SIMPLE PROBABILITY

A real life example

Victorian numbers plates usually have 3 letters and 3
numbers. What would happen if they consisted of
only 6 numbers eg 1,2,3,4,5,6?
• Learning Intention
- To understand the language of simple
probability

- Success Criteria
- I understand the language of simple
probability
 Simple Probability
Explicit Vocabulary
-an outcome is a particular result of an experiment
-A favourable outcome is one that we are looking
for
-The theoretical probability of a particular result is
defined as
Pr = number of favourable outcomes
number of possible outcomes
- An ordered pair (a,b) displays the result of a two
step experiment.
- A two way table sets the pairs out logically
 Worked Example
Tom rolls a fair 6-sided die.
a. What are all the possible results that could be obtained?
b. What is the probability of obtaining : The number 4?
There are 6 outcomes- 1,2,3,4,5,6. These are all the possible results.
THINK Write
1. Write the number of possible outcomes.
4 occurs once. Write the number of number of possible outcomes = 6
possible outcomes.
2. Write the rule for probability p(event) = number of favourable outcomes
Number of possible outcomes
3. Substitute the known values into
the rule and evaluate. P(4) = 1/6
4. Answer the question.
The probability of obtaining a 4 is 1/6
- What is the probability of obtaining a number
greater than 2?
THINK
1. Write the number of favourable
and possible outcomes.
Greater than 2 is 3,4,5,6
2. Write the rule for probability
3. Substitute the known values into
the rule and evaluate.
4. Answer the question.
Write
Number of favourable outcomes = 4
Number of possible outcomes = 6
p(greater than 2) = 4
6
P(greater than 2) = 2/3
The probability of obtaining a number greater
than 2 is 2/3
What is the probability of obtaining an odd number?

THINK Write
1. Write the number of favourable Number of favourable outcomes = 3
and possible outcomes. Number of possible outcomes = 6
odd number is 1,3,5

2. Write the rule for probability

3. Substitute the known values into p(Odd number) = 3
the rule and evaluate. 6
4. Answer the question. P(odd number) = 1/2
The probability of an odd number is ½ or 50%
 Using a table to show sample space
• Some experiments take 2 steps/stages
eg toss 2 coins, or roll a die and toss a coin etc

When we write this outcome it is written as an

ordered pair
Eg pair (H,6) would correspond to getting a head
on the coin and a 6 on the die
 A worked problem - In table form

a. Draw a table to show the sample space for

tossing a coin and rolling a die.
b. How many outcomes are possible?
c. Determine the probability of obtaining
i) A head
ii) A tail and an even number
iii) A 5
iv) A tail and a number greater than 2
 Head Tail
1 H1 T1
2 H2 T2
3 H3 T3
4 H4 T4
5 H5 T5
6 H6 T6

A. THE SAMPLE SPACE FOR TOSSING A COIN AND ROLLING A DIE IS:
(H,1), (H,2), (H,3), (H,4), (H,5), (H,6), (T,1), (T,2), (T,3), (T,4), (T,5),(T,6)

B THERE ARE 12 DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

C (I) Getting a head

Favourable outcomes = 6 Possible outcomes = 12

Rule is P(Event) = number of favourable outcomes = 6/12 = 1/2 = 50

number of possible outcomes

P(head) = 50%
C (ii) a tail and an even number
Number of favourable outcomes = 3
Number of possible outcomes = 12

P(tail and an even number) = 3/12 = 1/4 = 25%

C(iii) a 5
Number of favourable outcomes = 2
Number of possible outcomes 12

P(5) =2/12 = 1/6

C(iv) a tail and a number greater than 2

Number of favourable outcomes 4
Number of passible outcomes is 12
P(tail and a number greater than 2) = 4/12 = 1/3
Experimental Probability versus Actual
Probability
• The more times an experiment is performed
the closer the average of the results will be to
the expected answer
• So the long term trend from a large number of
trials will show that the experimental
probability will match those of the theoretical
probability
 Let’s try it by tossing a coin 10 times
Draw a tally table in your books like this
Experiment Heads Heads Tails Tails
number
Tally Count Tally Count

Total Total
After the first round:
What is the probability of getting a head?
What is the probability of getting a tail?
How do these values compare with the
theoretical results?

Now toss the coin for another 5 rounds

How does the combined result compare with

the theoretical result?
 NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

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Probability questions.
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