THE ECONOMIC W E E K L Y A N N U A L January, 1960

factory w o r k e r is not very different here, m a k i n g personality coexist stead of detracting f r o m i t . Even
f r o m his a g r i c u l t u r i s t counterpart. w i t h social institutions. those concerned w i t h i n d u s t r i a l p o l i -
In the reviewer's o p i n i o n , a list of On the whole, Machine Age Maya cy w i l l find it extremely useful.
personality traits is not essential to is an i l l u m i n a t i n g study. It is un- The practical suggestion at the end
the. purpose and scheme of the doubtedly an o r i g i n a l contribution of the book is very valuable, and is
study. At least, the book w i t h o u t to knowledge, shedding new light further p r o o f that social anthropo-
the chapter in question w o u l d not on the problem of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n logists deal w i t h observable reality,
of simple societies. T h e conspicu- and do not live outside the work-
have missed a n y t h i n g of value,
ous absence of p i c t o r i a l illustra- aday world.
Perhaps Nash consistently follows M S University of Baroda.
tions, and the sparse use of tables
the "elasticity-coexistence" model and charts add to its attraction i n - December 1950.

Domestic Fuels in I n d i a
L K
Statistics of India's pattern of energy consumption are sadly lacking and it is only in the fast feu
rears that attempts have been made to analyse the situation.
It has been generally known that the major proportion of the country's domestic heat is generated
from secondary fuels such as firewood [as used in the text of this review it includes agricultural wastes such as
bagasse straw, twigs etc), charcoal and cattle dung but the total quantities of such secondary fuels consumed
in both urban and rural areas has remained largely speculative, ranging from 40 to 131 million tons coal
equivalent (MTCE).
If secondary fuels can be displaced by primary fuels (such as coal, electricity and oil), dung can be
used as a manure, thus increasing agricultural production, and deforestation prevented.
It was in this context that the Ministry of Heavy Industries commissioned the National Council of
Applied Economic Research to assess the current demand for domestic fuels, future needs by 1965-66 and,
since India has large reserves of low grade coal, the possibilities of substitution of secondary fuels by the deve-
lopment of a rationally planned coat-based processing industry.

THE title of the report of the to assess one of the i m p o r t a n t con- improvement on previous ones and
Council is Domestic Fuels in stituents. D u n g , have been based on the m a r g i n of error has been re-
I n d i a * — somewhat of a misnomer such intractable variables as aver- duced.
since apart f r o m a few incomplete age measurable quantities of wet
The economic consequences of
comments here and there, the re- dung o u t t u r n per a n n u m , amount
burning such large quantities of
port is devoted l o a n analysis of the actually collected, p r o p o r t i o n of this
secondary fuels are clear. Some-
p r o b l e m presented by the current burnt, livestock p o p u l a t i o n etc. Only
what dramatically the report points
and future demand for domestic the National Sample Survey has
out that b u r n i n g 35 M T C E of dung
fuels for p r o v i d i n g heat for c o o k i n g . published some details about the
in the r u r a l areas is equivalent to
In the rest of the discussion we talk consumer expenditure on 'fuel and
b u r n i n g 900,000 tons equivalent of
of the consumption of fuels in these lighting 4 but provides separate fig-
nitrogen (equivalent to 12 S i n d r i s )
terms only. ures only in respect of Kerosene,
and 150,000 tons of Phosphorous
Gas and E l e c t r i c i t y (on the basis of
The total q u a n t i t y of p r i m a r y Pentoxide - i n terms of food 9 m i l -
their figures, India's consumption of
fuels consumed has already been l i o n tons of foodgrains. every year.
Kerosene w o u l d w o r k out at 2.5 m
estimated by the C o u n c i l in their In respect of the disproportionate
tons. In fact it is about 1.5 m
study The U t i l i s a t i o n of Primary consumption of wood fuel outside
tons!
Energy in India — the constituent the forest areas, it warns that 'con-
units are 2 m i l l i o n tons of soft coke. DUNG CONSUMPTION
ditions are being created in w h i c h
150,000 tons of Kerosene and 140 the annual rate of loss of soil is
m i l l i o n KWII of electricity, in all The methodology adopted is a p p r o a c h i n g that associated with
2.5 M T C E . T h i s is assumed to be interesting. In estimating the total completely barren l a n d ' .
consumed almost entirely in the d u n g consumption to be 37 M T C E ,
urban sector. the report confesses that it is "at
best an intelligent guess' a n d that
SECONDARY FUELS the 'figure should be considered as
It is in a t t e m p t i n g to estimate i n d i c a t i n g the order of magnitude
the q u a n t i t y of secondary fuels con- . . . the actual figure p r o b a b l y lies
sumed that difficulties arise. By far between 35 and 15 M T C E . The
the greater part is consumed in the table alongside is f i n a l l y b u i l t up.
r u r a l areas and most of it is neither The report calculates that the
bought nor sold. Previous attempts total consumption, in the urban areas
is l i k e l y to grow f r o m 20 M T C E to
* Published by A s i a P u b l i s h i n g 3 1 M T C E b y 1970 and i n the r u r a l
House, Bombay- 1959. P r i c e Rs areas f r o m 7 7 M T C E t o 8 5 M T C E .
22.25. These estimates are certainly an
131
January, 1960
PROBLEM OF RURAL ENERGY
In order to evolve a p o l i c y de-
signed to displace secondary fuels,
the report examines the current and
future a v a i l a b i l i t y of p r i m a r y fuels
and comes to the conclusion that the
only p r i m a r y fuels w h i c h could pro-
vide the answer are those based on
coal. Fortunately we possess 50,000
m i l l i o n tons of coal of w h i c h 96 per
rent is low grade, and can be pro-
cessed to provide soft coke or gas or
both.
Centres of consumption in r u r a l
areas are both '.small' a n d w i d e
spread and the location of coal de-
posits entails very heavy investment
in transport capacity which would
render the cost of fuel supplied pro-
h i b i t i v e . Even the simplest d u n g
gas plant costs Rs 3 5 0 ; Solar Cook-
ers are not yet practicable. T h e re-
p o r t therefore suggests that local
answers have to be found f o r the
r u r a l energy p r o b l e m and accepts
the view of Dr Pal ( I n d i a n A g r i -
c u l t u r a l Research Institute) that it
is possible to p r o v i d e the total re-
requirements of secondary fuel in
the f o r m of fuel wood by g r o w i n g
trees on one side of each v i l l a g e for
w h i c h 50 acres per village w o u l d be
required.
50 ACRES PER V I L L A G E !
The preface claims that detailed
suggestions as to how this is to be
applied are given in the concluding
chapter of the report. H a r d l y , — t o
paraphrase W e l l i n g t o n — i f the Coun-
cil believes this, it can believe any-
thing! The peasants are perfectly
aware of the value of d u n g as a
manure. The Government of M a d -
ras survey of the pattern of con-
s u m p t i o n of fuels in Chingleput Dis-
t r i c t ( 1 9 5 1 ) quoted in the report
shows quite clearly that
prefer to use firewood when avail-
able. So do other studies not men-
tioned in the report, so much so that
Mckim M a r r i o t was many times
' c o r d i a l l y requested by one or an-
other H i n d u farmer to please per-
f o r m my natural functions in his
field, so a- to enrich it'. ('Technolo-
gical Change in Over-developed f u r t h e r quantities of Kerosene w h i c h
R u r a l Areas'. Economic
ment and Cultural Change, Decem-
ber 1952; see also M N Srinivas
"Village Studies and T h e i r Signi-
ficance, Eastern Anthropologist report assumes that the p r i c e of soft
M a r c h - A u g u s t 1 9 5 5 ) . M c - K i m M a r . coke w i l l r e m a i n constant—surely a
r i o t goes on to observe that the somewhat d o u b t f u l assumption, since
'supply of manure has a dttect con- s o f t coke is being produced at pre-
nection w i t h p o p u l a t i o n a n d the sent by cheap b u t crude plants using
pressure of p o p u l a t i o n on l a n d ' .
THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY ANNUAL
H o w is it proposed to o b t a i n 50
acres per v i l l a g e f o r g r o w i n g fire-
wood, what sort of organisation ac-
ceptable to the peasants is necessary
to look after this and prevent des-
t r u c t i o n by goats, cattle, etc? Such
questions remain unanswered. These
are c r i t i c a l questions and the pro-
posal of the M i n i s t r y of A g r i c u l t u r e
to intensify a g r i c u l t u r a l develop-
ment in selected districts provides
an excellent o p p o r t u n i t y to experi-
ment w i t h various types of schemes
designed to solve the r u r a l fuel prob-
lems.
COST OF SUBSTITUTION
Urban areas are almost w h o l l y
monetised and on page 23 the re-
port states that their sample surveys
of the pattern of consumption of
fuels in Calcutta, D e l h i and Bombay
indicate that ' p r i c e a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y
are the only, factors of consequence'.
Yet on page 119 it is a d m i t t e d that
' b o t h social and economic conditions
are responsible factors influencing
the choice of fuels'—some of them
appear to be accommodation condi-
tions, convenience, cleanliness, i n i -
t i a l and r e c u r r i n g costs of applian-
ces ( p p 98, 113) a n d even consumer
resistance to change (p 1 1 9 ) .
T h e report considers the cost of
substituting the present pattern of
fuel consumption by available alter-
native fuels in the three cities sur-
veyed t a k i n g i n t o account the rela-
tive efficiencies of the fuels used (a
factor insufficiently understood by
consumers at present) and builds up
a table on page 127. P r i m a r y fuels
(except electricity) are found to be
cheaper than secondary fuels but
the figures for soft coke ( f o u n d to
he the cheapest) are misleading.
Elsewhere is mentioned that soft
coke requires f o r i g n i t i o n 20 to 25
peasants
per cent by weight of charcoal f o r
a certain amount of Kerosene both
more expensive fuels, If allowance
is made for this the 'effective' p r i c e
difference between soft coke and
Kerosene is toned d o w n consider-
ably and the latter begins to appear
as a ' d i s t u r b i n g ' competitor—'dis-
t u r b i n g ' since it means i m p o r t i n g
Develop-
is already costing the country about
Rs 27 crores of foreign exchange.
T h i s gets more serious since the
high grade coal a n d not low grade
132
coal, w h i c h is proposed to be the
basis f o r a large carbonisation pro-
gramme. T h e difficulty i n a r r i v i n g
at a more realistic estimate lies in
the admission that not enough is
k n o w n o f the k i n d o f processes
which can use the varieties of low
grade coal available in the country.
T h i s also vitiates the attempt to
assess the many aspects of a carbo-
nisation p r o g r a m m e such as econo-
mics of coal gas versus soft coke,
location of plants—whether near the
mines or adjacent to centres of con-
sumption and if the latter where,
investment required etc.
FURTHER RESEARCH NECCESSARY
Coal gas avoids the disadvantages
of soft coke but costs of d i s t r i b u -
tion are p r o h i b i t i v e except perhaps
in areas of h i g h concentration of
p o p u l a t i o n . T h e general solution
to the problem of f i n d i n g a p r i m a r y
fuel to displace m u c h of the second-
ary fuel used in u r b a n areas has
to be based largely on coal, althou-
gh m a r g i n a l use m a y be f o u n d for
other p r i m a r y fuels—for instance
the forecast surpluses ' t h r o w n up as
a result of the imbalance' between
pattern of refinery p r o d u c t i o n and
i n t e r n a l demand c o u l d be utilised to
augment gas s u p p l y . F u r t h e r re-
search and economic investigation is
necessary. The report is an inter-
esting i n t r o d u c t i o n to the problems
posed by the present pattern of con-
sumption of domestic fuels. T h e
time has surely come f o r much
greater coordination between the
many parts of Government concern-
ed w i t h the p r o d u c t i o n and supply
of p r i m a r y and secondary fuels.
Record Automobile Production
THE p r o d u c t i o n of automobiles
in the country showed an ap-
preciable rise in 1959, the m a i n
c o n t r i b u t i n g factors being the r a p i d -
ly increasing indigenous content of
cars, trucks a n d vehicles and l i b e r a l
imports of components allowed to
the manufacturers.
The total p r o d u c t i o n of cars, trucks,
buses and jeeps in 1959 amount-
ed to 36,468, the highest recorded
so far. P r o d u c t i o n in the three
previous years, 1956, 1957 and
1958, had been 32,138, 33,058 and
26,788 respectively.
A break-down of the 959 figure
shows that p r o d u c t i o n of cars. ( i n -
c l u d i n g station w a g o n s ) , t r u c k s
( i n c l u d i n g buses) a n d jeep vehicles
amounted to 11,993, 19,099 and
.5,376 respectively.
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 THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY ANNUAL
January, 1960

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