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November 6, 2018
AP US Government

Joe Manchin to Win West Virginia Senate Race

With 800,000 voters registered on national voter registration day alone, “​record

numbers”,​ nearly quintuple the amount registered on the same day in 2014, it almost seems like

an understatement to promise a “‘​higher than typical midterm [voter] turnout’” (Siddiqui par. 1).

In light of this the president’s skyrocketing disapproval ratings, most Democrats running have

formed their campaigns around a promise to fight Trump’s every political move. However in

West Virginia, as the democratic incumbent who voted to confirm Kavanaugh (Stolberg par. 2),

was formerly endorsed by the NRA, and often votes in favor of Trump’s policies, Joe Manchin

seems to act more like a modern republican than a democrat. He’s running against Patrick

Morrissey, the first republican to serve as West Virginia’s attorney general since 1933, who

boasts both Trump and Pence endorsements, deep in Trump country. With only five points

separating them in the polls, this race promises to be an interesting one.​ ​Nonetheless based upon

The Mountain State’s overwhelming civilian labor force, love affair with unions, and the past

support of the west virginian gun owning population, Manchin will ultimately secure the senate

seat.

He’ll will win the seat due to the states expansive civilian labor force, and union rich

history. According to 2010 census data, 53.78% of West Virginians are a part of civilian

workforce (US census Bureau), and unionization is fairly commonplace. In 1921, the battle of

blair, the largest labor uprising in american history and “​the largest armed uprising since the

Civil War,” (Andrews par. 1)​, was fought in Logan County, West Virginia. Southern west

virginian coal workers rallied together in an attempt to unionize, that despite being unsuccessful,

ultimately led to better working conditions due the publicized brutality of the event. The site was
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even added to the National Register of Historic Places in 2008 (NPS). As a result unions have

remained an important part of the states political culture and history. Today the three largest

teacher unions in WV along with the United Mine Workers of America, have come out in

support of Manchin (Thomas), but the real reason unions will play such a role in this election is

party deep. Democrats historically have been more accepting of unions than republicans.

Furthermore in past elections, West Virginia has proved itself no stranger to the practice of ticket

splitting, electing two republicans to to the House and one republican alongside Manchin (a

democrat) to the Senate, making a Manchin victory, completely plausible.

In addition, Manchin has a long history of support with West Virginia’s gun owners.

While taking a more democratic stance on gun control than his opponent, Manchin received an A

rating from the NRA for his 2010 gubernatorial bid, has introduced NRA backed legislation, and

has come out against instant background checks in the past (Zuckerman par. 14-17). To connect

with gun owning voters, Manchin can be seen in many of his campaign ads shooting pieces of

legislation and court rulings he plans to repeal, or fight against as senator. The most recent even

doubled as an attack on Morrissey for coming out against the Affordable Care Act. This style of

advertising has resonated with voters and won Manchin elections in the past. As the gun owning

54.2% of West Virginia’s population hasn’t seen any drastic growth or decline, there’s really no

reason for it to fail now. Plus at a lurid rate of 14.3% deaths by firearm per every 100,000, and

no permit currently being required to purchase a gun there CBS), common sense gun control for

West virginia, (something Manchin has spoken in favor of (Paulsen par. 7)), makes sense.

Lastly, he’s ahead in the polls. Although not consistently a reliable judge in close races,

due the uptrend of the “secret ballot”, and margins of error (MoE) that really tilt the race in either
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direction, Manchin leads Emerson and MetroNews polls by five points with a MoE of 4.9 for

Metro news, and 3.2 for Emerson (Real Clear Politics). The validity of this will in part will rely

on a high female voter turnout, due the voting gender gap, and the ideological phenomenon that

women are more likely to be democrats than men.

In conclusion, looking at West Virginia’s union rich history, and his support from the

state’s firearm owners, it’s clear to see Manchin will win his race. Firstly, he has the support of

various important unions, including the United Mine Workers of America and West Virginia

Education Association. This is especially important in a union heavy state like West Virginia,

home to the historic battle of Blair Mountain, the largest labor battle in american history. Also

Manchin loves guns, and voters in past elections have connected with his gun heavy campaign

ads, and weak firearm control legislation. He recently took a stronger stance claiming that the

second amendment alone shouldn’t be sufficient enough basis for buying a firearm, but still has a

history of NRA endorsements, and refusing regulatory firearm legislation. And lastly, he’s

leading Emerson and MetroNews polls by 5 points, both with MoE’s under 5 points. His victory

will put the democrats one seat closer to control of the senate, but how useful that seat is, is yet

to be seen. He can be a little bit unpredictable in his supports, with seemingly contrasting views,

possibly representative of the ballot splitting state that is West Virginia. All that’s certain, is

going from an A+ NRA rating to the D he has now, and in his recent defense of Obamacare, his

progressivism seems to be on an upward trend.

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Works Cited

“The Battle of Blair Mountain.” ​History.com​, A&E Television Networks,

www.history.com/news/americas-largest-labor-uprising-the-battle-of-blair-mountain.

Chalasani, Radhika. “Death by Gun: Top 20 States with Highest Rates.” ​CBS News​, CBS

Interactive, 15 June 2016,

www.cbsnews.com/pictures/death-by-gun-top-20-states-with-highest-rates/9/.

Fieldstadt, Elisha. “Gun Ownership by State.” ​CBS News,​ CBS Interactive, 16 Feb. 2018,

www.cbsnews.com/pictures/gun-ownership-rates-by-state/48/.

“Joe Manchin: The 2nd Amendment Is Not My Concealed Carry Permit.” ​The Truth About

Guns​, 15 Mar. 2015,

www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2015/03/johannes-paulsen/joe-manchin-the-2nd-amendment-

is-not-my-concealed-carry-permit/.

“Labor Unions Busy over Holiday Weekend.” ​WV MetroNews – Labor Unions Busy over

Holiday Weekend​,

wvmetronews.com/2018/09/02/labor-unions-busy-over-holiday-weekend/.

“National Register of Historic Places (U.S. National Park Service).” ​National Parks Service​,

U.S. Department of the Interior, www.nps.gov/subjects/nationalregister/index.htm.

OnTheIssues.org. ​Patrick Morrisey on the Issues​, ontheissues.org/Senate/Patrick_Morrisey.htm.

“Polls.” ​RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin​,

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_man

chin-6258.html#.

“Polls.” ​RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin,​
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www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/wv/west_virginia_senate_morrisey_vs_man

chin-6258.html#polls.

Schallhorn, Kaitlyn. “Who Is Patrick Morrisey? A Look at the West Virginia Senate Hopeful.”

Fox News,​ FOX News Network,

www.foxnews.com/politics/who-is-patrick-morrisey-a-look-at-the-west-virginia-senate-ho

peful.

Siddiqui, Sabrina. “US Midterm Election to Have 'Higher than Typical' Voter Turnout, Analysts

Say.” ​The Guardian​, Guardian News and Media, 10 Oct. 2018,

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/10/midterm-elections-voter-registration-turnout.

Stolberg, Sheryl Gay, and Nicholas Fandos. “Collins and Manchin Will Vote for Kavanaugh,

Ensuring His Confirmation.” ​The New York Times​, The New York Times, 5 Oct. 2018,

www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-vote-confirmed.html.

“Teachers Unions Return to West Virginia Capitol for Rally.” ​U.S. News & World Report​,

U.S. News & World Report,

www.usnews.com/news/best-states/west-virginia/articles/2018-09-17/teachers-unions-retu

rn-to-west-virginia-capitol-for-rally.

Zuckerman, Jake. “Morrisey Goes after Manchin on Gun Rights.” ​Charleston Gazette-Mail​, 1

Oct. 2018,

www.wvgazettemail.com/news/politics/morrisey-goes-after-manchin-on-gun-rights/article

_ce24684b-c8a5-522a-b278-953f38b175d8.html.

Zuckerman, Jake. “Morrisey Goes after Manchin on Gun Rights.” ​Charleston Gazette-Mail​, 1

Oct. 2018,
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www.wvgazettemail.com/news/politics/morrisey-goes-after-manchin-on-gun-rights/article

_ce24684b-c8a5-522a-b278-953f38b175d8.html.