Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Installed
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Current
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Future
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A detailed
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Two strategic
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Methodology,
base – market – market – region portrait – topics – accessibility –
Detailed Comprehensive Detailed forecast In-depth Digitalization Consistent
information on assessment of of market coverage of the as enabler of methodology,
the installed base current market volumes 2019- rail market in intermodal but consideration
of rolling stock volumes on 2021 on regional Sub-Saharan mobility and the of accessibility
and infrastructure regional levels levels for all Africa impact of the changes for
for all product product Fourth Railway European
segments segments Package on the suppliers in
rail supply market several regions
Asia Pacific is the biggest driver of the installed base growth – VHS
rolling stock segment with the highest growth rate of 6.2% CAGR1)
Development of installed base [2015 over 2013]1)
The market outgrew the forecast and reached a CAGR of 3.0% in the
last two years – Rolling stock is the main contributor
Comparison of worldwide total market volume WRMS 2016 vs. 2014 [EUR m]
Market volume p.a. Delta in key segments [without turnkey management]
CAGR Forecast last CAGR [%] +5.8 +2.6 +4.9 +0.1
+3% study1): +2.7% 2011/13-2013/15
69 10,144
159,300
1,279
150,090 +9,210 3,024
5,773
2013-2015
1) Compound annual growth rate 2019-2021 vs. 2013-2015
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3 Future market
France and United Kingdom will invest significantly in the VHS segment,
contributing to the overall market growth
Main projects in Western Europe (selection)
Germany – EMUs (≤160 kph)
> New EMUs (≤160 kph) for the
United Kingdom – HS2 S-Bahn Rhein-Ruhr (~ 140 units)
> Construction of a new
high speed line to link
London with different Spain – VHS
regional cities > 30 new VHS trainsets ordered
by RENFE
France – TGV du Futur
> Orders for new TGV
trainsets (~100 new
VHS units)
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3 Future market
We expect the market in Sub-Saharan Africa to grow fast – There are three
key success factors for doing business in this region
Region portrait: Sub-Saharan Africa
Selected facts Key success factors
Annual
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20,966 GDP growth
Adapted > Affordability of the product and compli-
route Only 293
6.4% Population:
kilometers until 20201) ~460 m product/ ance with local functional requirements
kilometers
in standard (~40% of services > Provision of maintenance
gauge Africa)1) portfolio
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131 Angola
425 162 Nigeria Financing > Helping the local countries to secure
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provision the required funds for the projects
119 388 Tanzania
19 > Understanding the risks associated
2013-2015 2019-2021 with the local capital markets
1) Source: The World Bank, 2015 2) Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique
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5 Two strategic topics
Through its technical and political pillars, the Fourth Railway Package will
increase harmonization and liberalization of the European rail market
Overview of the Fourth Railway Package
Technical pillar Political pillar
'Simplified vehicle authorization and 'A structure that 'Opening domestic 'Maintaining a skilled
safety certification for operators' delivers' passenger markets' rail workforce'
The overall goal of the package is to create a fully open domestic passenger transport
market by 2019 through the establishment of a single European railway area
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5 Two strategic topics
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6 Methodology, accessibility
Reduced accessibility and visibility of certain Continuous exclusion of European bidders from
markets for European suppliers (e.g. share of foreign certain markets (e.g. China, Japan, etc.)
bidders in the Japanese ROS market ~0.25%) –
Total accessibility declined from 68% to 63%
Nearly half of the accessible global rail market for Decreasing accessible market for European rail
rail equipment supplied by the European rail industry suppliers
European rail market is becoming more liberalized Continuous expansion of non-European rail
and open to foreign suppliers suppliers and stronger presence in Europe
Various actions should be undertaken by decision makers to create a level playing field
and to protect the interests of the European rail industry
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Summary: The rail industry will continue its growth driven by demand,
innovation and legislation
Conclusion