Research on Risk Analysis for Construction Project Schedule
Based on Flexible Network Simulation
ZHONG Zuo-weiI, XI BaoI, HUANG Qiu-guo', LI Fang-zhen2
1 School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, P.R.China, 150001
2 School of Ecological Environment, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, P.R.China, 010019
Abstract: Construction projects are complex in
nature and have many inherent uncertainties. These
uncertainties have a very significant effect on project.
The flexible network simulation based on SWARM
platform is applied to study the construction project
schedule risk in this research, which makes lots of
improves to the current model. Differing from the
traditional PERT network planning considering only
single critical path, this research introduces the
uncertainties to the simulation duration and critical path.
Then the statistical analysis is adopted to decide the
simulation running times, and the completion probability
and risk degree will be obtained after that. In addition,
the model identify the high risk working procedure
according to the activity critical index(ACI), what is
more important is that the new method computing safe
use rate of path float. The case study indicates that the
method can provide more information about construction
management to decision-makers and managers who can
predominate project risk as a whole.
Keywords: Activity critical index(ACI), Flexible
network simulation, Monte Carlo method, Path float use,
Schedule risk, SWARM platform
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
In construction, schedule, cost and quality are three
basic controlled objectives, while schedule is the
principal controlled objective, especially in some large
and medium-sized construction projects. Construction
execution is affected by lots of factors, and firstly,
external factors have a very significant effect on the
outcome of a project. At the same time, Construction
projects are complex in nature and have many inherent
uncertaintiesE'l. The construction schedule is easily
affected by these stochastic factor and uncertainties, so
the construction duration also has strong uncertainty.
Therefore, these uncertainties should be considered in
calculating and controlling construction duration. While
the construction duration uncertainties in the traditional
Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation
and Review Technique (PERT) are not much considered,
This work is supported by National Center of Technology,
Policy and Management at Harbin Institute of Technology, and
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of
China (No.70201005), and by the Research Program for
Science and Technology of Heilongjiang Province, Grant No.
GC04A106, and supported by Program for New Century
Excellent Talents in University.
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consequently these methods hardly satisfy the
construction schedule control in practical application.
1.2 Literature review
Uncertainty network schedule of construction
activity duration is studied through popular methods as
follows[2]: Fuzzy Network Program (FNP), Program
Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Monte Carlo
Simulation (MCS). The traditional critical path method
(CPM) has been widely used in network analysis and
project planning ever since 1950s. However, it lacks the
considerations of flexibility and uncertainty, so its
effectiveness is limited'3]. The activity duration of PERT
network is uncertain, but its logic relationship is certain.
It calculates expected value and standard deviation of
activity duration through three point estimation and
transforms the uncertain network problem to a certain
network one[4].
However, PERT network has some limitations[5 8]
Firstly, it is based upon the central limit theorem that
assumes all activities are independent. But this may not
be a reasonable assumption in construction scheduling,
when several activities are influenced by the same factor.
Therefore, their durations may be correlated, which will
lead to the increase in the variability of path duration and
the uncertainty of the project completion date 6].
Secondly, there is no recognition that the critical path
may change. The path with a slightly lower mean
duration but greater variance may significantly affect the
project. For these reasons, PERT tends to yield optimistic
results. Xu Zhe[7] applied Monte Carlo method to the
PERT network, but it thinks Monte Carlo method can't
provide the critical path for network.
In the current years, the construction schedule is
usually regarded as flexible network planning[81. In
flexible network planning, all activities duration can
accord to any probability distribution. The flexible
network computer simulation makes a breakthrough
toward the conventional PERT network planning which
only considers the single critical path and assumes all
activities are independent, and it can demonstrate the
uncertainties of construction activities duration. Based on
above existing problems, flexible network planning
provides an effective approach to solve the uncertainties
in the construction schedule.
1.3 Objective
This paper attempt to research the risk of
construction project based on the flexible network
computer simulation for breaking through the limitations
of conventional method. In order to describe the
uncertainties of construction duration and control and
decrease construction schedule risk, this paper studies
the project risk using the flexible network simulation
based on SWARM platform and improve the current
model. The completion probability of construction and
the risk of schedule are calculated from the macro aspect
of the project and from the micro aspect of project
activity, the risk and critical index are incorporated to
calculate the activity critical index. In construction, if the
path float is used inappropriately, it will lead to the
diversion of critical path, the risk of completion in time
will be increased. But there is little literature studying the
risk caused by the path float use, this paper will give the
safe use rate of path float.
2 Flexible network simulation method
2.1 The probability distribution and sample of
stochastic variable
Flexible network simulation is a computer
simulation method. Its basic antilogy is: the construction
of the stochastic variable's probability model, then, the
sample experimentation of probability model and the
experimentation results are used as the solution of the
problem. Therefore, the validity and reliability of
simulation results are decided by the choice of stochastic
variable's probability distribution and sample method.
AbouRizk found that many construction activities are
well described using beta distributions[9 , but because it
is hard to get the data to define the beta parameters,
generally, the pessimistic (PES), optimistic(OPT), and
the most likely(ML) durations are decided by three point
estimation.
The form and parameters of beta distributions can
be seen in the literaturel'0]. Because the probability
density function is excessively complicated, it is difficult
to adopt direct sampling method. The indirect sampling
method is adopted, and the procedure is as follows[i"]:
(I)Estimate the value of PES, OPT , ML , and
calculate the value ofP, q;
(2)Calculate the maximum value off (x), which
is I (ML);
(3)Produce two random number (r1,r2) in the
interval of [0, 1], which conforms to rectangular
distribution;
(4)Calculate the value off [PES + (OPT - PES) rj;
f(PES + (OPT -PES)5l)>r
(5)If ft(OPTA PESr(L) 2 then
PES + (OPT -PES)/r1 is the stochastic activity duration
which conforms to beta distribution.
Otherwise, repeat the procedure (3) to (5) until the
determinant formula is valid. As showed in Fig. 1 is
sample flow chart.
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is the stochastic activity
duration which conforms to beta
distribution
Fig.1 Sample flow chart
2.2 Flexible network simulation steps
Flexible network simulation is based on Monte
Carlo method, which simulates the actual construction in
computer and the characteristics of construction can be
got from the simulation results. Stochastic sampling of
the activities duration is a very important procedure of
flexible networkr121. According to the actual distribution
type and parameter of activities, many independent and
repeated samplings are done to obtain the probability
distribution of project duration and critical path. The
procedure of simulation is as follows:
Stepl: Compile the construction network planning,
and determine the probability distribution type and
parameter of activities.
Step2: Determine the simulation times and grouping
number, and use corresponding random number
generator to create random number series which
conforms to the corresponding probability distribution
and parameter.
Step3: Calculate the total duration and critical path
etc. of every simulation, and statistic the activities' serial
number of critical path.
Step4: Repeat the process above until the simulation
times satisfy the precision of duration.
Step5: Statistic the frequencies of N simulation
duration and activities becoming critical path, and get
construction total duration distribution. In this way,
completion probability curve and duration risk degree
curve can be obtained.
Step6: Calculate the safe use rate of non-critical
path float and output the simulation outcome.
2.3 The determination of simulation times and error
In order to insure the accuracy of prediction results,
there should be enough simulation times. Assume that
there are N times simulation in the construction system,
and N construction durations [T1 T2, - TN ] can be obtained.
- -
It is a sample of the total. Its mean and variance as
follows:
 I N I N _ (2)Divide the durations into groups. The results are
T
N, ZTS2
S 1 (T -T)(1
(N 1) Ei-
According to the error formula of Monte Carlo
method, the simulation error is as follows:
£F = zjXT IN
WhereD(T) is the total variance, and N is the capacity
of sample, which is the simulation times. X is the
normal deviate. Based on the central limit theorem, when
N is big enough, then
Z = (T ISIN
N N(O,1) (3)
Where ,U is the expectation of project duration, From
formula (3), the following can be got,
81Slf 2-et2dt=I-a
With the confidence level given, the value of X
can be obtained from normal distribution table. In
construction, D(T) is unknown in advance. But because
T1, T2,* * TN conforms to the Independent Identical
Distribution, and S2 is the unbiased estimator of D(T),
N 2
S2 = [1/(N -1)]E (T7 -T ) can substituteD(T).
The determination of simulation times as follows:
(I)With the confidence level 1- a given, X can be
gained from the normal distribution table.
(2)Give the absolute error £
(3)Set the preliminary of simulation times No and
calculate the sample variance S2.
(4)Via the above calculation, the minimum
simulation times can be got by N = X 2S2 /£ 2
3 The analysis of uncertainties
construction schedule
3.1 The simulation analysis of construction duration
and completion probability
Duration risk[61 is the probabilityP, which is the
practical duration TC exceeding the planning
durationT . It can be described as follows:
Pr = P (T, > TP)
The analysis of completion probability[131 is the
calculation of the completion probability in specific
duration, which is based on the Probability and Statistic
method according to the statistic characteristic of
simulation duration. Via the duration histogram, we
estimate the empirical distribution curve and empirical
accumulation curve, and the distribution of duration can
be obtained. The procedure is as follows:
(I)Determine the class interval Tg . Tmin is the
minimum duration of N times simulation, T7ax is the
maximum duration of N times simulation, and m is
the number of grouping. So the grouping interval Tis
defined as T, = (Tmax - Tn )/m.
as follow: [Tin,T1],[T1,T2],[T2,I1j]..[Tm 1'Tm] where
TI = Tmin + I>flT2 ==T1 + I..*@T=Tm-1 +T7-
(3)According to interval statistic frequencies of N
(2) simulations, then the duration frequency statistic
histogram and probability distribution curve are
obtained.
(4)According to interval adding up frequencies,
duration empirical accumulation curve can be achieved.
Therefore, according to the corresponding
relationship between duration and completion probability
and with the given duration, we can obtain corresponding
completion probability and schedule risk rate through the
empirical accumulation curve.
(4)
3.2 Critical path and activity critical index
In the simulation system of flexible network
planning, the critical path is defined as the one who is the
critical path most times during the construction
simulations. The activity critical index[14] is the
probability that the activity is on the critical path of
network. With the activity critical index determined, the
main object controlled can be known and there will be a
relative significant sequence in managing the critical
activity.
3.3 The path float use of flexible network planning
The path float use in the network is an effective
method used to cope with various uncertainties within
the construction. For the PERT network, path float is a
stochastic variable, which has influence on the back
closely activity and total duration to some extent, also
has predominant influence on the construction schedule.
Current path float in the PERT network is calculated
in by CPM, According to the current path float concept, the
float of noncritical path i (Tf) is defined as the
difference between the critical path expected
duration(Th)and that of path i (T, ) and can be expressed
as follows:
TFi = T- T (6)
When the CPM deterministic path float is used to
describe the nondeterministic path float of PERT, errors
will be impossible to avoid.
(5) According to the central limit theorem, the expected
finish time of any path i in the network is a random
variable with normal distribution N (T, 2). Where Ti is
the expected duration of the sequence of activities along
path i; ai2 is the variance of the sequence of activities
along path i. Then, A= (T-T)/a will be of the
standard normal distribution N (0,1) .The expected finish
time for any path i in the network can be expressed as
follows:
Tpi = Ti + Aai (7)
Therefore, the path float on the noncritical path
is defined as the following for the PERT network
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planning [5]:
NTFi = Tpk - TP (8)
When the noncritical path float will be used to cope
with some uncertainties, the following equation must be
satisfied to maintain that the critical path remains
unchanged or the noncritical path does not become the
critical path. TPk > Tpi
Tk, + >A 2 Ti + NTFi +2Aq = T, + Tpk - Tpi +>At
=Ti + T, + Au, - Ti - Au, + Au (9)
= T, +Au,

That is, Tk identically equal to T In other words, for

a given P, the critical path will always be maintained. Fig.2 Frequency statistic histogram
Following, we discuss the relation between TFi
and NT7 .
TFi - NTI > (T- T) ('>k 7p
-

(Tk - T (NTk+ 2Jk) (Ti+2o07)] (10)

-

=i ( ai -a, )

AT7, -A(u -k) =T+,

=F
1I =qT (I11)
ATF,=5STF, =qTJt (12)
Where STF represents the safe path float of path i,
ai represents the safe use rate of float on path i. Under
this path float concept, it can provide an effective Fig.3 Probability distribution curve of duration
utilization path for the managers in construction to the
path float. Even if the path float will be used completely,
the expected finish time of project will not exceed the
critical path total expected time

4 Case study
A subproject of large construction project is
simulated to get the completion probability and risk.
Give the confidence levell- a =95%, X =1.645 can be
gained from the normal distribution table. Give the
absolute error £ = 1 day. Set the preliminary of
simulation times No =200 and calculate the sample
variance S2 = 49.09 , thereby the simulation times Fig.4 Completion probability curve
N=133.For the convenience of statistics, in this case we and duration risk degree curve
let N=300, then it comes to the 300 simulation duration.
Where the minimum is 92 days, the maximum is 128
days. Through statistic analysis it comes to the mean
is108.8 days, the variance is 46.93.
Tab.1 Frequency statistic of duration
Duration Frequency Probability probabit
probability dRee
degree
91-95 7 0.030 0.030 0.970
96-100 19 0.083 0.113 0.887
101-105 45 0.196 0.309 0.691
106-110 61 0.265 0.574 0.426
111-115 58 0.252 0.826 0.174
116-120 33 0.143 0.970 0.030
121-125 4 0.017 0.987 0.013 Fig.5 Duration simulation
126-130 3 0.013 1.000 0.000

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 Tab.2 Path float in Fig.1 with completion probability P=95%
Path Path Path Path TF NTF Safe float
number duration Variance use rate (xi
1 1-2-3-6-7-10-11 82.83 48.17 24.00 21.34 0.89
2 1-2-3-6-7-9-10-11 98.83 60.26 8.00 1.45 0.18
3 1-2-5-6-7-9-10-11 106.00 59.69 0.83 1.19 1.43
4 1-2-5-6-7-10-11 90.00 48.47 16.83 20.85 1.24
5 1-3-6-7-9-10-11 85.00 49.79 21.83 18.68 0.86
6 1-3-6-7-10-11 69.00 34.92 37.83 43.14 1.14
7 1-4-6-7-9-10-11 106.83 61.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
8 1-4-6-7-10-11 90.83 46.27 16.00 24.47 1.53
9 1-4-7-9-10-11 97.33 59.83 9.50 2.16 0.23
10 1-4-7-10-11 81.33 44.96 25.50 26.62 1.04
11 1-2-5-8-9-10-11 96.30 56.32 10.53 7.93 0.75
12 1-2-5-8-11 76.80 49.06 30.03 19.88 0.66

Tab.3 Activity critical index delay duration. In Tab 2, paths 3, 4, 6, 8 and 10 are
Activity ACI Activity ACI Activity ACI noncritical path, and their float using rate are large than 1.
1-2 0.52 4-6 0.46 7-10 0.01
These results are interesting and somewhat surprising. In
other words, the float on these paths exceeded the CPM
1-3 0.00 4-7 0.02 8-9 0.04 float. The reason is that the new path float combined the
1-4 0.48 5-6 0.43 8-11 0.00 joint influence of expected time and its variance. The
2-3 0.06 5-8 0.04 9-10 0.99 variance on path will greatly affect the float time on path
2-5 0.47 6-7 0.94 10-11 1.00 according to Eq (8). However, according to the new path
float concept presented in this paper, this phenomenon
3-6 0.00 7-9 0.95 will not take place and all path float use rates on path
will be 1. This implies that the managers on site can
In this case, the class interval is 5 days, Tab.1 is safely use the path float with the total time not to exceed
Frequency statistic of Duration, Fig.2 is Frequency the expected total time.
statistic histogram, Fig.3 is probability distribution curve
of duration, Fig.4 is completion probability curve and 5 Conclusion
duration risk degree curve, if you want to know the
completion probability curve and duration risk degree This paper makes deep research into the
with the specific duration, you can search the construction schedule risk with flexible network
homologous point in Fig.4. In Fig.5, we can know each simulation taking the stochastic factor into consideration,
simulation duration and cumulative expected duration so each duration and critical path are different, the
and know the diversification tendency of each simulation. construction schedule uncertainties are well described.
Through times of construction system simulations, it From the thought of statistic, the minimal simulation
comes to the critical path, activity critical index, path times in permission range of error is determined,
float and the safe use rate float with new concept are calculating the completion probability, duration risk and
obtained, and the influence of variance has been taken activity critical index, discriminating activity with high
into consideration under the new concept of path float risk. The safe use rate of path float is calculated by a new
considers. From Tab.2 we know the critical path is method, which provides useful planning information in
1-4-6-7-9-10-1 1, but path 1-2-5-6-7-9-10-1 1 also can not path float use to construction managers. The construction
be ignored, because of the variance of the path and case indicates that the method adopted in this paper can
critical path is closely, simultaneously, from Tab.3 well describe the completion probability or the risk of the
knowing the activity critical index of the path such as construction schedule planning, and can exactly know
1-2, 2-5, 5-6 are near 0.5, so it can easily invert into the distribution of the critical path, through which the
critical path which should be attached great importance. manager can master the duration change range and the
From Tab.3 we can know all activities critical index, trend of the critical path in advance, as well as the
according to ACI executing schedule risk grade, we project risk in a whole, then the decision-maker can
consider activities 10-1 1, 9-10, 7-9, 6-7 as the source of determine the reasonable duration and carry it out
schedule with high risk which should reinforce risk effectively.
prevention and management, avoiding to arise risk and

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