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10A
So, spinning and rolling sounds simple, doesn’t it? Well, you’re correct, it is simple! All
the player has to do is spin a spinner and roll dice. Fun, family-friendly, and heart-wrenching are
the best words to describe this game. Gabriel Bialek, Nick Lovell, and Renaldo Schmidt wanted
to design an easy and simple game for all people to play. Underneath this entertaining game lies
something crucial for carnival game makers all over the world to consider: probability. Please
enjoy the story behind the creation of this game as well as the rigorous journey of the probability
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To play this game, the player walks up to the playing area which consists of a fair 3-
segment spinner on one side and a single pair of dice on the other side. The spinner’s segments
are labeled 1, 2, and 3. Being that the spinner is fair, not one segment of the spinner is more
likely to be spun on than another segment, as they are all equal. After spinning the spinner you
move on the dice stage. The number that you get on the spinner correlates to how many times
you roll the pair of dice. (e.g., rolling a 1 on the spinner means you get to roll the pair of dice
once, a 2 means 2 rolls of the dice, etc.) If a double is rolled, at any point while rolling the dice,
then the player wins, and can choose a prize. If not, the player loses.
1. When throwing the dice, ensure that they are rolled simultaneously and not one by one.
2. A double is defined as rolling the same numerical value for both dice within one toss.
3. A double can only be seen as two same-value dice within the same roll, and cannot be
Directions:
4. The numerical result of the spin (1, 2, or 3) corresponds to how many pairs of dice the
5. After seeing how many dice can be rolled, go ahead and roll the correct number of pairs
of dice.
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6. Through however many chances the player has to get a double (depending on the number
from the spinner), as soon as a double is rolled, then the player can stop playing and
receive the prize of $6. If no doubles were rolled, however, the player loses.
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This game can be represented by a weighted tree diagram by showing the branches from
the spin on the spinner to their respective branches depending on the spin on the spinner,
changing the number of dies tossed. Finding the probability of winning through each outcome is
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It has been previously stated that the spinner was a fair spinner, and that each portion of
the spinner (labeled 1, 2, and 3) is of equal size. Therefore, it can be said that the probability of
As we progress, each of the outcomes of the spin (1, 2, or 3) has two branches. These two
branches represent the outcome of the dice roll. Recall that to be considered a win, the player has
to roll a double within their play. The probability of rolling a double when simultaneously rolling
Figure 2 shows all the possible outcomes for rolling two dice. The left column represents
one die and the top row represents the second. All of the other numbers within the chart are
representations of all the possible outcomes for a dice roll. Seeing as there are 36 total entries in
the chart, there are 36 total outcomes for rolling a pair of dice. 6 of these are doubles, where the
first number is the same as the second number. Therefore, the probability of rolling a double is
⅙.
Just looking at the outcomes of spinning a 1, there is a win branch (rolling a double) and
a loss branch (not rolling a double). Since it is known that the probability of rolling a double, or
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winning, is ⅙, subtracting this number from 1 will yield the probability of losing, since the
This changes when looking at the outcomes of spinning a 2, however. The first branch-
off is identical. However, the loss branch breaks into two new outcomes, again being winning
and losing. This is representative of the second pair of dice, seeing as spinning a 2 means that the
player can roll another pair of dice on top of the first pair. The reason that the first win outcome
does not break off, however, is because there is no purpose to roll again if the player has won.
This is why only the lose outcome for the first pair of dice breaks again. The same concept is
applied to the branch involving a spin of 3 on the spinner, instead this time the loss branch of the
second pair of dice goes and creates branches for the third pair of dice.
multiplying the probabilities of each event through until there are no more branches. For
example, to find the probability of winning given the player spun a 1, ⅓ would just be multiplied
with ⅙, giving 1/18 or about 5.5555%. For spins with multiple opportunities of winning, the
weighted probabilities of all winning outcomes are added together. For example, the probability
of winning when spinning a 2 would be the probability of winning with the first die (⅓ * ⅙)
added to the probability of winning with the second die (⅓ * ⅚ * ⅙). This gives the probability
of winning given spinning a 2. The total probability of winning is found the same way, adding
the probabilities of winning within each spinner, respectively. These final numbers are listed in
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Figure 3 above shows the theoretical probabilities of winning within the circumstances of
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The expected amount of money that is won or lost by the player is the expected value of
the game. The probability distribution, which helps to find the expected value, shows the
Table 1
Probability Distribution Chart for the Theoretical Probabilities
$ -2 4
Table 1 shows the probability distribution for this game. There are only two possible
monetary outcomes, $-2 and $4. This is because the cost of the game is $2 and the winning
amount is $6. When $2 is spent to play the game and the player loses, they are left with less
money than they had, giving the negative value. When the player wins, the $6 winning amount
has $2 subtracted from it, because this is the cost of the game, so the net take away amount is $4.
The expected value can be found by multiplying each monetary outcome (for winning
and losing) by their respective probabilities, and taking the sum of these two values. This value
of $-0.21 means that in the long run, the player loses $-0.21, or in other words, the operator gains
$0.21.
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Table 2
Actual Game Trials
The table above represents the recordings of the 50 actual trials that were conducted.
Only 24 of them are shown here. The first column represents the number yielded from the
spinner. The next 6 columns represent the numerical values of the die rolls. Even though the dice
were rolled simultaneously, each have their own column. Some of them are blank because in
some cases the spinner gave a 1 or 2 as an outcome, and only 1 or 2 sets of dice had to be rolled,
respectively. The results were examined, and the win/loss outcome was decided based on the
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numbers rolled. If two numbers of the same value showed up within a trial, that trial would be a
win. The rule that dice doubles may not overlap from 2 separate pairs still applies.
Table 3
Probability Distribution Chart for the Actual Experimental Probabilities
$ -2 4
Table 3 shows the probability distribution for the actual experimental probabilities. It is
almost the same as the distribution for the theoretical probabilities, except the probabilities have
changed. Since there were 50 trials and 8 of them were wins, the probability of winning is 8/50,
and the complement is the probability of losing. The dollar amounts still remain the same.
Calculating the expected value is the same process no matter what the probabilities are.
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Table 4
Simulated Game Trials
This table shows the first and last 8 (of 500) simulated trials through the TI-Nspire
calculator software. A Monte Carlo situation was run to simulate the dice rolls. To start off, the
first column consists of random generated integers from 1 through 3, representing the possible
outcomes from the spinner. The next three columns are dice rolls. The probability of a win from
one dice roll can be quantified with the value ⅙, because ⅙ of the outcomes of a pair of dice
being tossed are doubles. In this case, the integers generated randomly for the three ‘dice
columns’ are 1-6. A 1 was assigned as a double because theoretically, it represents ⅙ of the total
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outcomes. After generating the sets of random numbers, each trial was analyzed. Keep in mind
that some numbers were discarded in the decision of whether it was a win or a loss, because
trials could have a 1 or 2 for the spinner number, meaning the decision was based on only the
first or second dice rolls. If a trial had a 1 anywhere contained within the row, then the trial was
considered a win. Otherwise, it was a loss. Through analyzing all 500 simulated trials, 150 of
Table 5
Probability Distribution Chart for the Simulated Experimental Probabilities
$ -2 4
Table 5 shows the probability distribution for the simulated experimental probabilities.
This distribution is the same as the one for the theoretical probabilities, except the number of
wins in the simulations reflect onto the updated probabilities. Since 500 trials were conducted
and 150 were wins, the probability of winning is 150/500, and the complement of this is the
The process of calculating the expected value, shown above, is identical to before. With
the new probabilities, the expected value of the simulated probabilities is $-.20, very similar to
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The Java program simulation above was used for the simulation of 5,000 trials and was
used to determine how many wins and losses there were in total, as well as the percentage of
winning and losing in the simulation. In this program, there were 1471 wins and 3529 losses.
The winning percentage was 29.42% and the losing percentage was 70.58%. The program first
randomized the spinner number between 1 and 3 inclusive to simulate the person spinning the
spinner. Then, considering the qualities needed to have a double, the program analyzed where
doubles were present. It did that for each outcome of the spinner, which were 1, 2, and 3.
The program then randomized the dice number between 1 and 6 inclusive to simulate
someone rolling the pair of dice. It did this twice to act as two dice rolling simultaneously, hence
the variables ‘dice1’ and ‘dice2’ appear. The program then also stops when there is a win. If a
person spins a 3 on the spinner and gets doubles two times in a row, the program knows to stop
on the first double. Lastly, the program prints out a summary of the 5,000 trials including how
many wins and losses, and the win and loss percentage.
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Table 6
Probability Distribution Chart for the Java Program Simulation
$ -2 4
Table 6 shows the probability distribution for the Java program simulation of the 5,000
trials. The probability distribution shows the probability of winning and the probability of losing.
The Java program simulation printed out the number of wins. The number of losses was the
compliment, or just 1 - P(winning). Since this is out of 5,000 trials, the probability of winning is
3529/5000 and the probability of losing is 1471/5000. This probability distribution was then used
The process of calculating the expected value is shown above. The expected value of the
Java program simulation is $-0.23 which is comparable to the expected value of the 500 trials
For all three simulations, the expected value was negative which means that for all three,
the game benefits the operator, not the player. The simulation for the Java program and the TI-
nspire CX were extremely comparable, with the difference being only 3 cents. With this negative
value, this shows that the game is unfair and it is unfair to the player. All three simulations had
different expected values. For the actual trials of the game, where the game is actually played 50
times, the expected value was $-1.04, which is a lot different from the two other simulations, the
TI-nspire CX and the Java program. The TI-nspire CX had an expected value of $-0.20 and the
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expected value for the Java program was $-0.23. These both are extremely similar to the initially
calculated theoretical probability expected value, $-0.21. This probably indicates a bad follow-
through of the game while being played, possibly due to poor tossing, or a poorly designed
spinner.
V. Summary
The Spin and Roll Game should be added to the carnival because it certainly eye-
catching, easy to play, and suits for all ages. Not only this, but in the end, you end up making
profit from players playing the game. This was determined by going through the process of
expected value. Expected value determines how much the player/operator will gain in the long
run. For the first simulation where we had to play the game 50 times, the expected value was
calculated to be $-1.04. For the TI-nspire CX simulation, the expected value was calculated to be
$-0.20 and lastly for the Java program, the expected value was calculated to be $-0.23. All three
simulations end up giving you a profit and for the players, and the price to play the game is
inexpensive so people are going to be more willing to play the game. The game only costs $2 to
play. It will not seem quite as rigged as other games due to the relatively low profit of the game,
Creating the Spin and Roll game took a lot of effort from all team members. In the start
of making the game, all three team members worked on formulating what kind of game it should
be and if it was going to be playable or not. After that, all team members had a really difficult
task of figuring out the theoretical probability, but it was done. All three of us worked on it so
that we can check over each others’ work and see if the theoretical probability is correct. From
there, we had to do all simulations. Nick actually played the game 50 times, Gabriel made the
calculator simulation, and all of us made the Java program simulation. With these simulations
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being completed, the prize of winning and the cost of entering was calculated so that it would
make it unfair to the player. This needs to be done so that the carnival game can make some
profit. $2 to enter and $6 being the prize was chosen for all simulations so that it made profit for
the operator. Renaldo and Gabriel contributed the most to building the game by using all the
parts and pieces to build it. Nick contributed the most to the formatting and writing of the whole
paper, with some help from Gabriel. The Spin and Roll game took a lot of effort and time to
complete, but in the end, it all worked out perfectly so we hope that this game can end up as your
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Works Cited
www.edplace.com/worksheet_info/maths/keystage4/year11/topic/423/2895/sample-
space-diagrams.
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