Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FY16 121
FY15 63
FY14 65
FY13 62
FY12 40
Source: Company, Geojit Research Source: Company, Geojit Research
Truck tyre demand to revive …Turnaround of Cavendish to aid growth
JK Tyre is India’s largest player with 28% market share The operations of CIL have turned around & it posted a
in truck tyre segment. Importantly, during the past five profit in its very first year of operations led by
fiscals (FY11-16), demand for truck tyre has been almost employee rationalisation & reduction in conversion
flat when compared to long-term average of 6-7%. costs. Notably, the utilisation levels of CIL’s units
However, going forward, we expect truck tyre demand manufacturing truck radials have gone up to 70-80%
to revive & register a CAGR of ~6% over FY16-19E on since acquisition. JK tyre got an access to three factories
account of four factors: (1) shift towards large trucks, (2) located at Laksar (Haridwar) where the company would
government focus on infrastructure development, (3) enjoy tax benefits up to 2020.
stricter vehicle scrappage policy & (4) shift to stricter
emission norms will drive the fleet demand. Chinese imports on the downtrend
Imports of the Chinese tyres have been severely hurt by
India Truck tyre demand to witness a CAGR of 6% during the demonetisation drive. Further, the government is
FY16-19E mulling to impose anti-dumping duty on imported
Chinese truck radial tyres. This can further improve
both volumes and realisations for Indian TBR players.
Y.E March (Rs cr) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E Y.E March (Rs cr) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E
Sales 7,384 6,898 7,689 8,794 9,880 Cash 191 139 295 228 257
% change -3.5% -6.6% 11.5% 14.4% 12.4% Accounts Receivable 1,435 1,403 1,795 1,937 2,176
EBITDA 931 1,117 1,132 1,231 1,463 Inventories 875 873 1,320 1,430 1,577
% change 6.8% 20.0% 1.4% 8.7% 18.8% Other Cur. Assets 460 336 650 719 793
Depreciation 158 216 291 312 317 Investments 140 160 79 79 79
EBIT 773 900 841 919 1,146 Gross Fixed Assets 4,828 6,089 8,390 8,665 8,815
Interest 257 252 440 419 380 Net Fixed Assets 2,701 3,747 5,788 5,752 5,585
Other Income 17 24 65 33 44 CWIP 830 106 326 150 100
PBT 532 672 466 533 810 Intangible Assets - - - - -
% change 22.7% 26.3% -30.7% 14.4% 51.8% Def. Tax (Net) (320) (508) (586) (586) (586)
Tax 162 203 155 178 270 Other Assets 271 288 371 371 371
Tax Rate (%) 30.4% 30.2% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% Total Assets 6,584 6,544 10,038 10,080 10,351
Reported PAT 330 467 375 351 535 Current Liabilities 1,798 1,744 2,061 2,271 2,540
Adj.* (47) (13) 69 - - Provisions - - - - -
Adj. PAT 377 480 306 351 535 Debt Funds 2,975 2,660 5,376 4,926 4,476
% change 16.8% 27.5% -36.2% 14.5% 52.5% Other Liabilities 411 389 491 491 491
No. of shares (cr) 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 Equity Capital 45 45 45 45 45
Adj EPS (Rs) 16.6 21.2 13.5 15.5 23.6 Reserves & Surplus 1,356 1,706 1,919 2,195 2,642
% change 16.8% 27.5% -36.2% 14.5% 52.5% Shareholder’s Fund 1,401 1,751 1,965 2,240 2,687
DPS (Rs) 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 Minority Interest - - 145 151 157
Total Liabilities 6,584 6,544 10,038 10,080 10,351
BVPS (Rs) 61.8 77.2 86.6 98.8 118.5
Y.E March (Rs cr) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E Y.E March FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E
Pre-tax profit. 486 669 536 535 811 Profitab. & Return
Depreciation 158 196 291 312 317 EBITDA margin (%) 12.6 16.2 14.7 14.0 14.8
Changes in W.C (51) (66) (837) (111) (191) EBIT margin (%) 10.5 13.1 10.9 10.5 11.6
Others 272 264 618 386 336 Net profit mgn.(%) 5.1 7.0 4.0 4.0 5.4
Tax paid (131) (160) (155) (178) (270) ROE (%) 30.1 30.5 16.5 16.7 21.7
C.F.O 734 903 454 944 1,004 ROCE (%) 19.3 21.0 15.2 12.9 16.3
Capital exp. (810) (559) (2,520) (100) (100) W.C & Liquidity
Change in inv. 10 3 81 - - Receivables (days) 65.6 68.2 81.0 75.3 75.3
Other invest.CF 0 50 65 33 44 Inventory (days) 52.6 59.7 79.2 73.8 73.7
C.F - investing (800) (506) (2,374) (67) (56) Payables (days) 59.6 60.3 67.6 64.6 65.2
Issue of equity - - - 0 - Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.9
Issue/repay debt - - 2,716 (450) (450) Quick ratio (x) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3
Dividends paid (24) (41) (68) (75) (88) Turnover &Levg.
Other finance.CF 23 (381) (572) (419) (380) Gross asset T.O (x) 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1
C.F - Financing (1) (422) 2,076 (944) (919) Total asset T.O (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9
Chg. in cash (67) (25) 156 (68) 29 Adj. debt/equity (x) 2.1 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.6
Closing cash 191 139 295 228 257 Valuation ratios
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 5.9 8.2 7.2 5.8
P/E (x) 10.8 8.5 13.3 11.6 7.6
P/BV (x) 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5
Recommendation Summary Dates Rating Target
06-June-2017 BUY 212
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serialNumber=5180587d88e0e6997d180a4b21afe3b9c77d53632e69f1f2225fb732909332e0,
postalCode=226006, st=UTTAR PRADESH
Date: 2017.06.06 17:40:25 +05'30'
Geojit Financial Services Ltd. (formerly known as Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd.), Registered Office: 34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom,
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