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The reason behind this action is that Mr Trump says he wants to stop the "unfair transfers of
American technology and intellectual property to China" and protect jobs. The US’s new trade
barriers are designed to penalize China for doing things like forcing foreign businesses to hand
over their most prized technology to Chinese companies — many of which are state-owned — in
exchange for access to their market.
Tariffs, in theory, will make US-made products cheaper than imported ones, so encourage
consumers to buy American. The idea is they would boost local businesses and support the
national economy.
The US is targeting high-tech Chinese goods to put economic pressure on Beijing’s “Made in
China 2025” program — a Chinese government initiative to transform China into an advanced
manufacturing powerhouse.
2) China
China responded the first tariff action by imposing 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion worth of
US goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and lobsters.
China has deliberately targeted big US agricultural exports like soybeans that come from states
in the heart of Trump country, where neither the president nor his party want to see economic
instability or job losses right before the 2018 midterm elections.
3) Overall
January US and China hold 2-day trade talks in Washington D.C. China offers to buy five million
30-31, 2019 tons of US soybeans.
–
February The US and China hold trade talks in Beijing.
11-15, 2019
February US and China hold trade talks in Washington. Trump extends tariff deadline
21-24, 2019
FORCAST
Multiple rounds of talks have taken place between trade representatives from the two countries in
Washington DC and Beijing, and hopes for an imminent settlement are increasing. A 90-day
trade ceasefire has now been indefinitely postponed by President Trump who announced that he
expects a visit from President Xi in March to finalize a trade deal. Here are some predictions for
the end of the trade war between China and America:
1) Trump and Xi will agree on a trade deal that forestalls further tariffs.
The two sides are actively engaged in negotiating terms of a settlement. A final deal may well
include substantial concessions from Beijing. Even so, the trade math hasn’t changed. There’s
virtually no way China can buy enough American soybeans, jets, or natural gas to achieve
Trump’s goal of reducing the Chinese surplus to zero. And it remains unlikely Beijing will
commit to specific verifiable targets for measuring China’s performance in protecting U.S.
intellectual property rights.
2) China’s leaders will tighten their grip on China’s technology sector, obliging public and
private tech firms to prioritize governance and regulatory compliance over growth and
innovation. Beijing recently ended a months-long clampdown on new online games. But China’s
old policy of benign neglect for disruptive technologies is over. In recent months, the state has
expanded censorship of the Internet, imposed new restrictions on tech companies’ involvement
in financial services, stepped up oversight of ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing, and demanded
more patriotic content from Beijing Bytedance’s Toutiao news aggregator. The Chinese scientist
who boasted late last year of making genetically edited babies has been detained.
3) China’s economy will continue to slow, its debt to GDP ratio will grow and its
domestic stock markets will languish. Martin Wolf, in a recent column, makes the case
that China, like 1980s Japan, could fall victim to “ultra-high investment and rapid debt
accumulation.”
4) Cross-border investment between the U.S. and China won’t return to past highs ,
thanks in no small part to the new Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act
approved by Congress last August.
5) Huawei Technology will have to fish or cut bait on a strategy for gaining entry to the
U.S. market. In a rare meeting with global press last month, Ken Hu, one of Huawei’s
four deputy co-chairmen, challenged officials from the U.S. and its allies to document
claims that the world’s biggest telecommunications manufacturer poses a cyber -security
threat. But those perceptions are unlikely to change—and Huawei unlikely to participate
in 5G rollouts in some of the world’s most important markets—unless the company’s
leaders do something more than just fulminate about how unfairly they’re being treated.
Recommendation for VN
Although The White House has extended the tariff deadline, Investors still can stop
wandering about the future because of the unstable changes in the past 7 months.
Vietnam with a stable politics and growth rate has been a great destination for foreign
investors, especially from Japan. Therefore, the Vietnamese central and local governments
should adopt a more selective policy in attracting FDI. The local governments should closely
scrutinize and reject investment projects that show signs of rerouting and disguising practices.
However, we are worried that these suggestions cannot be effectively enforced due to legal
barriers and the short-term thinking of local officials. Furthermore, Hanoi may not want to be
criticized by Beijing for specifically targeting Chinese investors.
Vietname should act more decisively against pollution-intensive investments through more
stringent environmental requirements and enforcements. This is an urgent issue that the
government should not neglect—the negative impacts on citizens’ health can be serious and can
worsen Vietnamese citizens’ negative attitudes towards Chinese investors.
To help domestic producers compete with Chinese and US’s exports of food and agricultural
goods, the Vietnamese government needs to be more proactive in helping domestic companies,
especially SMEs, to access capital and promote Vietnamese high-quality brands. Stringent food
safety requirements and promotion of safe and high-quality agricultural products can be effective
solutions in this endeavour.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/6/17542482/china-trump-trade-war-tariffs
http://fortune.com/2019/01/04/data-sheet-china-predictions-trade-war/
https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_74@50.pdf
https://customsnews.vn/how-does-the-us-china-trade-war-affect-the-exchange-rate-and-trade-of-
vietnam-8777.html