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Economic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country. Economic
analysis is a process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy are analyzed. Economic
analysis is important in order to understand exact condition of an economy.
The level of economic activity has an impact on investment in many ways. If the economy grows
rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and vice versa. When the level of
economic activity is low, stock prices are low, and when the level of economic activity is high, stock
prices are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of the firms. The analysis of
macroeconomic environment is essential to understand the behavior of the stock prices.
2. INTEREST RATES
3. INFLATION RATES
4. EXCHANGE RATES
The Gross Domestic Product growth rate measures the increase in value of the goods and
services produced by an economy. Economic growth is usually calculated in real terms or inflation-
adjusted terms, in order to net out the effect of changes on the price of the goods and services
produced. The Gross Domestic Product can be determined using three different approaches, which
should give the same result. These different methods are the product technique, the income
technique, and the expenditure technique. In sum, the product technique sums the outputs of every
class of enterprise to arrive at the total. The expenditure technique works on the principle that every
product must be bought by somebody, therefore the value of the total product must be equal to
people's total expenditures in buying products and services. The income technique works on the
principle that the incomes of the productive factors must be equal to the value of their product, and
determines GDP by finding the sum of all producers' incomes. The real GDP per capita of an
economy is often used as an indicator of the average standard of living of individuals in that country,
and economic growth is therefore often seen as indicating an increase in the average standard of
living.
Figure 1: India GDP Growth Rate – 2013-2018
Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jun 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 jan 2018
The most important and the fastest growing sector of Indian economy are services. Trade, hotels,
transport and communication; financing, insurance, real estate and business services and
community, social and personal services account for more than 60 percent of GDP. Agriculture,
forestry and fishing constitute around 12 percent of the output, but employs more than 50 percent
of the labor force. Manufacturing accounts for 15 percent of GDP, construction for another 8
percent and mining, quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply for the remaining 5 percent.
INTEREST RATES
Interest rates will have an effect on stocks. If interest rates decrease then borrowing capacity of a
company increases so company can go for further expansion and generates more profits. So demand
for stock increases and stock price will rise. In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve
IT SECTOR of India's Central Board of Directors. The official interest rate is the benchmark
repurchase rate.
Figure 2: India Interest Rates
In 2016, the primary objective of the RBI monetary policy became price stability, giving less
importance to government's borrowing, the stability of the rupee exchange rate and the need to
protect exports. In February 2015, the government and the central IT SECTOR agreed to set a
consumer inflation target of 4 percent, with a band of plus or minus 2 percentage points, from the
financial year ending in March 2017.
INFLATION RATES
The inflation rate in India was recorded at 5.40 percent in June of 2018. Inflation Rate in India
averaged 8.44 percent from 2013 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 11.18 percent in November
of 2016 and a record low of 4.38 percent in November of 2015. Inflation Rate in India is reported by
the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), India.
Figure 3: India Inflation Rate
The wholesale price index (WPI) is the main measure of inflation. The WPI measures the price of a
representative basket of wholesale goods. In India, wholesale price index is divided into three groups:
Primary Articles (20.1 percent of total weight), Fuel and Power (16.9 percent) and Manufactured
Products (65 percent). Food Articles from the Primary Articles Group account for 16.3 percent of the
total weight. The most important components of the Manufactured Products Group are Chemicals and
Chemical products (12 percent of the total weight); Basic Metals, Alloys and Metal Products (10.8
percent); Machinery and Machine Tools (8.9 percent); Textiles (7.3 percent) and Transport,
Equipment and Parts (5.2 percent)
EXCHANGE RATES
Exchange rates will also have an impact on stock. If exchange rates decrease then company can import at
lower rates which leads to increase in profits and causes an increase in profits. The USDINR spot
exchange rate specifies how much one currency, the USD, is currently worth in terms of the other, the
INR. While the USDINR spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged in the same day, the USDINR
forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. The USDINR spot
exchange rate specifies how much one currency, the USD, is currently worth in terms of the other, the
INR. While the USDINR spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged in the same day, the USDINR
forward rate is quoted today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date
Figure 4: India Exchange Rate
Sep 2017 oct 2017 dec 2017 jan 2018 feb 2018 mar2018 apr2018 may 2018 jun2018 jul 2018 aug2018
The USDINR traded at 63.77 INR on August 10, 2018 according to interIT SECTOR foreign
exchange market quotes. The Indian Rupee averaged 33.89 from 1973 until 2018, reaching an all
time high of 68.15 in August of 2016 and a record low of 7.19 in March of 1973.
ANALYSIS OF IT SECTOR
Wipro (largely an acronym of "Western India Products") started as a vegetable oil trading
company in 1947 from an old mill at Amalner, Maharashtra, India founded by Azim Premji's
father. When his father died in 1966 Azim, a graduate in Electrical Engineering from Stanford
University, took on the leadersh Timeline
1997 - Wipro gets SEI CMM level 3 certification, enterprise wide processes
Start of the Six Sigma initiative, defects prevention practices initiated at project level.
1998 - Wipro first software services company in the world to get SEI CMM level 5
2000 - Start of the Six Sigma initiative, defects prevention practices initiated at project level.
2001 - First Indian company to achieve the "TL9000 certification" for industry specific quality
standards
Wipro becomes only Indian company featured in Business Week’s 100 best-performing
technology companies.
Ranked the 7th software services company in the world by Business Week (InfoTech 100,
November 2002).
Wipro Technologies Wins Prestigious IEEE Award for Software Process Excellence.
Wipro Technologies awarded prestigious ITSMA award for services marketing excellence .
Wipro wins the 2003 Asian Most Admired Knowledge Enterprise Award.
2004 -Crossed the $1 Billion mark in annualized revenues.
. IDC rates Wipro as the leader among worldwide offshore service providers
2005 - Wipro acquires mPower to enter payments space and also acquires European System on
Chip (SoC) design firm New Logic
2008 - Wipro acquires Gallagher Financial Systems to enter mortgage loan origination space.
2009 -Wipro stops Connectivity IP and closes New Logic Sophia-Antipolis R&D center Wipro
Technologies deals in following businesses an explicit basis for screening applicants, it is
important for legality and fairness to job applicants to verify such biodata empirically.
6. INFOSYS LIMITED (IT INDUSTRY)
Infosys a Bangalore based company started in 1981 has around 5,500 employees. The highest
rated script on the Indian bourses - Infosys is the most admired company on the BSE. It is the
face of the Indian software industry. The company was the first in India to register on the
American stock exchange - NASDAQ with an issue of two million American Depository
Shares (ADR) that raised $70million.
As a part of Infosys globalization efforts the company has set up a global development centre in
Toronto. It also established two proximity centres at Freemont, California and Boston,
Massachusetts. Infosys continues to expand in Europe. In India the development centre are to be
opened at Mohali, Mangalore, Mysore, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai and Bhubhaneshwar.The
companies top clients include Nordstrom, Nortel and Goldman Sachs. Capital One Services
Inc., one of the largest issuers of credit cards, is a new addition to the company's clientele. The
company has pioneered the Employee stock option plan (ESOP) in India. The company has
grown spectacularly with soaring profit margins that stood at Rs.285 crore, up from 132 crore in
1998-99(courtesy Computers Today). Amongst its major products are the IT SECTORing
software popularly known as Finnacle, Banc2000 and IT SECTOR Away.
The company was also judged as the 5th best managed company in Asia. The company's
Chairman Mr.N.R.Narayan Murthy was selected as one of the 50 most powerful people in Asia
for the year 2000 in a poll conducted by Asia week.
The company provides 3 month training to the new recruits in Bangalore. There is also a service
agreement for a year. The pay package is around Rs.17, 000(approx.) for the year 2000 recruits
TCS
Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS) is engaged in providing information technology (IT)
services, digital and business solutions. The Company's segments include banking, finance and
insurance services (BFSI); manufacturing; retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG); telecom,
media and entertainment, and others, such as energy, resources and utilities, hi-tech, life science and
healthcare, s-Governance, travel, transportation and hospitality, and other products. Its services
portfolio consists of IT and assurance services, business intelligence and performance management,
business process services, cloud services, connected marketing solutions, consulting, engineering
and industrial services, enterprise solutions, IT infrastructure services, mobility products and
services and platform solutions. Its software offerings include Digital Software and Solutions, TCS
BaNCS and TCS MasterCraft, among others. It serves industries, including insurance, healthcare,
retail, telecom and others.
The Indian economy is now on the threshold of a major transformation, with expectations of
policy initiatives being implemented. Positive business sentiments, improved consumer
confidence and more controlled inflation should help boost the economic growth. Higher
spending on infrastructure, speedy implementation of projects and continuation of reforms
will provide further impetus to growth. All this translates into a strong growth for the IT
SECTORing sector too, as rapidly growing business turn to IT SECTORS for their credit
needs, thus helping them grow.
Also, with the advancements in technology, mobile and internet IT SECTORing services
have come to the fore. IT SECTORS in India are focusing more and more to provide better
services to their clients and have also started upgrading their technology infrastructure, which
can help improve customer experience as well as give IT SECTORS a competitive edge.
Many IT SECTORS, including WIPRO, INFOSYS and TCS are exploring the option to
launch contact-less credit and debit cards in the market soon. The cards, which use near field
communication (NFC) mechanism, will allow customers to transact without having to insert
or swipe.
Wipro – Comparative Balance Sheets
(Rs. in Crores)
Mar '18 Mar '17 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14
Sources Of Funds
Mar '18 Mar '17 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14
Application Of Funds
Total CA, Loans & Advances 22,330.90 22,954.50 28,331.70 38,240.40 30,450.80
Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11
Income
Expenditure
Selling, Admin & Misc Expenses 16,631.56 12,296.88 9,503.20 7,731.85 7,134.05
Net Profit for the Year 11,175.35 9,810.48 8,325.47 6,465.26 5,151.38
Appropriations
Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11
Assets
Cash & Balances with RBI 27,510.45 25,345.63 16,627.40 16,991.09 25,100.82
Sources Of Funds
Mar '18 Mar '17 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14
Application Of Funds
Less: Accum.
8,922.00 7,605.00 6,461.00 5,480.00 4,642.00
Depreciation
INCOME
EXPENSES
Mar '18 Mar '17 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14
Sources Of Funds
Mar '18 Mar '17 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14
Application Of Funds
Total CA, Loans & Advances 43,119.00 36,120.00 42,538.00 48,963.37 42,795.05
INCOME
EXPENSES
1. Total Income
Interpretation
Total Income indicates the growth of the company. The above table indicates that the total income of all the
IT SECTORS under consideration have increased considerably. WIPRO has been at the top in terms of total
income followed by INFOSYS and TCS IT SECTORS.
100%
90%
80%
70%
3 TCS
60% 24,263.36
57,466.25 49,055.17 41,917.49 32,530.04
2 INFOSYS
50%
1 WIPRO
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2. Net Profit
Interpretation
Net Profit indicates the profitablity of the companies. The above table indicates that all the companies
showed a positive trend in net profits over the last few years. The net profits of all the companies have
increased siginificantly in 2018 compared to the previous year.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 3 TCS
50% 2 INFOSYS
40% 1 WIPRO
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15 Mar'14
3.
Earnings Per Share
Interpretation
EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share, that is, the amount that they
can get on every share held. INFOSYS has recorded a gradual increase in EPS compared to the previous
year. EPS of WIPRO and TCSIT SECTORS has recorded a drastic fall in 2015 compared to the previous
years.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 3 TCS
50% 2 INFOSYS
40% 1 WIPRO
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15 Mar'14
4. P/E Ratio
P/E Ratio
Interpretation
The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the
annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. A higher P/E ratio means that investors are
paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with a lower
P/E ratio. INFOSYS has the highest P/E ratio of 26.1 times while WIPRO has the lowest P/E ratio of
18.8 times.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 3 TCS
50% 2 INFOSYS
40% 1 WIPRO
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15 Mar'14
5. Price/Book Value
Interpretation
Book value is the company's common stock equity as it appears on a balance sheet, equal to total assets
minus liabilities, preferred stock, and intangible assets such as goodwill. This is how much the company
would have left over in assets if it went out of business immediately. INFOSYS is valued at 4.1 times its
Book Value while TCSand WIPRO are valued at only 3.0 times and 2.3 times each at their Book Value.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 3 TCS
50% 2 INFOSYS
40% 1 WIPRO
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15 Mar'14
6.
Return On Net Worth
Interpretation
Return on Net Worth is one of the most important ratios used for measuring the overall efficiency of
a firm and determines whether the investments in the firms are attractive or not. According to the table,
WIPRO and TCSIT SECTORS have recorded an RONW of around 16 - 20% while INFOSYS has
recorded a RONW of 19.4.3%. As the investors would like to invest only where the return is higher,
INFOSYS would be attractive for investment as they have the highest Return on Net worth.
60
50
40
3 TCS
30 2 INFOSYS
1 WIPRO
20
10
0
Mar'18 Mar'17 Mar'16 Mar'15 Mar'14
CHAPTER-V
From the data analysis and interpretations of the ratios of three companies, namely
WIPRO, INFOSYS and TCS, the following findings have been given:
The three IT SECTORS have been performing well in the wake of growing
Indian economy. WIPRO appears to have reached its saturation point as it is
maintaining stable ratios in the last five years.
INFOSYS and TCS has been showing good growth in all the aspects over the
last few years.
TCS has shown a considerable increase in the total income, while WIPRO and
INFOSYS have maintained a good growth in their total income in 2015
compared to 2016.
The total income of WIPRO has started increasing in the last two years, while
TCS is improving its positions quite rapidly when compared to the previous
years.
All the companies showed a positive trend in net profits over the last few years
All the companies have declared consistent EPS in the last few years except in
2018.
By analyzing the current trend of Indian Economy and IT Sectoring Sectors it is found
that being a developing economy there is lot of scope for growth and this sector still
has to cross many levels so there are huge opportunities to invest in.
By analyzing the IT Sectoring sector with the help of risk returrn, it has been revealed that
this sector has a lot of potential to grow. So recommending investing in IT SECTORing sector
with no doubt is going to be a good and smart option because this industry is booming like never
before.
The three giants of Indian IT Sectoring Sector viz. WIPRO, INFOSYS and TCS IT
SECTORS have outperformed in the industry.
WIPRO, the largest private sector IT SECTOR in India seems to have reached its
saturation point after a very good growth over the years.
INFOSYS has been performing consistently and stands in between WIPRO and TCS
IT SECTORS in terms of increase in its growth.
TCS seems to be the best bet for the investors from Risk returrn as it has registered
very good growth in the recent years. All its ratios have out performed over WIPRO and
INFOSYS IT SECTORS.
There are three factors which an investor must consider for selecting the right stocks.
Business: An investor must look into what kind of business the company is doing,
visibility of the business, its past track record, capital needs of the company for expansion etc.
Balance Sheet: The investor must focus on its key financial ratios such as earnings
per share, price-earning ratio; debt-equity ratio, dividends per share etc and he must also check
whether the company is generating cash flows.
Bargaining: This is the most important factor which shows the true worth of the
company. An investor needs to choose valuation parameters which suit its business.
Investment rules
Indian IT SECTORS have fared well on growth, asset quality and profitability with other regional IT
SECTORS over the last few years. Policy makers have made some notable changes in policy and
regulation to help strengthen the sector. These changes include strengthening prudential norms,
enhancing the payments system and integrating regulations between commercial and co-operative IT
SECTORS.
However, the cost of intermediation remains high and IT SECTOR penetration is limited to only a
few customer segments and geographies. While IT SECTOR lending has been a significant driver of
GDP growth and employment, periodic instances of the “failure” of some weak IT SECTORS have often
threatened the stability of the system.
Structural weaknesses such as a fragmented industry structure, restrictions on capital availability and
deployment, lack of institutional support infrastructure, restrictive labour laws, weak corporate
governance and ineffective regulations beyond Scheduled Commercial IT SECTORS (SCBs), unless
addressed, could seriously weaken the health of the sector.
Further, the inability of IT SECTOR managements (with some notable exceptions) to improve
capital allocation, increase the productivity of their service platforms and improve the performance ethic
in their organizations could seriously affect future performance.
The bar for what it means to be a successful player in the sector has been raised. Four challenges
must be addressed before success can be achieved. First, the market is seeing discontinuous growth
driven by new products and services that include opportunities in credit cards, consumer finance and
wealth management on the retail side, and in fee-based income and investment IT SECTOR on the
wholesale IT SECTOR side.
These require new skills in sales & marketing, credit and operations. Second, IT SECTORS will no
longer enjoy windfall treasury gains that the decade-long secular decline in interest rates provided. This
will expose the weaker IT SECTORS. Third, with increased interest in India, competition from foreign
IT SECTORS will only intensify. Fourth, given the demographic shifts resulting from changes in age
profile and household income, consumers will increasingly demand enhanced institutional capabilities
and service levels from IT SECTORS.
The analysis gives an optimistic view about the industry and its growth which recommends
the investors to keep a good watch on the major players to benefit in terms of returns on their
investments.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Text Books
Newspapers
Economic times
Business line
Websites
www.nseindia.com
www.wipro.com
www.infosys.com
www.tcs .com
www.bseindia.com
www.investopedia.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.indiainfoline.com
www.sebi.gov.in