Isabelle Megosh

November 27, 2018

Period 4
Susan Wilds: The Gold Medalist for Pennsylvania District 7

As an Olympic cyclist and gold medalist, Marty Nothstein, has plenty experience in

winning races, but the election for the House of Representatives Pennsylvania District 7 seat, is

something someone else, Susan Wild, an attorney, will take from him. Pennsylvania District 7

was rezoned this past year as a result of gerrymandering. The district now consists mostly of

Delaware County and parts of Montgomery County, Berks County, Chester County, and

Lancaster County. In the race for the House of Representatives seat, Susan Wild is the nominee

running from the Democratic Party, and Marty Nothstein is the nominee running from the

Republican Party. This race is unexpectedly not contentious. Is it unexpected that the race is not

close because Pennsylvania is often a contentious state and the districts were just rezoned to give

both parties an equal opportunity to run; however, the race is likely to end in favor of the

Democratic Party. In the Pennsylvania District 7 House of Representatives race, Susan Wild, the

democratic nominee, will beat Marty Nothstein, the republican nominee, because of education

levels in the district, the gender gap, and reputable polls that predict Wild will win.

One demographic factor that will impact the election is education levels. Education plays

a large role in determining the outcomes of an election because highly-educated people are more

likely to vote liberal than people with less education who are more likely to vote conservative. In

this district, 89.55% of adults ages 25 and older have at least graduated from high school and

54.50% have attending at least some college or obtained a degree meaning the district is largely

made up of highly educated voters (US Census Bureau). The data used is from Pennsylvania

District 15 as of 2017 which currently makes up 70% of the newly redistricted Pennsylvania

District 7. These highly-educated voters are most likely to vote liberal and in favor of Susan

Wild, not Marty Nothstein. Not only are educated voters more likely to vote liberal, they are
more likely to vote in general. According to The Guardian, in the 2012 presidential election,

21.6% of adults who left school before ninth grade voted compared to the 74.7% of adults with

an advanced degree who voted (Chalabi). With more educated voters at the polls on November

6, Susan Wild will be able to earn more votes than Nothstein.

Another demographic factor leaning in favor of Susan Wild is gender. Gender can play a

large role in elections because of the gender gap. The gender gap is the fact that women are more

likely to vote for liberal-leaning candidates as opposed to conservative-leaning candidates than

men are. In Pennsylvania District 7, 51.7% of the population are female, making them the

majority (US Census Bureau). The data used is from Pennsylvania District 15 as of 2017 which

currently makes up 70% of the newly redistricted Pennsylvania District 7. Although women in

this district are not a large majority, according to the Center for American Women and Politics,

in the 2016 presidential election, 63.3% of eligible women voted as opposed to 59.3% of eligible

men (“Gender Differences in Voter Turnout”). While the female majority is not large, women

are more likely to vote than men, meaning there are likely to be more liberal voters at the polls.

Jennifer Sletvold, a self-proclaimed Republican who lives in Pennsylvania District 7, says, “I

like Susan and I am anti my party at the moment. So I am team Susan.” Even female voters who

have previously identified with the Republican Party are now starting to vote liberal because

candidates like Marty Nothstein are not in support of expanding women’s reproductive rights

and closing the wage gap and Trump’s involvement in multiple sexual assault cases has been

highly publicized, angering female voters and causing them to vote for the Democratic party

more often than previously.

Wild is also currently leading in reputable polls and has been throughout the election.

According to FiveThirtyEight, DeSales University has conducted the most recent poll with Susan
Wild ahead by 11 points with Wild receiving 49% of the vote and Nothstein with 38% of the

vote (“Democrats Still Ahead in Final Poll”). This poll can be used to predict the election

because of its accuracy. An aspect of this poll that makes it trustworthy and accurate is its

questions. The questions asked are not biased because they simply ask which of the following

candidates would the likely voter vote for. Each question offers the option of no opinion so that

someone is not forced into answering a question they do not have an opinion on or don’t

understand. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.2 which is considered a reasonable and

trustworthy margin of error (FiveThirtyEight). Not only is Wild currently leading in the polls,

but she has been throughout the entire campaign beginning in May where she was leading the

election by 11 points based on a poll conducted by Muhlenberg College (FiveThirtyEight).

Many people in the United States are currently hoping for the Democrats to take control

of the House or the Senate in this upcoming election because people are unhappy with what

Trump has done in and out of office. This can be seen in his approval ratings because more

people disapprove of Trump than approve (FiveThirtyEight). According to FiveThirtyEight,

there is 84.4% chance that the Democrats will take control of the House. In all the polls so far,

Susan Wild, the democratic candidate, is leading. This district poll aligns with the national polls

predicting the House to flip which could change what American politics look like for the next

few years. This race may just be the first gold Marty Nothstein can’t win because the people of

Pennsylvania District 7 are rooting for someone else, Susan Wild.

Works Cited

Chalabi, Mona. “How Will Educational Status Affect the US Election Result?” The Guardian,

Guardian News and Media, 16 Oct. 2016, www.theguardian.com/us-

 news/2016/oct/16/college-educated-voters-trump-clinton-turnout. Ac

“Democrats Still Ahead in Final Poll.” WFMZ, WFMZ, 29 Oct. 2018,

www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237.

FiveThirtyEight. "Pennsylvania 7th SOLID D." FiveThirtyEight, ABC News Internet

Ventures, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-

forecast/house/pennsylvania/7/.

“Gender Differences in Voter Turnout.” 20 July 2017. Center for American Women and

Politics, www.cawp.rutgers.edu/sites/default/files/resources/genderdiff.pdf.

US Census Bureau. “My Congressional District.” Census.gov, 25 Jan. 2017,

www.census.gov/mycd/.