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Consulting Group

609 Locust Ave_


Conway, AR 72034

Ted Thomas Keith Em;s

On July 27-29, 2010 Diamond State Consulting Group conducted a random sample
survey using automated telephone calls. 1,242 randomly selected registered voters
who identified themselves as likely to vote in the November election were polled
regarding the election of the Secretary of State in Arkansas. The margin of error is
plus or minus 3 percent at confidence level of 95 percent. This means that if the
survey were conducted 100 rimes, the responses obtained in those surveys would be
within plus or minus three percent of the results reported here 95 per cent of the
time. The congressional elections were also polled. The margin of error in the
congressional races is plus or minus 5.9%.

The results of the survey are as follows:

Ballot Test
Secretary of State I Women Men LTotal I
~;~~
Unsure ,
+_ __~;17.1% 8.6% I
l~_::~ :
13_0% i
;~:~~ :
Results are weighted so that S2% of the electorate '5 female and 12% '5 African-
American.

Generic Ballot
l secret;y~'---f'---St'---a-te==-I W0'11en _-1----'M=en'-'-----__ 1 Total 1

Republican 46:6% J 58.8%_,1_ ---51~6% 1


I Democratic _ - - I 40.8% J28.5% 1 3"'5"'.9% I
I Unsure I
~:==-:=----------,-----,--~
12.S% I 12.6% I 12.4% I
"
Results are weighted so that 52% of the electorate is female and 12% is African-
American.
1
Fav/Unfav

I Secretary of State J Favorable Unfavorable! Unsure I


i Martin J 13.6% 1_ _ 5.::-6~:.::~+I_ _--=8:.::0::..7.:.:%c:1
I--'O:..·.::8::.ri:::en~ -:::.27:.::.:..9%:.::1_ 10.6% I 61.4% i

Voter Interest
Level of Interest ~Ma~li~- I O'Brien --J Unsur.::e,-_ _
~!highest) 4S.4% ~.9~ 11.6% I
2 39.2% 37.2% 1----=-2:::3.-=-5'\O"'-!
I3 53.2% I 24.7% I 22.0% I
I4 33.3% ! 44.4% I 22.2% I
I 5 (lowest) 32.8% I" 37.3% I 29.8~·

I COOl t women-r~ : Total J


! C_ausey I 39.6%i __36.8% ! 38.3% I
l.~dler 1.8% 2.6% I 2.2% I
walden 4.8% 2.6% I 3:8%'
Crawford t . 36.6% 51.3% I 43.6%
RUnsure 17.0% 6.6% I
---- 12.0%
Results are weighted so that 52% of the electorate is female and 15% is African-American.

; CD02 i Women §n : Total]


Suits 2.1% I 5.5% j 3.7% I
..Elliott _ _~.~% ~ _ _27.5~ 33.4%
I Kennedy 1.1% I ?3% I 1.7%
Griffin 51.9% 59.8% I 55.7%
Unsure 5.9% , 4.7~ I
5.4%
Results are weighted so that 52% of the electorate is female and 15% is African-American.

I(003
rwt;;"taker
Women I Men
25.8% I
I Total
20.8% I - 23.4%
I
Womack 59.7% I 66~~
~ure 14.4% I 12.8% I~
Results are weighted so that 52% of the electorate is female and 3% is African-American.

2
I CD04 T Women I Men I Total I
I Rankin -t---28.3%1 __40.4%1 __34.0%
DROraskse
I~=
- ------ +
4-!
--- - 6.:~' - - - 1,95'O_! - 545.·40~
56.1% 53.8%' '"
I Unsure I 8.9% I 3.8% 6.5%
Results are weighted so that 52% of the electorate is female and 15% is African-American.

Observations:

1. Both candidates for Secretary of state are relatively unknown, although the
advantage that unknown Democrats typically enjoy against unknown Republicans
does not exist in 2010. O'Brien does have higher name ID because of his
participation in a contested primary and runoff earlier this year.

2. The toxic political environment for Democrats is spreading to state races in a way
that is unprecedented in Arkansas political history.

3. The entire survey questionnaire appears on the following page. There were no
"push" questions in the survey, which are often used to bias survey results.
Questions were asked in the order that is presented in the questionnaire.

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We want to know your opinion. Please stay on the line for a public opinion poll that will take less than
two minutes to complete.

Ql. How likely are you to vote in the general election that will be held this November? If very likely,
press one. If probably, press two. If you are not likely to vote in the upcoming election, press three.

Q2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being very interested and 5 being not interested at all, what is your level
of interest in the upcoming election in Arkansas? Press 1 if you are very interested, press 5 if you are
not interested, and please press 2, 3 or 4 if your level of interest is between 1 and 5.

Q3. If the election for Secretary of State was being held today for whom would you vote, the Republican
candidate or the Democratic candidate? If you would vote for the Republican candidate, press 1. If you
would vote for the Democratic candidate, press 2. If you are unsure as to whom you would vote for,
press 3.

Q4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Martin? If favorable, press one. If
unfavorable, press two. If you are not sure or have not heard of Mark Martin, press three.

Q5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of County Clerk Pat O'Brien? If favorable, press one.
If unfavorable, press two. If you are not sure or have not heard of County Clerk Pat O'Brien, press three.

Q6. If the election for Secretary of State was being held today for whom would you vote, the
Republican candidate Mark Martin, the Democratic candidate County Clerk Pat O'Brien? If you would
vote for Mark Martin, press 1. If you would vote for County Clerk Pat O'Brien, press 2. If you are unsure
as to whom you would vote for, press 3.

Q7. (CDOl only) If the election for US Congress was being held today for whom would you vote, the
Republican candidate Rick Crawford, the Democratic candidate Chad Causey, the Green Party candidate
Ken Adler, or the independent candidate, Richard Walden? If you would vote for Rick Crawford, press 1.
If you would vote for Chad Causey, press 2. If you would vote for Ken Adler, press 3. If you would vote
for Richard Walden, press 4. If you are unsure as to whom you would vote for, press 5.

Q7. (CD02 only) If the election for US Congress was being held today for whom would you vote, the
Republican candidate Tim Griffin, the Democratic candidate Joyce Elliott, the Green Party candidate
Lewis Kennedy or the independent candidate, Danial Suits? If you would vote for Tim Griffin, press 1. If
you wouid vote for Joyce Elliott, press 2. If you would vote for Lewis Kennedy, press 3. If you would
vote for Danial Suits, press 4. If you are unsure as to whom you would vote for, press 5.

Q7. (CD03 only) If the election for US Congress was being held today for whom would you vote, the
Republican candidate Mayor Steve Womack, orthe Democratic candidate David Whitaker? If you would
vote for Mayor Steve Womack, press 1. If you would vote for David Whitaker, press 2. If you are unsure
as to whom you would vote for, press 3.

Q7. (CD04 only) If the election for US Congress was being held today for whom would you vote, the
Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin, the Democratic candidate Mike Ross, or the Green Party
candidate Josh Drake? If you would vote for Beth Anne Rankin, press 1. If you would vote for Mike
Ross, press 2. If you would vote for Josh Drake, press 3. If you are unsure as to whom you would vote
for, press 4.

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08. What issue do you view as the most important issue facing our state? Jobs and the economy,
spending and taxes, illegal immigration, health care, abortion and family values or education? If jobs
and the economy, press one. If spending and taxes, press two. If illegal immigration, press three. If
health care, press four. If abortion and family values, press five. If education, press six. If you are
unsure or an issue not listed is most important to you, press seven.

09. For statistical purposes only, if you are white, press one, if you are black, press two, if you are
Hispanic, press three if other, press four.

010. For statistical purposes only, if you are female, press one, if you are male, press two.

Thank you for participating in our survey.

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