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CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE TO ENJOY SMALL LEAD

DRAMATIC DECLINE IN OUTLOOK ON COUNTRY AND GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – October 28, 2010] – Similar to the last

reporting period, the Conservatives lead the
HIGHLIGHTS
Liberals by a comfortable six-point margin • National federal vote intention:
(33.9% to 27.8%). What is unusual, however, is ¤ 33.9% CPC
the week to week volatility seen over the two- ¤ 27.8% LPC
week data collection period. In the first week, ¤ 15.1% NDP
the two parties were in a statistical tie. The ¤ 11.6% Green
¤ 9.3% BQ
Conservative Party’s better performance in the
¤ 2.2% other
second week was largely a product of an
upswing in Ontario. • Direction of country:
¤ 44.5% right direction
Also interesting to note is that the fault lines in ¤ 41.6% wrong direction
education and place of birth that emerged over ¤ 13.9% DK/NR
the summer appear to be eroding as
Conservatives are recovering among university • Direction of government:
educated and non-Canadian born. ¤ 36.1% right direction
¤ 53.1% wrong direction
Despite overall stability in vote intention, there ¤ 10.7% DK/NR
were some major and puzzling movements in the
• Attitudes towards Canada’s
second week of polling with regards to outlook
foreign policies:
on both direction of country and direction of the ¤ 37% disapprove
federal government. In a shift that is difficult to ¤ 21% approve
explain, both figures have plummeted to their ¤ 35% neither
lowest points in over a decade fuelled mostly by ¤ 7% DK/NR
discontent among those outside of Conservative
supporters, Quebec residents, and younger • Perceived effect of Conservative
voters. Caution is necessary in interpreting the government’s foreign policies on
Canada’s reputation abroad:
long term implications of this recent
¤ 45% negative effect
development, but typically these broad direction
¤ 22% positive effect
measures are leading indicators of future shifts in ¤ 21% no effect
vote intention. It any case, it will be important to ¤ 11% DK/NR
keep an eye on these numbers.

Please note that the methodology is provided at the

This week, Canadians were also asked whether
end of this document.
they approved of Canada’s foreign policies. In
short, Canadians are underwhelmed with Canada’s actions on the world stage, but there is no real
sense of outrage. Results are predictably negative outside of the Conservative base, but overall,
there is no evidence of major public concerns.

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In the case of reputational impacts on Canada, however, the evidence is far more negative for
the government. By a margin of two to one, a Canadians feel that the government’s foreign
policies are having a corrosive impact on international reputation.

Page 2
Top Line Results:

Federal vote intention: October 20-26

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
33.9

30 27.8

20
15.1
11.6
9.3
10
2.2
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.2% of
Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; October 20-26, 2010 (n=1,140)

Weekly tracking of federal vote intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
50

40

30

20

10
Other
Line
6
0
Sep-082008 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10
Election
Results
Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.2% of
Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point October 20-26, 2010 (n=1,140)

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Direction of country
Q. All things considered, would you say the country is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Wrong direction Right direction

60

50

40

30
May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point October 20-26, 2010 (n=half sample)

Direction of government
Q. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

Wrong direction Right direction

60

50

40

30
May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point October 20-26, 2010 (n=half sample)

Page 4
Attitudes towards Canada’s foreign policies
Q. Overall, do you disapprove or approve of the current government's foreign policies?

100

80

60

40 37 35

21
20
7

0
Disapprove (1-2) Neither (3) Approve (4-5) DK/NR

Higher among:
Higher among:
GP (61%), BC (50%),
CPC (40%), Alberta
LPC (49%), NDP (49%),
(29%)
BQ (46%)

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; October 20-26, 2010 (n=1,312)

Perceived effect of Conservative government’s foreign policies

Q. Overall, do you think that the foreign policies of the current Conservative government have had a negative effect, a
positive effect, or no effect on Canada's international reputation?

100

80

60
45
40

21 22
20
11

0
Negative effect No effect Positive effect DK/NR

Higher among:
Higher among:
LPC (63%), BQ (60%),
CPC (44%), Alberta
GP (59%), NDP (57%),
(38%)
University grads (53%)

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; October 20-26, 2010 (n=1,312)

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Methodology:

EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,
which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,
rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell
phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both a
landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. This
dual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, something
almost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.

The field dates for this survey are October 20 – October 26, 20101. In total, a random sample of
1,312 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,140
decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-3.0 percentage
points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error
margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically
weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada
according to Census data.

1
Please note that these dates are not inclusive of weekends or holidays, as we do not survey on Saturday or Sunday, nor do we
survey on Thanksgiving.

Page 6
Annex I:

Federal vote intention: October 13-19

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40

30.9
29.4
30

20
13.9
11.6 11.2
10
3.1

0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.5% of
Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; October 13-19, 2010 (n=1,592)

Federal vote intention: October 13-26 (2-week roll-up)

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
32.0
28.8
30

20
14.6
11.6
10.2
10
2.8
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided and leaning voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.0% of
Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; October 13-26, 2010 (n=2,732)

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