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Maurice Carroll, Director

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,


Public Relations
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 27, 2010

CUOMO LEADS BY 20 POINTS IN NEW YORK GOV RACE,


QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
GILLIBRAND STUNS GOP CHALLENGER
New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Republican Carl Paladino 55 – 35 percent
in the governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 7
percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their
mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 55 – 37 percent Cuomo lead in an October 7 survey by the independent
Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today’s survey, Cuomo even wins the support of 19
percent of Republicans, along with 88 percent of Democrats. Independent voters tip slightly to
the Democrat 44 – 41 percent. Cuomo leads 57 – 30 percent among women and 53 – 39 percent
among men.
By a 55 – 33 percent margin, New York likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo,
while Paladino’s favorability is almost the exact opposite, a 57 – 29 percent negative.
New York’s Democratic U.S. senators have commanding leads over Republican
challengers:
• U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi 57 – 34 percent;
• Sen. Charles Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64 – 32 percent.
“That Republican wave that’s said to be sweeping the country runs into a levee – a dam,
a blockade, whatever figure of speech you like – at the New York border probably because of
Carl Paladino’s foot-in-mouth disease. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can start measuring
the Executive Mansion curtains. This race is all but over,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/October 27, 2010 – page 2
“But remember that blow-out polls have a built-in correction factor. Some of the blow-
outer’s supporters figure it’s all right to stay home on Election Day. Some of the blow-outee’s
supporters figure they’d better make sure to vote to keep the score down. Result: it’s still a blow-
out but the numbers tighten,” Carroll added.
By a 54 – 24 percent margin, New York State likely voters have a favorable opinion of
Gillibrand. DioGuardi gets a 30 – 16 percent favorability, with 50 percent who do not know
enough about him to form an opinion.
She leads 60 – 29 percent among women and 55 – 38 percent among men and even picks
up 16 percent of Republican voters, along with 87 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of
independent voters.
Schumer gets a 63 – 30 percent favorability, compared to 23 – 15 percent for Townsend,
with 59 percent who don’t know enough to form an opinion.
“Sen. Charles Schumer might be focusing more on the Nevada results on election night.
He looks to be an easy winner at home in New York. And if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
loses, Schumer could be in line to lead Senate Democrats,” Carroll said.
“Everything’s coming up roses for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. She’s emerged from a
position of relative obscurity to take a 23-point lead with less than a week to go. And New York
City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who was with her at a fancy gala last week, says she’s
‘stunning.’ If you don’t believe that, ask the Democratic and Republican would-be challengers
who have been stunned by her in the last year.”
From October 18 – 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 672 New York State likely voters,
with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow
us on Twitter.

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1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were
Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This
table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Cuomo 55% 19% 88% 44% 53% 57%


Paladino 35 73 7 41 39 30
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 7 5 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 4 4 8 3 10

TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were
Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino?
(This table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22
2010 2010 2010

Cuomo 55 55 49
Paladino 35 37 43
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 7 6 7

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot AC CP

Made up 88% 91% 84%


Might change 11 8 16
DK/NA - - -

2. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 55% 27% 82% 43% 51% 59%


Unfavorable 33 64 9 43 38 29
Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 7 13 11 10
REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 55 53 51
Unfavorable 33 34 34
Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 13
REFUSED 1 3 2

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3. Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 29% 61% 7% 30% 32% 25%


Unfavorable 57 22 86 47 57 56
Hvn't hrd enough 13 16 6 20 10 17
REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 29 33 36
Unfavorable 57 49 31
Hvn't hrd enough 13 15 31
REFUSED 1 3 2

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you
vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or
DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Gillibrand 57% 16% 87% 56% 55% 60%


DioGuardi 34 76 8 36 38 29
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 6 4 7 6 9

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the
candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for
whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for
Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Gillibrand 57 55 48
DioGuardi 34 34 42
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 7 11 9

4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
CAND CHOICE Q4
Tot KG JD

Made up 84% 81% 89%


Might change 16 19 11
DK/NA - - -

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5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about her?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 54% 23% 73% 56% 54% 53%


Unfavorable 24 46 5 31 30 16
Hvn't hrd enough 19 30 20 11 14 25
REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 5

TREND: Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you


heard enough about her?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 54 49 43
Unfavorable 24 24 32
Hvn't hrd enough 19 24 24
REFUSED 3 3 1

6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 30% 58% 13% 30% 35% 25%


Unfavorable 16 4 25 15 18 14
Hvn't hrd enough 50 37 60 51 47 55
REFUSED 3 1 2 3 1 6

TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 30 27 26
Unfavorable 16 11 12
Hvn't hrd enough 50 61 61
REFUSED 3 2 2

7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you
vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend?
(This table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Schumer 64% 25% 93% 63% 61% 68%


Townsend 32 74 6 34 38 26
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 3 1 1 3 1 6

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TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the
candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom
would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or
Townsend? (This table includes Leaners)

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Schumer 64 63 54
Townsend 32 32 38
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 3 4 7

7a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
CAND CHOICE Q7
Tot CS JT

Made up 91% 91% 90%


Might change 9 9 10
DK/NA - - -

8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard


enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 63% 29% 93% 57% 62% 65%


Unfavorable 30 63 3 37 35 23
Hvn't hrd enough 5 7 3 6 2 8
REFUSED 2 1 1 - - 4

TREND: Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 63 62 55
Unfavorable 30 31 37
Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 8
REFUSED 2 1 1

9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 23% 53% 6% 20% 27% 19%


Unfavorable 15 5 23 13 14 15
Hvn't hrd enough 59 41 68 67 58 61
REFUSED 3 2 2 - 1 5

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TREND: Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23
2010 2010 2010

Favorable 23 22 21
Unfavorable 15 12 9
Hvn't hrd enough 59 65 70
REFUSED 3 1 1

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