TO: Interested Parties

FROM: ALG Research

RE: National Immigration Poll Results

DATE: November 6, 2018

Since the 2016 election, the conventional wisdom in politics has been that issues
around immigration are political winners for Donald Trump and the Republicans,
but a nationwide poll of likely midterm voters casts doubt on that wisdom. Below
we address six myths about where the American people stand on
immigration:

 Myth No. 1, Trump’s immigration policies are popular: Trump’s

restrictionist immigration policies are not popular: only 26% of likely voters
believe immigrants commit more crimes than other groups; just 36%
believe that immigration levels should be decreased; 66% oppose the
administration’s family separation policy; and 54% support ending the
Trump administration’s policy of indefinite detention for asylum-seekers.

 Myth No. 2, voters oppose immigration policies that would benefit

immigrant communities: Immigration reform, including many key aspects
of the 2013 Gang of Eight bill, are very popular: 67% support
comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship; 67% support
allowing undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as
children to stay in the U.S.; 61% support allowing the non-citizen parents
and siblings of American citizens a faster path to obtaining legal status in
the U.S.; and 52% believe it should be easier to apply for asylum in the
U.S.

 Myth No. 3, voters trust Trump and the Republicans, more than the
Democrats, on immigration: Voters are split on who they trust more to
deal with immigration, 38% trust Trump and the GOP and 38% trust the
Democrats. In spite of having spent the last three years attempting to own
the issue, Trump has ended up with trust on immigration (38%) even lower

ALG conducted a nationally representative online survey of N=1,200 likely 2018 general election
voters, October 24-29, 2018. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. Because
the survey was conducted online, all respondents have Internet access and took the survey
through a computer, tablet, or smartphone.
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than his favorable rating (40%). Importantly, college educated white

women – the swing demographic driving Democrats’ hopes of winning the
House – trust Democrats by net +14 points (45% Democrats / 31%
Trump).

 Myth No 4, Immigration is driving voters to support the GOP:

Democrats and Republicans are almost equally likely to say Trump’s
immigration policies are a very important factor in their voters, with 52% of
Democrats and 58% of Republicans citing it as a very important factor. In
other words, Trump’s rhetoric may inflame elements of his base, but it also
inflames Democrats.

 Myth No. 5, Trump and the Republicans have raised the importance
of immigration for midterm voters: Detaining immigrant families at the
border (29% top priority) and finding/deporting undocumented workers
(32% top priority) are at the absolute bottom of voter’s funding priorities.
46% think border security should be a top funding priority. Voters are
much more concerned about funding Social Security and Medicare (77%),
education (61%), the military (54%) and infrastructure (51%).
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 Myth No. 6, that Trump’s rhetoric on immigration is stronger than

Democratic responses does not bear out: when faced with a choice
between a Trump/Republican argument on immigration and a
Democratic/progressive one, Trump’s side has no real clear advantage.
Even as Trump has staked his closing message in the midterms on
immigration restrictionism and the caravan, these issues are not clear
winners for him.

Below is a statement Donald Trump and his allies might say about
immigration, as well as one that some of his opponents might say All Likely
about immigration. Please select which statement comes closest to Voters
your view:
[TRUMP - ATTACK DEMS] Democrats want to turn America into
one big fat sanctuary city for criminal aliens. A vote for any Democrat
in November is a vote to eliminate immigration enforcement, throw
open our borders, and set loose vicious predators and violent 35
criminals. They will be all over our communities; they will prey on our
communities.

VS.

[DEM RESPONSE – COMPLICIT ] Donald Trump and the

Republicans have separated thousands of kids from their parents,
and Republicans in Congress even voted to allow the government to 48
detain them indefinitely. We cannot trust people who have hurt
children to reform our immigration laws in a way that reflects our
values.

There are clear preferences for Democratic responses to Trump’s divisive

language around immigration, as well as a revulsion at much of Trump’s anti-
immigrant rhetoric. Ultimately, whipping up anti-immigrant sentiment is
unlikely to be the political panacea for which Trump and the Republicans
are hoping.
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