Running Head: CENTRISM IN A MODERN ERA OF TRIBALISM 1

Centrism in a Modern Era of Tribalism

Sergio Lorenzana

The University of Texas at El Paso

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Abstract

The consequences of not striving to reach a consensus when dealing with societal issues in the

United states leads to a deteriorated representation of the citizens need for infrastructure

reinvestment, social-welfare, and productivity to prevent disinflation from conflictive external

macro factors like trade, technological efficiency, or the addressing of climate change. When

there is a captivation of the majority to be actively involved in political issues triggered by

dissatisfaction, there is a reversal in the trend of deterioration of all the factors mentioned above

and a necessary restructuring of fervor for inclusion in the conservation and enhancement of long

term goals reemerges to benefit those involved.

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Introduction

The purpose of Centrism in a modern era of Tribalism is to inform the reader of the observable

unhealthy habits developed by the United States political system. Partisan groups search today

more for political clout than resolution and compromise in the dispute of ideas which trickles

down or spreads to the divisions in congress when passing legislation. Many arguments are made

of the implications that developed this phenomena in congress but modern tribalism from the

1950’s onward post world war are like when is the division most apparent based on voting

patterns in congress and is this a recurring cycle, What new afflictions does the normal citizen

not affiliated to the legislative groups face to be influenced in the process of policy creating.

Legislative compromise is a fundamental process to preserve the institutions of the united states

that ensure our liberties through ethical behavior, modifications in the availability of funds to

each state senator and, and increased emphasis in the necessity of equal distribution of power in

the main branches of government can help hedge against future degradation of exploited

institutional loopholes and limit authoritarian populism that arises from the dissatisfaction of the

American people’s needs.

When is the division most apparent based on voting patterns in congress and is this a recurring

cycle?

The realization of the degradation in bipartisan behavior in modern American politics is traced

back according Kupchan’s lecture to the period taking place after the Clinton administration or

30 years to the present and introduces the public to the dilemma faced in Iraq of retrieving

American troops and sending them back to the United States a decision which falls on congress

to legislate and make effective. Congress is unable to reach a conclusion and with a majority
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republican senate blocks the Democrat proposed bill that would either send back troops or

greater fund the armed forces to change the strategy going forward in Iraq and in the congresses

compromise between both major political parties spurring a change according to Kamarck to a

nationalization and pursue identity politics. Kupchan then backs up his claim of the topic through

his assertion that “the country is more polarized, more politically charged than at any time in

recent memory.”(Dr. Kupchan). And also inform his audience that according to studies done by

congress show that voting patterns showed that the legislative branch of the American

government has been more fractured and partisan than ever.

What new afflictions does the normal citizen not affiliated to the legislative groups face to be

influenced in the process of policy creating.

Prior to the midterm in the month of October midterm elections the Kruge center hosted a panel

with top strategists and scholars for the purpose of insightful analysis on the midterm elections.

The recurring trend in the first midterm election of an unpopular president with an approval

rating lower than 50% lose an estimate of 40 seats in congress and most commonly in the house

of representatives according to David Barker director of the Center for Congressional and

Presidential studies at American university. The economists midterm election probability graph

below gives a more visible comprehension of the amount of seat at risk of loss seat with a

regression format that concentrates in lightening the districts of both party that will more clearly
CENTRISM IN A MODERN ERA OF TRIBALISM 5

be flipped in the most volatile of the two houses the lower house.

Democratic strategist and chair of the DNC Elaine Kamarck further dives into the midterm

elections which tend to be focused on local community issues but today from media coverage

have become macro issues spurred on by popularity and anticipation called by politically

scientists nationalized midterm elections where there is greater focus on the executive leader as a

whole and countering them. Quality candidates tend to get in in years when it is looking good for

their party they are those who can raise money and are well known in their communities.

Enthusiasm gap indicators are self-reported polls today democrats have an 8 to 12% point margin

over republicans in the generic ballots and the increasing factors of this nationalized elections
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come from a faster paced society with an increase in the last 30 years due to social media, the

greater availability of financial products in the market money is considered to be less important

when it is nationalized and 5 of the 6 prior elections and the last 3 midterms where change

elections as well are considered to be change elections where things like social outspokenness

and also attributed to Tec, finance, guerilla warfare, demographic changes The higher the office

or the more visible it is to the public the less the money raised for campaigning makes an impact

after the competitive threshold we can be thought of as the fixed cost of running an effective

campaigning. This is not the case when dealing with senate rep and gubernatorial races normally

the incumbent who holds more money will overcome their opponent

Structural changes are motivating factors for the diminishing locality of representative races in

the country. Today according to Elain Kamrack only 24 house rep districts that where republican

held where won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election the splitting of tickets is further

becoming less of a norm and more outliers in districts held by an opponent’s party and won by

the opposing candidate. We can see this changing trend from the 1988 election where the

democrats where the majority party in the lower house and the Vice president George H. W.

Bush took 200 votes or 40% of the electorate from this split states beating Democratic nominee

Michael Dukakis governor of Massachusetts. Even after defeat the democrats maintained their

supremacy in the lower house. Local newspapers disappearing, which where once critical op-eds

in the coverage of local events. Also the diminishing of local news that reported on impactful

news in the communities. Both are underserved markets today.

Primary research how many of you have a local news application download or follow a local

news organization like K-fox14, El Paso times, El Paso Inc. and you can’t have local races if

nobody is reporting on local issues.

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Today most people get there news from very globalized social media companies that are not a

very diverse market share applications like Snapchat and Instagram cover pop culture relevant

news which appeal to their young demographics(demographic ages of IG and SNAP) and barley

grace the surface of issues happening in cities that are not considered major players in relevant

industries with small population sizes this makes the majority of people unaware of their own

city problems and major issues. Other companies like Twitter and Facebook which have a more

equilibrated demography struggle with the rapid pace of news or do not want to indirectly

interfere in elections so they push other contents to not be regulated or investigated. Lack of

consistency in voter turnout for democrats while the republican voter of older generations shows

up to midterms and presidential elections. Mainstream corporations are today filtering news and

becoming partisan sources for people who don’t want to be proven wrong according to

psychologists people don’t want to be proven wrong and companies take advantages of

decreased interest in factual information contributing to the nationalization of politics. The

formerly solid Democratic south where you had really, really conservative democrats, right,

there used to be basically three parties in this country: national Republican party, a northern

Democratic party and a southern Democratic party and the southern Democratic party were the

most conservative. Still as of 1988 there were lots of conservative Democrats in the south. That

has changed. People have sorted themselves ideologically and so now there are very few

conservative Democrats. There are very few liberal Republicans. And that means they are going

to have fewer people balancing their ticket or switching votes. It is the way redistricting has

happened. But if sorting is done viewed from the partisan redistricting it has gotten more partisan

and Republicans have had an important sort of thumb on the scale, particularly the last ten years,

just given republican dominance. Ironically, for as weak as Republicans may be on the
CENTRISM IN A MODERN ERA OF TRIBALISM 8

enthusiasm gap or the generic balance today, in many respects the party's at a high watermark in

terms of the number of seats it holds Governor seats, state legislative chambers that they have

control of. Of course control both chambers of Congress across the street. So partisan

redistricting has helped a lot with that. If Democrats are able to in fact have a good year this

year, they'll be pretty well set up heading into the next decade for redistricting. Neighborhood

sorting or clustering or where people live and so increasingly Republicans and Democrats don't

live in the same cities or towns or neighborhoods or blocks like they used to. Democrats

increasingly are clustered in a few heavily-concentrated metropolitan areas on the coasts and a

few other places around, college towns and so that along with Gerrymandering has created these

districts that are overwhelmingly Democratic or overwhelmingly Republican these sorts of

districts people are going to vote along the party line.

Conclusion

There is an emphasis of ethical behaviors set, that have to be maintained on our formal

institutions without this threshold the American people suffer and lose faith in politics to form a

heavily nationalized populist groups that greater influence partisan politics. The fast paced

change of information divulgation makes the necessity of a well-informed public fundamental to

lessen the impact of partisan politics and concentration of districts to benefit certain parties.
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Reference Page

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https://www.loc.gov/today/cyberlc/feature_wdesc.php?rec=4128

D. Barker, E Kamarck, S. Fagen (2018). Dynamics of the 2018 Midterm Elections Retrieved

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H. V. Milner, (2010). The Center still holds Liberal internationalism survives Retrieved from:

https://www.princeton.edu/~hmilner/forthcoming%20papers/The%20Center%20Still%20

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P. Trubowitz, (2007). Dead center The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States.

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liberal-internationalism-in-the-united-states.html

(2018). Introducing our prediction model for America’s mid-term election., Retrieved from:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/24/introducing-our-prediction-

model-for-americas-mid-term-elections

(2014). Lifetime voting records of United States Senators and Representatives. Retrieved From:

https://ballotpedia.org/Lifetime_voting_records_of_United_States_Senators_and_Repres

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Retrieved from: http://0-

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