See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/268224059

Hydropower Potential in Pakistan

Conference Paper · October 2014

DOI: 10.13140/2.1.3285.2160

CITATIONS READS

2 8,194

2 authors:

Fassahat Qureshi Bertug Akintug

11 PUBLICATIONS   24 CITATIONS   
Middle East Technical University
16 PUBLICATIONS   64 CITATIONS   
SEE PROFILE
SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Flood Modeling and Management for Nicosia, Cyprus. View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Fassahat Qureshi on 14 November 2014.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Hydropower Potential in Pakistan

F. U. Qureshi1, B. Akıntuğ2
1
Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems Graduate Program,
Middle East Technical University – Northern Cyprus Campus, Güzelyurt (N. Cyprus), Mersin 10, Turkey.
e-mail: fassahat.qureshi@metu.edu.tr
2
Civil Engineering Program,
Middle East Technical University – Northern Cyprus Campus, Güzelyurt (N. Cyprus), Mersin 10, Turkey.
e-mail: bertug@metu.edu.tr

Abstract
Water and energy are the prime needs of human beings living on the earth. The burning of fossil fuels for the
production of electricity releases vast amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere due to which
global warming and sea level are on the rise and has eventually caused the human civilization to suffer. Water
resources can be used for irrigation purpose and also be utilized to produce electricity in the form of hydropower.
Though Pakistan is deficient in oil and gas but it has a vast potential of hydropower, coal, wind, and solar energy
resources. It is estimated that Pakistan has hydropower potential of about 60,000 MW but only 11% of it is
utilized for the production of electricity and the remaining potential is still untapped. According to the data
analyzed in this paper, the share of hydropower can become more than 40% and indigenous energy resources as
a whole can contribute up to 80.7% in the supply mix for electricity production in Pakistan by the year 2030. At
the same time the share of oil and gas which is currently more than 64% can be reduced to 11.8% percent which
is favorable for the sustainable development of the country.

Keywords: Hydropower potential, Sustainable Development, Water, Energy, Pakistan.

1 Introduction
Energy which is often known as the catalyst of socioeconomic development as per capita energy consumption, is
used as barometer to know the development of the state in all important aspects. As the world electricity demand
is growing at an enormous pace of 93% in next 30 years, increasing from 20.2 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2010 to
39 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2040, the role of hydropower resources will be very important, since they will be
major source of renewable energy in the future (US Energy Information Administration [US-EIA], 2013). Figure
1 shows the world net renewable electricity production in 2010 which was 4175 billion kilowatt-hours. In this
figure, we can easily recognize the importance of hydropower representing more than 80 percent of world net
renewable electricity production in 2010. So the global importance of hydropower industry cannot be denied in
the present world. It is a fact that significance of hydropower plants is increasing in the world as the burning of
fossil fuels is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere which is not sustainable for the
environment and human beings.

1
ACE2014

0.81% Hydropower (3402

7.95%
1.59% billion kWh)
8.19%
Wind (342 billion kWh)

Geothermal (66 billion

81.48% kWh)
Solar (34 billion kWh)

Other (332 billion kWh)

Figure 1. World renewable net electricity production in 2010 (US-EIA, 2013).

Pakistan is facing severe energy crises nowadays, particularly electricity crises, because the gap between its
demand and supply has been increased significantly in the past several years. In the past era of 1960s,
hydropower, one of the most important indigenous resource, was used to produce electricity in Pakistan and its
contribution towards electricity production was almost 70%. But nowadays its share has reduced to 30% as the
country is mainly dependent upon fossil fuels to meet its electricity requirements which is not good for the
sustainable development of the country (Muneer and Asif, 2007).

Various studies have been done to examine the role of hydropower using various approaches in different parts of
the world. For example, Yüksel, (2010) examined the role of hydropower for water and sustainable energy
development and described water potential and dams in Turkey. Similarly, Bhutto, et al., (2012) described
regional development of hydel energy and then reported hydropower in Pakistan electricity sector. On the other
hand, Paish, (2002) analyzed the role of small hydropower, its technology and current status and outlined the
barriers to small hydropower development projects in Europe. At another instance Siddiqi et al., (2012) carried
out an empirical analysis for hydropower portfolio in Pakistan. The review of literature highlights many
important points. Firstly, the hydropower is one of the most important and sustainable renewable energy source
for electricity production. Secondly, the role of both large and small scale hydropower projects should be
examined with equal importance because small scale hydropower like run-off river projects have a minimum
impact on ecological services as compared to large dams which are sometimes not good for environment.
Finally, public acceptance and water politics play an important role in the development of hydropower projects
in any region of the world. One important gap found in literature was that no one analyzed the future projects of
Pakistan with respect to its potential and developed a sustainable energy mix model for electricity production
which is mainly studied in this paper.

The paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, the potential analysis of both large scale and small scale future
projects of Pakistan is given. In Section 3, we presented diversified and sustainable supply mix model for
electricity production in Pakistan in which Hydropower plays a dominant role. In Section 4, the main
conclusions of the paper are given.

2 Potential Analysis of Hydropower Resources in Pakistan

There is a significant hydropower potential in Pakistan. Many projects have been deployed in the past to utilize
this potential but still most of the hydropower sites has not been developed yet. The total installed capacity of
hydropower resources until 2010 was 6,720 MW (Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan [MOF-GOP],
2013) which is only 11% of the total hydropower potential of Pakistan because the total proved hydropower
potential of Pakistan is 60,000 MW (Water and Power Development Authority [WAPDA], 2013). Figure 2
presents categorization of hydropower potential in terms of available basins, rivers, and small hydel potential
sites available in the country. The Indus River Basin contains almost 75% of all hydropower potential in
Pakistan.

In Figure 3, we can see several regions of Pakistan like Sindh, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa etc. and the
location of dams and rivers in these regions.

2
 F. U. Qureshi, B. Akıntuğ

3.80%
7.70%
Indus River basin
(44334 MW)
Jehlum River basin
13.60%
(8027 MW)
Swat and Chitral
River (4582 MW)
74.90%
Small Hydel (2208
MW)

Figure 2. Distribution of hydropower potential in Pakistan (WAPDA, 2013).

Figure 3. Hydel Map of Pakistan (OOSKAnews, 2012).

2.1 Large Scale Hydropower Projects in Pakistan and Their Respective Potential
The history related with the construction of large scale hydropower projects in Pakistan starts with the Indus
water treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 (WAPDA, 2013). From Table 1, it can be seen that a lot
of feasibility studies and engineering design work has been carried out to explore the hydropower potential in
Pakistan. In order to save the country from the significant shortfall of electricity, the only need is to implement
these mega projects for the sustainable production of the electricity in the future. Pakistan is facing severe and
worst ever electricity crises nowadays with a shortfall of almost 6,000 MW in the year 2011-2012 as the demand
was 18,876 MW and supply remained 12,775 MW (MOF-GOP, 2013). By deploying all these projects enlisted
in Table 1, the electricity production of the country can be increased to a vast amount which is good for both
industrial, commercial, and agriculture sectors of the country. On the other hand, since hydropower does not
defile or consume water to generate electricity, it leaves this important available resource for other uses as well.
Besides electricity production, hydropower dams support other essential water services such as flood control and
irrigation services.

3
ACE2014

Table 1. Large Scale Hydropower projects of Pakistan that are under implementation or can be taken under
consideration till 2030 ( WAPDA, 2013)

No Name of Project Installed Capacity (MW)

1 Neelum Jhelum AJK 969
2 Diamar Basha -Diamar/Kohistan 4500
3 Bunji-Astore 7100
4 Dasu-Kohistan 4320

5 Terbela.4th Extension-Swabi 1400

6 Munda-Muhamend Agency 740
7 Lower Spat-Gah Kohistan 496
8 Lower Palas Valley Kohistan 665
9 Patan 2800
10 Thakot 2800
11 Kheyal Khawar –KPK 122
12 Golen Gol Project-KPK 106
th
13 Tarbela.5 Extension Swabi 500
14 Akhori Dam- Punjab 600
15 Yulbu dam 2800
16 Shyok (Yugo) Project 520
17 Skardu Dam Project 1600
18 Tungus Hydropower Project 2200
19 Dudhnial Hydropower Project 960
20 Suki-Kinari Hydropower Project 840
21 Kundal Shahi Hydropower Project 700
22 Rajdhani Hydropower 132
23 Mahl Hydropower Project 600
24 Kala Bagh Dam 3800
Total: 41270

2.2 Small Scale Hydropower Resources in Pakistan and Their Respective Potential
As environmental scientists are also concerned about the hydropower development and their impact on local
fishery and riverine ecosystems, small hydropower development provides the best alternative solution having no
carbon emissions and negligible environmental footprint. There is no fixed international definition of small
hydropower. The limit of small hydropower varies in the world. In China, the limit for small hydropower is 25
MW (Bartle, 2002). A different classification is found in Balat, (2006) where small hydropower varies between
500 kW and 50 MW. In Pakistan many small hydropower exists and are now in operation. It can be seen from
Table 2 that there is a small scale hydropower potential of 868 MW in Pakistan.

4
 F. U. Qureshi, B. Akıntuğ

Table 2. Small scale hydel power projects of Pakistan that are under implementation process (MOF-GOP, 2013).

Region/Regions Responsible Stakeholder No. of Installed Capacity

Projects (MW)
Punjab Government of Punjab Pakistan 10 142
Punjab AEDB* Pakistan 30 240
Punjab Government of Pakistan 5 24
Gilgit Baltistan Government of Pakistan 2 30
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa AEDB Pakistan 22 92
Punjab, KPK, AK&K, Sindh AEDB Pakistan 25 284
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government of Pakistan 3 56
Total: 868

* AEDB: Alternative Energy Development Board

3 Hydro-power as a Sustainable Energy Resource for Electricity Production in Pakistan

Government of Pakistan has made a long term plan to ensure the energy security of the country with major
emphasis on indigenous energy resources. In this plan, all the energy resources are utilized to meet the growing
energy needs of the country. According to this plan 17,400 MW of wind energy, 6,500 MW of solar energy
which includes solar thermal, on grid and off grid solar are included in the total supply mix of the country at any
cost till the year 2022-2023 (MOF-GOP, 2009). For the production of nuclear power, government has mandated
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission for the production of 8,800 MW capacities by the year 2030 (MOF-GOP,
2013). Pakistan has about 100,000 MW of coal potential but unfortunately it is utilizing only a small percentage
of indigenous coal due to lack of modern technology and the country import coal to meet its energy needs.
Therefore, the energy expert group of Pakistan has set a target to utilize 14,000 MW of coal till 2030 (MOF-
GOP, 2009). System demand is expected to grow from 25,919 MW in 2013-14 to 84,832 MW in 2029-30 which
is a huge demand and current energy mix which is mainly dependent upon oil and gas will certainly fail to fulfil
this huge system demand in the future (National Transmission and Dispatch Company Limited, Pakistan, 2008).
Figure 4 shows the projection of all energy supply mix potential if all the projects discussed in this paper are
deployed. From Figure 4 and 5(a), we can see that all the energy resources can generate a gross installed capacity
of 118,268 MW of power in the year 2030 in which hydropower has 40.5% share and indigenous energy
resources of Pakistan as a whole represents 80.7% and the share of oil and gas is reduced only to 11.8% as
compared to the Figure 5(b) which shows the total gross installed capacity in 2010 was only 20,932 MW of
Pakistan in which oil and gas has 66.80%.

60000
Hydropower (MW)
50000 47990
Wind
Solar (MW)
40000
Indigeneous Coal (MW)
MW

30000 Cross Border Power Trade Projects (MW)

17400 Nuclear (MW)

20000
14000 13978
Small Hydel (MW)
10000 6500 7100 8800 Waste to Energy (MW)
1000 1500
Oil and gas (MW)
0
Different Energy Sources

Figure 4. : Projected gross installed capacity of different energy sources that will contribute in 2030
(Total: 118,268 MW).

5
 ACE2014

Oil and gas 2.20%,

11.84% Nuclear
Nuclear
7.45%
Cross Power Hydropower
Trade 40.48% 30.97%,
6.01% Hydropower
Biomass
1.27% 66.80%,
Oil,gas,coal
Wind and
14.74% imported
Indigeneous
Solar Small Hydel coal
5.51% 0.85% 11.86%

(a) Projected percentage of different fuel shares (b) Percentage of fuel shares for 2010 (Hydrocarbon
for the year 2030 Development Institute of Pakistan, 2010)
Figure 5: Comparison between projected gross installed capacity of diversified model for the year 2030 and
gross installed capacity of 2010 for Pakistan.

4 Conclusion

This study investigates the potential of hydropower in Pakistan and tries to explain that both small scale and
large scale hydropower projects are necessary for the sustainable development in Pakistan. If Pakistan utilizes
the potential of its hydropower and other renewable energy resources, it can get rid of oil import bill and the
problem of electricity crises can be resolved at the same time. Some of the ecosystem services are disturbed by
the construction of large hydropower projects but still it is largely carbon free, cheap, and reliable source of
producing electricity and considered better than fossil fuels. The passage towards the sustainable energy future in
Pakistan is very complex and complicated but a solution obviously exists. In this regard, diversified and
indigenous energy mix for electricity production can present the best possible solution where hydropower can be
the major source of electricity production for the energy starved country like Pakistan.

References

Balat, M. (2006). Hydropower Systems and Hydropower Potential in the European Union Countries. Energy
Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 28(10), 965–978.
doi:10.1080/00908310600718833.
Bartle, A. (2002). Hydropower potential and development activities. Energy Policy, 30(14), 1231–1239.
doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00084-8.
Bhutto, A. W., Bazmi, A. A., & Zahedi, G. (2012). Greener energy: Issues and challenges for Pakistan-hydel
power prospective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2732–2746.
doi:10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.034.
Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (2010), Pakistan Energy Year Book 2010.
Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan [MOF-GOP] (2013). Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13
(http://finance.gov.pk/survey_1213.html).
Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan [MOF-GOP] (2009). Report of Expert Energy Group Government
of Pakistan, “Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022”.
Muneer, T., and Asif, M. (2007). Prospects for secure and sustainable electricity supply for Pakistan. Renewable
and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11(4), 654–671. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2005.05.001.
National Transmission and Dispatch Company Limited, Pakistan. (2008). Electricity Demand Forecast Based on
Regression Analysis (period 2008 to 2030).
OOSKAnews (2012). Weekly Water Report Southern and Eastern Asia - 27 Jun 2012
(http://www.ooskanews.com/newsletter/southern-eastern-asia/2012-06-27).
Paish, O. (2002). Small hydro power: technology and current status. Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews, 6(6), 537–556. doi:10.1016/S1364-0321(02)00006-0.
Siddiqi, A., Wescoat Jr., J. L., Humair, S., & Afridi, K. (2012). An empirical analysis of the hydropower
portfolio in Pakistan. Energy Policy, 50, 228–241. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.063.
US Energy Information Administration [US-EIA] (2013). International Energy Outlook 2013, With Projections
to 2040. US Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585.
Water and Power Development Authority. (2013). Hydropower potential in Pakistan. Pakistan.
Yüksel, I. (2010). Hydropower for sustainable water and energy development. Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 14(1), 462–469. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.025

View publication stats