A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation

August 2015
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Tackling Europe’s Immigration Tradeoffs

Who 3D Prints What in 2033?
Europe is experiencing worrying demographic trends. With fertility rates lagging at 1.6 births per woman, the European
Union’s healthcare systems and welfare states could ultimately become unaffordable without an influx of young migrants.
The immigration of low-skill workers from Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa has
also helped prop up large industries like agriculture, construction and manufacturing. These industries might not be
globally competitive without the downward pressure of immigration on wages – a fact of which governments are aware.

On the other hand, European governments must cope with rising anti-immigrant sentiment, especially among working-
class and conservative constituents who associate the business-friendly attributes of a liberal immigration regime with
the expectation of strained welfare resources and a deep-seated fear of lower wages – or job loss altogether. Finding a
balance between pursuing immigration policies that are demographically and economically sensible and satisfying the
concerns of those who oppose them starts by recognizing the tradeoffs which immigration involves.

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The Preemptive Approach

Governments can try to preempt a standoff between constituencies by addressing the root concerns of businesses and
non-natives wanting liberal immigration regimes, without threatening natives who do not. In essence, governments can
give everyone less to fight about.

To varying degrees, all European governments are attempting such an approach under the guise of economic or social
policy. Right- and left-leaning parties are coming up with creative ways to deal with the side-effects of immigration (or
restriction thereof) like the shortage of workers in some industries, systemic unemployment in other areas, low native
birth rates and expensive welfare states.

In 2007, Germany amped up its pro-natalist policies and generous child subsidies in counteract demographic decline
(their 1.4 children per family falls below the replacement rate). These efforts were conducted without placing immigrants
front and center, to preclude discussion of the benefits of immigration.

France has also undertaken massive efforts with social policies like the Zones d’Education Prioritaire and the Zone
Urbaine Sensible. By targeting immigrant-heavy regions, they aim to tackle the primary conditions driving both native
and immigrant frustrations - namely unemployment, poverty and cultural isolation.

This approach cannot be overemphasized. By solving the structural issues that can lead to a conflict over immigration,
governments can completely sidestep the debate. However, these policies are also often problematic. Because of the
long-term nature of these solutions (e.g., improving birth rates through subsidies) their efficacy cannot be easily judged.
Moreover, if a debate is already raging, as is in most Western European countries, such policies are unlikely to stifle
ongoing dissatisfaction among native populations.

As such, governments must also provide short-term solutions to assuage concerns.

“Immigration Policy” Proper

These policies are often referred to as “immigration policy” proper but are in fact only band-aids for the greater issue.
No amount of restrictions on immigration will lower the demand thereof. However, restrictions are often politically
expedient, especially as many European countries see a resurgence of (specifically right-wing) populist parties.

In response to fears over Islamic extremism in British schools, Prime Minister David Cameron’s government instituted
a policy of emergency inspections and stricter oversight of education in the Muslim community, to be conducted by the
Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills.

With immigrants making up nearly 10 percent of the population in France and Germany, conservative governments in
these countries have tightened immigration regimes through stricter Temporary Foreign Worker Programs (TFWPs).
Such programs eliminate the path to permanent residence and reduce access to welfare benefits, a policy that benefits
natives and certain industries while disaffecting non-natives.

Overreliance on restrictive policies inevitably results in a pernicious cycle of frustration and policy backlash, breeding
non-native resentment and mal-integration, which in turn may push natives to lobby for even more assimilationist
practices.
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A Real Solution
European governments must pursue both strategies in tandem. As a short-term goal, policymakers can rely on issue-
specific and post-facto policies to solve emergent problems like extremism in schools and mosques, or TFWPs when
markets can no longer handle large influxes of immigrants.

However, only by recognizing these policies as patches that allow preemptive, long-term strategies to be developed
can governments solve the actual issues surrounding immigration. In the end, governments must stave off economic
stagnation and inequality while improving employment opportunities and population rates. Failure to do so is the
leading cause of low-skilled immigration – not a consequence of it.

While no panacea exists, it is important to remember that the challenge of immigration in Europe is often not immigration
itself, but the balancing of competing narratives and needs – specifically, the needs of business and the state versus
those of natives and the working class. Given the political will and some foresight, a satisfactory balance can be achieved.

ATTRIBUTIONS
[Cover photo] is a derivative of Author: “Flag of Europe by Rjd0060 is licensed under Public Domain; “Europe_countries_map_en_2” by Bobby Martnen is licensed
under CC BY-SA 3.0; “Patriotic Europeans against the Islamisation of the West”, in Dresden December 15, 2014. Photo: REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke; “Europe and
surrounding regions” by Ras67 is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
 Tackling Europe’s
Immigration Tradeoffs

Author:
Amanda Garrett

Editor:
Steve Keller
This report is based on the collaborative efforts of
50 analysts.

August 2015