NOTTINGHAM TRENT UNIVERSITY

School of Arts and Humanities

LITHUANIAN ENERGY SECURITY: CHALLENGES AND

PERSPECTIVES

by

Aiste Keselyte
N0050763
2010

This dissertation is submitted in part-fulfilment of the requirements

for the BA (Hons) in International Relations at The Nottingham Trent
University. In submitting it the author undertakes that it is
substantially the result of work undertaken exclusively for this
specific project, and that it is the result of their own endeavour
except where indicated through references and footnotes. All other
help, material or argument used, other than of the supervisory
tutor, is fully acknowledged in the text.

1
 Table of Contents

Abstract

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Introduction to the Area of Study

1.2 Research Goals

1.3 Significance of the Research

1.4 Dissertation Contents

Chapter Two: Theory and Methodology (Literature Review)

2.1. Core Questions and Aims of the Research

2.2. Theoretical Approach

2.3. Methodology

2.4. Concluding Remarks

Chapter Three: Historical Background: Price of Small

Country Energy Dependence
3.1. Problem of Energy dependence in Lithuania (dependence in
the oil sector; dependence in the gas sector;)

3.2. Russia’s Use of Energy as a Political Weapon

Chapter Four: Thoughts what to do about it

4.1. Lithuanians view on NEGP (North European Gas Pipeline) deal
between Germany and Russia – now- NSGP- Nord Strean Gas
Pipeline.

4.2. Deepening Regional Cooperation

4.3. Creation of EU Common Energy Policy

Chapter Five: Analysis – Institutions managing energy

security
5.1. Is the EU Waking Up?

5.2. US Policy

5.3. NATO (Expert study group report- Madlen Obrait report)

Chapter Six: Conclusion 1500 zodziu

6.1. Future of Lithuania’s Energy Security

2
Bibliography

Abstract

3
Acknowledgements

4
 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction to the area of study (separately paged.)

Until the 1970’s and particularly, the oil embargo in 1973 impelled
the Lithuanian Government to realize that dependency on foreign
energy suppliers may have a damaging on the national economy as
well as on Lithuanian national security in the wider context of
Foreign Affairs. Therefore the impact of global energy crises raised a
wave of academic research on economic and energy security. The
very concept of “energy security” was linked with protection of
national interests. Energy security is, at its essence, an issue of
national security. National energy security was for the most part
defined as adequate energy supply for a nation and its economy1.
Due to the power that energy-producing states have relative to
transit and consumer countries, energy security must be understood
in terms of geopolitics.

After more than 50 years of occupation, Lithuania restored its

independence on March 11, 1990. Since than, it has taken steps to
distance itself both politically and economically from Russia. It has
embraced market reforms and, in 2004, became a member of both
NATO and the EU. Yet, Lithuania remains overwhelmingly dependant
on Russia for both oil and natural gas. As Lithuania is still an
“energy island” in the EU system, Russia’s increasingly aggressive
energy policy, and dependence Lithuania’s dependence on Russia
as the only supplier of the energy sources Lithuania requires,
represents a huge energy security risk. Energy security is, at its

1
Tatyana A. Mitrova, Global Energy Security, Moscow, 2006, p.4.
http://en.g8russia.ru/agenda/nrgsafety/opinion/1.htmt [accessed 2010 07 03]

5
essence, an issue of national security.

The gas cut off to Ukraine on January 1, 2006 is often called a

“wake-up moment” for Europe. Europeans become aware of their
over-dependence on Russian gas. Since the first days of Lithuania’s
independence, energy security has been one of the most sensitive
issues of economic and political survival of the state, as owing to its
history of Soviet occupation, Lithuania’s energy infrastructure is
oriented eastward. Its main oil and gas pipelines must travel from
Russia through neighbouring Belarus before they enter Lithuania.
Lithuania is wholly dependant on Russia, as it has no pipeline
connections with the European Union.

Whilst Russia has historically been a reliable energy supplier to

Western Europe, it has often used strong-arm tactics in Eastern
Europe. Lithuania, in particular, has had direct experience with
Russia’s use of energy as a political weapon. Of all EU and NATO
members, the Republic of Lithuania, finds itself in a particularly
difficult situation with regards to energy security. It has no domestic
natural gas reserves, and its limited oil reserves are estimated at
only 1.63 million tons2. Bordering Latvia in the north, Belarus to the
south and east, and Poland and the Kaliningrad region of Russia in
the south and southwest, Lithuania relies on Russia for 90% of its oil
and 100% of its natural gas supply.

2
Zeyno Baran, white paper, p.1.

6
1.2 Research goals

This dissertation will first discuss Russia’s use of energy as a

political tool, providing the context for Lithuania’s energy
“insecurity”. It will then briefly discuss US and EU efforts to develop
policies toward improving the situation. This study will next outline
recent developments regarding Nord Stream, the Mažeikių refinery,
and the Ignalina reactor. Finally, this dissertation will concentrate on
Lithuania’s options for achieving energy security: connecting with
Europe, constructing a new nuclear plant, and accessing new
sources of oil and natural gas, including LNG.

The dissertation research goals are:

1. Describe Lithuania’s energy security dilemma.

2. To set Lithuania’s energy security in the institutional context

including EU and NATO.

3. Analyze and evaluate Lithuanian energy security.

7
1.3 Significance of the research

National security, energy security, and cooperation in the energy

sector between Russia and the West have become a-popular
subject. Lithuania has witnessed that its energy security is impaired
by not only Russian, but also their Western partners’ unfriendly
policies. Unfortunately, from back in the times of the industrial
revolution energy security has been a national matter, often much
dearer than “friendship”3. The period 2006-2007 could possibly
mark the beginning of a new stage in the development of
international relations and the international energy supply system.
On January 1, the day Russia took over the G8 presidency, Russian
state-owned gas monopoly “Gazprom” cut off gas supplies to the
Ukraine. The Ukrainian incident was only another step in former
President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to strengthen Russia’s already
strong position in the Eurasian and European energy markets. This
was a bold move given that G8’s key issue that year was energy
security. The Ukrainian incident was a “wake-up call” for many
people and Governments in Western Europe.

Today an ever-increasing role is played by threats to energy

3
Kęstutis Budrys, EU- Russia Energy Dialogue and Lithuania’s Energy Security,
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review, Iss: 18, 2006, p: 1-48, on www.ceeol.com p.1.

8
security. In recent years, this problem has become particularly
urgent in Europe because of the change in the policies of the
Russian Government. Russia’s conflicts with its nearest neighbours,
Belarus and Ukraine, over gas and oil prices, show its aspirations to
eliminate transit countries from participating in oil and gas
processing and transportation4. According to Gediminas Vitkus
Russia’s attempts to hinder, in every way possible, the
implementation of alternative pipeline projects, which circumvent
Russia, the development of a more uniform European Union energy
policy, testify that energy issues in modern Europe are becoming a
part of their new agenda5. Recognizing energy security risk, US Vice
President Dick Cheney underlined on May 4 at the 2006 Vilnius
Conference that “No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas
become tools of intimidation or blackmail, either by supply
manipulation or attempts to monopolize transportation”6.

A separate discussion could be held on the causes and the probable

consequences of such changes in the policies of the Russian
Government. However, I will not discuss this, since the primary
objective of this dissertation is not Russia, but Lithuania and its
response to the current reality. This dissertation intends to highlight
Lithuanian interests and show that Lithuanian and Western policy
makers have to come to take action against Russian political and
economic aggression, because if the virtual Russian monopoly
increases any further, then Western European countries will have
difficulty resisting Russian political and economic pressure. Bullshit

4
Gediminas Vitkus, p. 25.
5
Gediminas Vitkus p. 25.
6
Vice President’s Remarks at the 2006 Vilnius Conference, May 4, 2006, p. 6.
http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/russia/WH/20060504-1.pdf [accessed 30/07/2010]

9
1.4 Dissertation contents…… describe dissertation plan. Good
idea

At the beginning of the dissertation, a brief overview of the

significance of energy issues on the global scale will be provided. A
deeper analysis of the impact that energy issues have on Lithuanian
energy security will follow.

In order to provide a full picture of the situation under investigation

for the reader, a description of the context and origins of Lithuanian
energy dependence and insecurity in the energy sector follows.
(Where is it?)

10
 CHAPTER TWO

THEORY AND METHODOLOGY

Understanding the connection between a theoretical framework and

the research topic is a crucial aspect of any academic research. This
chapter presents the theoretical framework of the project and
describes the methods employed in the research. It explains the
techniques, concepts and tools used for collecting and analysing the
data. It also provides a concise review of how research was
conducted.

2.1. Core Questions and aims of the research

This dissertation will first discuss Russia’s use of energy as a

political tool, providing the context for Lithuania’s energy
“insecurity”. It will then briefly discuss US and EU efforts to develop

11
policies towards improving the situation. This study will next outline
recent developments regarding Nord Stream, the Mažeikių refinery, and
Ignalina reactor. Finally, this dissertation will discuss Lithuania’s options for
achieving energy security: connecting with Europe, constructing a new nuclear plant,
and accessing new sources of oil and natural gas, including LNG.

The project also aims to analyze the direction and intensity of the energy geopolitics
played between Russia, Lithuania and European Union. Utilizing an analytical
framework based on liberal institutionalist thinking, this paper seeks to uncover and
analyze Lithuania’s energy security dilemma. Moreover, this paper tries to analyze
the basic theoretical framework of liberal institutionalism and the way in which
elements of this perspective can be applied to set Lithuania’s energy security in the
institutional context including EU and NATO.

Hypothesis

Lithuania is stuck between Western Europe and Russia with all the
resulting effects on its energy security, and none of the parties are
interested in changing this situation. At present, there have been
signs of developing the measures, which could neutralise Lithuania’s
vulnerabilities in the energy sector. However, many of them are
beyond the means for a small state or even a group of states. This
dissertation states that the development of a new order enables
Lithuania to substantially improve its security status. That is based
on the theory of the formation of international regimes. This change
lies in presenting European Commission as a common focal point for
energy policy, including security.

2.2. Theoretical Approach

As mentioned on the previous page, the research has been

conducted within Liberal Institutionalist theoretical framework,
which is based on the premise that institutions are an important
mechanism of achieving international security. Its core idea consists
to demonstrate that institutions (stemming from norms and regular

12
practices) build a basis for stability and security of economic
relations. The process of legalization of international relations stems
from the juridical ideology: respect for law leads to a better
security7. Liberal Institutionalism largely operates within the Realist
framework, but argues that international institutions are much more
important in helping to achieve cooperation and stability. According
to Robert O. Ethane, a leading liberal institutionalist and Lisa L.
Martin, “institutions can provide information, reduce transaction
cost, make commitments more credible, establish focal points for
coordination and, in general, facilitate the operation of reciprocity” 8.
Liberal Institutionalist helps to overcome the problem of anarchy.
This theory is drawing on theoretical ideas developed outside
international relations to explain why anarchy inhibits collaboration
and how to promote regime formation9. According to John Baylis,
international institutions themselves are unlikely to eradicate war
from the international system but they can play a part in helping to
achieve greater cooperation between states10.

One of the main characteristics of the neo-realist approach to

international security is the belief that international institutions do
not have a very important part to play in the prevention of conflict.
Institutions are seen as being the product of state interests and the
constraints, which are imposed by the international system itself.
According to neo-realists, it is these interests and constraints, which
shape the decisions on whether to cooperate or compete rather
than institutions to which they belong11. These views have been
challenged by number of international relations specialists and
states people. For example, the British Foreign Secretary Douglas
Hurd made the case in June 1992 that institutions themselves had
7
Reader IR theories. 2.
8
Keohane and Martin, 1995: 42
9
John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owes, The Globalization of World Politics:
An Introduction to International Relations, 4ed, p. 303.
10
Baylis, p. 233.
11
Baylis, p. 232.

13
played, and continued to play, a crucial role in enhancing security,
particularly in Europe12. This view is also shared by a distinctive
group of academic writers, which developed since the 1980s and
early 1990s. These writers share a conviction that the developing
pattern of institutionalized cooperation between states opens up
unprecedented opportunities to achieve greater international
security and cooperation.

More than a decade ago, realists and neo-liberal scholars collided

over the efficiency of institutions to initiate and sustain cooperation
among states. Johns J. Meaesheimer’s article “The False Promise of
International Institutions” in 1994/95 issues of International
Security13 attempted to represent the inherent weaknesses of
institutionalist theories, particularly liberal institutionalism. He
strongly argued that institutionalist theories were defective and had
minimal influence on state behavior14. In response to Mearsheimer’s
critique, Robert O. Ethane and Lisa L. Martin claimed that
institutions mattered in the conduct of state behavior and the task
was to “discover how, and under what conditions”15. Because
according to the authors, international institutions play the main
mediating role and act as the principal means to achieve and
maintain cooperation between states, as mutual interests of the
states minimize differences, pave the avenues for cooperation16.
Liberal scholars such as Ethane17, Nye18, Axelrod19, Haas20, Levy,

12
Baylis, p. 233.
13
Johns J. Meaesheimer “The False Promise of International Institutions” in
1994/95 issues of International Security
14
Mohammed Nuruzzaman “Liberal Institutionalism and Cooperation in the Post-
9/11 World”, p. 1. Emeile detales.
15
Keohane and Martin, 1995: 40.
16
Mohammed Nuruzzaman “Liberal Institutionalism and Cooperation in the Post-
9/11 World”, p. 2. Emeile detales.
17
Keohane 1984, 1989……
18
Keohane and Nye, 2000…..
19
Axelrod and Keohane, 1985….
20
Haas, Keohane and Levy, 1993….

14
Lipson21 and Milner22 states that, states become willing to cooperate
once institutions are seen as beneficial.

There are two contending research/theoretical approaches within

political science, which identify themselves as Institutionalist today:
Rational Choice Institutionalist and Historical Institutionalist (is it
Liberal Institutionalist?). The role institutions play in these two
analytic traditions overlaps in many ways. In both schools,
institutions are important for politics because they structure political
behavior. However, theoretical, particularly, epistemological goals of
scholars in these two schools separate them in some rather
fundamental way.

Analyst Douglass North has provided a crucial contribution to

institutional analysis. According to his definition, institutions are
“the rules of a game in society or, more formally, are the humanly
devised constraints that shape human interaction”23. North suggests
that institutions provide the constraints under which decisions are
made but that individuals and organizations can alter those
constraints24. North belongs to the Rational Choice perspective of
institutional analysis, which believes that institutions are created
purely out of the goals they are attempting to reach. For Rationalist
scholars, as for a highly regarded Rational Choice Institutionalist
scholar at Harvard, Morris Fiorina the central goal is to uncover the
Laws of political behavior and action, as she believes that once
these laws are discovered, models can be constructed that will help
us understand and predict political behavior25.

21
Lipson, 1984….
22
Milner, 1992….
23
Douglass North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance:
Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions, 1990, Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, p. 3.
24
Douglass North, “North’s institutionalism and the prospect of combining
theoretical approaches”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 26, Nr. 2, p. 217-
235.
25
Morris Fiorina…..

15
Historical Institutionalist are primary interested in understanding
and explaining specific real world political outcomes. They do not
argue that institutions are the only important variables for
understanding political outcomes. Quite the contrary, these scholars
generally see institutions as intervening variables through which
battles over interest, ideas and power are fought26. According to
Steven Steimo, institutions are important both because they are the
focal points of much political activity and because they provide
incentives and constraints for political actors and thus structure that
activity. Rather than being neutral boxes in which political fights
take place, institutions actually according to the author, structure
the political struggle itself27.

Different institutions deal differently with energy security problems.

In this dissertation I will analyze European Unions (EU) and NATO
capability to deal with energy security problems facing not jus
Lithuania but Europe as well. The issue of energy security becomes
particularly important since the energy shocks of the 1970s, when
present asymmetries between the geographical distribution of
resources and energy consumers had been consolidated by oil
shortages in the petroleum-dependent countries. Since then, the
energy security has been integrated into the debates of the IR
theories. I will use liberal institutionalism theory in my dissertation. I
will argue that institutions can create peace and cooperation out of
international anarchy, and that international institutions are
important in helping to achieve grater cooperation and stability
between states.

Epistemological and ontological foundations

Knowing about ontology and epistemology is important as it helps

us be aware of the biases and limitations of our chosen research
26
Reader 3.
27
S Steimo, “The new Institutionalism” Barry Clark and Joe Foweraker (eds.) The
Encyclopedia of Democratic Thought, London: Routlege, July 2001.

16
strategies. The general epistemological viewpoint of this
dissertation is interpretive, the view that all knowledge is a matter
of interpretation. Truth is not absolute, but decided by human
judgement. It’s about understanding ‘meaning’ of action from
actor’s perspective28. Thus, one of the main objectives of this
research will be to explore the ways in which Lithuania make sense
of they world29. According to interpretivist epistemology, knowledge
is “derived from day-to-day concepts and meanings”30. The
emphasis of this epistemological approach is on understanding what
is happening in the given context, not explanation.

Interpretivist positions of the research are based on anti-

fundationalist ontology. The world is viewed as socially
constructed and cannot be accessed directly31. From this
perspective, knowledge is theoretically and discursively laden, and
therefore, value-free analysis is impossible. This ontological position
also entails the axiological attitude of the project, which adheres to
the belief that ‘knowledge is information in action’32.

2.3. Methodology

This study seeks to explore Lithuania’s energy dependence on

Russia as one of the most problematic threats for economical
security of Lithuania. Given the nature of enquiry, Qualitative
approach seems particularly appropriate for this project. Qualitative
methods deliver more in-depth understanding of the social and
political processes and are especially good in situations, which are
complex and involve a number of different issues. Moreover,
Qualitative research seeks to understand phenomena in context-
specific settings and aims to provide illumination of multiple

28
Judith L. Green and Gregory Camilli, Handbook of Complementary Methods and
Education Research, look at amazon.
29
Williams, 1996 dissertation.
30
Kirk at al… dissertation, 2006
31
Cruickshank, 2003.
32
Nordin et al 2008.

17
perspectives33.

Nonetheless, the research involves the integration of quantitative

and qualitative method tools. The information analyzed in the
dissertation is presented in both narrative and numerical/graphical
forms, as a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods can
be highly effective in making the most of the strengths of the
research. The quantitative data includes gas prices, volume of
export, expenses, maps and other relevant variables.

In order to assess energy security of Lithuania the notion has to

be precisely defined. What is energy security? Energy security is a
complex definition. President of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research
Association, Inc) – one of the most famous think-thanks in energy
politics – Daniel Yergin gives the following definition of energy
security: “the aim of energy security is to ensure adequate, reliable
energy supplies at reasonable price and so as not to jeopardize the
main national values and objectives”34. In a similar way the
European Commission and the International Energy Agency define it
as the provision of reasonably priced, reliable and environmentally
friendly energy35. The World Energy Council in 1992 defined a
national energy security as “a state of protection of individual
citizens, society, economy and nation from threats to reliable fuel
and energy supply”36.

The particular definition of energy security may depend on specific

interests of national states. There could be specified several groups
of countries, where different interpretations of energy security could

33
Hoepfl, M.C. 1997. Choosing qualitative research: A primer for technology
education researchers. Published by: Journal of Technology education 9 (1).
34
D. Yergin, “Energy Security in the 1990s”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 67, No. 1, Fall
1988, p.111.
35
Sascha Muller-Kraenner, Energy Security (London: Earthscan, 2008) p. xi.
36
Russia’s Security. Legal, Social, Economic, Scientific and Technical Aspects.
Energy Security (Energy Industry and State). Moscow: MGF Znanie, 200, p. 304.
Article molis.

18
apply. Characteristics of Lithuanian economy and energy sector,
given in Tomas Janeliūnas and Arūnas Molis article at Research Journal of
International Studies indicates that Lithuania should be put among the
countries of the first and fourth group (see table 1. Approaches to
energy security in different groups of countries). Therefore in this
dissertation we will define energy security following priorities of
Lithuanian energy security for the most part not very different from
West European countries.
Three main tasks for ensuring energy security of Lithuania:
1. Ensuring reliable energy supply and functionality of energy
infrastructure;
2. Diversification of energy supply sources;
3. Reduction of dependence on energy sources import (by
reducing energy intensity and switching to alternative or
renewable energy sources)37.
Literature review
In order to analyze and investigate Lithuanian energy security
challenges and perspectives I analyzed Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas, Dr.
Arūnas Molis, Dr. Zeyno Baran, Gediminas Vitkus, Kęstutis Burdys, Keith C. Smith,
Tom Rostoks, Arianna Checchi, Arno Behrens and Christian Egenhofer
and many other author works to be able give good Lithuanian
energy security analysis.

Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas, an associate professor at the Institute of International

Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University and the Editor of the Lithuanian
Foreign Policy Review, former States Security Department officer and analytic,
indicates that Lithuania has faced many challenges on energy security, however the
situation in the energy sector has not undergone much change. Lithuania is still rather
isolated regarding energy infrastructure. Author states that solution for this difficult
situation requires strong regional cooperation, as political initiatives are not sufficient
to initiate development in energy sector. Dr. Arūnas Molis, who’s academic interests
include EU foreign, security and defence policy, NATO transformation, political and
economic processes of the Central and Eastern European States, Russian foreign
37
Janeliunas and Molis, p. 14-15.

19
policy, energy security supports the same views as Tomas Janeliūnas on Lithuanian
energy security. According to both authors problem of Lithuanian energy security and
dependence on Russia is acute from the restoration of the independence and that this
problem is not solved yet. According to the authors the main structural changes in
Lithuania’s energy security sector could take place only if EU will consolidate its
Common Energy Policy38.

Authors state that energy dependence on Russia is one of the most problematic threats
for the economical security of Lithuania. Dr. Gediminas Vitkus, professor of
the Political Science Department at the Lithuanian Military
Academy, supports Dr. Tomas Janeliūnas and Dr. Arūnas Molis position.
Author indicates that as Lithuanian energy structure was essentially
established in the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ‘80s of the last century and this
infrastructure creates serious problems to Lithuanian energy
security. It creates gas dependence on Russia’s supply, the absence
of electricity network links with other European countries. Author
indicates that as gas sector remains completely dependant on the
Russian Gazprom’s supplies situation of Lithuanian energy security
remains unfavourable. According to the author, Lithuania cannot
solve its own energy problems without the participation of its
neighbours and the European Union39.

Kęstutis Budrys, adviser to the Lithuanian President, is not so

pessimistic about Lithuania’s energy security. Author indicates that
January of 2006 Russia’s cut off of natural gas supplies to Ukraine
was a turning point to Lithuanian energy security, as this blockade
destroyed the regime of energy relations between the Western
Europe consumption zone and the Russian production zone, which
formed a unique situation requiring the development of a new
regime that must meet the interests of Lithuania, among others40.
Author indicates that there have been signs of developing
38
Tomas janeliunas and molis, p. 31.
39
Gediminas Vitkus, Russian pipeline diplomacy, p. 46.
40
Kestutis Budrys “EU- Russia energy dialogue and Lithuanian’s
Energy security” P.46

20
measures, which could neutralise Lithuania’s vulnerabilities in the
energy sector. However, many of them are beyond the means of
small country or even a group of states. According to the author,
that not before the energy sector becomes a “normal” business
submitting only to the laws of economy will it submit to other,
geoenergetic, laws41.

Zeyno Baran, director of the Centre for Eurasian Policy and a Senior
Fellow at the Hudson Institute located in Washington D.C, interested
on issues ranging from US-Turkey relations to Islamist ideology to
energy security in Europe and Asia is one of the authors who helped
me to highlight Lithuanian energy security problems. According to
the author the lack of reliable and sustainable access to energy is a
clear threat to European security, therefore enhancing EU energy
security cooperation is essential to withstand Russian pressure42.
Author’s views contribute to Kęstutis Budrys indications on energy security
problems facing Lithuania, and that institutional helps is required.

Keith C. Smith currently a senior associate in the CSIS New

European Democracies Project, former U.S. ambassador to
Lithuania, in CSIS report “Russian Energy Politics in the Baltics,
Poland, and Ukraine: A New Stealth Imperialism?” highlights special
relationship between Russian energy companies and influential
business leaders in Central Europe, Baltic States, Poland, and
Ukraine. In his monograph author attempted to create as accurate
picture as possible of Russia’s use of its energy power and the
political and security risks that this substantial power, if unchecked,
poses for the creation of a Europe whole and free 43. Author indicates
that energy dependence in and of itself not poses a serious threat to
a country’s political or security system. The key is, according to
41
Kestutis budrys, p. 2.
42
Zeyno Baran, “EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian
Leverage”, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2007, p. 133.
43
Keith C. Smith. P. vi

21
Keith C. Smith, is to limit an energy supplier’s influence, that means,
recipient country’s ability to diversify its sources of energy
imports44. However we will see that Lithuania has difficulties in
doing so, as Lithuania become locked into a Moscow- direct energy
supply network during the 70 years of the Soviet Union’s existence.

Toms Rostoks concentrates on regional energy security problems,

and helps to identify that EU that wields considerable potential for
improving energy security of the member states, among them and
Lithuania45. In his the article based on the results of the research
project “Energy: pulling the Baltic Sea region together or apart?”
carried out by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA)
author also indicates that security and business interests may cause
friction in the energy debate, as security interests force
governments to be more influential in the energy sphere while
commercial interests point in the opposite direction and suggests
that energy sphere should be not become the battle ground
between national governments and should instead be left to
business interests. Toms Rostoks aims to outline the main reasons
that facilitate and those that hamper energy cooperation thus
pushing countries toward finding individual solutions to their energy
problems46.

2.4. Concluding remarks

Most of the current literature on Lithuania’s energy security focuses

on Lithuania’s energy dependence on Russia. Authors indicate that
Lithuania has faced many challenges on energy security, and the
situation in the energy sector has not much change. Lithuania is still
rather isolated regarding energy infrastructure. As a result of this,
many commentators tend to exaggerate Russia’s ability to use oil
and gas as “weapons” to augment Russian influence over its

44
Keith Smith, p. 27.
45
Toms Rostoks, 150.
46
Tom Rostoks, p. 144.

22
neighbors and on the world state.

The findings of the literature review also indicate that regional

cooperation and EU could change current unfavorable energy
security situation in Lithuania. As enhancing EU energy security
cooperation is essential to withstand Russian pressure, not just in
Europe, but in Lithuania as well.

CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION: In Pursuit of Energy Security

CONCLUSIONS: FURURE OF LITHUANIA’S ENERGY SECURITY

The Lithuanian energy infrastructure was essentially established in

the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ‘80s of the last century. This infrastructure was
meant to serve the interests of the Soviet Union and not those of
Lithuania. The problem of Lithuania’s dependence on Russia is dire
from the restoration of the independence. That problem is not
solved yet. Even more – after Russian government started to use

23
energy companies as instruments of its foreign policy, threats to
Lithuania’s energy security have grown.

In Kęstutis Budrys words, Lithuania has witnessed that its energy

security is impaired by not only Russia’s, but also Western partners
unfriendly policy47. However, there have been signs of developing
the measures, which could neutralise Lithuania’s vulnerabilities in
the energy sector. It is clear that Lithuania cannot solve its own
energy security problems without the participation of its neighbours
and the EU. The main structural changes in Lithuania’s energy
security sector according to Tomas Janelūnas and Arūnas Molis, could
take place only if EU will consolidate its Common Energy Policy48.
This task is very complicated keeping in mind those EU members
has different energy security priorities because of different energy
sources and energy import routes. Diversification of energy supply
sources for biggest EU countries is secondary or even thirdly task in
energy policy. Most of the old EU countries give priority to bilateral
dialog with energy suppliers and speak for more effective usage of
the existing instruments. It is clear that Lithuania needs to take a
very proactive position in its EU policy to ensure the security
interest in energy sector. With some help from others new members
of EU it is possible to avoid bilateral deals beneficial only for some
national states but not for the whole EU49.

This dissertation presented detailed information on Lithuanian

energy security challenges and perspectives. However there are
some limitations of the research as the sources used in the project
present a distorted view of the problem of energy security of
Lithuania due to personal bias of the author.

It is clear that the greatest progress in Lithuanian energy

47
Kestutis budrys, p. 1.
48
Janeliunas and molis, . 30.
49
Janeliunas and molis, p. 31.

24
infrastructure has been made by the oil sector. This sector, in spite
of the undeclared blockade pursued by Russia, is continuing to
successfully function due to the Būtingė marine oil import and export
terminal build in 1995-199850. Būtingė marine investment today has proven to be
success from both the financial and geopolitical standpoints as it guarantees to some
degree Lithuanian energy security. Electric energy sector have made some progress.
The building of electric networks links in 2006 and 2007 between Baltic States,
Scandinavia, and Poland should be considered a substantial achievement. However
gas sector remains one of the most political problems in Lithuania energy sector. A
complete dependence on Russia’s state owned company Gazprom’s supplies is the
weakest link of the Lithuanian energy security.

Energy security issues in modern Europe are becoming a part of

their new addenda, because of a change in the policy of Russia.
Russia’s conflicts with its nearest neighbours, Belarus and Ukraine,
over gas and oil prices, show its aspirations to eliminate transit
countries51. While many European countries still foster certain
illusions about Russia, the Lithuanian politicians do not. Lithuanian
politicians and general public do not hide any doubts that Russia will
make attempts to employ its new advantages that have emerged
because of considerable increase in energy source prises.
Consequently, the energy and pipeline business developed by
Russia during recent years is seen in quite different context.

Lithuania plays no role in the transit of natural gas to other

European nations. A hypothetical cut off of supplies to Lithuania
would therefore not attract much attention in Western Europe.
NEGP is only one of the projects, which indicates Russian desire to
create favourable conditions for resource supply, to decrease
dependence on transit countries and to make considerable influence
on energy importing countries. This project also will increase
Lithuania’s energy insecurity.

50
Gediminas vitkes, p. 45.
51
Gediminas vitkus, p. 25.

25
Even though NEGP reduces possibilities of the Baltic States and
Poland to resist one-sided Russian energy policy, it also gives new
impulse for solving the energy security problems by common
efforts. Baltic and Central European countries have got a chance to
strengthen regional cooperation in the energy sector. Besides
that, they have attracted the attention of the EU member states on
threats, which may arise from dependence on one energy supplier.
There are already actions taken while trying to build alternative
pipelines of gas and oil supply. Even NATO joined the discussions on
state energy supply.

The research has been conducted within Liberal Institutionalist

theoretical framework, which is based on the premise that
institutions are an important mechanism of achieving international
security. My dissertation presented a liberal institutionalist
explanation of Lithuanian energy security. By applying the elements
of liberal institutionalism, such as relative gains problem, we could
identify issues facing Lithuanian energy security. According to John
Baylis, international institutions themselves are unlikely to eradicate
conflict from the international system but they can play a part in
helping to achieve greater cooperation between states52. Liberal
scholars such as Keohane, Nye, Axelrod, Haas, Levy, Lipson and
Milner states that, states become willing to cooperate once
institutions are seen as beneficial. We could see that progress has
been done. Lithuania together with other states, EU and NATO
institutions stated to cooperate in energy security sector.

Liberal institutionalist approach has proved to be useful research

model for describing Lithuanian energy security problems. The
study achieved its goals of developing a better understanding of
Lithuanian energy security challenges and perspectives, and

52
Baylis, p. 233.

26
presented plausible explanations of the issue. The research has
shown that although Lithuania is still facing energy security risks,
institutions play an important role in Lithuanian energy security
sector.

The research suggests that the Russia may have a powerful position
as a major energy supplier, but it cannot dictate terms in its
relations with the rest of the world. As Rutland indicates, no single
country or company is capable of exerting decisive influence over
the energy market. Trade is a relationship of mutual benefit and
dependence between buyer and seller, and use of trade as a
“weapon” can hurt the supplier as much as the customer53. This
dissertation demonstrated that not before the energy sector
becomes a “normal” business submitting only to laws of economy
would it submit to other, geoenergetic, laws54.

53
Rutland, P. “Russia as an Energy Superpower”, New Political Economy, Vol. 13,
Nr. 2, June 2008. dissertation
54
Kestutis budrys, p. 2.

27