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• What?
Multiple failure modes are the different ways the same
item can fail.
• Because failure times for different failure modes tend to
follow different distributions, it is usually best to classify
failure data into modes and analyze each mode
separately.
• When to use?
When one observes sharp curves in a probability plot.
This is an indication that multiple failure modes exist.
Why Use Multiple Failure Modes
Example:
• Should I focus improvement efforts on electrical or
mechanical components of a DVD player in order to
increase its B5 life?
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
• 500 units of mobile phones were followed in the field
for 300 hours of usage. Failure times and the failure
modes were obtained for the failed units. At the end of
the 300 hours of operation 124 units were still
functional (no failure).
• Failure times and the modes are given in
“Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw”
Minitab Activity
Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
• An additional column C3 “Failure
Mode Code” is created. We will use
this numeric column for failure modes
in analysis.
• C2 column is not used in analysis as
the there is no corresponding failure
mode to the censored data point.
Censored times need to have “*” in
C3 column (numeric column). For text
column, censored times need to have
a blank cell.
• Formatting of data like this is critical
or Minitab will shown error later.
• Example of error: “Maximum
likelihood estimates could not be
calculated for these data. There must
be at least one distinct plot point on a
probability plot for each (estimated
parameter - 1) and at least one
censored observation.”
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
Assuming
Distribution ID
Plots are
assessed here
Class Activity – Multiple Failure Modes
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
Results – Individual Probability Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
• If all the individual probability plots look good, examine the combined probability plot.
• If any of the distributions do not fit the data well, return to the Parametric Distribution
Analysis dialog box and choose a new distribution for the ill-fitting failure modes
Multiple Distributions Probability Plot
When all failure modes are
combined, Minitab displays
the resulting distribution of
the system on a Weibull
probability plot.
• The Weibull distribution may not always fit the data well. Instead of falling in a straight
line, one may have a curve in the data due to more than one mode of failure. The
sharper the curves (aka “Doglegs”) means more than one cause of failures.
• Gentle curves may indicate that the origin of the time scale is not zero. A part may have
already experienced some use before the failure time clock starts.
• A concave downward curve may indicate that the distribution of data is really lognormal.
Distribution Analysis
For our failure data, a Weibull
distribution is chosen based on
Maximum Likelihood
Estimation Method to model all
failure modes 1 to 5.
The parameters that define the
best-fitting distributions are
shown in the precious Weibull
probability plots for all failure
modes
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
Survivor Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
Cumulative Failure Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
Cumulative Failure Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
Hazard Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
11 Audio
Audio
22 Charging
Charging
33 Keypad
Keypad
44 Power
Power Up
Up
Hazard Plots
Failure
Failure Description
Description
Mode
Mode
55 SW
SW
• The hazard function provides the likelihood of failure as a function of how long a unit has
lasted (the instantaneous failure rate at a particular time, t). The hazard plot shows the
trend in the failure rate over time.
• The multiple distributions hazard function plot here indicates the failure rate is increasing:
phone units are more likely to fail as they age. An increasing hazard typically happens in
the later stages of a product's life, as in wear-out.
Results – Multiple Failure Modes
Summarized parameter estimates from all failure modes:
Failure Failure Scale Shape
Mode Mode Parameter Parameter
Analysis of the Description Code β α
multiple failure
modes are critical
Audio 1 814.213 1.20752
to rank/prioritize
which failure modes Charging 2 623.526 1.13689
to fix in order to
improve overall Keypad 3 2580.46 1.42878
product reliability,
this is called Power Up 4 719.711 0.869112
“competing causes”
SW 5 920.308 1.52559
• Failure modes with lowest shape parameters are 2 (Charging) and 4 (Power up)
• Failure modes with highest scale parameters are 3 (Keypad) and 5 (SW)
Results – Multiple Failure Modes
Minitab Activity
Weibull-CDF.XLS
Results – Multiple Failure Modes
Weibull parameter
estimates obtained
from Minitab results
output
This is the
Weibull
Cumulative
Distribution
Function
F(t)
beta
⎛ Time ⎞
Failure Probability (Modes ) = 1 − exp⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ alpha ⎠
Cumulative Distribution Function Plot
This is plotted
in Excel
template using
the Weibull
Distribution
Function
Question:
• If we eliminate the failure modes 2 (Charging)
and 4 (Power up), how much improvement
can be made on the product reliability?
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes
Minitab Activity
Competing_Causes_Demo.mtw
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes
Failures Modes 2 and 4 are eliminated hence does not show up.
Analysis with Exclusion of Failure Modes
Percent
Percent
10 10 10 10
5 5
3 3
2 2
1 1
0.1 0.1
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 1 10 100 1000
Hrs Hrs