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Survey of

Florida House District 115

October 2018
Methodology

Three hundred and sixteen likely voters in Florida House district 115 were interviewed
October 5-7, 2018. All interviews were conducting using landlines, cell phones, and
The Kitchens Group Voter Panel. The margin of error for this survey is a +/-5.5% with a
95% confidence level.
Favorability Ratings

I am going to read you the names of some public figures. As I read each one,
please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one.

State Representative Candidate Vance Aloupis

Very favorable 18%


Somewhat favorable 8%
Somewhat unfavorable 3%
Very unfavorable 7%
Recognize can’t rate 17%
Don’t know 47%

State Representative Aloupis receives a 26:10 rating from voters in this House district.
His positive ratings are higher among Republicans and his own supporters. A higher
percentage of Democrats, undecided voters, and voters with a high school diploma or
less tend to be less familiar with Representative Aloupis.

State Representative candidate Jeff Solomon

Very favorable 16%


Somewhat favorable 11%
Somewhat unfavorable 4%
Very unfavorable 11%
Recognize can’t rate 21%
Don’t know 37%

Jeff Solomon receives a 27:15 rating from voters in this House district. His positive
ratings are higher among younger voters, Democrats and his own supporters. He is
less familiar among undecided voters, voters with a high school diploma or less, and
Republicans.
Issue Concerns

Which of the following do you feel is the most important issue facing Florida?

economy and jobs 19%


immigration 17%
healthcare 17%
state government and taxes 2%
protecting the environment 18%
ethics in government 7%
growth and development 2%
education 12%
unsure 7%

A higher percentage of younger voters, Democrats, and voters with undergraduate


degrees are more likely to say protecting the environment is the most important issue.
Men are more likely to cite jobs and the economy and Republicans express more
concern about immigration.

Test Ballots

Would you say you prefer to be represented in the Florida Legislature by a

Democrat 45%
Republican 45%
No difference 8%
Unsure 2%

Ninety percent of the Republicans prefer a Republican and 87% of Democrats prefer a
Democratic. Among Independents, 43% prefer a Democrat and 33% prefer a
Republican.

If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for. . .

Republican Ron DeSantis 45%


Democrat Andrew Gillum? 50%
undecided 5%
refused 5%

Andrew Gillum leads the Governor’s race by 5 points. He receives the support of 90%
of the Democrats and leads among Independents by a 54% to 35% margin. DeSantis
receives support from 88% of the Republicans.

If the election for State Representative were held today, would you vote for. . .
Republican Vance Aloupis 42%
Democrat Jeff Solomon 47%
undecided 11%
refused 1%

Jeff Solomon leads in the race by a 5 point margin. He receives support from 85% of
the Democrats, and leads among Independents by a 46% to 30% margin.

Conclusions

The highly partisan nature of the electorate is very evident in this survey. The keys for
Solomon to win this race are (1) work to turnout Democrats and younger voters; (2)
continue to communicate with the independent voters. Virtually every campaign is
being driven by national politics. Therefore, the independent voters will determine the
outcome of most elections in Florida.

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