9th Joint FAA/DoD/NASA

Conference on Aging Aircraft

Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today
Understanding Our Aging Aircraft Fleets: Deriving Aging
Aircraft Requirements from AF Maintenance Metrics and Data

8 Mar 06
Karl Hart
“Peeling Back the
Alion Science & Technology
Aging Onion!” Requirements Generation Flight
Aging Aircraft Systems Squadron
Agile Combat Support Systems Wing
Wright Patterson AFB OH
 A Continuing Problem
An Aging Fleet, Getting Older
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today

Average Age - Total AF

24
average age has
23
increased from 14
22 years 1982 to over 23
in 2004. This is an
21 increase of about 5
20 months
per year
19
Years

18
17
16
15
14
13
12
82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20
 Average Ages of
Today’s AF Inventory
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today

Average Age by MD, Total AF

45

40
Total AF Avg Age
35 (as of FY04) =
23.2 years
30

25
Years

20

15
TAI Avg Age (Yrs)
10 Active AF 4,266 22.8
ANG 1,221 24.0
5 AFRC 520 24.0
Total AF 6,007 23.2

0
-2

30
0

-1

0
-2

M -5

30

38

37
2

W 53
7

M 1

35

2
35
6

16

15

30

38
-2

-1
-6

-1
11
-1

-2

E-

-5
-
T-

T-

T-

H
-1

-1

T-

-1

-1
T-

T-
F-

F-

-
-1
A
A

C
C

B
H
U
F-

C
C

A
F/

K
 Cross Cutting Analysis
Top Down
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today

• Drivers
• Total AF: • TNMCM Hrs/FH (by 3 digit WUC)
• Active • MMH/FH (by 3 digit WUC)
• Guard • O&M Costs (related to maintenance)
• Reserve
• Analyses:
• Pareto (decreasing order of
Look at ALL occurrence in related measures)
the data for • Trend (behavior of metric over
the real story! period of years)

• Sources:
• AFKS, AFTOC, MERLIN

Summarized results at
total AF level
 Top Down Maintenance
Drivers
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today
TNMC Downtime Hours per FH, Total AF MMH/FH, Total AF O&M Costs by Cost Element, Total AF

Billions
$4.0
16
6
5.9 5.6 Civilian Personnel
5.5 5.5 DLRs
5.1 >100% $3.5 Consumables
AV Fuel
increase 14 Depot Maintenance
5 between FY91 Sustaining Engineering
4.6 4.6 13.0
4.5 12.9 $3.0
4.4 & 4.3FY00
4.4 Software Maintenance
4.4 4.5 12.6
4.2 12.4 Contract Services
4.1 Decrease due to wars
12.0 Other O&M
3.9 3.9 12 in Afghanistan, Iraq
4 3.8 11.8 11.4 $2.5
3.6 3.5 3.5
Downtime Hrs/FH

3.5
3.4 11.2 11.2
3.3

MMH/FH
2.8 2.8 $2.0
3
10
2.6
2.9 2.9 9.1
Decrease due to wars
2.7 8.5
2.7 2.7 Increase due $1.5
2.1 in Afghanistan, Iraq Increase due to
to resolving 7.9
2.3 8 resolving deferred
2 deferred >80% increase
2.1 maintenance
2.2 maintenance 7.4
2.0 2.0 between FY91 -95
1.9 $1.0
1.8 1.8
6.2 avg & FY00
1.4
1 Increase in 6
DLR
5.8 $0.5
TNMC/FH 7.2 average
spending
TNMCM/FH
TNMCS/FH
4 $-
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

Source: AFTOC
SOURCE: MERLIN As Of: Oct 05 SOURCE: AFKS As Of: Oct 05

TNMCM Hrs/FH, Total AF Field MMH/FH, Total AF O&M Costs, Total AF

MMH/FH, Top Drivers, 3-Digit WUC, Total AF Maintenance Related O&M Cost Elements, Total AF

Billions
1.5 $4.0
11% Eeic 644 (DLR, flying hour related)
TNMCM Hrs/FH, Top 10 Drivers, 3-Digit WUC 1.4
Eeic 578 (contractor logistic support)
1.3 $3.5 Eeic 541 (organic aircraft depot maintenance)
0.8 Eeic 543 (organic engine depot maintenance)
1.2
Sorted on FY04 Sorted on FY05
1.1 $3.0
0.7
1.0

0.9
0.6 15% $2.5 Cost Increases Since FY97 :
MMH/FH

0.8 • DLR = 110%

0.7 • CLS = 120%
0.5 2000
TNMCM Hrs/FH

$2.0 • Acft PDM = 105%

0.6 2001
2002
0.4
0.5 2003
3% 2004 $1.5
0.4
2.5% 2005*
0.3 0.3
2000 1.6%
6% 0.2 4%
$1.0
2001
2002
0.2 2003 0.1
3.4% 2004 $0.5
0.0
2.2% 2.2% 041, 034, 037, 032, Thru Flight 11A, Airframe - 091, 031, Preflight 23Z, Turbine 13A, Landing 043, Gun, 115, Airframe -
1.9% Special/Unique Periodic/Phase Major/Minor Inspection Misc Engine/Power Inspection Fan Power Plan Gear Munition Wing/Fuselage
0.1 Insp Insp (ISO, Home Pack Rebuild Assembly Launcher Insp.
Stat.) Insp (F-16) (F-15)
$-
WUC 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-
Periodic/Phase Major/Minor Special/Unique Turbofan Pwr Fuel Sys, 460 Airframe, 110 Unsched Internal Fuel Hourly Post Flt Controls,
Insp, 034 (ISO, Home Insp, 041 Plt, 230 Periodic Insp, System, 46A Insp, 033 140
Station) Insp, 042
037 WUC
As Of: Sep 04 SOURCE: MERLIN As Of: Aug 05
SOURCE: MERLIN
Source: AFTOC

TNMCM Hrs/FH vs. 3 Digit WUC Field MMH/FH vs. 3 Digit WUC Aging Related O&M Costs,
Total AF
 Cost (DLR) vs. Availability (TNMCS)
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today
Maintenance Related O&M Cost Elements, Total AF
Billions

$4.0
Eeic 644 (DLR, flying hour related)
Eeic 578 (contractor logistic support)
$3.5 Eeic 541 (organic aircraft depot maintenance)
Eeic 543 (organic engine depot maintenance)

$3.0

…appears to have
$2.5
resulted in flattened and
$2.0
eventual decreasing
$1.5 TNMCS trend!
$1.0
TNMCM, TNMCS Rates
25%
$0.5

$-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200320% 2004

15%

Sharp
increase in 10%

DLR funding… Down

5%
is TNMCM Rate
TNMCS Rate
good!
0%
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
Fiscal Year (1,2 Qtr)
 Total AF TNMC Downtime
TNMC Downtime Hours per FH, Total AF
>100%
6 increase
5.9 5.6
5.5 5.5 between
5.1 FY91 & FY00
5
4.6 4.6
4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4
4.4 4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9 3.9
4 3.8
Downtime Hrs/FH

3.6 3.5 3.5

3.5
3.3 3.4
Decrease due to
2.8 w ars in Increase
2.8 due to
3 Afghanistan, Iraq
2.6 resolv ing
2.9 2.9 deferred
2.7 2.7 2.7 maintenance
2.1
2.3
2 2.1 2.2
2.0 Increase in
2.0
1.9
DLR 1.8 1.8
spending
1.4
1
TNMC/FH
TNMCM/FH
TNMCS/FH
0
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
 TNMCM per FH, Total AF
TNMCM Downtime Hrs per FH, Total AF
25
F-22
B-2
F-117 TNMCM hrs/FH
AT-38
F-16
trends appear to be
F-15 (A-D) complexity issue
20 T-38
A-10
B-52
instead of aging
B-1
F-15E
issue!
Total AF
C-5
TNMCM Hrs/FH

C-130
15 KC-135
C-141
C-9
T-1
T-37
T-43
T-6
KC-10
10 C-17

0
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
 TNMCM per FH, Total AF
TNMCM/FH, Total AF, Fighters
12
A-10
AT-38
F-117
10 F-15 (A-D)
F-15E
F-16
Total Inventory Avg
8
TNMCM/FH

6
Fighters are at or
above Total AF avg.
4

2
TNMCM/FH, Total AF, Bombers
20
0 B-1
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
18 B-2

B-52
16 Total Inventory
Avg

14

12
TNMCM/FH

10
Bombers are at or 8
above Total AF avg.
6

0
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
 TNMCM per FH, Total AF
TNMCM/FH, Total AF, Trainers
12
Total Inventory Avg
T-1
T-6
10 T-37
T-38
T-43

8
TNMCM/FH

6
Trainers are below Total
AF avg. (except T-38)
4

2
TNMCM/FH, Total AF, Cargo/Tankers
14
C-5
0
C-9
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03
12 FY04 C-130
C-141
C-17

10 KC-10
KC-135
Total Inventory Avg
TNMCM/FH

Cargo, tankers are at or 6

below Total AF avg.

4

0
FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
 A-10
Maintenance Drivers
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today

A-10 TNMCM Hrs per FH, Top 12 Drivers, 5-Digit WUC A-10 O&M Maintenance Cost Drivers A-10 Top Depot Tasks in FY07 MRRB
$300
1.0

Millions
3,000
Sorted on WUC DESCRIPTION EEIC 541 = Aircraft Depot Maintenance
2004 Data 0341A PHASE 1 INSPECTION EEIC 543 = Engine Depot Maintenance
0.9 0341B PHASE 2 INSPECTION EEIC 578 = Contractor Logistic Support
04210 FCTNL CHK FLT

Max Approved Manhours per Depot Aircraft

EEIC 583 = Sustaining Engineering
75A00 GUN SYSTEM 30MM $250 EEIC 592 = Miscellaneous Contractor Support
2,500
23C00 TURBO FAN ENGINE
0.8 EEIC 644 = DLR
46A00 FUEL TANK INSTALL
55D00 TURBINE ENG MONITOR SYS - TEMS
23A00 FITTING,FWD UPPER ENGINE MOUNT
0.7 04112 ACCEPTANCE INSP 2,000
$200
TNMCM Hrs/FH

0.6

Cost (AFTOC)
TNMCM per Flying Hr EEIC 644** 1,500
0.5 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 EEIC 541**
$150
A-10 5.8 6.0 4.9 4.7 5.1 EEIC 592**
EEIC 583**
EEIC 578**
0.4 EEIC 543** 1,000

2000 $100
0.3
2001
2002 500
0.2 2003
2004 $50
0.1
-
1B19, HOG UP WING 1B19, SLEP WING 1B24, SCHEDULED 1B25, SCHEDULED 1B10, PLASTIC MEDIA 1B18, REFURBISHMENT
REPLACEMENT, 2006 REPLACEMENT, 2007+ STRUCTURAL STRUCTURAL BLAST AND PAINT, 2006+ FLT CONTROL
0.0 INSPECTION (THIN) INSPECTION (THICK) BELLCRANKS, 2006+
$-
0341A 0341B 04210 75A00 23C00 46A00 55D00 23A00 04112
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: MERLIN 5-Digit WUC Source: FY07 MRRB Task # and Subject

TNMCM Hrs/FH vs. 5 Digit WUC Maintenance Related O&M Costs Depot MMH

A-10 MMH/FH, Top 12 Drivers, 5-Digit WUC A-10 Top Commodities Cost Drivers, FY03 A-10 MRRB Hours per Depot Aircraft
1.2 $25 6,000
Millions

Sorted on Master_NSN SRDNoun Noun NetQty Net

2004 Data WUC DESCRIPTION
0341B PHASE 2 INSPECTION
2840014609054 TF34GE100A ROTOR,TURBINE,AIRCRAFT GAS TUR 85 $19,568,198.61
0341A PHASE 1 INSPECTION 2840014268020 TF34GE100A ROTOR,COMPRESSOR,AIRCRAFT GAS 110 $16,469,818.20
23C00 TURBOFAN ENGINE
1.0 04199 NOC
2840014639465 TF34GE100A ROTOR,TURBINE,AIRCRAFT GAS TUR 61 $14,039,752.07
5,000
09000 SHOP SPPT GEN CODES
$20 1650010696588 A-10A DRIVE,CONSTANT SPEED,HYDRAULIC 293 $8,174,443.73
04186 GUN SYSTEM INSPECTION 2840014268635 TF34GE100A CASE,COMPRESSOR,AIRCRAFT GAS T 84 $7,533,849.80
04180 CHKS SPEC CHK EQUIP
03220 7 DAY INSPECTION 2840005957328 TF34GE100A ROTOR,TURBINE,AIRCRAFT GAS TUR 100 $7,333,283.00
74CA0 DETECTOR,LASER ILLUM TARGET 6615010213681 A-10A GYROSCOPE,DISPLACEMENT 191 $3,760,472.94

Manhours per Depot Aircraft

11A99 NOC
0.8 2915013647174 TF34GE100A CONTROL,FUEL MAIN 125 $3,687,426.25
75FD0 TRIPPLE EJECTOR RACK TER9A
4,000
01000 GROUND HANDLING AND SERVICE 6610010996186 A-10A COMPUTER,AIR DATA 173 $3,628,437.22
$15 1270010109119 AAS-35(V1) GIMBAL ASSEMBLY,DET 259 $3,627,737.72
MMH/FH

Net Cost

0.6
3,000

2000 Trend
2001 $10
0.4 2002
2003 2,000
2004

$5
0.2
1,000

-
$0
0341B 0341A 23C00 04199 09000 04186 04180 03220 74CA0 11A99 75FD0 01000 ROTOR, TURBINE, ROTOR, ROTOR, TURBINE, DRIVE, CONSTANT CASE, ROTOR, TURBINE, GYROSCOPE, CONTROL, FUEL COMPUTER, AIR GIMBAL -
AIRCRAFT GAS COMPRESSOR, AIRCRAFT GAS SPEED, COMPRESSOR, AIRCRAFT GAS DISPLACEMENT MAIN DATA ASSEMBLY, DET
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
5-Digit WUC Source: AFTOC
TUR AIRCRAFT GAS TUR HYDRAULIC AIRCRAFT GAS T TUR

Source: MERLIN Source: FY07 MRRB

Field MMH/FH vs. 5 Digit WUC Commodity Costs PDM Task MMH
 A-10 Maintenance Driver Summary
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today
Summary by Metric:
• TNMCM – 2 main drivers
• Phase 1 inspections – FY04 hours highest in last 3 years
• Phase 2 inspections – hours decreasing over last 5 years
• MMH – 5 main top MMH drivers
• Phase 1 & 2 inspections – hours increasing over last 5 years
• Turbofan engine maintenance – hours increasing over last 5 years
• Special inspection – steady
• General shop support code – hours decreasing
• O&M Cost – 2 main drivers, both steadily increasing costs
• DLRs – engines top commodity cost drivers in FY03
• Aircraft depot maintenance
• Depot Manhours
• Steady increases – SLEP, structural inspections high drivers in FY07

Analysis Summary:
• Field and depot level inspections to decrease inspection times and frequency
• Metal repair to restore and extend structural fatigue life
• Long term large DLR cost growth trend, recent PDM cost increases
 Impacts to Warfighter
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today
PDM Flowdays Aircraft in PDM

Aircraft
Mission Availability
Capability Rates
Aging
Mission Capable Rate (%)

86
84
Today
82
80
78
76 Life
Aircraft
74

Cycle Costs
72
70
68
66

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0910 11

Metrics
Year

Flight Safety FRY IADS

SA-3

Mission
ADOC SA-3
SA-3
SOCs
IOCs SA-3 SA-3

Effectiveness SAMs
ADOC-SOC
SOC-IOC
SA-3
ADOC
SA-6
IOC-SAM SA-6
SA-6

Strategic Airlift Capacity

50

40
MTM/Day

30

20

10

0
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8
Fiscal Year
Acft 1 Acft 2 Acft 3 Acft 4 Acft 5 Acft 6 Acft 7 Acft 8

Bombs on Target Fuel Delivery Cargo Delivery Threats Detected

• ACC • AMC • AMC • AFSOC

Warfighting Capability
 What You Can Do:
Dominant Air Power: Design for Tomorrow…Deliver Today

• Ensure maintenance and supply data are

accurate and complete
• Quantify needs and deficiencies in terms of
how sustainment impacts your mission
“If you don't keep score,
you're only practicing”
Vince Lombardi
Taken from AMC Strategic Plan 2000