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House Democrats ascendant, set to check Trump's power

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 0623 GMT (1423 HKT) November 7, 2018

2018 Elections Primary Clean path
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FullscreenNow Playing Pelosi: Tomorrow will be...

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) waves to the crowd at a campaign rally in
Houston, Texas, U.S., October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Republicans keep Senate with Ted Cruz win

Van Jones: It's a rainbow wave

Tapper: This is not a blue wave
UNITED STATES - AUGUST 17: Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., is interviewed
at Boneshaker Coffee in Bismarck, N.D., on August 17, 2018. Cramer is
running against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., for the North Dakota Senate
seat.
CNN projection: Cramer defeats Heitkamp
Rep. Marsha Blackburn speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on
January 24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.
CNN projection: Blackburn elected to US Senate

Arizona's Senate race in a dead heat 'til the end

Democrats' Senate hopes may hang on Missouri

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20: U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate
Jacky Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union
Hall Local 226 featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20,
2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada
begins today. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Nevada offers a rare chance for Democrats
2018 Elections Primary Clean pathNOW PLAYING
Pelosi: Tomorrow will be a new day in America
Ilhan Omar, a candidate for State Representative for District 60B in
Minnesota, gives an acceptance speech on election night, November 8, 2016 in
Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Omar, a refugee from Somalia, is the first Somali-American Muslim woman
to hold public office. / AFP / STEPHEN MATUREN (Photo credit should
read STEPHEN MATUREN/AFP/Getty Images)
She'll be one of the first Muslim women in Congress
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 01: New York Democratic congressional
candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at a rally calling on Sen. Jeff
Flake (R-AZ) to reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the
Supreme Court on October 1, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. Sen. Flake is
scheduled to give a talk at the Forbes 30 under 30 event in Boston after
recently calling for a one week pause in the confirmation process to give the
FBI more time to investigate sexual assault allegations. (Photo by Scott
Eisen/Getty Images)
She will be the youngest member of Congress

The Democrats who might lead the House

Gillum: Regret I couldn't bring it home

Cruz: This election was a battle of ideas

UNITED STATES - JANUARY 13: Rep. Jared Polis, D-Colo., speaks during
a House Democrats' news conference in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 13,
2015, to discuss plans to educate immigrant communities for the
implementation of the executive actions on immigration announced by
President Obama in November.
He'll be the US' first openly gay governor
The U.S. Capitol is shown in Washington on January 19, 2018.
CNN projects Democrats gain control of House
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) waves to the crowd at a campaign rally in
Houston, Texas, U.S., October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Republicans keep Senate with Ted Cruz win

Van Jones: It's a rainbow wave

Tapper: This is not a blue wave

UNITED STATES - AUGUST 17: Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., is interviewed
at Boneshaker Coffee in Bismarck, N.D., on August 17, 2018. Cramer is
running against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., for the North Dakota Senate
seat.
CNN projection: Cramer defeats Heitkamp
Rep. Marsha Blackburn speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on
January 24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.
CNN projection: Blackburn elected to US Senate

Arizona's Senate race in a dead heat 'til the end

Democrats' Senate hopes may hang on Missouri

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 20: U.S. Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate
Jacky Rosen (D-NV) speaks during a rally at the Culinary Workers Union
Hall Local 226 featuring former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on October 20,
2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Early voting for the midterm elections in Nevada
begins today. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Nevada offers a rare chance for Democrats
2018 Elections Primary Clean path
Pelosi: Tomorrow will be a new day in America
Ilhan Omar, a candidate for State Representative for District 60B in
Minnesota, gives an acceptance speech on election night, November 8, 2016 in
Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Omar, a refugee from Somalia, is the first Somali-American Muslim woman
to hold public office. / AFP / STEPHEN MATUREN (Photo credit should
read STEPHEN MATUREN/AFP/Getty Images)
She'll be one of the first Muslim women in Congress
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 01: New York Democratic congressional
candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at a rally calling on Sen. Jeff
Flake (R-AZ) to reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the
Supreme Court on October 1, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. Sen. Flake is
scheduled to give a talk at the Forbes 30 under 30 event in Boston after
recently calling for a one week pause in the confirmation process to give the
FBI more time to investigate sexual assault allegations. (Photo by Scott
Eisen/Getty Images)
She will be the youngest member of Congress

The Democrats who might lead the House

Gillum: Regret I couldn't bring it home

Cruz: This election was a battle of ideas

UNITED STATES - JANUARY 13: Rep. Jared Polis, D-Colo., speaks during
a House Democrats' news conference in the Capitol on Tuesday, Jan. 13,
2015, to discuss plans to educate immigrant communities for the
implementation of the executive actions on immigration announced by
President Obama in November.
He'll be the US' first openly gay governor
The U.S. Capitol is shown in Washington on January 19, 2018.
CNN projects Democrats gain control of House
(CNN)Democrats on Tuesday captured the House of Representatives and are
set to exert a major institutional check on President Donald Trump, while
breaking the Republican monopoly on power and ushering in a younger, more
female and more racially diverse political generation.

But the GOP solidified their Senate majority after an acerbic midterm
election that enshrined America's deep divides and shaped a highly
contentious battleground for the stirring 2020 presidential race.
The opposite trends in the House and the Senate underscored a political and
cultural gulf among diverse and affluent liberals living in big cities and their
suburbs and the mostly, white, working class and rural conservative bloc of
voters for whom Trump remains an iconic figure.
In his first reaction to a mixed night, Trump chose to celebrate Republican
successes even though the loss of the House meant his record of busting
political convention could not defy the traditional first-term midterm curse
faced by many of his predecessors.
"Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!" he tweeted.
But the new Democratic House will pose a perilous problem for the President,
who must now brace for the novel experience of oversight from Capitol Hill
with Democratic committee chairs promising constraints on his power that
the GOP never attempted.
Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker who is in position to lead again,
pledged that the new majority would work to rein in the White House as well
as to improve health care, lower the cost of drugs and protect millions of
Americans with pre-existing conditions.
"Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans. It is about restoring
the Constitution's checks and balances to the Trump administration," Pelosi
said.
Democrats could win more than 30 seats in the House, above the net gain of 23
seats that they needed to take control for the first time in eight years. But they
lost significant ground in the Senate, losing incumbents in Missouri and
Indiana and North Dakota, where Trump is still wildly popular. With several
races too close to call, the GOP advantage was expected to grow.
And liberal hearts were broken in several closely fought marquee races,
including Andrew Gillum's failure to become Florida's first African-
American governor and rising star Beto O'Rourke's failed bid to unseat Texas
Sen. Ted Cruz. O'Rourke's narrow defeat, however, proved his ability to
compete even in conservative territory and he will get buzz as a potential 2020
presidential candidate.
Democrats dare to dream again
Two years after the trauma of Trump's shock defeat of Hillary Clinton,
Democrats could dare to dream again.
They won the House, which will change hands for the third time in 12 volatile
years, by performing strongly in suburban areas where Trump's flaming
rhetoric is toxic. They also attracted a higher proportion of younger voters
than at the last midterm elections four years ago and will change the face of
Washington.
"We have the beginning of a new Democratic Party, younger, browner,
cooler, more women, more veterans, can win in Michigan, can win in
Pennsylvania, can win in Ohio," said Van Jones, a CNN political
commentator.
"It may not be a blue wave, it's a rainbow wave," he said.
One potential pitfall for Democrats will be to hold Trump to account without
being seen as overreaching. After all, some presidents, including Bill Clinton
and Barack Obama, had tough midterm elections but leveraged attacks by
Capitol Hill foes to help them win re-election. Trump, who loves nothing more
than to identify new enemies, will be a formidable opponent.
Within minutes of their victory being confirmed, other Democrats were
already threatening to go after Trump and to probe his business interests,
including his tax returns.
Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler, who is slated to steer the House Judiciary
Committee, warned that the election was about accountability for Trump.
"He's going to learn that he's not above the law," Nadler told CNN.
The race they ran

The contradictory message sent by voters on Tuesday night recalls Clinton's

win in the popular vote but defeat in the Electoral College and underlines the
split down the middle of American politics.
Republicans performed strongly in the deep red states where Trump mounted
a frenetic final campaign blitz and proved that despite his low approval rating
he remains a potent political force among conservatives.
In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, the
President had a positive approval rating over 50%, according to CNN's
preliminary exit poll data.
Keeping hold of the Senate is especially important for Trump, since it will
allow him and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell to press on with one
of his major legacy-building initiatives, restocking the federal judiciary with
conservatives.
Tuesday's Senate victory marks another triumph for the canny Kentuckian,
follow his piloting of Trump's two nominees onto the Supreme Court to
construct what could be a generational conservative majority.
Still, Trump will also have to answer for a scorched-earth campaign on
immigration in the final days that might have helped tip the House to
Democrats, even if he can argue that his magnetism helped push other
candidates, such as Rep. Ron DeSantis, who won the Florida gubernatorial
race, across the finish line.
Other Trump favorites include Marsha Blackburn, who will capture the
Tennessee Senate race, and Mike Braun, who defeated the incumbent
Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana. Trump also helped topple another
foe, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
The loss of the House spells the end of a political era for Republicans who
rode into town on a Tea Party wave whipped up by fury over Obamacare and
huge government spending in the wake of the Great Recession.
The Republican majority will leave town with Obamacare still the law of the
land and with a deficit going through the roof on the back of GOP tax cuts.
In theory, the new Democratic majority would have the capacity to initiate
impeachment proceedings against Trump, should there be sufficient grounds
uncovered in Robert Mueller's special counsel investigation. Though the
Republican gains in the Senate make it even less likely that there would be a
two-thirds majority needed to convict a president and evict him from office.
But if they take a cautious approach, Democrats could face a backlash from
their own base voters who have been electrified in opposition to Trump. In
exit polls, 77% of self-identified Democrats supported impeachment.
What is next for Trump?
Much will depend on how Trump reacts to what is undeniable a rebuke from
voters two years into a presidency that has unfolded in institutional chaos,
torn at racial and cultural divides and often trampled on truth and facts.
Given his history and personality, it seems unlikely the President will reflect
on the cultural warfare that he waged in the dying days of the campaign and
change his approach. Indeed, he may conclude that exactly that kind of
approach was behind a better-than-expected GOP performance in Senate
races.
But critics will argue that his incessant concern with bolstering the support of
his most vehement supporters and angry tirades risks deepening the damage
suffered among college-educated female voters especially, in a way that could
severely compromise his hopes of winning re-election in two years.
The President watched the results after having dinner with his family in the
residence of the White House.
He was joined by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson, Blackstone CEO
Stephen Schwarzman and the President's ex-campaign aides, David Bossie
and Corey Lewandowski, a source familiar with the guest list said.
Two other sources close to the White House said that Trump is already
blaming retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan for the loss of the House.
"He is really angry at Ryan," one source said, on "everything."
Drew Hammill, an aide to Pelosi, tweeted Tuesday evening that the President
called Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. ET "to extend his congratulations on winning a
Democratic House Majority."