Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Landscape in India
Executive summary
Indian apparel market is skewed towards men’s wear 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.9
^ Indian apparel market stood at ~INR 2.6 Tn (as at 2015) with over 40% of it being
dominated by men’s apparel
o Men’s branded apparel saw a much earlier start in growth as compared to
women’s, largely on account of an earlier entry of branded players like Madura
Garments, Raymonds etc.
^ Today, Indian per capita consumption on apparel, at less than $50 a year, is less than 5%
of that of the developed economies USA UK China India
With the growth in branded apparel, a skewed ratio of women to men, and a significant
headroom, the Indian women apparel market is on a high growth trajectory. Women Men
INR bn
%
penetration
Women’s apparel INR bn Women’s Apparel Market - Categories
- Women
41% Market Size(2015) CAGR (2015-2025E)
% 2,779 428
penetration
- Men
39% 30%
33% 17% 17%
310
1,129
1,633 15%
21%
14% 8%
993 492 11%
144
760
207 1,650
106 6% 61
1,141 36
654 786 10 4
^ Under 25% of the women’s market is branded apparel. The market has seen entry of multiple players in the recent decade propelled by demand side drivers of multiple shifts in
consumer behaviour and an increased number of working women
^ A shift from Ready-To-Stitch clothing to Ready-To-Wear along with the entry of national players like Fab India, BIBA, W, AND, Global Desi etc. has propelled the growth in
branded apparel. The branded women’s apparel is set to grow to ~6x in the next decade from the current level
^ There is a significant shift away from traditional sarees towards ethnic wear and western wear. Ethnic and western wear market has been growing at 11% and 17% respectively in
the last few years with some of the key players growing in excess of 50% CAGR
While the growth has been across categories, the of growth has been skewed towards a few sub-categories; western wear & innerwear are the fastest growing sub-
segments.
4|
Source: Technopak, Wazir Advisors, Equity research and Avendus analysis
Top 10 cities v/s Tier 1 & 2 cities
^ Market is gathering pace across geographies
^ Growth in Tier 1 and 2 cities is catching up
fast with the top 10 cities
The top 10 cities dominate market share with other smaller
cities catching up fast
Geographic concentration & headroom Market share by type of cities Top 10 cities
^ India has been undergoing multiple changes, the rural to urban migration has
led a large portion of people with discretionary income being concentrated in 33%
a few top tier cities
^ As a result we see that ~70%1 of the market is typically concentrated in the top 67%
10 cities
^ As these cities become saturated, the growth potential across Tier 1 and 2
towns will lead to the share of spend on discretionary spends increase further Top 10 ROI
and these cities are likely to witness much faster growth rates. Some of the
key growth drivers will be:
Population density/sq.km
Top cities:
o Large population density Population density/sq.km
24,000 22,937
o higher quantum of discretionary spends and 21,000
18,480 Avg. ~19,809
o an increasing consciousness towards fashion
11,297
Source: Census , Euromonitor; Note: Top 10 cities include New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, Gurugram, Guwahati and
Lucknow; Note: 1 Avendus estimates basis our discussions with multiple companies 6|
Store footprint across other tier 1 and 2 cities has been increasing as
compared to Top 10 cities
17%
34% 42% 44%
Consumers
2006 2010 2012 2016
Top 10 Cities Rest of India (ROI) § Lack of transparency
• Lack of information on quality of service, fare
Top 10 Cities Rest of India (ROI)
comparison across operators
2020E 48%
§ Convenience 52%
• Limited options of purchasing tickets from physical
outlets of dedicated operators or agents in the
2016 52%
neighborhood 48%
• Inefficient discovery of available tickets
§ Low customer orientation by bus operators
From 265+ Shopping malls in Top 10 cities accounting for ~52% of total
operational malls, the mix is going to shift towards more ROI cities
1 2
Additional Outlets in Top 10 1 incremental outlet per { 2x }
Y: # of incremental outlets/
existing outlet in Tier 1/2
cities (x) existing outlet 1 33% 28%
2 40% 33%
Current Geographic Additional Outlets in 2 incremental outlet per { 3y } Geographic split 3 45% 38%
growth split existing Tier 1/2 cities (y) existing outlet
4 49% 43%
33% Top 10 CAGR Top 10 cities 45% Top 10 Increase in market share
Currently ROI cities are underpenetrated and the scope to increase points of sales is 2x the existing number as compared to an increase of 1x
in top 10 cities. There is also scope to open as many points of sales in newer geographies as existing stores in ROI cities. This would lead to
sales growth in ROI cities to be much higher than that of top 10 cities.
^ The size of women’s wardrobe has expanded 2x ^ Increase in fashion consciousness is leading to a
in volume terms in the last 5 years with more faster reduction in the “utility value” of clothes
occasions adding to increasing volume of and an increasing artificial obsolescence
clothes being purchased
.
Increasing acceptance of
digital channel Influence of social media
^ The paucity of time and a lower penetration of ^ Rising influence of western media and a
digital peer pressure created from the social
modern retail outside top tier cities is also
media savvy generation is influencing fashion
resulting into the growing of the digital channel consciousness
10 |
Source: Wazir advisors, Technopak, AT Kearney & Avendus analysis
Nuances of buying behaviour are different across physical
and online channels
^ Women shopping behaviour has not only evolved over time, the spending today in heavily skewed towards apparel,
(with it accounting for more than 70% of the share). Accessories and footwear are smaller with a share just close to 10%
^ Share of accessories is quite different when it comes to large online players. In our estimate of the digital channel, 25%
of the purchases are towards accessories and footwear
This leads to an indication of ease of shopping of accessories and footwear online given easy availability and the
paucity of time arising today
~25%
~10%
Apparel Accessories & footwear Beauty Apparel Accessories & footwear Beauty
Trends in discounts
^ E-commerce players have recently been adding large discounts throughout the year. Some large players for instance
have been giving c. 40% discount throughout the year
^ The End of Season Sale (“EOSS”) typically during July & August and January and February sees heavy discounting across
brands in the range of 30-70% based on the vintage of the inventory. Typically 3-4 season old inventory is heavily
discounted as these tend to de-optimize inventory
Discounting in our opinion is unavoidable in the current high intensity competition but at the same time as brands
mature, their visibility increases and as their inventory optimization becomes better, discounts for healthy companies
should reduce over time and full price sell through rates should increase
12 |
Brand association is more with the design language today (1/2);
Style & design are the top considerations
#1 Consideration #2 Consideration #3 Consideration
Pricing/
Fit 20% Fit 20% 20%
Discounts
Pricing/
Variety 16% 17% Style/ Design 19%
Discounts
Pricing/
15% Variety 13% Variety 9%
Discounts
Clean ethnic/ fusion fashion Contemporary Core fashion with less Ethnic fashion with Pret with a mix of Indian &
targeted at 25-35 year old & comfortable fashion component SKD1 looks western targeted at
independent women western wear premium/ luxury segment
Trendy western wear with Indian sensibilities targeted at girls & young women Global western wear fast fashion
14 |
Note: 1 SKD stands for Salwar Kameez Dupatta; Source: Avendus analysis
Higher design proliferation is a notable
trend and has its nuances and impact
on economics
Economics of design: High design proliferation is a notable trend in
the world of women’s fashion across Global and Indian Brands
WESTERN WEAR ETHNIC WEAR
Tops Dresses Kurtas Bottoms
# of # of # of # of
Designs Designs Designs Designs
Colours Colours Colours Colours
16 |
Economics of design: Design proliferation has multiple nuances that can lead
to cost escalation in production, inefficient sourcing & higher inventory
⋀ Increased costs due to over Unsold ⋀ High design proliferation ⋀ Around 20% unsold
⋀ 5-10% cost escalation
Procurement engineering of inventory means more number of inventory at the end of the
inefficiencies specifications ⋀ 30% fabric orders under build-up; unsuccessful styles season
due to design ⋀ Fabric and garment orders MOQs, 2-4% total fabric increased ⋀ Massive end of season ⋀ Proportion of discounts
complexities below factory MOQs1 spend goes as upcharge discounting clearance sales increasing across retailers
resulting in upcharges
Globally, in the last 2 years, a large number of deals have happened in apparel & accessories space with many focussed on women apparel. A major portion of deals involving private
equity investments or exits have been associated with companies having high fashion content as compared to core or regular clothing.
Purchased from 3rd party Self sourced fabric & outsourced job Exclusive Brand Outlet (EBO)
apparel manufacturers work
20 |
Business models vary across various parameters across
value chain(2/3)
⋀ Typically companies with smaller size & limited manpower can benefit from an outsourced model. Usually 10-15% is the commission charged by 3rd
party agents and adds to the cost
⋀ Outsourcing usually brings in predictability in terms of costs while not compromising on the flexibility of the in-house model
⋀ One of the biggest disadvantages is that outsourcing reduces exposure and network building with the mills and a relationship with a mill can go a
long way in ensuring sustainability and ability to get custom made fabrics with consistent quality
Sourcing, job work &
⋀ Outsourcing Job work & manufacturing can allow benefits to have an asset light business model
manufacturing
⋀ Outsourcing can be to agents or integrated mills wherein the former usually comes with the risk of ‘design leakage’ and can have a drastic impact
on the next season sales
⋀ There are about 200 integrated mills out of ~2,300 mills in the country and therefore direct in-house sourcing combined with outsourced job-work
to integrated mills can allow benefits of an asset light model, secured designs and a consistency in quality and sustainable payment terms with the
mill
Outsourced In-house
Optimizing channel mix between Exclusive Brand Outlets (EBO), Large Format Stores (LFS), Multi
In-house team Trade/ Purchased Brand Outlets (MBO), E-commerce websites and own website requires an assessment of various
parameters including, geographic reach, location & footfalls, inventory on display, channel margin
ü Control & flexibility ü Multiple choices and for the franchiser/ LFS operator, discount parity and brand image, supply chain and logistical
to create designs reduced dependence on capabilities.
ü Feedback loop: a few key in-house In our analysis having an equal mix between EBO’s and LFS on the physical side is important to
Integrated function designers strike a balance between geographic reach, brand positioning and inventory control
with access to sales ü Easy for certain Display Footfall
data craftsmanship related Channel margin Inventory potential conversion
ü High control as designs
“Brand”/ “Design” û Limited established None for On-books Very High –
language dedicated design owned/ c. for owned Large no. of High
EBO
û Risk of dependence outsourcing options in 20-30% for EBOs SKU’s
on design team and India franchised
attrition attributed û Difficulty in understanding
risk of brand identity by a third High (30- On-books for High –
45%) Consignment, Medium
party LFS Large no. of
Off-books for SKU’s
SOR
Super-
Premium
Premium
Economy
Domestic
Value / Mass Private Label
Global
INR Bn
Ethnic/ Ethnic Fusion Indicative branded-market share
8.0 Avendus estimate of MRP sales (FY16)
Western Wear 1% TCNS
3% Zara
3% 5% BIBA
Vero Moda 6%
7% 23%
4.0 26% 6%
Pantaloons
Van Huesen & Allen Solly
9% AND
UCB 7%
Shoppers Stop
0.0 9% Madame
Van Huesen & Allen
7%
W & Aurelia
Zara
BIBA
Vero Moda
Pantaloons
UCB
Shoppers Stop
Madame
Ritu Kumar
West Side
Fab India
Globus
109F
Melange
Chemistry
DLF Brands
Jashnn
Fab India
18%
West Side
Ritu Kumar
10% 20%
Solly
13%
109F Globus
13% 14%
Chemistry Melange
Source: Industry research, MCA; Avendus estimates for women’s apparel revenue in MRP terms as at FY16 for key players
Western-wear DLF Brands Ethnic & Fusion Jashnn
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