Professional Documents
Culture Documents
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
World Trade
Setting the Context
or
Why Trade?
1
Mercantilists’ View of
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
Trade
According to the logic of Mercantilism (the
accepted viewpoint in the 17th-18th centuries), the
way for a nation to become rich was to export
more than it imported.
The policy implication was that the government
had to do all in its power to stimulate the
nation’s exports and to discourage and restrict
imports.
Do you agree??
2
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
• 2004- $ US 11 trillion
– Merchandise exports- $US 8.9 trillion
– Services exports- $US 2.1 trillion
• 2006—
– Merchandise exports--$US 11.98 trillion
– Services exports--$US 2.7 trillion
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
4
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
5
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
– 2002- 10%
– 2003- 12.6%
– 2004- 23.6%
– 2005- 12.4%
– 2006- 12.2% (Value in 2006: US$ 0.527 trillion)
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
Overall Growth
TRAINING NETWORK
– 2001- 3.5%
– 2002- 5.9%
– 2003- 6.5%
– 2004- 7.8%
– 2005- 7.4%
– 2006- 7.6% (Preliminary estimated)
– 2007- 7.2% (Preliminary estimated)
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
Why Trade?
TRAINING NETWORK
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
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Why Trade?
Cont
• Trade barriers removal during 1990’s
increased growth by 2.5% year
• In 1950 merchandize exports were 8% of
world GDP
• In 2002 they were 19% of world GDP.
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
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• Trade represents:
– A lot of goods and services
– A lot of money
– And a lot of jobs
10
Growth of World Output,
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2003 to 2007 (forecast)
TRAINING NETWORK
9
8
7
2003
6
2004
5
2005
4
2006
3
2007
2
1
0
World Developed Developing South-East
countries countries Europe and CIS
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GDP growth in developing countries,
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
2003 to 2007 (forecast) Cont
Growth rates are high in all developing regions, supported by
net exports and domestic demand.
9
8
7 2003
6
2004
5
2005
4
2006
3
2 2007
1
0
Africa Latin America West Asia East and South
and the Asia
Caribbean
12
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
Terms of trade of developing regions
(Index numbers, 2000=100)
Gains from the terms of
trade supported economic
growth in West Asia, Africa
and Latin America.
Strong expansion in the
volume of exports
compensated for
deteriorating terms of trade
in East and South Asia.
13
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
What is a Theory?
• Like a map
• Gives us a general idea, focusing on key
relationships
• Real world detail is too complex, and can’t
be described completely—theory ignores
it.
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TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
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TRAINING NETWORK
Comparative Advantage
17
Consequences of the
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Ricardian Model
• In this model there are always gains from trade,
but it says nothing about winners and losers
within each country.
• Countries always specialize in production—
exporting and importing the same product on
balance is logically impossible.
• Although simple, the theory is supported by
empirical evidence—countries tend to export
goods where they have high productivity relative
to other countries.
18
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TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
19
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
The
Hecksher-Ohlin Theory
The Neoclassical theory of international trade was
developed independently by two economists in the
1930s. It is also known as the “Hecksher-Ohlin Theory”
or sometimes the “Factor Proportions Theory.”
The H-O theory is the basic 2 x 2 model of international
trade.
20
The Hecksher-Ohlin
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
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Theory Cont
A country will export the good whose
production requires the intensive use of
the country’s relatively abundant and
cheap factor and import the good whose
production requires the intensive use of
the country’s relatively scare and
expensive factor.
21
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
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Prediction
22
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
Factor Endowments
TRAINING NETWORK
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Inputs
• Inputs are necessary to the creation of all
goods and services.
• The three most important inputs are land,
capital, and labour.
24
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
The Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson
Theorem
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TRADE POLICY
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SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
Rybczynski Theorem
27
The 20th Century Models
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—Summary
• Theory draws conclusions not only about gains from
trade across countries, but also winners and losers within
countries.
• Predicts large income distribution consequences from
trade—the owners of the abundant factor of production
gain.
• These insights why stakeholders behave as they do, e.g.
why unskilled labor in the US fears opening up of trade
with Asia.
• But the empirical evidence is mixed—the simpler
Ricardian model does as good or better a job explaining
actual trade patterns.
28
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK
Modern developments
• Economies of scale give rise to gains from trade
through specializing, even if countries have similar
factor endowments.
29
SOUTH EAST ASIA
TRADE POLICY
TRAINING NETWORK Economies of Scale
30
Income Similarity
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Trade and Developing
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TRADE POLICY
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Countries
comparative advantage
• Invest in education and training
• Invest in infrastructure
• Increase research and development
• Use fiscal and monetary policies to reduce
inflation, increase economic and political
stability, etc.
33
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Implications
34