PROBABILITY

Lesson Overview
Students will be reviewing what probability is and exploring the reasons behind some of the
laws of probability. They should understand the concept that probabilities are always
between 0 and 1, and they can be expressed as decimals, fractions, or percentages. They
should also be able to justify how to calculate the probabilities of unions, intersections, and
complements.

Standards
National Standards
Common Core Math Standards
7-SP.5: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that
expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood.
A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event
that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
S-CP.1:
Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics
(or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events
(?or,? ?and,? ?not?).

Prerequisite Knowledge
Students should know how to relate fracations, decimals, and percents. They should also
know how to multiplicy and add fractions, decimals, and percents.

Supporting Details
Materials
Powerpoint presentation
M&M Activity worksheets
One snack size bag of M&M's per student
Helpful Information for Teachers
The explanations of how to compute unions and intersections of events are not
straightforward. You should be very solid on those two concepts in order to give them
appropriate guidance as they figure it out.
Documents
M&M Activity.pdf (124KB)
Probability ppt.pptx (200KB)

Web Links
Source for M&M Activity

Instructional Plans

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Engage 1 (20 min)
1. Engage Details
Sub-components:
Prior Knowledge, Motivation/Interest
Representative Questions:
(1) What do you know about...? (2) What have you seen like this? (3) What
intrigues/interests you about...?
Engage Description:
Students will each be given a snack size bag of M&M's and split up into groups of 3.
Each group will get one "M&M Activity" worksheet and we will read the description at
the beginning together.
2. Formative Assessments
Group Work
Students will have to first predict what's in their bags based on the given information.
Then they have to count their M&M's and add up how many of each color they have all
together. Once this is done, they will make the numbers of each color into a fraction
and percentage of the total.
The teacher should be listening closely and guiding the small group discussions as
necessary.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) What did student prior knowledge indicate about readiness to learn and existing
schema? (2) What interests or intrigues students? How can instruction incorporate
these things?
proceed; quick review; remediate

Explain 1 (5 min)
1. Explain Details
Sub-components:
Evidence/Justify/Verify, Communicate
Representative Questions:
(1) What surprised/puzzled you? What is still confusing? (2) What visuals help to
explain your findings? Explain them. (3) What evidence do you have for your
statement? (4) How would you explain...? (5) What trend does the data show? (6)
What do you mean when you say, ...?
Explain Description:
Who knows what probability is and what it has to do with this M&M Activity?
2. Formative Assessments
Whole Class Discussion
Depending on the responses, incorrect preconceptions that students have about
probability can be addressed now.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Strength of evidence for claims? Ability to verify procedure/results? Skillfulness in
justifying approach/results? (2) Effectiveness of communicating knowledge?
proceed; re-engage; re-explore; remediate; have students clarify

Explain 2 (10 min)

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1. Explain Details
Sub-components:
Interpret, Analyze
Representative Questions:
(1) What took place? (2) What pattern(s) did you notice? (3) What surprised/puzzled
you? What is still confusing? (4) How is this similar or different from...? (5) How does
this apply to what we learned before? (6) What has been learned? (7) Do you agree
with...? Why/Why not? (8) Where have you encountered a similar phenomenon?
Explain Description:
Use the powerpoint slides 1-4 to introduce important definitions to the class
2. Formative Assessments
Whole Class Discussion
For every definition ask them to come up with an example from the M&M Activity.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Quality and accuracy of interpretation of results? (2) Ability to analyze the quality of
exploration conducted?
proceed; re-engage; re-explore; remediate; have students clarify

Explore 1 (10 min)

1. Explore Details
Sub-components:
Predict, Justify
Representative Questions:
(1) What if...? (2) What would you expect to happen? Why? (3) What are some
changes you noticed in...?
Explore Description:
Notice, the sum of the fractional totals is 1 and the sum of the percentages is 100%.
Do a think-pair-share discussing why this is.
2. Formative Assessments
Observation
The sum is the probability of an event that includes all possible outcomes. It is equal to
1 because if all outcomes are favorable, it must be certain that the outcome will be
favorable.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Skillfulness of predictions made? (2) Justification of approach used to solve
question/problem? What justification tells about understanding?
proceed; clarify; remediate; re-engage

Engage 2 (7 min)
1. Engage Details
Sub-components:
Misconception, Motivation/Interest, Develop Scientific Question
Representative Questions:
(1) What have we studied that might apply here? (2) What have you heard about...
that you aren't sure if it is true or not? (3) What intrigues/interests you about...? (4)
What is confusing about...? (5) What questions do you have about...?

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 Engage Description:
Take out the M&M Activity worksheets with the data you collected & answer the
following questions in your notebook. Try it without looking back at your notes right
away!
1.What is the theoretical probability of picking a yellow M&M?2.What is the
experimental probability of picking a yellow M&M?3.Explain the difference between
theoretical and experimental probability in two or three sentences.
2. Formative Assessments
Class Discussion
Ask what someone got for the first two and make sure everyone feels confident about
those two questions. Two or three people share their answers for the third one. If any
misconceptions come up, probe them to debate and justify who is right.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Misconceptions evidenced? How addressed? (2) What interests or intrigues
students? How can instruction incorporate these things? (3) Role of students in
forming scientific questions? How can questions be strengthened?
proceed; quick review; remediate

Explore 2 (7 min)
1. Explore Details
Sub-components:
Predict, Justify
Representative Questions:
(1) What if...? (2) What would you expect to happen? Why? (3) What are some
changes you noticed in...?
Explore Description:
If we defined Event A as picking a red OR a blue M&M, how would you calculate P(A)?
Why did you do it that way?
2. Formative Assessments
Think, pair, share
Listen for their discussions to be heading towards the answer below:
Compute by summing individual event probabilities
Reason for Computation: The word “OR” means that either event can
happen to satisfy a favorable event. BOTH events do not have to happen to satisfy a
favorable event, just one of them. The probability of either of the two events occurring
must be greater or more likely than the individual events occurring.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Skillfulness of predictions made? (2) Justification of approach used to solve
question/problem? What justification tells about understanding?
proceed; clarify; remediate; re-engage

Explain 3 (13 min)

1. Explain Details
Sub-components:
Interpret, Communicate, Alt.explanations
Representative Questions:
(1) Explain what happened? (2) What surprised/puzzled you? What is still confusing?

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 (3) How would you explain...? (4) What trend does the data show? (5) What do you
mean when you say, ...? (6) How is your idea different from...? (7) What do you think
will happen if?
Explain Description:
Go through the definitions on slides 9-11 as a class
2. Formative Assessments
Whole Class Discussion
For each definition, have the students come up with an example before revealing the
one in the powerpoint
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Quality and accuracy of interpretation of results? (2) Effectiveness of
communicating knowledge? (3) Ability to see alternate explanations?
proceed; re-engage; re-explore; remediate; have students clarify

Explore 3 (20 min)

1. Explore Details
Sub-components:
Predict, Design, Test
Representative Questions:
(1) What if...? (2) What would you expect to happen? Why? (3) How can you best
study this problem? (4) What do you need to collect?
Explore Description:
In small groups, discuss how to compute the intersection of two events
2. Formative Assessments
Observation
What is most important for this exploration is their reasoning and thought process
behind predicting how numbers affect each other and predicting if an intersection is
more or less likely than an individual probability. The answer and an example of
justification is below:
Computation: multiply individual event probabilities
Reason for Computation: The first pick has no influence on the next pick. The
probability of satisfying one event is some value between 0 and 1. Does it make sense
that satisfying more than one event is harder or more unlikely than satisfying just one
event? Therefore, the probability of an intersection of events must be less than each of
the individual events’ probabilities. What is a way to calculate the probability of
an intersection, considering both individual event probabilities and guaranteeing that
the answer is less than both of them?
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Skillfulness of predictions made? (2) Quality of study design and relation to goals?
(3) Conjectures being tested? Alignment of testing with the question/content being
explored?
proceed; clarify; remediate; re-engage

Extend 1 (5 min)
1. Extend Details
Sub-components:
Apply, Elaborate, Transfer

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 Representative Questions:
(1) What would happen if...? (2) How do you think... applies to ...? (3) Explain from
another viewpoint. (4) How can this be used in the Real-World? (5) What
questions/problems are still unresolved?
Extend Description:
Homework Assignment: Ask students to design simple games based on the principles
of probability learned in this lesson. They can use dice, spinners, coins, snack size
bags of candy, etc.
2. Formative Assessments
Homework Assignment
Students will hand it in on a later day
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Quality and number of applications made? (2) Ability to elaborate on
ideas/concepts? (3) Skillfulness transferring knowledge to new ideas?
debrief; re-engage; re-explore; have students clarify; another extension

Explore 4 ( min)
1. Explore Details
Sub-components:
Predict, Justify
Representative Questions:
(1) What if...? (2) What would you expect to happen? Why? (3) What are some
changes you noticed in...?
Explore Description:
Think Pair Share: M&M Activity Question 4
2. Formative Assessments
Think, pair, share
Students should be comfortable with doing every part of Question 4. If many are shaky
on the same ones, it can become a small group or class discussion.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Skillfulness of predictions made? (2) Justification of approach used to solve
question/problem? What justification tells about understanding?
proceed; clarify; remediate; re-engage

Extend 2 ( min)
1. Extend Details
Sub-components:
Apply, Generalize
Representative Questions:
(1) What would happen if...? (2) How do you think... applies to ...? (3) What decisions
need to be made? What consequences
/benefits/risks accompany certain decisions?
Extend Description:
Class game day: students share and play the games they have created
2. Formative Assessments
Real-World Application

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 As students play in small groups, the teacher should go around and ask them about
the probability concepts exhibited in their games and how they came up with the ideas.
3. Teacher Reflection
(1) Quality and number of applications made? (2) Competence and accuracy
generalizing experience?
debrief; re-engage; re-explore; have students clarify; another extension

Contributed by:
Kelly Grogan, Manhattan College, NY

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