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April 2005 www.doubleclick.com
THE DECADE IN
Advertising
With data from DoubleClick, Nielsen//NetRatings and other sources 1994-2004
years
By Rick E. Bruner Additional strategic analysis contributed by:
Director of Research, DoubleClick Terri Walter, VP of Corporate Marketing, DoubleClick
Lynn Tornabene, Director of Marketing, Ad Management, DoubleClick
Ben Saitz, Senior Director, Global Operations, DoubleClick
Steven Golus, Director, Strategic Services, DoubleClick
Charles Buchwalter, VP of Client Analytics, Nielsen//NetRatings
Corey Jeffery, Senior Analyst, Nielsen//NetRatings
April 2005 www.doubleclick.com
Online
THE DECADE IN
Advertising
With data from DoubleClick, Nielsen//NetRatings and other sources 1994-2004
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
2004: a Banner Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Catching up to Consumers, Online Advertising Booms Back . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Emergence of a Seller’s Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Advertising: An Industry in Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Marketers Demand Greater Accountability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
Answering to the CFO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
From Eyeballs and Clicks to Interaction Times and Econometric Models . . 9
The Future Looks Rich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
The Search for Marketing Perfection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Tracking Online’s Impact Across Sales and Media Channels . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Striking a Balance Between Measurement and Creativity . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Consumers Demand Greater Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Mass Media Goes Niche . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
‘I Want My iTV!’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
It’s a High-Speed World We Live In . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
The Revolution Will Be Blogged . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
The Long Tail of Potential Ad Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Antidote to Ad Overload: “Invertising”? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Looking Forward: Advertising’s Finest Era . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
Data Footnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
DoubleClick’s The Decade in Online Advertising, 1994-2004
! Consumers are demanding more control. for radio, 10 for the VCR, 17 for personal
Consumers, meanwhile, are reacting to computers, 39 for cable TV and 70 for the
their plethora of media choices and a telephone.
growing volume of marketing messages
Unlike those other media, however, the
by wrestling the instruments of control
from the corporations that have been Internet is literally a hands-on experience,
accustomed to prescribing the media diet where consumers, with hands on mouses
No medium since
that consumers should consume. From and keyboards, can read, research, watch,
black-and-white
Napster to TiVo to pop-up blockers to listen, write, send, meet, organize, post,
television has
blogs, individuals are turning the media program, purchase and much more, all
penetrated 50% of U.S.
model on its head, driven in large part through various simple devices across a
households as quickly
by the same kind of technology tools vast network of millions of collaborators
as the Internet: both
that heralded the digital revolution in and destinations.
did so in eight years
the first place. What the new media and
marketing landscape will look like a In the midst of this churning sea of
few years from now is still unclear, but it information and activity, companies
is likely that the winners in both media advertise. And ample data show that they
and advertising will be those that adapt often succeed in their goals. Which is not
most effectively to the new consumer- to say we have figured it all out yet. But,
centric model. as the pages that follow aim to
demonstrate, we’re getting there.
As per the famous Chinese curse, we live
in interesting times. No medium since
black-and-white television has penetrated 2004: a Banner Year
50% of U.S. households as quickly as the By most accounts, the first web
Internet: both did so in eight years, advertisements were introduced on
counting from the 1993 birth of the HotWired (today Wired News, part of
Mosaic graphical web browser to 2001, Lycos) in October, 1994, for brands
when the U.S. Census found half of homes including Zima, Club Med and AT&T.
were wired. That compares to nine years The ads were narrow strips that ran across
the top of the pages, 60 pixels tall and 468
pixels wide—the proverbial “banner
‘Click here’ ad”—precise dimensions that remain
surprisingly popular to this day.
ads, according to the Interactive Internet ads grew at a rate of 31.5% from
Advertising Bureau (IAB) and 2003 to 2004 (IAB/PWC), compared to
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC). 10% for broadcast TV, 7.4% for the
advertising industry in general (Universal
That is larger than the whole outdoor
McCann) and 6.6% for the current-dollar
advertising industry, about 80% of the size 1
GDP of the U.S. economy as a whole.
of the magazine ad industry and half the
size of the radio ad sector, according to
estimates from their respective industry Catching up to Consumers, Online
associations. Moreover, spending on Advertising Booms Back
2004 was also the high-water mark for
online ad spending in the U.S. and the first
A brief history of online advertising time in four years that the industry has
outspent the previous highpoint of 2000,
as shown in Figure 2. After the dot-com-
fueled NASDAQ peaked at 5,049 in
March of 2000, spending on Internet
advertising dropped during the ensuing
economic recession by 25% from 2000
to 2002.
ad dollars, meanwhile, has been driven by marketplace that the supply of web ad
bottom-line-focused traditional advertisers. inventory was substantially larger than the
According to Nielsen//NetRatings demand from advertisers: a classic “buyer’s
AdRelevance, 30% of ad impressions in market.” Simply put, web advertising was
Q4 2004 were for companies in the very cheap for the last several years.
Fortune 500, as shown in Figure 3
That situation is rapidly changing. As
(previous page).
Figure 4 shows, the growth in the number
Perhaps an even more important milestone of unique visitors and page views has
of 2004 is that it witnessed sold-out slowed to an almost negligible rate
advertising inventory for many premium compared to years earlier. Among the 20
online publishers for the first time in years sites with the most display ad impressions,
(if ever). In fact, in some categories, the total number of page views was up
notably automotive, popular content areas only 5% from Q4 2003 to Q4 2004,
experienced large ad buys as much as a according to Nielsen//NetRatings. At the
full year in advance, along the lines of same time, the number of display ad
TV “upfronts.” impressions in the last year among major
U.S. sites is down (5% down for the top
Emergence of a Seller’s Market 1,200 ad-supported sites; 13% down for
2
Thus, at the end of online advertising’s first the top 20 ad-supported sites).
10 years, a major change is afoot in the Part of that decline in overall display ad
supply and demand of ad inventory, which impressions among the largest sites is due
is going to force advertisers to work harder in large part to a reduction of clutter, as
at optimizing the efficiency of their media sites increasingly feature fewer smaller ad
buys. Until as late as 2003, it had been units (such as buttons and half banners)
assumed to be a law of the online and standardize on the new larger ad sizes
promoted in recent years by the IAB
(especially extra-large banner “leader
Demand out-stripping supply
boards,” wide skyscrapers and medium
and large rectangles).
Whereas 2003 was for distressed prices. Instead, top commodity was widely reported to have
the year when the publishers are serving more of their ad reached a state unthinkable just a couple
online ad industry inventory themselves for premium CPM years earlier: inventory snapped up a
saw “the light at the prices to fewer (brand-oriented) year in advance by advertisers. One can
end of the tunnel,” advertisers for longer-term commitments. only wonder whether other hot sectors of
turning around the the online ad mix—technology, telecom,
The reported revenue growth,
precipitous decline travel, heath care—will follow the same
meanwhile, among several of those large
in spending of the trend soon.
ad networks could be attributed to
previous two years,
growth among smaller sites joining the Whereas 2003 was the year when the
2004 was the year
ad boom, including more international online ad industry saw “the light at the
when the industry
sites, as well as incremental increases in end of the tunnel,” turning around the
reached a “tipping
media prices even at the run-of-network precipitous decline in spending of the
point.”
level of the market. previous two years, 2004 was the year
when the industry reached a “tipping
The result is that market conditions are
point.” Although the tremendous growth
changing, particularly for premium
rate of ad spending from 2003 to 2004
publishers, to the pricing advantage of ad
will likely not continue for years at the
sellers. Anecdotally, many advertisers tell
same pace, it is clear that major
us that CPM prices are rising while more
advertisers have now bought into the
and more publishers report that large
value of the channel and are making up
portions of their impressions are selling
for lost ground.
out a month or more in advance.
More to the point, advertisers are
Car companies, representing one of the
determined to catch up with their target
strongest sectors of offline advertising,
audiences. According to estimates from
are putting the pedal to the metal online.
media-specialist merchant bank Veronis
With two thirds of all car purchases now
Suhler Stevenson, Americans spent more
preceded by web research
time on the Internet in 2004 than with
(JupiterResearch) and one in five car
any other media except for TV and
purchases directly attributable to a lead
radio. And increasingly, Internet users
from a car website (J.D. Power &
are “multimedia-tasking,” surfing the
Associates), car advertisers spent an
web at the same time as they watch TV
estimated $1.2 billion online in 2004, a
or listen to the radio in the background.
51% increase from 2003, according to
Borrell Associates.
Advertising: An Industry in Transition
At the same time, the share of online ads
In many ways, the U.S. advertising
in the auto sector that are rich media
industry has remained remarkably stable
format rose from 23% in 2003 to 58%
for the past decade. According to
in 2004, according to
estimates from Universal McCann, the
Nielsen//NetRatings AdRelevance.
overall U.S. ad industry (including direct
With limited auto content available at mail and yellow pages) grew from $153
top sites, advertising for this precious billion in 1994 to $264 billion in 2004.
During that period, it maintained a for the Internet than the IAB’s, online ad
steady proportion of approximately spending grew 63% from 2000 to 2004
2.2% of U.S. gross domestic product. in absolute terms ($4.3 billion in 2000 to
Over those 10 years, it grew at an $7.1 billion in 2004). The Internet’s
average compound annual growth rate of growth, meanwhile, was 52.7% as a
5.7%, with only one year of negative share of total consumer media ad
growth, falling 6.5% from 2000 to 2001. spending (excluding direct mail and
yellow pages) in that same period, as
Spending on the Internet, meanwhile, as
shown in Figure 5.
a brand new medium, has grown much
faster than on other media, as noted By comparison, overall ad spending in
above. Using Universal McCann’s the same period on TV grew 10.6% in
numbers, which are more conservative absolute terms (from $51 billion to $62
billion) and 3.6% as a share of total
Change in share of ad spend by consumer medium, consumer media ad spending. The
2000-2004 newspaper sector was the biggest loser in
the media mix in terms of share of all ad
dollars. Its readership is aging and
declining, and its important base of
classified ad revenue faces stiff
competition online from the likes of
eBay, Craig’s List, Monster.com and
Match.com. Newspaper ad revenues
were down 4.3% in absolute terms over
the last five years ($49 billion to $47
billion), and they fell 10.4% in terms of
Figure 5 Source: Robert Coen’s “Insider Report,” Universal McCann, 2001 and 2004, excluding direct mail
and yellow pages share of media spend.
“I believe today’s described an industry approaching order maintain competitive share, but
marketing model is radical transformation at the annual their confidence in traditional measures
broken... The conference of American Association of of the effectiveness of their ads is
traditional Advertising Agencies (AAAA) in moderate at best.
marketing model is February, 2004: “I believe today’s
obsolete.” marketing model is broken. We’re Answering to the CFO
applying antiquated thinking and work Oh, for the days of the three-martini
-Jim Stengel,
systems to a new world of possibilities… lunch. Making advertising perform more
Global Marketing
The traditional marketing model efficiently is more than an academic
Officer,
is obsolete.” exercise for businesses today. Over the
Procter & Gamble
Many factors are at play in transforming past 25 years of hyper global
the media and marketing landscape, but competition, companies have been in a
the most important of these can be race to cut expenses and improve
summed up as two sea-changing trends: efficiencies in all aspects of their
a demand by marketers for greater businesses. Materials are now sourced
accountability in the return they get for from the cheapest possible markets
their ad spend, and a demand by worldwide. Logistics and operations have
consumers for greater control over their been streamlined through tools and
media and marketing experiences. processes such as “just-in-time delivery”
Both of these trends have major and enterprise resource planning (ERP).
implications for online marketing, and Manufacturing has been outsourced to
both are being driven in no small part by regions with cheaper labor, as have, more
pressures that “new media” are putting recently, certain white-collar jobs such as
on “old media.” accounting and computer programming.
Media Research, the dominant firm in Clicks are only the most basic way online
television media measurement, marketing programs can be measured.
announced in 2004 it would release a The following are among the metrics by
new minute-by-minute audience rating which sophisticated advertisers
system for TV, due out in October, 2005. commonly measure the effectiveness of
With the advent of that service, their online campaigns:
advertisers will for the first time better ! post-click conversions
understand consumers’ channel-switching
! cost per conversion
activity during commercial breaks
(although trips to the bathroom and ! unique reach of ads delivered
kitchen may still be obscured). ! average frequency of exposures
! frequency-to-conversion ratio
From Eyeballs and Clicks
to Interaction Times and ! ad exposure time (rich media)
Econometric Models ! ad interaction rate (rich media)
When it comes to measurability, online
! brand impact lift vs. control ad
marketing certainly has an advantage
Starting with the (including ad recall, brand awareness,
over traditional media, both real and
invitation to click message association, brand favorability,
perceived. Starting with the invitation to
purchase intent)
featured in that first click featured in that first AT&T banner,
AT&T banner, online has promised real-time ! view-through rate (i.e., delayed visits to
online has promised performance metrics. For the most part, advertiser’s site without a direct ad
real-time click-through)
it has delivered on that promise,
performance although Internet media’s extremely ! share of voice
metrics. For the detailed ability to report consumer ! web page eye tracking
most part, it has interactions has led many marketers
delivered on that ! offline sales lift
to initially pigeonhole it as a direct-
promise. response medium. ! cross-media-mix econometric modeling
In the last few years, however, that Two of the most important developments
perception has changed. The reach of the in online advertising in the past decade
Internet now extends to a majority of also play directly to the Internet’s
homes; high-impact rich media ads have strength of measurability: rich media and
grown in popularity; and brand impact search engine advertising.
measurement studies from firms such as
Dynamic Logic and Insight Express have The Future Looks Rich
become a routine part of online ad “Rich media” is a term used to describe
research. As a result, mainstream brand a variety of online advertising media
advertisers increasingly recognize that experiences, including high-quality
online media have an important place in animation, streaming audio and video,
their advertising mix as well. and software-like features that can be
Among Fortune 500 firms, 39% of their infinite motivations behind the query
total 2004 ad impressions were rich behaviors of search engine users.
media, according to Nielsen//NetRatings
Even for those marketers who do not
AdRelevance. Auto and
want to apply advanced calculus to
telecommunications dedicated more than
optimize their campaigns at the level of
half of their online ads to the high-
thousands of keywords, search
impact format last year, as shown in
advertising remains highly quantifiable
Figure 8.
for any marketer who can estimate the
value of a single click-through to their
Some sectors enjoy a richer media diet than others site or product page. It is that basic
accountability, combined with the hand-
raising nature of search engine users, that
explain the tremendous popularity of
search advertising in the last few years.
Consumers Demand Greater Control accept the fact that there is no ‘mass’ in
Two competing forces have been building ‘mass media’ anymore, and leverage
for decades in the American more targeted approaches... And, we
communications world that in recent must better understand who we are
years have heralded significant changes reaching as media plans become more
for both media companies and fragmented. I give us a ‘D’ here because
marketers. One is the vast proliferation our mentalities have not changed.
of media outlets. The other is the surfeit Our work processes have not changed
of marketing messages in our society. enough. Our measurement has
Add to that digital technologies such as not evolved.”
peer-to-peer file-sharing networks, digital
As media choices have proliferated for
video recorders (DVRs) and blog
consumers, so has the volume of
publishing tools, and the media
advertising we are all exposed to every
landscape as we have known it will never
day. Estimates from various research
look the same again.
companies of the number of commercial
messages the average American is
Mass Media Goes Niche exposed to every day range from
In 1965, advertisers could reach 80% of hundreds to more than 5,000, when you
Americans aged 18-49 by running TV include not only ads in TV, radio
commercials on only CBS, NBC and magazines, newspapers, movie theaters,
ABC. By 1994, the “big four” broadcast web sites and email messages but also
networks (with Fox) commanded a 52% omnipresent logos on billboards, bus
prime-time audience share. By 2004, stops, stadiums, key rings, t-shirts,
3
that share was down to 31%. Today, baseball caps and beyond.
the average U.S. household has 90
TV channels.
‘I Want My iTV!’
As P&G’s Jim Stengel told the AAAA It is no surprise, therefore, that
audience in February 2004, “We must consumers feel overwhelmed and are
increasingly opting out of ads at many
More media revenue now comes directly from opportunities. What started as switching
consumers than from advertisers from one program to another during
commercial breaks with the widespread
adoption of the remote control in the
1980s has evolved into MP3 podcasting
as a homegrown alternative to
commercial radio, pop-up blockers
swatting down online annoyances, and,
most terrifying to Madison Avenue,
TiVo and its rival DVRs radically
changing TV viewing habits, including
ad-skipping abilities.
Figure 11 Source: “Veronis Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast Report,” 2004
that works out to 38% of all U.S. chairman of ABC TV, as head of the
household on broadband. Yahoo! Media Group. MSN has an edge
in the wide adoption of its Windows
According to USC Annenberg School’s
Media Player as a content channel, and
2004 Digital Future Report, broadband
AOL brings a nearly limitless library of
users not only spent more time online at
new and classic content to the table
home (an average 10.4 hours per week
through its parent Time Warner.
versus 6.6 among telephone modem
users), they also spent significantly more
time online shopping, listening to music, The Revolution Will Be Blogged
playing games and accessing No discussion of the changing media
entertainment information. landscape in recent years could be
complete, of course, without talking
Many big companies are betting that
about blogs and other consumer-
widespread broadband adoption will
generated content, including social
usher in a new era of the Internet as a
networks, audio podcasting, mobile-
major new entertainment medium,
camera-phone “mo-bloging” and so on.
alongside its present primary uses for
The ultimate expression of consumers’
information, communication and
desire to have more control over their
shopping. Online video has certainly
content, blogs and related tools allow
captured the imaginations of both
consumers to create their own content,
content providers and advertisers and
without the help of traditional media.
been a major source of buzz in 2004.
The popularity of the phenomenon
In 2004, both Yahoo! and Google
appears to be more than a mere fad,
launched video search engines, and all
having gone from relative obscurity just a
three major portals—Yahoo!, MSN and
few years ago to a significant factor in
AOL—have embarked on aggressive
the 2004 presidential election. According
video content strategies. Yahoo! recently
to the Pew Internet & American Life
appointed Lloyd Braun, formerly
Project, 8% of all Internet users
maintained a blog as of November 2004,
Weblog host Blogspot surpassed the unique monthly
while 38% said they were familiar with
audience of NYTimes.com by the end of 2004
them, and 27% called themselves regular
blog readers.
in February 2005, NYTimes.com had a are indications that the balance may
unique U.S. audience of 5.7 million be shifting with the fast-growing
compared to Blogspot’s 7.6 million. popularity of blogs, social networks and
similar below-the-radar content.
And it is not just college kids who are
taking blogs seriously. Gawker Media, According to comScore analysis prepared
Gothamist, Weblogs Inc. and others have for DoubleClick, Yahoo! alone generated
set out to build professional blog 12% of all page views among the top
publishing networks, and so far 16,000 domains in the U.S. market in
mainstream advertisers including February 2005. Together, the top 100
Absolut, American Express, Audi, British domains generated 58% of the total page
Airways, Fox Searchlight Films, HP, Jose views in the market. The bottom 15,500
Cuervo, Nike, Sony, Palm, Paramount sites collectively generated 25% of those
Pictures, Subaru, Suzuki, Volvo, W page views (Figure 14).
Hotels and Warner Bros. are among the
That last group may or may not sound
advertisers running ads on these and
like a lot. Consider, however, that Google
other blogs.
is one of the largest players in the online
ad world. It does so in part by accessing
The Long Tail of Potential those many smaller sites, connecting
Ad Inventory more than 150,000 mostly small
This explosion of user-generated content advertisers (though many large ones too)
is changing the web media landscape. with hundreds of thousands of small sites
While there have always been large and blogs through its contextually
numbers of sites online, traditionally targeted AdSense program (in addition to
the largest have dominated in terms of its AdWords search-targeted program).
audience and advertising dollars.
There are, in any event, many more than
That remains true today, but there
the 16,000 domains online comScore
included in its analysis above. Alexa, for
Page view inventory: Few sites dominate, followed example, tracks more than 2 million
by a ‘long tail’ of many thousands different domains. So the “long tail” of
page views generated by smaller sites
may be very long indeed. The
significance of this for advertisers
is it represents a possible ad
inventory opportunity particularly as
inventory tightens among top sites.
Figure 15 shows how some of the smaller ! helping people make purchase decisions
units such as the 468x60 “full banner,” when they are seeking advice, such as
the half banner and various smaller bars with search engine marketing;
and buttons have lost share while the ! providing regular product and category
larger banner “leader board,” the wide information when they request it, as in
skyscraper and medium and large the case of opt-in email programs;
rectangles have steadily grown in
! explicitly underwriting the cost of
popularity over the past two years. The premium content they would otherwise
result is fewer demands for consumers’ have to pay for, as in the case of ad
attention on each page, leading in turn to sponsorships;
higher brand impact for marketers and
! offering ad vehicles that passively await
higher per-unit ad prices publishers can
the user to engage interactive,
charge; the proverbial win-win-win.
information-rich content without
“Permission marketing” may not be the requiring a click-through to another
best phrase to describe the new era of site, as in the case of some rich
marketing that is already beginning to media formats;
take shape. “Service marketing” may be ! delighting with ads featuring content so
closer to the idea: entertaining—funny, inspiring,
intriguing, challenging, beguiling—
Ad clutter is on the retreat online, as earlier smaller such as advermovies, advergames and
units are phased out in favor of fewer larger IAB other forms of advertainment, so that
standard units per page consumers download the ads or copy
their URLs in order to enjoy them
over and over and forward them to
their friends.
Advertisers still lag consumers in their than ever, corporations and their agencies
adoption of digital media. As broadband will simply have to strive to make better
reaches more American homes, as advertisements than ever. The new
entertainment companies develop more face of advertising is almost certain to
digital content, and as televisions, mobile be more entertaining, more informative,
phones and other devices further blur the more timely, more relevant, more
distinction between “online” and authentic and more in tune
“offline,” all advertisers will be forced to with customers.
adapt faster to the new media
Premium media brands are likely to
environment or struggle to stay relevant.
attempt to further reduce ad clutter to
With competition for online ad inventory avoid the risk of turning off their
fast increasing and prices already rising, audiences. Publishers that depict the
marketers will have to take a closer look sponsorship value of advertising more
at the ample collection of maturing transparently to consumers and at the
metrics for the online media environment same time reduce interruption-overload
—brand lift, view-through conversions, will benefit from more loyal audiences
offline sales impact, mega-panel and higher ad prices.
behavioral tracking, cross-media mix
Finally, for ad agencies, more creative ad
modeling, detailed rich media
programs and more attention paid to ad
interactions, keyword search usage, and
effectiveness means higher margins and
more. As Internet media continue to lead
less likelihood of formulaic ad models
the way for the future of marketing
being farmed out to the lowest-cost
accountability, traditional media will
production houses.
have to respond with better metrics for
audience composition and marketing DoubleClick looks forward to the
performance in their own channels. opportunity to look back in our next
Decade in Online Advertising Report at
At the same time, in order to better
the 20-year anniversary of the ad banner
engage consumers in an advertising-
to see whether these predictions pan out.
and media-saturated world, where
Meanwhile, keep on clicking!
individuals have more choices and
greater control over message delivery
Data Footnotes
About DoubleClick
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