MMA: Outlook and predictions in an uncertain market

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 Webinar logistics

This event is fully streamed. You will hear audio via your media player only
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I will answer as many questions as possible at the end of the webinar
Finally, the recording and the slides will be available after the live event

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 Agenda

Global MMA supply and demand dynamics

Will the Middle East provide the relief to the global shortage
Is the market taking steps to avoid similar situations in the future?
Future downstream opportunities

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 ICIS MMA/PMMA editors

ICIS has three MMA reports: Europe, the Americas and Asia
Europe – MMA and PMMA - Katherine Sale – katherine.sale@icis.com
The Americas – MMA Adam Yanelli– adam.yanelli@icis.com
Asia – MMA and PMMA – Loy Kheng Wee - khengwee.loy@icis.com

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The process of price reporting

Buyers

Traders Producers

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 ICIS MMA methodology

Contract and spot assessments

Monthly contract added to the European report in October 2011
Assessment based on producer, buyer and reseller feedback

Region Spot cargo

Europe 20-25 tonne trucks
Asia 500 tonnes or more and for isotank
cargoes of 20-300 tonnes
US 20-25 tonnes trucks. 35-40 tonnes railcar

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 MMA market

Supply and demand dynamics

Changes in 2018
Influence of upstream prices

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 MMA supply and demand

Short global supply from mid-2016 to early 2018

Balance improved later in 2018
Asia started the global shortage of product

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 Global pricing

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 Global operating capacity

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 Asia
Planned and unplanned plant outages from 2016 to present
Diminished inventories
Strong demand – notably South Korea and India

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 The Americas

Production constraints reached a peak at the start of 2017

Lengthy production issues for Dow Chemical Deer Park facility
Seasonal uptick in demand in the second quarter

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 The Americas – production

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 Europe
Q4 2015 Europe prices fell 12% - producers look to protect market share
Europe not an attractive export destination in 2016
Perfect storm in 2017

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 MMA – feedstock influence

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 2018 – the calm after the storm?

New capacity in the Middle East

2018 prices at an historic high
Changes in trade flows

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 New Middle Eastern capacity

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 Demand
Coatings demand disappointing in 2018
Some destocking activity
Has a pricing ‘ceiling’ been reached?
Buyers diversify sellers to secure supply

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 PMMA demand
Continued growth – some applications above GDP
Lighting applications continue to grow
Automotive growth
Construction sector – replacement lighting

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 Questions and answers

Katherine Sale
Senior Editor, Manager
Katherine.Sale@icis.com

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 Pricing & Analytics Solutions for MMA
ICIS Pricing Data for MMA
Our MMA weekly report provides
access to:
 Independent price assessments and
market coverage by region
 Historical price data
 Breaking news of latest developments
affecting the markets
Request a free sample report
ICIS Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions for MMA
Live Supply Disruption Tracker
Plant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months, plus the impact of capacity
changes
 Pre-empt competition and capitalise on trades impacted by outages
 Be aware of market shortages, with a real-time view to manage risk and ensure security of
stock
 Negotiate better prices with other market players
Price Drivers Analytics
Cross-commodity and cross-regional analysis of import/export parity, substitution trends and
feedstock/downstream spreads
 Gain new context and negotiating tools in addition to ICIS price assessments
 Pre-empt competition and spot opportunities with visual charts and impact commentaries
 Reduce the time spent making manual calculations and spend more time on strategy and acting on
market opportunities
Supply & Demand Outlooks
Quarterly global supply and demand review and outlook for key value chains and regions
 Support your short-term strategy with upstream and downstream market sentiment and
expectations for the current quarter, at a regional level
 Expand opportunities in international trade
 Understand at-a-glance the regional supply and demand outlook across six key commodity chains
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