms, first to defend themselves and later
to expel security forces from their local areas.
Violence escalated and the country descended into civil war as rebel brigades were formed to
battle government forces for control of cities, towns and the countryside. Fighting reached the capital
Damascus and second city of Aleppo in 2012. By June 2013, the UN said 90,000 people had been
killed in the conflict. By August 2015, that figure had climbed to 250,00010.
The conflict is now more than just a battle between those for or against Bashar Assad. It has
acquired sectarian overtones, pitching the country's Sunni majority against the Alawite sect and
drawn in regional and world powers. The rise of the jihadist group Islamic State (IS) has added a
further dimension.
According to Zaidon Alzoabi, an opposition activist, “The regime holds part of the
responsibility for the sectarian incitement. They took the Alawites as human shields and gave them
the impression that the revolution is against them,” he added. “But the bigger amount of incitement
that happened on both sides is to be blamed on the media side, Addounia, Aljazeera, and Alarabiya.
They are playing a dirty role in this.”. Another Syrian official said, on the basis of anonymity, “We
can’t live together anymore, hatred is much more than we can bear.”11
A very sad thing is that in this conflict chemical weapons were used. Hundreds of people
were killed in August 2013 after rockets filled with the nerve agent sarin were fired at several
suburbs of Damascus. Western powers said it could only have been carried out by Syria's
government, but the government blamed rebel forces.
Facing the prospect of US military intervention, President Assad agreed to the complete
removal and destruction of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal. The operation was completed the
following year, but the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has
continued to document the use of toxic chemicals in the conflict. Investigators found chlorine was
used "systematically and repeatedly" in deadly attacks on rebel-held areas between April and July
2014. IS has also been accused of using homemade chemical weapons, including sulphur mustard12.

9
Salam Kawakibi, The Syrian Crisis and its Repercurssion: Internally Displased Persons and Refugees, MPC Research
Report 2013/03, p. 2-3 (http://syrianrefugees.eu/?page_id=513)
10
***, “Syria: The Story of the Conflict”, BBC News, 11 March, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-
26116868
11
Ali Hashem, „Syria’s Alawites under Siege”, Al Monitor. The Pulse of the Middle East, 2013, http://www.al-
monitor.com/pulse/ar/originals/2013/01/alawites-syria-siege-sunni-druze.html#ixzz4C1s08OWt
12
Syria: The Story of the Conflict…
 The armed rebellion has evolved significantly since its inception. Secular moderates are now
outnumbered by Islamists and jihadists, whose brutal tactics have caused global outrage.
So-called Islamic State has capitalised on the chaos and taken control of large swathes of
Syria and Iraq, where it proclaimed the creation of a "caliphate" in June 2014. Its many foreign
fighters are involved in a "war within a war" in Syria, battling rebels and rival jihadists from the al-
Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, as well as government and Kurdish forces.
In September 2014, a US-led coalition launched air strikes inside Syria in an effort to
"degrade and ultimately destroy" IS. But the coalition has avoided attacks that might benefit Mr
Assad's forces. Russia began an air campaign targeting "terrorists" in Syria a year later, but
opposition activists say its strikes have mostly killed Western-backed rebels and civilians.
In the political arena, opposition groups are also deeply divided, with rival alliances battling
for supremacy. The most prominent is the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and
Opposition Forces, backed by several Western and Gulf Arab states. However, the exile group has
little influence on the ground in Syria and its primacy is rejected by many opponents of Assad13.

Map no 14: Air strikes in Iraq and Syria

(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868)

The situation in Syria very serious, if we take into consideration that Russians and Syrian
plains fired in a hospital killing medical personal and patients. A surviving radiologist told that the
hospital was attacked 15 times since 2011; the staff sees that place as a “ticking time bomb”. They
are living a permanent risk: “we don’t know when a bomb will explode and kill as all”. Syria became
13
Ibidem
the deadliest place in the world for doctors and nurses; more than 700 medical workers have been
killed since the start of the conflict in 201114.

3.2.The consequences of the Syrian conflict

A UN commission of inquiry has evidence that all parties to the conflict have committed war
crimes - including murder, torture, rape and enforced disappearances. They have also been accused
of using civilian suffering - such as blocking access to food, water and health services through sieges
- as a method of war.
The UN Security Council has demanded all parties end the indiscriminate use of weapons in
populated areas, but civilians continue to die. Many have been killed by barrel bombs dropped by
government aircraft on gatherings in rebel-held areas - attacks which the UN says may constitute
massacres.
IS has also been accused by the UN of waging a campaign of terror. It has inflicted severe
punishments on those who transgress or refuse to accept its rules, including hundreds of public
executions and amputations. Its fighters have also carried out mass killings of rival armed groups,
members of the security forces and religious minorities, and beheaded hostages, including several
Westerners15.
In Aleppo, an estimated 300,000 remain and “live in constant fear aver next attack from the
air, including from barrel bombs”16. Planes landing in Damascus, the oldest city in history, are
carrying political mediators or war reporters17.
The results of the Syrian conflict are showed by satellite image analysis by Unitar-Unosat, an
agency of the United Nations; these images reveal the vast devastation in cities across Syria from the
civil war. So that the situation to be more clear, they are presented images before and during the
conflict; hereunder, we see an example of the city Deir al-Zour, where the Islamic State holds most
of the city18

14
Colum Lynch, “Across the Middle East, Doctors Are Being Killed Like Never Before”, Foreign Policy, March 2, 2016
(http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/02/across-the-middle-east-doctors-are-being-killed-like-never-before/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints)
15
Syria: The Story of the Conflict…
16
John Hudson, Colum Lynch, “After Weeks of Bloodletting, U.S. Reaches Deal on Cease-fire in Aleppo”, in Foreign
Policy, May 4, 2016 (http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/04/u-s-and-russia-forge-deal-on-ceasefire-in-aleppo/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks)
17
Ali Hashem, op.cit.
18
Sergio Pecana, Jeremy White, “From Syria, an Atlas of a Country in Ruins”, in The New York Times, March 16, 2016,
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/12/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-damage-maps.html?
action=click&contentCollection=Middle
%20East&region=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined
&pgtype=Multimedia
 Photos no 10 and 11: Deir al Zour in June 2010 and in April 2014 – whole city blocks were devastated
(http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/12/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-damage-maps.html?
action=click&contentCollection=Middle
%20East&region=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined
&pgtype=Multimedia)

Photos no 10 and 11: Aleppo in Nov. 2010 and in Oct. 2014 – Entire buildings were leveled
(http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/02/12/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-damage-maps.html?
action=click&contentCollection=Middle
%20East&region=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined
&pgtype=Multimedia)

So, more than 4.5 million people have fled Syria since the start of the conflict, most of them
women and children. A further 6.5 million people are internally displaced inside Syria, 1.2 million
were driven from their homes in 2015 alone19.
Political science says Syria’s civil war will probably last at least another decade. The
researchers show that the average civil war was 10 year; but this situation becomes more
complicated, because civil wars are longer and bloodier than average when foreign powers intervene;
also, civil wars with lots of factions last longer than average. The conclusions are very surprising if
we look at the neighboring countries; Lebanon had a civil war, also with sectarian divisions and

19
Syria: The Story of the Conflict…
foreign interventions that lasted more than 15 years. Afghanistan had its 1980s war followed by
another civil war in the 1990s between the victorious rebel groups20.

Photo no13: Syrian children at a playground last week at a refugee camp in Zaatari, Jordan. Many speak of
exacting revenge on the Alawites when they get back home
(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/in-syrian-conflict-children-speak-of-revenge-against-
alawites.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)

Another aspect important to mention is the way that future generation will develop in this war
context. Ibtisam, 11 years old, a child in the desert refugee camp from Zaatari, Jordan says: “I hate
the Alawites and the Shiites,” and crowd of children and adults nodd in agreement. “We are going to
kill them with our knives, just like they killed us.” The children’s refusal to share a playground or a
classroom with Alawites dramatizes the challenge of ever putting together a political solution to the
conflict. And the easy talk of blood and killing from such young children illustrates the psychic toll
that the revolt and repression are taking on the next generation of Syrians21

International humanitarian crisis – Syrian refugees

The armed repression of the revolution and the militarisation of the resistance have
contributed to a massive exodus from targeted towns. This exodus has taken several forms,
depending on the resources of the victims. Thousands of civilians living in the border regions sought
refuge in Turkey, Jordan, Libya and Iraq. We have also seen the departure of thousands upon
thousands of individuals towards Cyprus from along the Syrian coast. These first refugees came from
the regions most affected by the massive bombing and the arbitrary incursions of loyalist forces. In
fact, millions of people were obliged to leave of their district or town22.
20
Max Fisher, ”Political Science Says Syria’s Civil War Will Probably Last at Least Another Decade”, in The Washington
Post, October 23, 2013
21
David D. Kirkpatrick, “Syrian Children Offer Glimpse of a Future of Reprisals”, in The New York Times, September 3,
2012 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/in-syrian-conflict-children-speak-of-revenge-against-
alawites.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
22
Salam Kawakibi, op. cit., p. 2
 As a consequence of the Syrian conflict, the Syrian refugees problem became a huge
humanitarian crisis.
Millions of people have fled Syria since the start of the conflict, most of them women and
children. Neighbouring Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have struggled to cope with one of the largest
refugee exoduses in recent history. According to the UN Refugee Agency, in the middle of May, 4,8
milions of refugees were registered in these neighboring countries23. About 10% of Syrian refugees
have sought safety in Europe, sowing political divisions as countries argue over sharing the burden.

Graphic no 3: Registered Syirian Refugees – Cumulative flows (monthly data)

(http://www.migrationpolicycentre.eu/migrant-crisis/focus-on-syrians/)
A further 6.5 million people are internally displaced inside Syria, 1.2 million were driven
from their homes in 2015 alone. The UN says it will need $3.2bn to help the 13.5 million people,
including 6 million children, who will require some form of humanitarian assistance inside Syria in
2016. About 70% of the population is without access to adequate drinking water, one in three people
are unable to meet their basic food needs, and more than 2 million children are out of school, and
four out of five people live in poverty24.
The warring parties have compounded the problems by refusing humanitarian agencies access
to civilians in need. Up to 4.5 million people in Syria live in hard-to-reach areas, including nearly
400,000 people in 15 besieged locations who do not have access to life-saving aid25.
Given the extreme violence worked against the civil population, which have seen the
destruction of houses and food and water provisions, today there are three forms of interior
displacement: Families that have been able to find accommodation with friends or relatives; also,
there are families that have free or paid individual accommodation. These lodgings are often
unsanitary. It is common to find several families living together. Other families who are living out of
23
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php
24
“Syria: The Story of the Conflict”…
25
Ibidem
schools and public buildings. It is important to note that many families have been displaced several
times26.
The crisis created by the Syrian problem is in attention to the entire world. For example, the
International Syria Support Group (ISSG), organized at New York P on the 18 th of December 2015 a
meeting, which was a follow up to the Group’s from the14th of November meeting in Vienna. This
reunion brought together foreign ministers of sixteen member states, as well as heads of the United
Nations, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, European Union and League of Arab States in order to
discuss the way to launching of political dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition
and to end the ongoing bloodshed in Syria27.
The OIC Secretary General, Iyad Ameen Madani, appealed to the international community to
put aside all calculations other than “humanitarian spirit” and “human dignity” in dealing with the
Syrian refugee crisis. In his appeal, the Secretary General said: “The Syrian refugees who drowned in
the Mediterranean, or suffocated in a human trafficker’s truck in Austria, none of them are
responsible for starting the Syrian crisis or for the failure to stop it. Yet, they are and continue to be
the direct victims of both that crisis as well as the failure of the international community, particularly
of the Members of the UN Security Council, and the countries of the region, to find a solution to it.
This must not, and cannot continue to be so”. OIC has been following, from the beginning and with
deep concern the aggravating humanitarian crisis of the Syrian refugees who are fleeing their homes
in search of asylum in neighboring countries28.

26
Salam Kawakibi, op.cit., p. 5
27
“OIC Secretary General Participates”…
28
http://www.oic-oci.org/oicv3/topic/?t_id=10430&ref=4117&lan=en
 Map no 16: Asylum applications of Syrian citizens
(Syria. Atlas…, p. 19)

Peace efforts

With neither side able to inflict a decisive defeat on the other, the international community
long ago concluded that only a political solution could end the conflict in Syria. The UN Security
Council has called for the implementation of the 2012 Geneva Communique, which envisages a
transitional governing body with full executive powers "formed on the basis of mutual consent".
Talks in early 2014, known as Geneva II, broke down after only two rounds, with then-UN
special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi blaming the Syrian government's refusal to discuss opposition
demands. Mr Brahimi's successor, Staffan de Mistura, focused on establishing a series of local
ceasefires. His plan for a "freeze zone" in Aleppo was rejected, but a three-year siege of the Homs
suburb of al-Wair was successfully brought to an end in December 2015. At the same time, the
conflict with IS lent fresh impetus to the search for a political solution in Syria. The US and Russia
led efforts to…29.
But the truth is that it is not easy to make peace in conditions that a lot of forces and states are
involved; who will be first to ceasefire? Iran and Russia have propped up the Alawite-led
government of President Assad and gradually increased their support. Tehran is believed to be
spending billions of dollars a year to bolster Assad, providing military advisers and subsidised

29
„Syria: The Story of the Conflict”…
weapons, as well as lines of credit and oil transfers. Russia launched an air campaign against Mr
Assad's opponents.
Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO underlined that the Syrian ceasefire remains the
best possible basis for renewing efforts to reach a negotiated, peaceful solution to the crisis in Syria.
He added that NATO remains concerned by the Russian military build-up in Syria and the eastern
Mediterranean: “Russia’s military activity in the region has fueled the humanitarian crisis and driven
more people to Turkey’s borders. It has also caused violations of NATO airspace.”30
The Syrian government has also enjoyed the support of Lebanon's Shia Islamist Hezbollah
movement, whose fighters have provided important battlefield support since 2013.
The Sunni-dominated opposition has, meanwhile, attracted varying degrees of support from
its international backers - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, along with the US, UK and
France. And each of them has their own interests in the region. For example, United States considers
themselves to be a “source of stability in the region” and admit that “no American president will ever
leave the Middle East”31.

Turkish forces launched an offensive against Kurdish troops in the north,

Israel clashed with Iranian and Syrian forces on the country’s southwestern border
and President Bashar al-Assad of Syria unleashed a brutal assault on the rebel
enclave of East Ghouta.
As international players scramble to influence the war, a mix of them –
Iranian, Turkish, Russian, American, Israeli and others – are fighting in different
parts of Syria. The complexity of the war’s alliances helps explain why it may
continue for years32.

30
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_128855.htm?selectedLocale=en
31
Ray Takeyh, “America Will Regret Abandoning the Middle East”, in Foreign Policy, May 3, 2016
(http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/03/america-will-regret-abandoning-the-middle-east/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints)
32
Ben Hubbard, Jugal K. Patel, „Why Is the Syrian Civil War Still Ranging?” in New York Times, Feb. 8, 2018
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/08/world/middleeast/war-in-syria-maps.html)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da3i0o6U8AA9hv5.jpg:large)